This document discusses various topics related to unemployment, including:
- Defining and measuring unemployment using methods like the claimant count and labor force survey.
- Different types of unemployment like frictional, structural, cyclical, and real wage unemployment.
- Trends in UK unemployment over time and comparisons to the Eurozone.
- Economic and social costs of unemployment for individuals, businesses, and governments.
- Policies aimed at reducing unemployment through demand-side measures to boost jobs and supply-side reforms to improve labor market flexibility.
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Key Issues
The meaning of unemployment
Different types of unemployment
Consequences of unemployment
Unemployment and economic growth
Recent trends in UK unemployment
Full employment
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Measuring Unemployment
A Working Definition of Unemployment
People able, available and willing to find
work and actively seeking work but
not employed
The unemployed are included in the
labour force
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Measuring Unemployment
The Claimant Count Measure
The number of people claiming the
Jobseekers Allowance
Monthly count of unemployed
Currently under 950,000 about 3.0%
of the labour force
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Measuring Unemployment
The Labour Force Survey (ILO measure)
An internationally agreed standard measure
of unemployment
Must have actively sought work in the
previous four weeks and be available to start
work immediately
Higher figure than the claimant count
approximately half a million higher
Higher because there are limits on who can
claim unemployment benefit so the true
level of unemployment is higher than the
official figures suggest
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Hidden Unemployment
We may be under-counting the true level of
unemployment
Unemployment in Britain may be twice as high as official
statistics show. Research on the UK labour market by
economists at HSBC bank takes into account anybody
who is 'economically inactive', but looking for a job, not
just those who are eligible for unemployment benefits
The report estimates that there are 3.4m Britons who are
unemployed, as opposed to the current estimate of 1.4m
people. Britain's official unemployment rate is 4.8% - one
of the lowest rates of unemployment in the European
Union
Adapted from newspaper reports, July 2004
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Flows in the Labour Market
Employed
Labour force Unemployed
Out of the
labour forceTaking
a job
Retiring
Temporarily
leaving
New hires
Recalls
Job-losers
Lay-offs
Quits
Re-entrants
New entrants
Discouraged
workers
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Unemployment trends since 1990
All unemployed aged 16-59 (women) / 64 (men), seasonally adjusted, source: Labour Force Survey and Claimant Count
Unemployment Rate for the UK
Labour Force Survey measure Claimant Count measure
Source: EcoWin
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Labour force survey
Claimant count
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Unemployment since 2000
All unemployed aged 16-59 (women) / 64 (men), seasonally adjusted, source: Labour Force Survey and Claimant Count
Unemployment Rate for the UK
Labour Force Survey measure Claimant Count measure
Source: EcoWin
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
00 01 02 03 04 05
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Labour Force SurveyLabour force survey
Labour Force Survey
Claimant count
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Comparing UK and European
Unemployment
Percentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted
Euro Zone and UK Unemployment
Euro Zone United Kingdom
Source: EcoWin
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
PERCENT
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Euro Zone average (12 countries)
UK unemployment rate
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Types of Unemployment
Seasonal
Regular seasonal changes in
employment / labour demand
Affects certain industries more than
others
Catering and leisure
Construction
Retailing
Tourism
Agriculture
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Types of Unemployment
Frictional
Transitional unemployment due to people
moving between jobs: Includes people
experiencing short spells of
unemployment
Includes new and returning entrants into
the labour market
Imperfect information about available job
opportunities can lengthen the period of
someones job search
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Structural Unemployment
Structural
Arises from the mismatch of skills and job
opportunities as the pattern of labour
demand in the economy changes
Occupational immobility of labour
Often involves long-term unemployment
Prevalent in regions where industries go
into long-term decline
Good examples include industries such
as mining, engineering and textiles
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Textiles - an industry in long term decline
Seasonally adjusted level of output at constant 2000 prices
UK manufacture of textiles, leather and clothing
Source: EcoWin
73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
2002=100
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
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Cyclical unemployment
Cyclical (Keynesian)
There is a cyclical relationship between demand,
output, employment and unemployment
Caused by a fall in aggregate demand leading to a
loss of real national output and employment
A slowdown can lead to businesses laying off
workers because they lack confidence that demand
will recover
Keynes argued that an economy can become stuck
with a low rate of AD and an economy operating
persistently below its potential
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Cyclical unemployment using AD-AS
General
Price
Level
Real National Income
AD1
SRAS
P1
Y1
LRAS
Yfc
AD2
Y2
P2
Real
Wage
Level
LD2
W1
E2 YFC2E1
Demand
for
Labour
W2
Employment of
Labour
Supply of
Labour
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Real Wage Unemployment
Real Wage Unemployment
Created when real wages are maintained
above their market clearing level leading to
an excess supply of labour at the prevailing
wage rate
Some economists believe that
unemployment can be created if the
national minimum wage is set too high
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Unemployment and Growth in the UK
Real GDP and Claimant Count Unemployment
United Kingdom, Unemployment, Rate, Claimant count, SAReal GDP growth [ar 4 quarters]
Source: EcoWin
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Percent
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Real GDP growth
Percent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Unemployment (%)
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Recent examples of cyclical unemployment
Recession in the UK in the early 1990s
Unemployment rose from 1.6 million in 1989
to 2.9 million in 1993
The recent recession in UK manufacturing
industry
Slow growth and rising unemployment in
Germany
The end of full-employment for Japan during the
last ten years
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Economic and Social Costs of
Unemployment
The private costs for the unemployed
Loss of income
Fall in real living standards
Increased health risks
Stress
Reduction in quality of diet
Social exclusion because of loss of work and income
Loss of marketable skills (human capital) and
motivation
The longer the duration of unemployment, the lower
the chances of finding fresh employment - the
unemployed become less attractive to potential
employers
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Consequences of Unemployment (2)
Economic Consequences for Businesses
Negative consequences
Fall in demand for goods and services
Fall in demand for businesses further down the
supply chain
Consider the negative multiplier effects from the
closure of a major employer in a town or city
Some positive consequences
Bigger pool of surplus labour is available but still a
problem if there is plenty of structural unemployment
Less pressure to pay higher wages
Less risk of industrial / strike action fear of job
losses leading to reduced trade union power
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Consequences of Unemployment (3)
Consequences for the Government (Fiscal Policy)
Increased spending on unemployment benefits
and other income related state welfare
payments
Fall in revenue from income tax and taxes on
consumer spending
Fall in profits reduction in revenue from
corporation tax
May lead to rise in government borrowing (i.e. a
budget deficit)
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Consequences of Unemployment (3)
Consequences for the economy as a whole
Lost output (real GDP) from people being out of
work the economy will be operating well within
its production frontier
Unemployment seen as an inefficient way of
allocating resources labour market failure?
Some of the long-term unemployed may leave
the labour force permanently fall in potential
GDP
Increase in the inequality rise in relative
poverty
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Policies to reduce unemployment
Demand and supply side approaches
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Demand side Policies to Reduce Unemployment
These are mainly measures to boost total labour demand
(reduce cyclical unemployment)
Lower interest rates (a monetary policy stimulus)
A lower exchange rate (helps exporters)
Lower direct taxes (fiscal stimulus to spending power)
Government spending on major capital projects (e.g.
improving the transport infrastructure)
Employment subsidies (including the New Deal
programme) designed to reduce the cost to a
business of employing additional workers
Incentives to encourage flows of foreign investment in
the UK particularly in areas of above average
unemployment
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Supply-side policies to reduce Unemployment
Supply-side policies
These are measures to improve labour supply (reduce
frictional and structural unemployment)
Increased spending on education & training
including an emphasis on lifetime-learning)
Improved flows of information on job vacancies
Changes to tax and benefits to improve incentives
Measures designed to make the labour market
more flexible so that workers have the skills and
education that gives them improved employment
options
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Consequences of falling unemployment
The circular flow and the multiplier:
Incomes flowing into households will grow
Falling unemployment adds to demand and
creates a positive multiplier effect on incomes,
demand and output.
The balance of payments:
When incomes and spending are growing, there
is an increase in the demand for imports. Unless
this is matched by a rise in export sales, the trade
balance in goods and services will worsen
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Consequences of falling unemployment
Government finances:
With more people in work paying income tax,
national insurance and value added tax, the
government can expect a large rise in tax
revenues and a reduction in social security
benefits
Inflationary effects
Falling unemployment can also create a rise in
inflationary pressure particularly when the
economy moves close to operating at full capacity
However this is not really a risk when the
economy is coming out of recession, since
aggregate supply is likely to be highly elastic
because of a high level of spare capacity
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Falling unemployment in the UK
Demand factors
Sustained economic growth since 1992
Growth creates jobs to replace jobs lost in industries
suffering from long term decline
High levels of inward investment from overseas
Strong consumer demand and housing boom
Supply factors
Extra investment in education and training
Britain now has a more flexible labour market than
in the past workers have more adaptable skills
Employment laws have changed easier for firms
to take on extra workers
E.g. growth of temporary and part time employment
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Falling unemployment
Growth of service
sector has created
many new jobs
Foreign direct
investment
New Deal helping
to lower long-term
unemployment
Flexible labour
market easier to
create new jobs
Increased
spending on
education
Sustained
economic growth
since 1992
The UK heads towards full-employment
Editor's Notes
#4: Officially, the unemployed are people who are registered as able, available and willing to work at the going wage rate but who cannot find work despite an active search for work. There is a long-running debate about the accuracy of the unemployment figures in the UK with many economists claiming that the true scale of unemployment is well above the official published statistics.
#5: Officially, the unemployed are people who are registered as able, available and willing to work at the going wage rate but who cannot find work despite an active search for work. There is a long-running debate about the accuracy of the unemployment figures in the UK with many economists claiming that the true scale of unemployment is well above the official published statistics.
#6: Officially, the unemployed are people who are registered as able, available and willing to work at the going wage rate but who cannot find work despite an active search for work. There is a long-running debate about the accuracy of the unemployment figures in the UK with many economists claiming that the true scale of unemployment is well above the official published statistics.
#9: The labour force survey measure of unemployment is higher than the claimant count (usually by about 500,000 people) because the survey includes more people who are actively searching for work (and available to take a job if they find one) but who do not meet the strict criteria for claiming the Job Seekers Allowance.
#11: Since the mid-1990s, unemployment in the UK has been below the average for the European Union. High levels of unemployment within the EU are posing serious threats to economic and social cohesion within the economic union. EU countries now have explicit targets for raising employment but many of the problems appear to be structural in nature and may take several years to resolve.
#12: As one might expect, economists disagree on the main causes of unemployment. Some argue that we need to make a distinction between voluntary and involuntary unemployment. A worker is described as voluntarily unemployed if, at the given level of wages available, he or she does not yet wish to accept a paid job. Involuntary unemployment exists when someone would be prepared to work at the going wage rate, but for one reason or another, they are unable to find work.
#13: When workers calculate that because of lost welfare benefits and extra direct taxes they are no better off working than if they remain outside the employed labour force thus unemployment can result from the problem of disincentives. Lower income tax rates and benefit reforms might be a solution to this thereby boosting the supply of labour available to work in the economy
#18: When there is a recession we see a rising level of unemployment because of plant closures, business failures and the inevitable increase in worker lay-offs and permanent redundancies. This is due to a fall in demand leading to a contraction in output across many industries. A downturn in demand is often the stimulus for businesses to rationalise their operations by cutting employment in order to control costs and restore some of their lost profitability.
#19: During the last UK recession (1990-1992) employment fell from nearly 28.8 million to just under 27 million. And the unemployment rate measured by the Claimant Count jumped from 5.6% in 1990 to 9.7% in 1993. The deeper is the downturn, the higher the scale of cyclical unemployment
#21: A growing economy creates jobs for people entering the labour market for the first time. And, it provides employment opportunities for people unemployed and looking for work. In the last two recessions (1980-81 and 1990-92), the number of people in work fell sharply. But a period of sustained economic growth since 1993 has led to a significant increase in employment. Only certain types of unemployment are affected by changes in actual GDP (e.g. cyclical unemployment) Frictional unemployment is unaffected and structural unemployment is unlikely to decline even if there is an expansion of national output.
#23: Persistent unemployment in the economy can be taken as a sign of a failure of the labour market to allocate labour resources efficiently. Long-term unemployment damages individuals because they lose their self-respect and employers lose interest in them. Employers do not consider the long-term unemployed to be probable candidates for vacancies. It is therefore possible to have a large number of vacancies coexisting with high unemployment if many of the jobless have been out of work for a long time.
#26: The costs of unemployment include lost output (output within PPF) lost government revenue and increased expenditure on benefits. Unemployment has important social costs eg unequal income and diminished social cohesion; loss of status, alienation and frustration. The effects of unemployment will depend on its rate and duration long term unemployment can be very costly and difficult to reduce
#28: Demand side approaches focus on raising the aggregate demand for goods and services. Because labour as a factor input has a derived demand, if production and investment is increasing, so too there should be a rise in the demand for new workers. The multiplier effects of an initial boost to aggregate demand may cause a higher final increase in equilibrium national income.
#29: Because the economy will always be subject to cyclical fluctuations, it is impossible to keep unemployment at very low levels on a permanent basis. In a dynamic economy there will always be industries where output and employment rising, providing new employment opportunities, but also sectors in decline where employment is falling. The labour market needs to be flexible enough to match people out of work with the skills required by newly created jobs. These supply-side policies seek to provide the economy with sufficient labour market flexibility
#30: Unemployment adds to the flow of factor incomes for households and this has a direct effect on the circular flow of income and spending in the economy