The document summarizes the economic situation in the United States from 1981 to 2011 under different presidents. It discusses Ronald Reagan's economic policies of reducing taxes and government spending which led to strong economic growth during his terms. It then discusses the policies and economies under George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, including the 2008 financial crisis and recession at the end of Bush's second term.
The document provides an overview of the United States economy. It notes that the US has the largest economy in the world with a GDP of $14.6 trillion and an unemployment rate of 8.6%. It discusses key sectors of the economy including services, industry, and agriculture. It also outlines US monetary and fiscal policies as well as trade balances and foreign investment. The document examines economic indicators during the 2007-2009 financial crisis and policies used to stimulate recovery.
1) The US recovery in the 1930s was rapid until 1937, when unemployment surged again due to a switch to contractionary fiscal and monetary policy that prolonged the Depression.
2) In 1937, fiscal stimulus from veterans bonuses and Social Security taxes disappeared, reducing the deficit by 2.5% of GDP. Additionally, the Federal Reserve doubled bank reserve requirements, unintentionally causing banks to reduce lending and precipitating recession.
3) The author argues that policymakers today must learn from 1937 and resist prematurely withdrawing stimulus until the economy reaches full employment to avoid derailing the recovery.
State of the Construction and Surety Industry Report (2010)Lisa Dehner
油
The document provides an overview of the state of the construction and surety industries in 2010. It summarizes that the recession officially ended in June 2009 according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, though the economic recovery has been slow. The construction industry continues to struggle with low growth across most sectors. Contractor failures are rising as fewer projects lead to increased competition. Surety industry losses grew nearly 50% from 2008 to 2009 and the fourth surety loss cycle is expected to result in increasing loss ratios through 2012.
Managing risk in an unstable world case studySriniwas Gutti
油
1) The document discusses the importance of assessing political risk alongside economic risk when making investment decisions in emerging markets, as politics can significantly impact financial outcomes.
2) It provides examples where political risk analysis proved more accurate than economic analysis alone in forecasting events like Russia's 1998 financial crisis and the impact of Brazil's 2002 presidential election.
3) Assessing political risk requires understanding a country's stability factors like governance, society, security and economic stability over time, as well as how vulnerable the country may be to different types of internal and external shocks.
The document discusses the growing threat of cyberattacks and why they could cause a global crisis. It notes that over 30 countries have implemented cybersecurity strategies in response. However, the threat is outpacing these initiatives as organizations become more dependent on digital technologies and data. The risks are particularly concerning for critical infrastructure industries like energy, banking, and manufacturing. Companies have significantly increased their cyber insurance coverage in response, with healthcare firms buying 178% more coverage and utilities 98% more on average since 2012. The document concludes that greater data dependence and potential impacts of breaches mean cyberattacks remain one of the top risks for causing a global crisis.
Stephen Jimenez Global Political, Socio Economic And Security Forecast Late 2...StephenJimenez175
油
The document provides forecasts for several political, economic, and security issues from late 2009 through 2010. It predicts:
1) A major war breaking out between Israel and an Iranian-Syrian coalition within the next 18 months, possibly involving nuclear weapons.
2) The US economy will not fully recover in 2010 and unemployment will rise further, with a true fiscal and monetary crisis emerging in the next 4-7 years.
3) Within the next 24 months, the price of a barrel of oil will no longer be pegged to the US dollar, weakening US global economic influence.
During the Obama era, the president faced significant economic challenges including a recession and high unemployment. While able to work with a Democratic congress initially, subsequent years saw more gridlock. Key issues included job growth, GDP levels, healthcare reform, budget deficits, income inequality, environmental policies and race relations. The administration cited positive statistics on private sector job gains but critics argued the recovery was weaker than other presidents.
The document provides an overview of key economic and political events during Barack Obama's presidency from 2009 to 2017. It discusses challenges Obama faced such as the recession and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It also outlines some of Obama's policy priorities like health care reform, stimulus spending, budget negotiations with Congress, immigration reform and climate change. Economic metrics during Obama's time like GDP growth, unemployment, income inequality and housing are addressed.
Monetary policy is an important public policy, but it is not the only one to stabilize our economy and reduce its business cycles. The leading central bank, the Federal Reserve of the U.S., has introduced, after the 2008 global financial crisis, new instruments and unusual facilities to implement its new innovative monetary policy. The financial world and mostly the social scientists watch as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decides on a target interest rate in the federal funds market for the next period. The framework that the FOMC uses to implement monetary policy has changed over the last twelve years and continues to evolve today. Here, we try to evaluate the new instruments and their effectiveness. Before the 2008 financial crisis, policymakers used one set of traditional instruments (tools) to achieve the target rate. However, several policy interventions, introduced soon after the crisis, drastically altered the landscape of the federal funds market and the traditional economic theory. This new and uncertain environment, with enormous reserves and even interest on reserves, necessitated a new set of instruments by the Fed for its monetary policy implementation. Lately, after seven years of zero interest rate, the FOMC began in December 2015 to increase the target rate and then, went back again to a lower one, but many questions arise. How did they evaluate the effectiveness of these new instruments? Is the current federal funds rate the appropriate one for our economic wellbeing? How efficient was so far this ZIR monetary policy after the latest global financial crisis? Why the Fed put all these burdens of its innovated new monetary policy to the poor taxpayers (bail out) and to the risk-averse depositors (bail in)? Is it possible for the Feds policy to prevent the future financial crises? The federal funds rate was very low and affected negatively the financial markets (bubbles were growing), the real rates of interest (it is negative for twelve years), and the deposit rates (they are closed to zero for twelve years). The redistribution of wealth of depositors and taxpayers continues, which means the true economic welfare is falling and a new global recession was in preparation, if the current unfair easy money policy will persist, ignoring the necessity of a prevention of financial crises. Then, it came as an unexpected plague the coronavirus pandemic, following with a new but, the worse in economic history global crisis (chaos).
Lessons from the Great Depression for Economic Recovery in 2009Peter Ho
油
This document discusses lessons from the Great Depression that may help guide economic recovery efforts in 2009. It notes that while the current recession is severe, it is less severe than the Great Depression. It outlines parallels between the two events, including their origins in financial crises and asset price declines. The document discusses four key lessons from the 1930s: 1) small fiscal stimulus had limited effects so a large stimulus is needed; 2) monetary policy can help even at low rates by affecting expectations; 3) stimulus should not be withdrawn too soon; and 4) financial stability and real recovery go hand in hand. The goal is to apply these lessons to end the current recession.
Inflation Views by the author Bud LabitanBud Labitan
油
I release this free book project file here as "Inflation Views" and dedicate it to the friends, members, and acquaintances of ISVI, International Society of Value Investors. "Inflation Views" covers Warren Buffett's writings on inflation from 1977 to 1983. I added data and commentary to help the reader understand that period. In my view, much of the knowledge gained during that time is relevant to us today.
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook by the IMF staff. It finds that:
1) Global economic activity has fallen sharply, with advanced economies experiencing their worst declines since World War 2.
2) The IMF forecasts that the global economy will contract by 0.5-1% in 2009 on average before a gradual recovery in 2010.
3) Turning the global economy around depends critically on concerted policy actions to stabilize financial conditions and support demand through fiscal and monetary policies.
This document analyzes how U.S. foreign aid, military assistance, and foreign military sales from 1950-2007 were influenced more by pragmatism than ideology in response to world events. It examines trends in funding for these programs under different presidential administrations. It also provides specifics on aid given to Ethiopia and Somalia, noting how strategic and geopolitical reasons often drove assistance more than ideological factors.
During the Obama era, the President faced significant economic challenges including a recession and high unemployment. Through policies like the stimulus package and healthcare reform, unemployment was reduced and millions of jobs were created, although economic growth remained slow. Obama also withdrew troops from Iraq and focused on foreign policy issues like the Middle East and climate change in his second term. However, critics argue the stimulus failed to create sufficient jobs and the national debt increased substantially under Obama.
The document discusses the global financial crisis that began in 2008. It provides background on the crisis, including the collapse of major investment banks in the US. It then explains some of the root causes of the crisis, such as the rise of speculative investment and growing household debt. The crisis has had widespread impacts, including bank bailouts, rising unemployment, and falling economic growth in both developed and developing countries like the Philippines. The response from the US government has largely been to bail out financial institutions while ordinary citizens bear the burden. The document criticizes the Arroyo government in the Philippines for implementing neoliberal policies that exacerbate the crisis and calls for united action from workers around the world.
Western governments are hopelessly addicted to deficit financing while refusing to address looming funding issues - with apologies to the embarrassingly foolish Angela Merkel, politicians can no more successfully battle the markets than you and I can successfully battle gravity. Petrocapita is an investment trust built around the premise that demand for energy will continue to move prices higher over the long-term. Petrocapita was created to allow investors to add professionally managed oil & gas assets directly to their portfolios.
The document summarizes the effects of demobilization after World War I, including mass unemployment as industry production levels dropped and soldiers returned home. It led to a recession from 1920-1921 as demand increased for previously rationed goods while supply remained low. Farmers also struggled as overseas markets rebuilt after the war. The policies of Presidents Harding, Coolidge, and Hoover generally favored businesses and a hands-off economic approach. The Great Depression began after the 1929 stock market crash. President Roosevelt launched New Deal programs to provide relief, reform, and recovery through programs like the CCC, WPA, AAA, and Social Security. His policies aimed to stabilize the economy and banking system in his first 100 days in office and faced
Florida: An Economic Overview by Amy BakerAPA Florida
油
- Florida's economy grew 1.4% in 2010 after declining for two years, but personal income fell in Q3 2011 for the first time since 2009. Unemployment remained high at 9.9% in December 2011.
- While housing sales and permits have increased year-over-year, foreclosure rates remain high and home prices are flat. Population growth is expected to increase to around 1.1% by 2030, fueling economic growth.
- The recovery has been slow as the state has yet to regain the 779,700 jobs lost. Challenges remain such as high unemployment, tight credit conditions, and problems in the Eurozone economy.
The document discusses the ongoing economic crisis in Greece and its implications. It provides the following key points:
- Greece has undergone severe austerity measures in recent years which have led to high unemployment, declining GDP, and cuts to pensions and healthcare.
- The new Greek government was elected to negotiate less severe austerity, but European leaders refused to compromise, leaving Greece unable to pay IMF loans.
- A referendum voted against further austerity, increasing the likelihood Greece will exit the Eurozone and potentially revert to its former currency, the Drachma.
- Most Greek debt is held by European institutions so contagion risk to other Eurozone nations is seen as relatively low, though volatility may rise in the short term
This document discusses fiscal policy across different levels of government during the economic crisis. It finds that sub-central governments' (SCG) deficits and spending have historically been less cyclical than central governments'. The crisis negatively impacted SCG revenues through falling tax collections and increased spending pressures. While some SCGs reinforced central stimulus, others implemented measures that countered stimulus. Most central governments increased grants and payments to SCGs and accelerated infrastructure projects to coordinate responses across levels of government.
arifanee.com is world's leading website on the hottest financial news, perspectives and behind the scenes stories. arifanees.com brings you insight and information to inspire and transform your paradigm by enriching your with the best of facts and the vision.
arifanees.com
Information-Inspiration-Transformation
1. The Pakistani economy experienced modest growth of 2.4% in 2010-11, significantly lower than previous years, due to factors like global financial crisis, war on terror, security issues, and devastating floods in 2010.
2. The agriculture sector grew only 0.5%, the lowest since 1992-93, while the services sector contributed most of the modest growth. Gross fixed investment declined substantially to its lowest level in four decades.
3. While the economic environment in Pakistan remained difficult, the government is working on a growth strategy to increase productivity and efficiency, and implementing social programs to support the poor.
Our monthly publication Market Perspectives presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests), are available only for our subscribers.
Many of the world's poorest citizens live in peripheral spaces their states have chosen
not to control. Leaving these spaces ungoverned poses challenges for development, global
terrorism, and conflict. Can the international community induce countries to invest in
controlling their territory? I consider the Bush Administration's foreign policy, which,
following the September 11th attacks, demanded countries take active steps to reduce
terrorist safe havens or risk a US invasion. Drawing upon recent work on the determinants
of government control, I develop a difference-in-difference strategy to test for evidence
of government expansions and implement this test using subnational conflict data from Africa. Across a wide range of specifications and measures, I consistently find precise
estimates suggesting African states did not engage in these expansions. The results suggest that broad-based deterrence is an ineffective policy strategy to reduce ungoverned spaces.
The document provides a summary of key economic indicators in the second quarter of 2010:
- GDP growth slowed to 2.4% in the second quarter, likely to be revised lower, with stronger growth in goods than services.
- Private sector investment increased sharply, especially in equipment and software, suggesting businesses are more confident.
- Government spending contributed significantly to growth in the second quarter, but those gains are not likely sustainable.
- Overall the economy is growing but at a slowing pace, and continued stimulus will be needed to boost job growth.
The document provides a detailed timeline of major financial crises from the 3rd century to the 21st century. It then discusses the causes and impacts of the late 2000s Global Financial Crisis, including the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the plummeting of stock markets and housing prices globally, and increased unemployment and poverty worldwide. Key factors that contributed to the crisis are identified as deregulation of financial markets, complex financial innovations, low interest rates, and risky lending practices like subprime mortgages.
Ronald Reagan was elected president in 1980 on a platform of reducing the size and role of government. Known as "Reaganomics", his economic policies sought to lower taxes, reduce regulations, and control inflation. While critics argued it primarily benefited the wealthy, unemployment decreased during Reagan's terms and economic growth recovered after a recession. However, the national debt also increased substantially. Reagan's confrontational rhetoric towards the Soviet Union contributed to growing internal reforms and the eventual dissolution of the USSR in the early 1990s.
Ronald Reagan was elected president in 1980, defeating Jimmy Carter. Reagan implemented economic policies known as "Reaganomics" which aimed to lower taxes, reduce government spending and regulation, and control inflation. The Reagan years saw strong economic growth and falling unemployment, though budget deficits increased substantially. Meanwhile, Mikhail Gorbachev came to power in the Soviet Union and introduced reforms of openness (glasnost) and restructuring (perestroika) that helped lead to the end of the Cold War.
Monetary policy is an important public policy, but it is not the only one to stabilize our economy and reduce its business cycles. The leading central bank, the Federal Reserve of the U.S., has introduced, after the 2008 global financial crisis, new instruments and unusual facilities to implement its new innovative monetary policy. The financial world and mostly the social scientists watch as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decides on a target interest rate in the federal funds market for the next period. The framework that the FOMC uses to implement monetary policy has changed over the last twelve years and continues to evolve today. Here, we try to evaluate the new instruments and their effectiveness. Before the 2008 financial crisis, policymakers used one set of traditional instruments (tools) to achieve the target rate. However, several policy interventions, introduced soon after the crisis, drastically altered the landscape of the federal funds market and the traditional economic theory. This new and uncertain environment, with enormous reserves and even interest on reserves, necessitated a new set of instruments by the Fed for its monetary policy implementation. Lately, after seven years of zero interest rate, the FOMC began in December 2015 to increase the target rate and then, went back again to a lower one, but many questions arise. How did they evaluate the effectiveness of these new instruments? Is the current federal funds rate the appropriate one for our economic wellbeing? How efficient was so far this ZIR monetary policy after the latest global financial crisis? Why the Fed put all these burdens of its innovated new monetary policy to the poor taxpayers (bail out) and to the risk-averse depositors (bail in)? Is it possible for the Feds policy to prevent the future financial crises? The federal funds rate was very low and affected negatively the financial markets (bubbles were growing), the real rates of interest (it is negative for twelve years), and the deposit rates (they are closed to zero for twelve years). The redistribution of wealth of depositors and taxpayers continues, which means the true economic welfare is falling and a new global recession was in preparation, if the current unfair easy money policy will persist, ignoring the necessity of a prevention of financial crises. Then, it came as an unexpected plague the coronavirus pandemic, following with a new but, the worse in economic history global crisis (chaos).
Lessons from the Great Depression for Economic Recovery in 2009Peter Ho
油
This document discusses lessons from the Great Depression that may help guide economic recovery efforts in 2009. It notes that while the current recession is severe, it is less severe than the Great Depression. It outlines parallels between the two events, including their origins in financial crises and asset price declines. The document discusses four key lessons from the 1930s: 1) small fiscal stimulus had limited effects so a large stimulus is needed; 2) monetary policy can help even at low rates by affecting expectations; 3) stimulus should not be withdrawn too soon; and 4) financial stability and real recovery go hand in hand. The goal is to apply these lessons to end the current recession.
Inflation Views by the author Bud LabitanBud Labitan
油
I release this free book project file here as "Inflation Views" and dedicate it to the friends, members, and acquaintances of ISVI, International Society of Value Investors. "Inflation Views" covers Warren Buffett's writings on inflation from 1977 to 1983. I added data and commentary to help the reader understand that period. In my view, much of the knowledge gained during that time is relevant to us today.
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook by the IMF staff. It finds that:
1) Global economic activity has fallen sharply, with advanced economies experiencing their worst declines since World War 2.
2) The IMF forecasts that the global economy will contract by 0.5-1% in 2009 on average before a gradual recovery in 2010.
3) Turning the global economy around depends critically on concerted policy actions to stabilize financial conditions and support demand through fiscal and monetary policies.
This document analyzes how U.S. foreign aid, military assistance, and foreign military sales from 1950-2007 were influenced more by pragmatism than ideology in response to world events. It examines trends in funding for these programs under different presidential administrations. It also provides specifics on aid given to Ethiopia and Somalia, noting how strategic and geopolitical reasons often drove assistance more than ideological factors.
During the Obama era, the President faced significant economic challenges including a recession and high unemployment. Through policies like the stimulus package and healthcare reform, unemployment was reduced and millions of jobs were created, although economic growth remained slow. Obama also withdrew troops from Iraq and focused on foreign policy issues like the Middle East and climate change in his second term. However, critics argue the stimulus failed to create sufficient jobs and the national debt increased substantially under Obama.
The document discusses the global financial crisis that began in 2008. It provides background on the crisis, including the collapse of major investment banks in the US. It then explains some of the root causes of the crisis, such as the rise of speculative investment and growing household debt. The crisis has had widespread impacts, including bank bailouts, rising unemployment, and falling economic growth in both developed and developing countries like the Philippines. The response from the US government has largely been to bail out financial institutions while ordinary citizens bear the burden. The document criticizes the Arroyo government in the Philippines for implementing neoliberal policies that exacerbate the crisis and calls for united action from workers around the world.
Western governments are hopelessly addicted to deficit financing while refusing to address looming funding issues - with apologies to the embarrassingly foolish Angela Merkel, politicians can no more successfully battle the markets than you and I can successfully battle gravity. Petrocapita is an investment trust built around the premise that demand for energy will continue to move prices higher over the long-term. Petrocapita was created to allow investors to add professionally managed oil & gas assets directly to their portfolios.
The document summarizes the effects of demobilization after World War I, including mass unemployment as industry production levels dropped and soldiers returned home. It led to a recession from 1920-1921 as demand increased for previously rationed goods while supply remained low. Farmers also struggled as overseas markets rebuilt after the war. The policies of Presidents Harding, Coolidge, and Hoover generally favored businesses and a hands-off economic approach. The Great Depression began after the 1929 stock market crash. President Roosevelt launched New Deal programs to provide relief, reform, and recovery through programs like the CCC, WPA, AAA, and Social Security. His policies aimed to stabilize the economy and banking system in his first 100 days in office and faced
Florida: An Economic Overview by Amy BakerAPA Florida
油
- Florida's economy grew 1.4% in 2010 after declining for two years, but personal income fell in Q3 2011 for the first time since 2009. Unemployment remained high at 9.9% in December 2011.
- While housing sales and permits have increased year-over-year, foreclosure rates remain high and home prices are flat. Population growth is expected to increase to around 1.1% by 2030, fueling economic growth.
- The recovery has been slow as the state has yet to regain the 779,700 jobs lost. Challenges remain such as high unemployment, tight credit conditions, and problems in the Eurozone economy.
The document discusses the ongoing economic crisis in Greece and its implications. It provides the following key points:
- Greece has undergone severe austerity measures in recent years which have led to high unemployment, declining GDP, and cuts to pensions and healthcare.
- The new Greek government was elected to negotiate less severe austerity, but European leaders refused to compromise, leaving Greece unable to pay IMF loans.
- A referendum voted against further austerity, increasing the likelihood Greece will exit the Eurozone and potentially revert to its former currency, the Drachma.
- Most Greek debt is held by European institutions so contagion risk to other Eurozone nations is seen as relatively low, though volatility may rise in the short term
This document discusses fiscal policy across different levels of government during the economic crisis. It finds that sub-central governments' (SCG) deficits and spending have historically been less cyclical than central governments'. The crisis negatively impacted SCG revenues through falling tax collections and increased spending pressures. While some SCGs reinforced central stimulus, others implemented measures that countered stimulus. Most central governments increased grants and payments to SCGs and accelerated infrastructure projects to coordinate responses across levels of government.
arifanee.com is world's leading website on the hottest financial news, perspectives and behind the scenes stories. arifanees.com brings you insight and information to inspire and transform your paradigm by enriching your with the best of facts and the vision.
arifanees.com
Information-Inspiration-Transformation
1. The Pakistani economy experienced modest growth of 2.4% in 2010-11, significantly lower than previous years, due to factors like global financial crisis, war on terror, security issues, and devastating floods in 2010.
2. The agriculture sector grew only 0.5%, the lowest since 1992-93, while the services sector contributed most of the modest growth. Gross fixed investment declined substantially to its lowest level in four decades.
3. While the economic environment in Pakistan remained difficult, the government is working on a growth strategy to increase productivity and efficiency, and implementing social programs to support the poor.
Our monthly publication Market Perspectives presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests), are available only for our subscribers.
Many of the world's poorest citizens live in peripheral spaces their states have chosen
not to control. Leaving these spaces ungoverned poses challenges for development, global
terrorism, and conflict. Can the international community induce countries to invest in
controlling their territory? I consider the Bush Administration's foreign policy, which,
following the September 11th attacks, demanded countries take active steps to reduce
terrorist safe havens or risk a US invasion. Drawing upon recent work on the determinants
of government control, I develop a difference-in-difference strategy to test for evidence
of government expansions and implement this test using subnational conflict data from Africa. Across a wide range of specifications and measures, I consistently find precise
estimates suggesting African states did not engage in these expansions. The results suggest that broad-based deterrence is an ineffective policy strategy to reduce ungoverned spaces.
The document provides a summary of key economic indicators in the second quarter of 2010:
- GDP growth slowed to 2.4% in the second quarter, likely to be revised lower, with stronger growth in goods than services.
- Private sector investment increased sharply, especially in equipment and software, suggesting businesses are more confident.
- Government spending contributed significantly to growth in the second quarter, but those gains are not likely sustainable.
- Overall the economy is growing but at a slowing pace, and continued stimulus will be needed to boost job growth.
The document provides a detailed timeline of major financial crises from the 3rd century to the 21st century. It then discusses the causes and impacts of the late 2000s Global Financial Crisis, including the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the plummeting of stock markets and housing prices globally, and increased unemployment and poverty worldwide. Key factors that contributed to the crisis are identified as deregulation of financial markets, complex financial innovations, low interest rates, and risky lending practices like subprime mortgages.
Ronald Reagan was elected president in 1980 on a platform of reducing the size and role of government. Known as "Reaganomics", his economic policies sought to lower taxes, reduce regulations, and control inflation. While critics argued it primarily benefited the wealthy, unemployment decreased during Reagan's terms and economic growth recovered after a recession. However, the national debt also increased substantially. Reagan's confrontational rhetoric towards the Soviet Union contributed to growing internal reforms and the eventual dissolution of the USSR in the early 1990s.
Ronald Reagan was elected president in 1980, defeating Jimmy Carter. Reagan implemented economic policies known as "Reaganomics" which aimed to lower taxes, reduce government spending and regulation, and control inflation. The Reagan years saw strong economic growth and falling unemployment, though budget deficits increased substantially. Meanwhile, Mikhail Gorbachev came to power in the Soviet Union and introduced reforms of openness (glasnost) and restructuring (perestroika) that helped lead to the end of the Cold War.
The document discusses the rise in US debt from 1945 to present day. It attributes much of the increased debt to tax cuts in the 1980s that reduced revenues, increased military spending during the Cold War and recent wars, and rising entitlement program costs. While debt was almost paid off by 1980, tax cuts and increased defense spending under Reagan dramatically increased the debt load. The top 1% benefited greatly from tax cuts while wages stagnated for most Americans. High military spending and lack of oversight of social programs also contributed significantly to growing debt levels.
Ronald Reagan believed that government was the problem, not the solution. His economic policies, known as Reaganomics, aimed to reduce government spending, taxes, and regulation to stimulate economic growth. Reaganomics emphasized reducing income tax rates, especially for the wealthy, in order to incentivize business investment and job creation. While critics argued it benefited only the rich, proponents claimed it led to increased tax revenues and widespread economic prosperity in the 1980s.
The document summarizes key aspects of the Obama era for the United States across multiple areas:
- Obama faced significant economic challenges when taking office during a recession and implemented the TARP program and Keynesian economic policies to stimulate the economy.
- Job growth occurred but was slower than under previous presidents. Unemployment remained high for many years after the recession.
- GDP growth did not reach 3% in any single year under Obama, which had not happened previously.
- The housing sector recovered slowly from the crisis and recession. Income inequality and numbers in poverty increased over Obama's terms.
- Obama focused on environmental issues and clean energy but domestic oil and gas production also increased significantly during his
The document discusses economic policy in the United States including debates around deficits and the national debt. It outlines different economic theories that influence policymaking like Keynesianism, monetarism, and supply-side economics. Key policies are described such as Reaganomics, the Congressional Budget Act, and acts aimed at balancing the budget. The roles of different government bodies in economic policymaking are also summarized.
Introduction
Government role on taxation/spending
Who was Bill Clinton?
Bill Clinton Presidency
Budget Deficits
US Economy/Clinton
Banking/Financial Services / Clinton
Income inequality
Job Creation/Clinton
PMI Index
Corporate Tax
Medium Income
Housing Starts
Interest Rates
Trade Deficits
"The Economy under President Obama" tells the story of the 2009-2016 period using a series of economic and budgetary charts. Definitive non-partisan sources such as the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and Congressional Budget Office (CBO) are used, along with major media sources.
The presentation covers the Great Recession and response, fiscal policies, trends in major economic variables, income inequality and the ACA/Obamacare. Key questions covered include: 1) What did President Obama and Congress do to help or hinder the recovery? 2) What were the important decisions President Obama had to make? 3) How much of the national debt addition was due to the President's policies? 4) What were the trends in the key economic and budget variables? 5) What economic and budgetary legacy did he pass along?
The document argues that President Obama's economic policies are working and the economy is improving under his leadership. It provides various economic indicators and data to support this, such as GDP growth returning to positive, private sector job growth outpacing Bush, and unemployment declining in line with past recoveries. It also argues that Democrats have stronger economic records than Republicans, citing lower deficits and stronger manufacturing under Democratic administrations. Finally, it discusses economic concepts to argue the current GDP and unemployment rates are normal and not signs of failure.
The document summarizes how the US national debt grew significantly over the past few decades. It traces the sources of debt to multiple wars since WWII, tax cuts in the 1980s that reduced revenues, increased military and entitlement spending, and the 2008 financial crisis. While debt decreased under President Clinton, it ballooned under Reagan and both Bush administrations. The Republican approach is criticized for disproportionately benefiting wealthy individuals and corporations through tax and regulatory policies.
The US economy from 1972-1975 was struggling with high unemployment, stagnant industrial output, and high inflation. Unemployment was over 7% and industrial output had declined in 6 of the past 7 months. Inflation was rising without signs of slowing. To address this stagflation, an expansionary fiscal policy of tax cuts and increased government spending was proposed to stimulate aggregate demand and boost the economy. However, Congress rejected this plan and instead enacted their own tax cuts and public service jobs. While the economy recovered by 1976, high inflation persisted and unemployment remained above 6% until 1978 as the Federal Reserve prioritized controlling inflation over full employment.
Minsky held that government spending and deficits were important tools for achieving full employment and price stability. However, in later writings he expressed concern that Reagan-era policies had undermined the tax base, led to large budget deficits focused on non-productive spending, and increased foreign holdings of U.S. debt. This made the economy dependent on continued deficit spending and vulnerable to a loss of confidence in the dollar or high inflation if deficits continued unchecked. Minsky still saw deficits as useful for stabilization, but argued the tax and spending regime needed reform to balance the budget under reasonable economic conditions.
The document summarizes key economic indicators from 1940-1980 in the United States. During this period, the minimum wage increased from $0.43/hr to $3.10/hr while average salaries rose from $1,299 to $15,757. National debt grew substantially over the decades from $242 billion to $1.7 trillion. Unemployment fluctuated between around 3-10% depending on economic conditions like wars, recessions, and energy crises. The 1970s saw higher inflation and lower economic growth compared to previous decades.
Presidential Economic Performance: Comparing Obama, Clinton and ReaganDavid Doney
油
1. The document compares the economic performance of Presidents Reagan, Clinton, and Obama across 12 metrics including GDP growth, unemployment, job creation, inflation, spending, revenue, deficits, income and wealth.
2. It finds that GDP growth and job creation were highest under Reagan and Clinton, while inflation was best under Clinton and Obama. Federal spending was highest under Obama while revenues were highest under Clinton.
3. Budget deficits were lowest under Clinton, while the national debt increased the most under Obama and least under Clinton. Real household income increased the most under Clinton, while household wealth grew under all three but was highest by Obama's last year.
Chapter 20 Resurgence of Conservatism.pptxRyanMcElroy13
油
This document provides an overview of events during Ronald Reagan's presidency from 1980-1992, including his economic policies known as "Reaganomics", increases in military spending and the national debt, deregulation of industries, Supreme Court nominations, and foreign policy decisions. The Iran-Contra affair is summarized as a scandal involving secret arms sales to Iran and funding of Nicaraguan Contras in violation of Congress. Reagan's interventions in Central America, including support for El Salvador's government and funding Contras to overthrow Nicaragua's Sandinista regime, are also covered.
Presidents of the United States Part 5a of 8Monika Somogyi
油
President George H.W. Bush held the presidency from 1989 to 1993. During his term, he oversaw the end of the Cold War and led a multinational coalition in the Gulf War. Domestically, he signed major legislation including the Clean Air Act Amendments and Americans with Disabilities Act. However, a faltering economy and rising discontent at home weakened his reelection bid. Overall, Bush demonstrated strong leadership abroad but faced challenges in satisfying domestic priorities.
The Great Recession of 2008 was the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. It originated in the United States due to a housing bubble and lax lending practices that led to many subprime mortgages being issued. As the housing market declined, it caused a financial crisis that spread globally. Major financial institutions collapsed and unemployment rose sharply in the US and Europe. The recession had significant impacts including job losses, declines in GDP, real estate prices and stock markets falling worldwide.
The document provides a summary of the presidencies of several US presidents from Nixon to George W. Bush. It notes that Nixon created revenue sharing but ended up giving more power to the federal government. His presidency was marred by the Watergate scandal which led to his resignation. Ford pardoned Nixon but struggled with a weak economy and rising inflation and unemployment. Carter focused on the economy but was hampered by issues in the Middle East including the Iran hostage crisis. Reagan appealed to conservatives and his "Reaganomics" policies aimed to boost the economy through tax cuts and increased military spending which contributed to economic recovery. The Cold War ended under H.W. Bush but a recession emerged. Clinton oversaw economic growth but his health
4. REAGONOMICSThe four pillars of Reagan's economic policy were to: Reduce government spending,Reduce income and capital gains marginal tax rates,Reduce government regulation,Control the money supply to reduce inflation.
5. HOW DID THE REAGAN TAX CUTS AFFECT THE U.S. TREASURY?Total federal revenues doubled from just over $517 billion in 1980 to more than $1 trillion in 1990. In constant inflation-adjusted dollars, this was a 28 percent increase in revenue.
6. As a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP), federal revenues declined only slightly from 18.9 percent in 1980 to 18 percent in 1990.
7. Revenues from individual income taxes climbed from just over $244 billion in 1980 to nearly $467 billion in 1990. In inflation-adjusted dollars, this amounts to a 25 percent increase.Other policies HOW DID REAGAN'S POLICIES AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH?This economic boom lasted 92 months without a recession, from November 1982 to July 1990, the longest period of sustained growth during peacetime and the second-longest period of sustained growth in U.S. history. The growth in the economy lasted more than twice as long as the average period of expansions since World War II.
8. The American economy grew by about one-third in real inflation-adjusted terms. This was the equivalent of adding the entire economy of East and West Germany or two-thirds of Japan's economy to the U.S. economy.
9. From 1950 to 1973, real economic growth in the U.S. economy averaged 3.6 percent per year. From 1973 to 1982, it averaged only 1.6 percent. The Reagan economic boom restored the more usual growth rate as the economy averaged 3.5 percent in real growth from the beginning of 1983 to the end of 1990.HOW DID REAGAN'S POLICIES AFFECT FEDERAL SPENDING?Federal spending more than doubled, growing from almost $591 billion in 1980 to $1.25 trillion in 1990. In constant inflation-adjusted dollars, this was an increase of 35.8 percent.
10. As a percentage of GDP, federal expenditures grew slightly from 21.6 percent in 1980 to 21.8 percent in 1990.
11. Contrary to popular myth, while inflation-adjusted defense spending increased by 50 percent between 1980 and 1989, it was curtailed when the Cold War ended and fell by 15 percent between 1989 and 1993. However, means-tested entitlements, which do not include Social Security or Medicare, rose by over 102 percent between 1980 and 1993, and they have continued climbing ever since.
12. Total spending on all national security programs never equaled domestic spending, even when Social Security, Medicare, and net interest are excluded from domestic totals. In addition, national security spending fell during the Administration of the senior President Bush, while domestic spending increased in both mandatory and discretionary accounts
15. George H. W. Bush lead one ofworst economy policy, but heis an economist.He involves form Republican PartyDuring his term inflation, unemployment and public debt has grown.It was main reasons of his defeat in reelection.
16. Gross Domestic Product:$7,536 billions, increase during the term 6.5%Federal Spendings:$1,615 billions, increase during the term 7.8%Federal Debt:$4,987 billions, increase during the term 32.7%Inflation:Overall inflation during the term 17.75%Unemployment:Rate of unemployment reached 7.8%,and 14.2% of Americans lived in poverty.
18. FAILURES:Rise of unemploymentRise of inflationRise of public debtACHIEVEMENTS:End of Cold WarUSSR collapseKuwaitprotectionReduction of weaponary
20. Clinton presided over the continuation of an economic expansion that would later become the longest period of peace-time economic expansion in American historyWilliam Jefferson油"Bill"油Clinton油served asthe油42nd油PresidentoftheUnited States油from 1993 to 2001
21. Bill Clinton cut the military drastically. Its called the peace dividend, one of those nice-sounding phrases, very devastating. It was a 25, 30 percent cut in the military. President Bush has never made up for that. We our Army had been at 725,000; its down to 500,000.Numerous military events occurred during Clinton's presidency. The油Battle of Mogadishu油also occurred in油Somalia油in 1993. During the operation, two U.S.油MH-60 Black Hawk油helicopters were shot down byrocket-propelled grenade油attacks to their油tail rotors, trapping soldiers behind enemy lines.
22. The table below shows the annual federal spending, gross federal debt, and gross domestic product
23. THE LOWEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SINCE 1969 AND MORE THAN 20 MILLION NEW JOBS.油In 1992, when Bill Clinton was elected President, the American economy was barely creating jobs, wages were stagnant, and the unemployment rate was 7.5 percent. His bold, three-part economic strategy focused on three objectives: fiscal discipline, investing in education, health care, science and technology, and opening foreign markets. Todays jobs release provides more evidence that this strategy is working:The Unemployment Rate Was 4.2 Percent in 1999 -- the Lowest Since 1969.油The unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in December bringing the average unemployment rate for 1999 to 4.2 percent -- the lowest since 1969. The unemployment rate has fallen for seven years in a row. It has remained below 5 percent for 30 months in a row. For women the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent -- the lowest since 1953
25. Clinton's job approval rating ranged from 36% in mid-1993 to 64% in late 1993 and early 1994. In his second term, his rating consistently ranged from the high-50s to the high-60s.After his impeachment proceedings in 1998 and 1999, Clinton's rating reached its highest point at 73% approval.油He finished with an approval rating of 68%, which matched those of油Ronald Reagan油and油Franklin D. Roosevelt油as the highest ratings for departing presidents in the modern era.
27. The economic policy of the George W. Bush administration was a combination of tax cuts, expenditures for fighting two wars, and a free-market ideology intended to de-emphasize the role of government in the private sector. He advocated the ownership society, premised on the concepts of individual accountability, less government, and the owning of property.When we look back someday at the catastrophe that was the Bush administration, we will think of many things: the tragedy of the Iraq war, the shame of Guant叩namo and Abu Ghraib, the erosion of civil liberties. The damage done to the American economy does not make front-page headlines every day, but the repercussions will be felt beyond the lifetime of anyone reading this.
30. 2008 economic crisis and recessionThe last year of Bush's second term was dominated by an economic recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) marked December 2007, the month with the highest payroll employment numbers, as the high point of American economic production with output declining from then on to the present.GDP declined by an annualized -0.5% in the third quarter and -3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2008.The two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth met the "rule of thumb" definition of a recession, confirming the NBER's declaration of a recession.Bush responded to the early signs of economic problems with lump-sum tax rebates and other stimulative measures in the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. In March 2008, Bear Stearns, a major US investment bank heavily invested in subprime mortgage derivatives, began to go under. Rumors of low cash reserves dragged Bear's stock price down while lenders to Bear began to withdraw their cash. The Federal Reserve funneled an emergency loan to Bear through JP Morgan Chase. (As an investment bank, Bear could not borrow from the Fed but JP Morgan Chase, a commercial bank, could).The Fed ended up brokering an agreement for the sale of Bear to JP Morgan Chase that took place at the end of March. In July, IndyMac went under and had to be placed in conservatorship. In the middle of the summer it seemed like recession might be avoided even though high gas prices threatened consumers and credit problems threatened investment markets, but the economy entered crisis in the fall. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were also put under conservatorship in early September.A few days later, Lehman Brothers began to falter. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, who in July had publicly expressed concern that continuous bailouts would lead to moral hazard, decided to let Lehman fail. The fallout from Lehman's failure snowballed into market-wide panic. AIG, an insurance company, had sold credit default swaps insuring against Lehman's failure under the assumption that such a failure was extremely unlikely.Without enough cash to pay out its Lehman-related debts, AIG went under and was nationalized. Credit markets locked up and catastrophe seemed all too likely. Paulson proposed providing liquidity to financial markets by having the government buy up debt related to bad mortgages with a Troubled Asset Relief Program. Congressional Democrats advocated an alternative policy of investing in financial companies directly. Congress passed the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, which authorized both policies.Throughout the crisis, Bush seemed to defer to Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. He kept a low public profile on the issue with his most significant role being a public television address where he announced that a bailout was necessary otherwise the United States "could experience a long and painful recession."
31. Bush'sEconomicMistakesBush's Budget BlundersThe Return to DeficitsIraqTaxCuts for the RichFinancial RegulationTellingUs to Go ShoppingEnergy PolicyA State of DenialThe MuddledBailout- Economic growth. U.S. output has expanded faster than in most advanced economies since 2000. The IMF reports that real U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an average annual rate of 2.2% over the period 2001-2008 (including its forecast for the current year). President Bush will leave to his successor an economy 19% larger than the one he inherited from President Clinton. This U.S. expansion compares with 14% by France, 13% by Japan and just 8% by Italy and Germany over the same period. The latest ICP findings, published by the World Bank in its World Development Indicators 2008, also show that GDP per capita in the U.S. reached $41,813 (in purchasing power parity dollars) in 2005. This was a third higher than the United Kingdom's, 37% above Germany's and 38% more than Japan's. - Household consumption. The ICP study found that the average per-capita consumption of the U.S. population (citizens and illegal immigrants combined) was second only to Luxembourg's, out of 146 countries covered in 2005. The U.S. average was $32,045. This was well above the levels in the UK ($25,155), Canada ($23,526), France ($23,027) and Germany ($21,742). China stood at $1,751. - Health services. The U.S. spends easily the highest amount per capita ($6,657 in 2005) on health, more than double that in Britain. But because of private funding (55% of the total) the burden on the U.S. taxpayer (9.1% of GDP) is kept to similar levels as France and Germany. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that 84.7% of the U.S. population was covered by health insurance in 2007, an increase of 3.6 million people over 2006. The uninsured can receive treatment in hospitals at the expense of private insurance holders. While life expectancy is influenced by lifestyles and not just access to health services, the World Bank nevertheless reports that average life expectancy in the U.S. rose to 78 years in 2006 (the same as Germany's), from 77 in 2000. - Income and wealth distribution. The latest World Bank estimates show that the richest 20% of U.S. households had a 45.8% share of total income in 2000, similar to the levels in the U.K. (44.0%) and Israel (44.9%). In 65 other countries the richest quintile had a larger share than in the U.S.... - Employment. The U.S. employment rate, measured by the percentage of people of working age (16-65 years) in jobs, has remained high by international standards. The latest OECD figures show a rate of 71.7% in 2006. This was more than five percentage points above the average for the euro area. The U.S. unemployment rate averaged 4.7% from 2001-2007. This compares with a 5.2% average rate during President Clinton's term of office, and is well below the euro zone average of 8.3% since 2000.
32. President Bush has presided over the weakest eight-year span for the U.S. economy in decades, according to an analysis of key data, and economists across the ideological spectrum increasingly view his two terms as a time of little progress on the nation's thorniest fiscal challenges.