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Quantitative Methods
Dr. Mohamed Ramadan
Moh_Ramadan@icloud.com
Quantitative Methods
Introduction to
Hypothesis Testing
Lecture (4)
Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
Revision
 賊 !"#
$


Confidence Interval at confidence
level 1  
 = 基 咋

!
"
#
$
袖
Null
Hypothesis
Alternative
Hypothesis
Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
The Idea ... Concept and Terminologies
 = 基 咋

!
"
#
$
The Decision Maker (Prime-
Minister) introduced the following
two hypotheses to be tested:
H0: The Population Mean of
Monthly Salary = 23,100
H1: The Population Mean of
Monthly Salary < 23,100
袖
Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
The Idea ... Concept and Terminologies
 = 基 咋

!
"
#
$
The Decision Maker (Prime-
Minister) introduced the following
two hypotheses to be tested:
H0: The Population Mean of
Monthly Salary = 23,100
H1: The Population Mean of
Monthly Salary < 23,100
袖
Decision H0 is True H0 is False
! Reject H0 
# Reject H0 
$ Reject H0 
" Accept H0
留
= ($  ) 
= ($ 腫 )
Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
Decision H0 is True H0 is False
Reject H0  
Dont Reject H0  
Types of Errors:
Type I error
Type II error
Decision H0 is True
Innocent
H0 is False
Guilty
Reject H0  
Dont Reject H0  
If you are a Judge:
H0: The defendant is innocent
H1: The defendant is guilty
Type II error
Occurs when a null hypothesis
Type I error
Occurs when we a null hypothesis
Types of Errors
Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
The Concept of Testing of Hypotheses
1. There are two hypotheses, the null and the alternative
hypotheses.
2. The procedure begins with the assumption that the null
hypothesis is true.
3. The goal is to determine whether there is enough evidence to
infer that the alternative hypothesis is true.
4. There are two possible decisions:
皃 Conclude that there is enough evidence to support the
alternative hypothesis. [We reject the null hypothesis]
皃 Conclude that there is not enough evidence to support the
alternative hypothesis. [We couldnt reject the null hypothesis]
Hypotheses Testing
Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
The Mechanism of Testing of Hypotheses
 = 基 咋

袖
%:  = 23,000
!:  > 23,000
&
留 =  $  
留 =  $ % p ≠ %  $
留 =   > & p ≠ %  $
留 = 
  
/ 
>
&  
/ 
留 =   > '
' =
&  
/ 
 & = '


+ 
留
Rejection
Region
Acceptance
Region
Hypotheses Testing
& = '


+  = %.%)
200
100
+ 23,000
Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
The Mechanism of Testing of Hypotheses
 = 基 咋

袖
%:  = 23,000
!:  > 23,000
&
留 =  $  
留 =  $ % p ≠ %  $
留 =   > & p ≠ %  $
留 = 
  
/ 
>
&  
/ 
留 =   > '
' =
&  
/ 
 & = '


+ 
 = 23,200  = 100  = 200  = 5%
留 = 0.050.5 0.45
Hypotheses Testing
Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
 = 基 咋

袖
&
 = 23,200  = 100  = 200  = 5%
& = '


+  = %.%)
200
100
+ 23,000
& = 1.65 20 + 23,000 = 23,033
留 = 0.050.5 0.45
0.4505
0.05
1.6
Hypotheses Testing
Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
The Mechanism of Testing of Hypotheses
 = 基 咋

袖
%:  = 23,000
!:  > 23,000
& = 23,033
留 =  $  
留 =  $ % p ≠ %  $
留 =   > & p ≠ %  $
留 = 
  
/ 
>
&  
/ 
留 =   > '
' =
&  
/ 
 & = '


+ 
 = 23,200  = 100  = 200  = 5%
& = '


+  = %.%)
200
100
+ 23,000
& = 1.65 20 + 23,000 = 23,033
Acceptance
Region
Rejection
Region
Hypotheses Testing
  > !   ゐ  ≠  ≠  p  "
Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
The Mechanism of Testing of Hypotheses (The Simplest Mechanism)
%:  = 23,000
!:  > 23,000
 =
  
/ 
 ゐ  %   > '
 = 基 咋

'
留
Rejection
Region
Acceptance
Region
0
Standardized Test Statistic
Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
The Mechanism of Testing of Hypotheses (The Simplest Mechanism)
%:  = 23,000
!:  > 23,000
 =
  
/ 
 ゐ  %   > '
 = 基 咋

%.%) = 1.65
Rejection
Region
0
 = 23,200  = 100  = 200  = 5%
%.%) = 1.65
  > '
 ゐ  ≠  ≠  p  !
 $$$ 
Acceptance
Region
Standardized Test Statistic
 =
  
/ 
=
23,200  23,000
200
100
=
200
20
= 10

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Quantitative Methods in Business - Lecture (4)

  • 1. Quantitative Methods Dr. Mohamed Ramadan Moh_Ramadan@icloud.com
  • 3. Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing Revision 賊 !"# $ Confidence Interval at confidence level 1 = 基 咋 ! " # $ 袖
  • 4. Null Hypothesis Alternative Hypothesis Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing The Idea ... Concept and Terminologies = 基 咋 ! " # $ The Decision Maker (Prime- Minister) introduced the following two hypotheses to be tested: H0: The Population Mean of Monthly Salary = 23,100 H1: The Population Mean of Monthly Salary < 23,100 袖
  • 5. Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing The Idea ... Concept and Terminologies = 基 咋 ! " # $ The Decision Maker (Prime- Minister) introduced the following two hypotheses to be tested: H0: The Population Mean of Monthly Salary = 23,100 H1: The Population Mean of Monthly Salary < 23,100 袖 Decision H0 is True H0 is False ! Reject H0 # Reject H0 $ Reject H0 " Accept H0
  • 6. 留 = ($ ) = ($ 腫 ) Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing Decision H0 is True H0 is False Reject H0 Dont Reject H0 Types of Errors: Type I error Type II error Decision H0 is True Innocent H0 is False Guilty Reject H0 Dont Reject H0 If you are a Judge: H0: The defendant is innocent H1: The defendant is guilty Type II error Occurs when a null hypothesis Type I error Occurs when we a null hypothesis Types of Errors
  • 7. Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing The Concept of Testing of Hypotheses 1. There are two hypotheses, the null and the alternative hypotheses. 2. The procedure begins with the assumption that the null hypothesis is true. 3. The goal is to determine whether there is enough evidence to infer that the alternative hypothesis is true. 4. There are two possible decisions: 皃 Conclude that there is enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis. [We reject the null hypothesis] 皃 Conclude that there is not enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis. [We couldnt reject the null hypothesis] Hypotheses Testing
  • 8. Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing The Mechanism of Testing of Hypotheses = 基 咋 袖 %: = 23,000 !: > 23,000 & 留 = $ 留 = $ % p ≠ % $ 留 = > & p ≠ % $ 留 = / > & / 留 = > ' ' = & / & = ' + 留 Rejection Region Acceptance Region Hypotheses Testing
  • 9. & = ' + = %.%) 200 100 + 23,000 Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing The Mechanism of Testing of Hypotheses = 基 咋 袖 %: = 23,000 !: > 23,000 & 留 = $ 留 = $ % p ≠ % $ 留 = > & p ≠ % $ 留 = / > & / 留 = > ' ' = & / & = ' + = 23,200 = 100 = 200 = 5% 留 = 0.050.5 0.45 Hypotheses Testing
  • 10. Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing = 基 咋 袖 & = 23,200 = 100 = 200 = 5% & = ' + = %.%) 200 100 + 23,000 & = 1.65 20 + 23,000 = 23,033 留 = 0.050.5 0.45 0.4505 0.05 1.6 Hypotheses Testing
  • 11. Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing The Mechanism of Testing of Hypotheses = 基 咋 袖 %: = 23,000 !: > 23,000 & = 23,033 留 = $ 留 = $ % p ≠ % $ 留 = > & p ≠ % $ 留 = / > & / 留 = > ' ' = & / & = ' + = 23,200 = 100 = 200 = 5% & = ' + = %.%) 200 100 + 23,000 & = 1.65 20 + 23,000 = 23,033 Acceptance Region Rejection Region Hypotheses Testing > ! ゐ ≠ ≠ p "
  • 12. Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing The Mechanism of Testing of Hypotheses (The Simplest Mechanism) %: = 23,000 !: > 23,000 = / ゐ % > ' = 基 咋 ' 留 Rejection Region Acceptance Region 0 Standardized Test Statistic
  • 13. Lecture (4) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing The Mechanism of Testing of Hypotheses (The Simplest Mechanism) %: = 23,000 !: > 23,000 = / ゐ % > ' = 基 咋 %.%) = 1.65 Rejection Region 0 = 23,200 = 100 = 200 = 5% %.%) = 1.65 > ' ゐ ≠ ≠ p ! $$$ Acceptance Region Standardized Test Statistic = / = 23,200 23,000 200 100 = 200 20 = 10