This document discusses program risk management for major development projects. It notes that many large gaming and resort projects have failed due to inadequate risk management, resulting in cost overruns, delays, and bankruptcy. The document outlines a risk management process involving risk identification, assessment, mitigation planning, implementation, monitoring, and reporting to help avoid failures and ensure projects are completed on time and on budget.
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Program Risk Management for Integrated Resorts
1. DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT AND CONSULTING
PROGRAM RISK MANAGEMENT
w w w . m a m m i n a g r o u p .
PROGRAM RISK MANAGEMENT
For Integrated Resorts
2. Program Risk Management
Ben Mammina Development Group LLC, 10161 Park Run Drive, Suite 150, Las Vegas, Nevada 89145 702.822.2200 office 702.869.9931 fax
Risk is exposure to the consequences of uncertainty.
We propose to make your success more certain.
The success of major projects requires sophisticated approaches to
managing complexity, uncertainty and risk, in addition to opening
on time, and on budget. Today, shareholders and investors demand
a deeper scrutiny of major project investments. Major project
failures are major management failures with expensive
consequences. We help you avoid those consequences.
Program Risk Management professionals work in parallel as a team
with Project Management to enable them to focus on schedule, and
budget, and completion. The program risk managers independent
role is critical, especially if project management is a risk to the major
projects success.
Many major gaming and resort projects fail without adequate risk
management. We note some recent case studies:
The $3.5 Billion Baha Mar Resort in the Bahamas is in bankruptcy
just short of being opened.
In Las Vegas, the $2.9 Billion Fontainebleaus cost overruns,
forced it into bankruptcy. It was later bought for $150 Million.
The $4 Billion Echelon Place was abandoned in 2008 and sold in
2013 to Genting Group for $350 Million.
The $3.9 Billion Cosmopolitan filed for bankruptcy. The property
was sold by the Deutsche Bank for $1.73 Billion in 2014.
The $5 Billion Las Vegas Plaza development was put on hold in
2008 and cancelled in 2011 for a land cost loss of $1.2 Billion.
The $9 Billion CityCenter, opened in 2009, and finished $4 Billion
over original budget, with a $350 Million Contractor lawsuit.
The net result: MGM was almost placed into bankruptcy.
The $4 Billion Grand Ho Tram in Vietnam lost its operator, MGM
after cost over runs, delays, a ban on local residents entering
casinos, and a lack of infrastructure serving the property.
The $5.7 Billion Marina Bay Sands, in Singapore opened 5 months
late in 2010 and $2 Billion over budget.
The $2 Billion Manila Bay Resort is projected to have a two year
delay, and is distracted by disputes, lawsuits and investigations.
The disaster examples are numerous. The risk is not learning from
the mistakes and not knowing how to prevent the failures.
Major project cost overruns and delays are always serious issues.
Our analysis of industry research shows that major projects often
exceed their budgets by 50% or more. The risks for major projects
are; however, more than cost overruns and delays.
All major projects have their distinct risk characteristics,
geographies, participants, and conditions. We recommend our
clients invest upfront in planning, organization design, systems and
processes, custom contracts, rigorous budgets, and schedules,
combined with robust program risk management practices.
We address the following high level, Program Risk Divisions:
Macro Risk Management
Economic
Political
Cultural
Force Majeure
Program Management
Strategy
People
Process
Technology
Project Management
Design and Engineering
Budget
Schedule (Programme)
Construction
Compliance Management
Contracts & Insurance
Building Codes
Industry Requirements
Federal & International Laws
The Benefits of Success Risk: Your major project is completed on
time, on budget, cost and risk avoided, and generating revenue.
3. Program Risk Management
Ben Mammina Development Group LLC, 10161 Park Run Drive, Suite 150, Las Vegas, Nevada 89145 702.822.2200 office 702.869.9931 fax
Twenty-One Reasons Why Major Gaming and Resort Projects Fail
1. Inadequate or missing risk management, planning, assessment,
mitigation, reporting and resolution.
2. Lack of change management. High speed, large volume change is
common to major projects. Not managing change results in chaos.
3. Insufficient resources: professional project management, design,
engineering expertise, cash flow, labor, materials, and equipment.
4. Change(s) in scope mid-project and late in the project that disrupts
construction efficiency, productivity and sequencing.
5. Poorly defined program/project goals and objectives, flow into poor
programing, planning, design and construction documents.
6. Lack of executive sponsorship, commitment, and investment in the
project/program, or misrepresentation of its scope.
7. Poor cost budgeting discipline, cost estimates and missed deadlines
indicate poor skillsets, design, or scheduling management.
8. Project management team that is inadequately trained, lacks the
required expertise, or exhibits unjustified arrogance.
9. Starting construction before design and other project criteria are fully
defined and construction drawing are finalized.
10. An early indicator of project trouble is a lack of indicators. There may
be no indicators of failure because project management does not
have an understanding of where the project really stands, or
understand the projects true status.
11. Schedule mismanagement. Projects frequently encounter problems
because the schedule is not managed.
12. Ambiguity in contracts. Unclear scope, terms and conditions and
dispute resolution can derail projects.
13. Major projects are particularly vulnerable to scope creep. Changes,
variations, and time impacts multiply complexity.
14. Optimism bias. Underestimating the complexity of the project and
assume all will proceed smoothly. In their zeal to get approval and
funding for projects, overconfident project managers fail to address
potential risks early enough in the process.
15. Slow decision making. An executive, operator, or design professional
may fail to sign off on routine decisions, a project can languish. If
timely design decisions are not made by the owners team, a
contractor may move ahead without them and replace work, doubling
cost, and time and disrupting the construction sequence.
16. Communications problems are often at the root of troubled major
projects. There may be lack of communications between the top
executives and the project management team. The project manager
may warn that a project is running over budget and behind schedule,
but the message may not reach the C-suite and board before
problems get out of hand.
17. Project management teams may have a reluctance to report project
troubles which reflect poorly. Bad news is not easily communicated.
18. International projects can be fraught with complications of cultures,
language, means and methods, economy, legal customs
complications which may be beyond project managements abilities
to manage and add to complexity.
19. The project manager or contractor usually makes the call on a
troubled project, but occasionally external factors such as regulatory
forces, financial markets, or the economics of the major project
change, causing red flags for a major project.
20. Owners fail to establish the proper project management structure,
project controls, monitoring procedures, and processes. As a result,
they do not anticipate unforeseen events and do not build in the
necessary contingency plans. Because of shortcomings in project
controls, they often dont realize the severity of delays and cost
overruns until well after a major project is in trouble.
21. A lack of Program Risk Management resources and processes.
4. Ben Mammina Development Group LLC, 10161 Park Run Drive, Suite 150, Las Vegas, Nevada 89145 702.822.2200 office 702.869.9931 fax
The Program Risk Management Flow Diagram
The Risk Management Team
Annually, the risk management team will plan, establish requirements,
responsibilities, definitions, and procedures. A key first step in the process
is to work with the clients management team to define risk, where risk is
and to understand how it is shared. We define the risk assessment as the
identification, analysis and reporting of risk events across the
Project/Program. Equally important is defining the risk of success and
opportunities. We then finalize with the Client, agreed upon procedures.
Assessment
BMDGs risk assessment process involves the following (4) key steps:
1. We will mobilize our team and in conjunction with the Client, develop
an interview/workshop program for select CM, GC, Client
management, Internal Audit and other key project personnel, to
understand key strategies for the Project/Program. Leveraging their
collective experience, the team then identifies risks that could impact
the project, either positively or negatively.
2. Identify and minimize known, and unknown, risk factors associated
with the construction of the Project/Program into a Risk Breakdown
Structure (RBS). Risk identification also estimates the timing of the
risks in the project cycle, or phase. This is important for being
proactive in mitigating identified risk. Risks are classified by their
impacts (Cost and Schedule) on various phases of the project.
3. Next, based upon the interviews, a working knowledge of the Project,
a contracts review, and an engineering and construction package
review, we will develop a Risk Breakdown Structure framework of key
drivers and processes that impact the strategies for the timely design,
construction, and operation of the Project/Program. We will analyze
all available financial information and work with management to
validate key observations.
4. We document our findings, develop action plans and risk mitigation
strategies to respond to the significant risks discovered, while
documenting, monitoring and re-assessing risk on a periodic basis.
5. Ben Mammina Development Group LLC, 10161 Park Run Drive, Suite 150, Las Vegas, Nevada 89145 702.822.2200 office 702.869.9931 fax
A Summary of Risk Events (SRE) will be developed in conjunction with the
Client to categorize and prioritize assessed risks in terms of magnitude
(High, Moderate, and Low) and ranking them accordingly. This step
requires risk valuation/modeling to develop cost and or schedule impacts.
Upon completion of each key step, we will report the results of the Risk
Assessment to Client for comment, revisions, and final approvals before
moving to the next stages.
Mitigation
The uncertainties of risk probability and potential impact should be
reduced by selecting the appropriate risk mitigation strategy. Selected
mitigation strategies are classified into four groups:
1. Avoid: Avoidance when a risk is not accepted and other lower risk
choices are available from several alternatives.
2. Retain: Retention/Acceptance a conscious decision is made to
accept the consequences should the event occur.
3. Control: Control/Reduction the process of continually monitoring,
auditing and correcting the condition on the project is used. This
process involves the development of an audit plan and then tracking
the plan. This mitigation strategy is the most common risk
management and handling technique.
4. Trans: Transfer/Deflect the risk is shared with others. Forms of
sharing the risk with others include contractual shifting, performance
incentives, insurance, warranties, bonds, etc.
Develop Mitigation Plan
Risks to the Project/Program present themselves at different times and
with differing impacts. The strategies available to deal with these risks
and to mitigate them if possible are also varied. It is likely that there is
more than one avenue available for mitigation of the risks encountered.
Detailed, causation, prioritization and mitigation actions for each
identified risk will be established with Client input and integrated into the
Five-Year Evaluation Plan.
1. The Mitigation Plan will outline each proposed evaluation by; type,
timing (start and duration), required resources, estimated budget,
and audit scope. The Evaluation Plan and any adjustments will be
updated on an annual basis and approved by the Client.
2. The Mitigation Plan will have built-in flexibility to allow for change
and adjustments in priority over the course of the Project/Programs
progress.
3. The Mitigation Plan will include monitoring of on-going results,
recommendations and reassessments of actions taken by the Client
subsequent to each final report submitted.
4. The Mitigation Plan will provide for the inclusion of Client personnel
(as required) to provide knowledge sharing for Client staff, to provide
fact based intelligence reporting in dispute resolution events, and to
provide an archived reporting mechanism for future research of the
Project/Program.
5. Risk events are classified as to the possible timing of the occurrence
of the risk event. Timing at this stage of the Project is classified into
the following groups:
External risks that exist throughout the life of the project. Risks that
are in the background and generally outside of direct work of the
project.
Project Risks risks that exist throughout the life of the Contract.
Early Risks risks that could currently impact the project but will
dissipate as the project progresses.
Construction Risks risks during the active construction phase of the
project.
Start-up and Commissioning Risks risks associated with testing and
acceptance of the project and close-out of the Contract.
Implement Plan
Upon the review and approval of the initial Mitigation Plan by the Client,
the Client-BMDG Team will implement the Mitigation Plan to address
each area of risk concern and allow for on-going inquiries that develop,
and are approved by the Client.
6. Ben Mammina Development Group LLC, 10161 Park Run Drive, Suite 150, Las Vegas, Nevada 89145 702.822.2200 office 702.869.9931 fax
Manage Data
The accuracy of the information in the database is very important.
Therefore, in order to effectively manage risk, current best practices
mandate the use of a secure electronic database. The project/program
will use a Risk Database as the basis for all risk mitigation, monitoring and
reporting functions.
Detailed procedures for entering risks are given in a training syllabus
provided by the Risk Management Coordinator (RMC). All personnel
assigned to the program will attend Risk Management Training to learn
and how to work with the Risk Management database.
Risk Monitoring and Reporting
Risk monitoring is an integral part of routine Program Risk Management
and not a separate discipline. Risk monitoring is accomplished at the
monthly meetings of the Risk Management Board (RMB). The RMB
reviews, approves, and continually reassess all aspects of program risks to
include risk levels, risk assessments, risk mitigation options and risk
mitigation plans. In addition, the Risk Management Coordinator will
develop and maintain a watch List and brief the Risk Management Team.
Accepted risks will enter into a process of action and committing the
necessary resources to handle and monitor them. Since dealing with risk
will by its nature demand trade-offs, it is important to have a disciplined
and systematic process to prioritize management actions.
Likewise, it is important to have a risk monitoring process that
systematically tracks and evaluates the performance of risk-mitigation
actions. Risk monitoring will consist of regular briefings and presentations
to the appropriate management level, as well as automated notifications
from the Risk Database. During these briefings and presentations,
predicted results of planned actions will be compared with the results
actually achieved to determine status and the need for any change in risk-
mitigation actions.
Initial Screening and Notification
For all newly identified risks, the RMC will perform an initial screening and
check for duplication, accuracy, reasonableness, and related risks, then
take one of the following actions:
Accept as Pending: Track and refer to the RRB for adjudication. Add the
new risk to the Risk Watch List.
Update: More information is required if the risk entry raises questions.
The RMC coordinates with the originator to find the information
necessary to either accept or reject the risk.
Close Out: Risk is low, non-existent, or duplicated and does not require
tracking; or no uncertainty exists; or there is insufficient time to handle as
a risk. If appropriate, handle as an action item and refer to the appropriate
manager.
Risk Management Board
The RMC will convene monthly Project Level RMB meetings to review new
risks and to review and approve current risks and action item status.
Through the initial screening process, the RMC incorporates new risks into
the Risk database. Depending on the urgency and severity, significant new
risks may be briefed and discussed before the next scheduled RMB
meeting. In preparation for the RRB, the RMC shall:
Coordinate with all risk owners and action assignees to update the
status of existing risks and risk actions
Prepare new risks for review
Prepare a list of risks that can be closed out
Prepare and publish an agenda for the meeting
The Project Level RMB and or the Program Manager/Developer RMB shall
review all program risks and make the following decisions:
Accept: Accept status and recommendations, and formally track and
assign action if required. Assign risk owner. Notify senior
management if applicable.
Update: Status of one or more elements of the risk need updating or
are in question. Refer back to risk owner.
Close Out: Risk is low or non-existent and does not require tracking,
or no uncertainty exists or there is insufficient time to handle as a
risk. If appropriate, handle as an action item. When a risk is closed
out it is retained in the Risk database but is no longer tracked.