rallyimpacts-161028133026.pptx
- 1. Ecosystem Response to Climate Change Big question: How is the place you care about vulnerable to climate change?
- 5. Warmer Temperatures Figure: Walsh et al. 2014 (NCA) Temperature has increased 1.3属F to 1.9属F since 1895 in the US Greater increases in the north Greater increases in recent decades
- 6. Altered Precipitation Figure: Walsh et al. 2014 (NCA), glisa.umich.edu Changes variable by geography and season More extreme rainfall events, especially in the east Annual precipitation Extreme precipitation
- 7. Sea-level Rise Sea level rose about 1 foot since 1900 Increases in coastal flooding Adapted from J. Boothroyd, Univ. of Rhode Island www.climate.gov/news-features/features/rhode-islands-rising-tide Relative sea level rise: Newport, RI tide gauge Increased about 10 over last 100 years
- 8. Other Observed Changes Warmer Water/Reduced Ice Cover 71% reduction in Great Lakes ice cover (1973-2010) Altered Soil Temperature and Frost Fewer soil frost days Altered freeze-thaw cycles Longer Growing Seasons Arrive weeks earlier More days with leaves Figure: Walsh et al. 2014 (NCA)
- 9. And Everything Else Climate is not the complete story, but the storys not complete without it. Shifley et al. 2014
- 10. How is the climate expected to change over the next century?
- 11. Future Changes: Inherent Uncertainty Figure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA)
- 12. Warmer Temperatures Figure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA) Annual Temperature Temperature rises of 3.0属F and greater Greater increases in the north Greater increases with higher emissions More extreme hot Less extreme cold
- 13. Altered precipitation Winter Precipitation Greater uncertainty Winter: wetter in northern regions Figure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA)
- 14. Altered precipitation Summer Precipitation Greater uncertainty Winter: wetter in northern regions Summer: uncertain, but potentially drier due to warmer temperatures More extreme events Figure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA)
- 15. Drier Conditions Figures: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA) and Wehner et al. 2011 (adapted for NCA) Consecutive Dry Days Extreme Drought
- 16. Sea-level Rise Continued increases of multiple feet Enhanced storm surge Projected of areas affected by sea level rise along Rhode Island sea coast Figure: STORMTOOLS, www.beachsamp.org/resources/understand-risk/
- 17. How could ecosystems be affected?
- 19. Increased Carbon Dioxide Opportunity: Increased productivity from CO2 Increased photosynthesis Increased water use efficiency Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011
- 20. Increased Carbon Dioxide Opportunity: Increased productivity* Increased photosynthesis Increased water use efficiency *Effect likely limited: Limited sink strength Interactions with nitrogen Ozone damage Other reductions in productivity (e.g., moisture stress, disturbance) Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011
- 21. Longer Growing Seasons Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons Evidence of phenological shifts Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth Melillo et al. 2014 (NCA), Nelson Center 2014
- 22. Longer Growing Seasons Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons Evidence of phenological shifts Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth Challenge: Potential risks from altered seasonality Early bud break/loss of cold hardening Frost damage during spring freezing
- 23. Shorter Winter = LessSnow Projected decreases in snow fall, cover, and depth 30-70% decreases in snowfall in eastern US by end of century Low emissions High emissions Figure: Notaro et al. 2014; https://nelson.wisc.edu/ccr/
- 24. Shorter Winter = LessSnow Challenge: Decreased snowpack Increased soil frost and root damage in cold temps Warmer soil temperatures and altered processes Altered soil water recharge Campbell et al. 2009, Groffman et al. Rittenhouse and Rissman 2015
- 25. Shorter Winter = LessSnow , More R ain Precipitation is projected to increase = more rain
- 26. Shorter Winter = LessSnow , More R ain Precipitation is projected to increase = more rain Challenge: Altered stream flow timing and amount Earlier spring peak flows Potential increases in flashiness and episodic high flows Potential declines in summer seasonal stream flow
- 27. Longer Growing Season+ Altered Precip Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress Water loss from soils (evaporation) Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Runoff Precipitation
- 28. Longer Growing Season+ Altered Precip Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress Water loss from soils (evaporation) Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Runoff Precipitation Warmer temps increase water loss
- 29. Longer Growing Season+ Altered Precip Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Water loss from soils (evaporation) Runoff Precipitation Warmer temps increase water loss
- 30. Changes in Habitat Suitability Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species
- 31. Changes in Habitat Suitability Habitat based on: Temperature Precipitation Elevation Latitude Soils Slope & Aspect Land use Competition Management
- 32. Changes in Habitat Suitability Habitat based on: Temperature Precipitation Elevation Latitude Soils Slope & Aspect Land use Competition Management Climate Change Atlas: What happens to tree and bird habitat when climate changes? 134 Trees 147 Birds Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas
- 33. Changes in Habitat Suitability 2070-2100 Low 2070-2100 High High Sugar Maple Current Distribution Importance Value Low Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas
- 34. Changes in Habitat Suitability 2070-2100 Low 2070-2100 High High White Oak Current Distribution Importance Value Low Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas
- 35. Changes in Habitat Suitability Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species Many common tree species are projected to have reduced suitability in the future Changes will occur slowlynot instant dieback Mature and established trees should fare better Immense lags to occupy habitats Critical factors: competition, management, & disturbance
- 36. Extreme Events Challenge: Increased disturbance from extreme events Heavy precipitation Ice storms Heat waves/droughts Wind storms Hurricanes Events are not well modeled VTRANS/VT ANR NY DEC Dan Turner, Cambridge Fire Dept.
- 37. Interactions: Wildfire Challenge: Increased wildfire potential Figure: K. Hayhoe 2013 (NCA)
- 38. Interactions: Wildfire Warmer/drier summers Increased stress or mortality from less suitable conditions Shift toward fire-associated species like oaks and pines Spring/early summer moisture Current regeneration of more mesic species Land use and fragmentation Fire suppression Challenge: Increased wildfire potential Fire may increase: Fire may not change:
- 39. Interactions: Insectsand Disease Pests migrating northward Decreased probability of cold lethal temperatures Accelerated lifecycles Challenge: Increased pests and forest diseases Indirect: Stress from other impacts increases susceptibility Direct: Hemlock woolly adelgid lethal temp: -20 to -30属F Figure: NCA
- 40. Interactions: InvasivePlants Challenge: Increased invasive & noxious plants Indirect: Stress or disturbance from other impacts can affect the potential for invasion or success Direct: Expanded ranges under warmer conditions Increased competitiveness from ability of some plants to take advantage of elevated CO2 Dukes et al. 2009, Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (www.eddmaps.org)
- 41. Interactions: Unexpected Responses Figure (white box): Northern Rockies Fire Science Network Human actions
- 42. Effects on Ecosystems Generally Challenges Generally Opportunities Reduced growth: moisture stress Decline of northern/boreal species Disturbance from extreme events Wildfire potential Forests pests & disease Invasive species Increased productivity: longer growing season Increased productivity: more CO2 Increased habitat for some species What would you add?
- 43. Local Considerations Research and assessments describe broad trends but local conditions make the difference.