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Innovative Policies for Implementing Intelligent Speed Adaptation on Urban Roads Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands Urban Transport Conference 2006 13th July 2006

Structure of presentation Background Safety issue on road and contribution of Intelligent Speed Adaptation to traffic safety goal Problem Uncertainties related to implementation of ISA in real world and shortcomings of traditional policymaking Adaptive Policymaking Approach Alternative approach for policymaking Development of an Adaptive Policy for the Implementation of Intelligent Speed Adaptation Conclusions and Recommendations

Background ROAD TRANSPORT PROBLEM Safety is one of the major concerns of the transportation system. 40,000 fatalities and 1.7 million injuries due to road traffic accidents in the EU. Speeding of vehicles contributes to 1/3 of road accidents. Various actions have been taken to combat the problem of speeding but still the target has not been achieved. Enforcing current speed limits has the potential to reduce fatalities and injuries substantially.

TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION Intelligent Speed Adaptation By automation Advisory Voluntary Mandatory By function Fixed Variable Dynamic Beacon GPS Background

UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO ISA IMPLEMENTATION User acceptance Technological uncertainties Driver behaviour Organisational and Legal uncertainties External factors like transport demand and technological development affecting the road transport system … … WHY UNCERTAIN? : Has been tested only by small scale implementation and simulation studies under ‘laboratory’ conditions. Hence effect of large scale implementation in real world is uncertain. Problem

SHORTCOMINGS OF TRADITIONAL POLICYMAKING Single static policy Assumptions go wrong or trend breaking scenario No rethinking about the policy in accordance with the changing information in the system. Problem Identify the problem Analyze and compare alternatives Selection & screening of alternatives Develop scenarios Decide on outcomes of interest Specify objectives Implement alternative or policy Monitor and evaluate results Traditional policymaking

Does not attempt to “see the future”, but adapts to changing conditions An adaptive plan includes near-term actions ways to monitor changes in external factors actions to take in the future for a range of external developments An adaptive plan responds to changes over time and makes explicit provision for learning Adaptive Policymaking Approach Source : Walker et al. 2001 Constraints certain uncertain

Traditional decisionmaking versus Adaptive decisionmaking D1 Today Future D2 D3 Today Future Monitor Monitor Monitor D2 D1 D3

Policy Option: Considering the accident scenario in NL, measures taken to reduce speed on road, and speed accident relationship and positive effects of ISA in reducing accidents Intelligent Speed Adaptation is selected as a policy option that should be implemented. Constraints : Financial constraint Congestion on the road should not increase due to ISA implementation Average travel time on the road should not increase due to ISA implementation Air & Noise pollution should not increase due to ISA implementation Definition of Success : Reduction by 25% in fatalities and 22%, in hospitalised victims due to road accidents by 2010 (as compared to the figures of 2003) Attaining V90 – speed of 90% of vehicles must be within the speed limit Objective: Reduction in traffic fatalities and hospitalised victims due to speeding of vehicles on road. (Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management as problem owner) Developing an Adaptive Policy for ISA Implementation Step 1 - Stage setting

Step 2 - Assembling the Basic Policy Specifying the basic policy [ISA] for implementation The basic policy is implemented for unsafe roads , unsafe vehicles , unsafe drivers and unsafe traffic conditions . Policy Specifications : Urban roads, Cars and Young drivers (18-34 years) Necessary Conditions of Success Factors like speed, speed distribution and speed offences on urban roads should decrease. Availability of reliable communication system and accurate speed data. Acceptance among users- penetration level of 60% … . Dynamic Voluntary ISA is selected to be implemented

Step 3 – Specifying the rest of the Policy Vulnerabilities Mitigating Actions Signposts Dependence on the system by the users (uncertain) Training programs to use ISA Customized interface Installation of black boxes and/or developing user report Accidents involving ISA users User reports Low user acceptance (uncertain) Incentives Advertisements, workshops & campaigns User reports Penetration level of ISA User reports Reliability of ISA in times of incidental speed limit (certain) Temporary vehicle – roadway communication- beacon Hedging Actions

Step 4 – Implementation Phase Basic policy is implemented after agreeing upon the basic policy, vulnerabilities, signposts & critical value of the triggers and adaptive responses. The signposts are monitored and information is collected and when critical trigger level is reached defensive or corrective actions are taken. Signposts Defensive action Corrective action Penetration level of ISA Increase speeding fines Confiscate driver’s license Implement ISA on mandatory basis Increase the policy scope (driver of all ages or on all road categories) Trigger Penetration level less than 1% per month If the trigger level causes re-thinking of objectives/constraints, perform reassessment e.g.: malfunctioning of ISA resulted in large accident.

ISA has positive impact in reducing road traffic fatalities and injuries due to speeding. Policies developed by the traditional approach are not flexible to the changing circumstances and doesn’t incorporate learning over time . The adaptive policymaking approach is a more logical and systematic procedure to deal with uncertainties compared to traditional policymaking for ISA implementation on large scale. Conclusions

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