狠狠撸

狠狠撸Share a Scribd company logo

Nifty technical outlook(vol 7) dbfs securities ltd

?
?
Rethish Varma
Rethish Varma

The document provides a technical analysis of the Nifty 50 index by Doha Brokerage and Financial Services. It predicts that: 1) The Nifty will remain mostly below 6000 levels for the rest of the year due to political instability and a weak economy. 2) Upside will be capped at 5970 levels, as this was a resistance level the index failed to close above previously. 3) The index may see a minor pullback or short covering rally to 5660 or 5720 levels, but fresh short positions are expected to pile on at these levels, pushing prices lower again.

1 of 3
Download to read offline
DBFS INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES DOHA BROKERAGE INDIA / INDICES / NSE NIFTY Research Analyst Rethish Varma.S ib@dbfsindia.com +91 022 30279043 / 44 April 09, 2013 More downside for the Nifty Nifty - Technical Outlook Markets mostly to remain below 6000 levels for the remaining year! In our last technical report dated 01st March 2013 we had clearly indicated that we are in for a correction that could take Nifty all the way towards 5450 levels. However based on the current political instability prevailing in the country coupled with a weak internal and external economic climate, we expect the weakness to continue with Nifty trading mostly below 6000 levels for the remaining calendar year. Last 1 year chart of NSE Nifty (Data as on 05/04/2013 closing) associate of DOHA BANK associate of DOHA BANK Technical Outlook Technically, the chart structure clearly shows a prevailing bearish sentiment in the markets. For the remaining period of the year, we expect upside for the Nifty to be capped around 5970 levels. This was a major Resistance level that we have tested many times and failed to get a closing above that level during all of our previous pull backs. The momentum indicators in our view, reveal that the market is quite oversold, which could possibly lead to some sort of a minor pull backs/short covering pitching the Nifty towards 5660 or even up to 5720 levels. We expect fresh short positions to pile up around these technical levels and thereby selling pressure may re-emerge. High risk short term traders can utilize the current lows to take long positions in Nifty Futures anticipating a 100 to 150 point pull back and then again going short at the above mentioned technical levels of 5660 and 5720. As further downside in the nifty could be expected for the medium term (around 5350 levels), we recommend our investors to refrain from building fresh long positions at these levels though the markets may seem appealing on a strict valuation perspective. Page 1
DOHA BROKERAGE April 09, 2013 Analyst Certification I Rethish Varma.S, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or view expressed in this research report. Disclaimers & Disclosures This research report provides general information only. Recommendations, opinions or suggestions are given with the understanding that readers acting on this information assume all risks involved. The information provided herein is not, and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instrument or any derivative related to such securities or instruments. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the associate of DOHA BANK appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be based solely on existing associate of DOHA BANK public information on such security or the information in the prospectus or other offering document issued in connection with such offering, and not on this report. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document has been produced independently of any company or companies mentioned herein, and forward looking statements; opinions and expectations contained herein are subject to change without notice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Doha Brokerage and Financial Services Limited (DBFS), its associate and group companies its directors or employees do not take any responsibility or liability, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this document, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of the shares and bonds, reduction in the dividend or income, etc. This document is not directed to or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or would subject DBFS or its associates or group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this document is inadvertently sent or has reached any individual in such country, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written approval of DBFS. Before acting on any advice or recommendation in this document, a customer should consider whether it is suitable given the customer’s particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and high yield securities, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. DBFS, its associates or group companies do not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any of the information or content of the document and reliance upon it is at your own risk. DBFS, its associates or group companies, expressly disclaims any and all warranties, express or implied, including without limitation warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to the document and any information in it. DBFS, its associates or group companies, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, punitive or consequential damages of any kind with respect to the document. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of DBFS. Page 2
DOHA BROKERAGE April 09, 2013 Special Disclosure In accordance with the SEBI (Foreign Institutional Investors) Regulations and with guidelines issued by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), foreign investors (individuals as well as institutional) that wish to transact securities in Indian bourses must have applied to, and have been approved by SEBI and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Each investor who transacts securities in Indian bourses will be required to certify approval as a foreign institutional investor or as a sub-account of a foreign institutional investor by SEBI and RBI. General Investment Related Disclosure Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. DBFS is also a Portfolio Manager. Portfolio Management Team (PMS) takes its investment decisions independent of the Equity research and accordingly PMS may have positions contrary to the client group research recommendation. associate of DOHA BANK Page 3

More Related Content

Nifty technical outlook(vol 7) dbfs securities ltd

  • 1. DBFS INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES DOHA BROKERAGE INDIA / INDICES / NSE NIFTY Research Analyst Rethish Varma.S ib@dbfsindia.com +91 022 30279043 / 44 April 09, 2013 More downside for the Nifty Nifty - Technical Outlook Markets mostly to remain below 6000 levels for the remaining year! In our last technical report dated 01st March 2013 we had clearly indicated that we are in for a correction that could take Nifty all the way towards 5450 levels. However based on the current political instability prevailing in the country coupled with a weak internal and external economic climate, we expect the weakness to continue with Nifty trading mostly below 6000 levels for the remaining calendar year. Last 1 year chart of NSE Nifty (Data as on 05/04/2013 closing) associate of DOHA BANK associate of DOHA BANK Technical Outlook Technically, the chart structure clearly shows a prevailing bearish sentiment in the markets. For the remaining period of the year, we expect upside for the Nifty to be capped around 5970 levels. This was a major Resistance level that we have tested many times and failed to get a closing above that level during all of our previous pull backs. The momentum indicators in our view, reveal that the market is quite oversold, which could possibly lead to some sort of a minor pull backs/short covering pitching the Nifty towards 5660 or even up to 5720 levels. We expect fresh short positions to pile up around these technical levels and thereby selling pressure may re-emerge. High risk short term traders can utilize the current lows to take long positions in Nifty Futures anticipating a 100 to 150 point pull back and then again going short at the above mentioned technical levels of 5660 and 5720. As further downside in the nifty could be expected for the medium term (around 5350 levels), we recommend our investors to refrain from building fresh long positions at these levels though the markets may seem appealing on a strict valuation perspective. Page 1
  • 2. DOHA BROKERAGE April 09, 2013 Analyst Certification I Rethish Varma.S, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or view expressed in this research report. Disclaimers & Disclosures This research report provides general information only. Recommendations, opinions or suggestions are given with the understanding that readers acting on this information assume all risks involved. The information provided herein is not, and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instrument or any derivative related to such securities or instruments. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the associate of DOHA BANK appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be based solely on existing associate of DOHA BANK public information on such security or the information in the prospectus or other offering document issued in connection with such offering, and not on this report. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document has been produced independently of any company or companies mentioned herein, and forward looking statements; opinions and expectations contained herein are subject to change without notice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Doha Brokerage and Financial Services Limited (DBFS), its associate and group companies its directors or employees do not take any responsibility or liability, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this document, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of the shares and bonds, reduction in the dividend or income, etc. This document is not directed to or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or would subject DBFS or its associates or group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this document is inadvertently sent or has reached any individual in such country, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written approval of DBFS. Before acting on any advice or recommendation in this document, a customer should consider whether it is suitable given the customer’s particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and high yield securities, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. DBFS, its associates or group companies do not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any of the information or content of the document and reliance upon it is at your own risk. DBFS, its associates or group companies, expressly disclaims any and all warranties, express or implied, including without limitation warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to the document and any information in it. DBFS, its associates or group companies, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, punitive or consequential damages of any kind with respect to the document. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of DBFS. Page 2
  • 3. DOHA BROKERAGE April 09, 2013 Special Disclosure In accordance with the SEBI (Foreign Institutional Investors) Regulations and with guidelines issued by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), foreign investors (individuals as well as institutional) that wish to transact securities in Indian bourses must have applied to, and have been approved by SEBI and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Each investor who transacts securities in Indian bourses will be required to certify approval as a foreign institutional investor or as a sub-account of a foreign institutional investor by SEBI and RBI. General Investment Related Disclosure Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. DBFS is also a Portfolio Manager. Portfolio Management Team (PMS) takes its investment decisions independent of the Equity research and accordingly PMS may have positions contrary to the client group research recommendation. associate of DOHA BANK Page 3