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Paradigms

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David Butler
David Butler

These are some classic bad predictions that show the paradigms that get in our way of seeing possibilities

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Earth I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. -Thomas Watson Chairman of IBM, 1943
Moon Master If I had thought about it, I wouldn't have done the experiment. The literature was full of examples that said you can't do this. -Spencer Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3-M "Post-It" Notepads
Earth Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons. -Popular Mechanics, 1949
Moon Master When they tell you to grow up, they mean stop growing. -Tom Robbins
Earth I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that wont last out the year. -The editor of Business Books Prentice Hall, 1957
Moon Master It will be years -- not in my time -- before a woman will become Prime Minister. -Margaret Thatcher 1974
Earth But whatis it good for? -Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM,1968 Commenting on the Microchip
Moon Master With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn't likely to carve out a big slice of the U.S. market. -Business Week 1968
Earth There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. -Ken Olson President of Digital Equipment Corp. 1977
Moon Master Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy. -Workers whom Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859
Earth This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us. -Western Union internal memo 1876
Moon Master Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. -Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929
Earth The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message to be sent to nobody in particular. -David Sarnoff in response to urgings for investment in radio in the 1920s
Moon Master There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will. -Albert Einstein 1932
Earth While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility. -Lee DeForest Inventor
Moon Master Everything that can be invented has been invented." - Attributed to Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899, but known to be an urban legend
Earth The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a C, the idea must be feasible. -A Yale management professor in response to Fred Smiths paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service. (Smith went on to found FedEx)
Moon Master The bomb will never go off. I speak as an expert in explosives. -Admiral William Leahy, U.S. Atomic Bomb Project.
Earth Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? -H.M Warner Warner Brothers, 1927
Moon Master Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value. -Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre
Earth Im just glad itll be Clark Gable whos falling on his face and not Gary Cooper. -Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in Gone With the Wind
Moon Master There will never be a bigger plane built." - A Boeing engineer, after the first flight of the 247, a twin engine plane that holds ten people
Earth A cookie store is a bad idea. Besides, the market research reports say America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you make. -Response to Debbi Fields' idea of starting Mrs. Fields' Cookies
Moon Master Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction." - Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872
Earth We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out. -Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.
Moon Master The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon." - Sir John Eric Ericksen, British surgeon, appointed Surgeon-Extraordinary to Queen Victoria 1873
Earth Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax. -William Thomson, Lord Kelvin, British scientist, 1899.

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Paradigms

  • 1. Earth I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. -Thomas Watson Chairman of IBM, 1943
  • 2. Moon Master If I had thought about it, I wouldn't have done the experiment. The literature was full of examples that said you can't do this. -Spencer Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3-M "Post-It" Notepads
  • 3. Earth Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons. -Popular Mechanics, 1949
  • 4. Moon Master When they tell you to grow up, they mean stop growing. -Tom Robbins
  • 5. Earth I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that wont last out the year. -The editor of Business Books Prentice Hall, 1957
  • 6. Moon Master It will be years -- not in my time -- before a woman will become Prime Minister. -Margaret Thatcher 1974
  • 7. Earth But whatis it good for? -Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM,1968 Commenting on the Microchip
  • 8. Moon Master With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn't likely to carve out a big slice of the U.S. market. -Business Week 1968
  • 9. Earth There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. -Ken Olson President of Digital Equipment Corp. 1977
  • 10. Moon Master Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy. -Workers whom Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859
  • 11. Earth This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us. -Western Union internal memo 1876
  • 12. Moon Master Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. -Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929
  • 13. Earth The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message to be sent to nobody in particular. -David Sarnoff in response to urgings for investment in radio in the 1920s
  • 14. Moon Master There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will. -Albert Einstein 1932
  • 15. Earth While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility. -Lee DeForest Inventor
  • 16. Moon Master Everything that can be invented has been invented." - Attributed to Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899, but known to be an urban legend
  • 17. Earth The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a C, the idea must be feasible. -A Yale management professor in response to Fred Smiths paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service. (Smith went on to found FedEx)
  • 18. Moon Master The bomb will never go off. I speak as an expert in explosives. -Admiral William Leahy, U.S. Atomic Bomb Project.
  • 19. Earth Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? -H.M Warner Warner Brothers, 1927
  • 20. Moon Master Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value. -Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre
  • 21. Earth Im just glad itll be Clark Gable whos falling on his face and not Gary Cooper. -Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in Gone With the Wind
  • 22. Moon Master There will never be a bigger plane built." - A Boeing engineer, after the first flight of the 247, a twin engine plane that holds ten people
  • 23. Earth A cookie store is a bad idea. Besides, the market research reports say America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you make. -Response to Debbi Fields' idea of starting Mrs. Fields' Cookies
  • 24. Moon Master Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction." - Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872
  • 25. Earth We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out. -Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.
  • 26. Moon Master The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon." - Sir John Eric Ericksen, British surgeon, appointed Surgeon-Extraordinary to Queen Victoria 1873
  • 27. Earth Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax. -William Thomson, Lord Kelvin, British scientist, 1899.