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Number that Matters
  Future of the European Union in 2030




                            Arthur Danzi
                          Gudmundur Kr
                         Mauricio Suzuki
                        Sameer Agarwal
                        Sri Hari Krishnan
Our Initial Scenarios
Super State    Empire




Islam State   Breakup
Click Next to see the
Muslim Demographics Video
Fertility Rates
                                         Claim                Reality
           France                        1.8                   1.98 (07)  2.02 (08) 3
           England                       1.6                   1.63(01)  1.92 (07)2
           Greece                        1.3                   1.32(95)  1.41(06) 3
           Germany                       1.3                   1.37 (07)  1.38 (08) 3
           Italy                         1.2                   1.19 (95)  1.35 (06) 1
           Spain                         1.1                   1.16 (95)  1.40 (07) 1
           EU                            1.38                  1.5 (09) 3



Sources: (1) Eurostat (2) UK Office of National Statistics (3) AFP News
Claim


2.11 Required



1.9 Never Reversed
France Population
                65,000,000


                60,000,000


                55,000,000


                50,000,000


                45,000,000


                40,000,000

                                                                             WW I WW II
                35,000,000


                30,000,000


                25,000,000




Source: Compilation de donn辿es INSEE, INED, et Jacques Dupaquier, Histoire de la population fran巽aise, Paris, PUF, 1988. Les donn辿es datant
d'avant les premiers recensements napol辿oniens sont des estimations qui pr棚tent  d辿bats.
France: 1.8 per family, Muslims: 8.1
       Not legal in France to collect data on religion

       Mostly immigration from Algeria and Morocco
              2.38 children per family

       Niger
              Highest fertility rate in the World  7.15

       Muslim nations have high fertility rates
              Yemen 6.41, Gaza Strip 5.19, Saudi Arabia 3.89



* Source: UN World Population Prospect 2008
In the Netherlands,
              50% of all newborns are Muslim.
    Nearly 1 million Muslims in the Netherlands
            5.8% of the population
            50% growth of muslins from 1990 to 2004 from 500k

    Total population of the Netherlands
            16,5 million

    Will 50% of the population be Muslim in 2015?
            Every Muslim, including men, needs to give birth to
             1.3 children per year


Source: Statistics Netherlands, 2009
Muslim population will double in 20 years



  "That is not true. The German government does not
  believe that the Muslim population will double in the
  next 40 or 50 years. There are no reliable sources that
  give a proof for that assumption
         Mr. Walter Radermacher  Chief Statistician of the European Union, former
                            vice-president of the German Federal Statistics Office
The battle between religions

     Claim: 30x increase in Muslims in England
            No source
     Jedi Knight grew from 0 to 390,127 in 1 year
            UK National Statistics office, 2001




                                   Jedi Knight will be the main religion in
                                             England before            2015
Source: The Royal Regression Analysis Club at Rotterdam School of Management
THANK YOU
Appendix
Other numbers

 France
    France does not collect religious data
    Can only show a high concentration of Muslims in one particular
     area of France
 Netherlands
    Muslims are only 5% of the population (Statistics Netherlands) 
     50% of babies = 14 times the rate of births
 UK
    1.6 million (01) but no information about growth rate because
     before 2001 no religion data was collected on census
 Belgium
    6% of population (University of Ghent  2008), instead of 25%
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Numbers that Matter - Muslim Demographics the Truth

  • 1. Number that Matters Future of the European Union in 2030 Arthur Danzi Gudmundur Kr Mauricio Suzuki Sameer Agarwal Sri Hari Krishnan
  • 2. Our Initial Scenarios Super State Empire Islam State Breakup
  • 3. Click Next to see the Muslim Demographics Video
  • 4. Fertility Rates Claim Reality France 1.8 1.98 (07) 2.02 (08) 3 England 1.6 1.63(01) 1.92 (07)2 Greece 1.3 1.32(95) 1.41(06) 3 Germany 1.3 1.37 (07) 1.38 (08) 3 Italy 1.2 1.19 (95) 1.35 (06) 1 Spain 1.1 1.16 (95) 1.40 (07) 1 EU 1.38 1.5 (09) 3 Sources: (1) Eurostat (2) UK Office of National Statistics (3) AFP News
  • 6. France Population 65,000,000 60,000,000 55,000,000 50,000,000 45,000,000 40,000,000 WW I WW II 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 Source: Compilation de donn辿es INSEE, INED, et Jacques Dupaquier, Histoire de la population fran巽aise, Paris, PUF, 1988. Les donn辿es datant d'avant les premiers recensements napol辿oniens sont des estimations qui pr棚tent d辿bats.
  • 7. France: 1.8 per family, Muslims: 8.1 Not legal in France to collect data on religion Mostly immigration from Algeria and Morocco 2.38 children per family Niger Highest fertility rate in the World 7.15 Muslim nations have high fertility rates Yemen 6.41, Gaza Strip 5.19, Saudi Arabia 3.89 * Source: UN World Population Prospect 2008
  • 8. In the Netherlands, 50% of all newborns are Muslim. Nearly 1 million Muslims in the Netherlands 5.8% of the population 50% growth of muslins from 1990 to 2004 from 500k Total population of the Netherlands 16,5 million Will 50% of the population be Muslim in 2015? Every Muslim, including men, needs to give birth to 1.3 children per year Source: Statistics Netherlands, 2009
  • 9. Muslim population will double in 20 years "That is not true. The German government does not believe that the Muslim population will double in the next 40 or 50 years. There are no reliable sources that give a proof for that assumption Mr. Walter Radermacher Chief Statistician of the European Union, former vice-president of the German Federal Statistics Office
  • 10. The battle between religions Claim: 30x increase in Muslims in England No source Jedi Knight grew from 0 to 390,127 in 1 year UK National Statistics office, 2001 Jedi Knight will be the main religion in England before 2015 Source: The Royal Regression Analysis Club at Rotterdam School of Management
  • 13. Other numbers France France does not collect religious data Can only show a high concentration of Muslims in one particular area of France Netherlands Muslims are only 5% of the population (Statistics Netherlands) 50% of babies = 14 times the rate of births UK 1.6 million (01) but no information about growth rate because before 2001 no religion data was collected on census Belgium 6% of population (University of Ghent 2008), instead of 25%