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RisikoFilosofering 
Human Factors mastermind-seminar 
2. desember 2014
If you think that your 
only tool is a 
hammer; every 
problem starts 
looking like a nail.
Dette kan vi!
Lav sannsynlighet Middels sannsynlighet H?y sannsynlighet 
Konsekvens 10-4 - 10-5 10-3 - 10-4 10-2 - 10-3 10-1 - 10-2 > 10-1 
Meget stor 
Stor 
Middels 
Lav 
Meget lav
Now the 
stakes are 
even higher!!
Risiko = Risiko? 
Objektiv 
risiko 
Risiko-persepsjon 
Risiko??? 
Risiko-toleranse 
Realisert 
risiko
RisikoFilosofering 021214
RisikoFilosofering 021214
Persepsjon! 
Tillit 
Erfaring 
Etikk Kunnskap 
Kontroll Skrekk Frivillighet 
F?lelser ?Bias? 
¡­¡­.. 
Holdning 
¡­¡­. 
?System 
I vs. II?
R = K * S 
>> 
Beslutningsunderlag 
!
10E-4 
10E-6 
Uakseptabel 
ALARP omr?det 
Neglisjerbart 
Risikoniv?
Akseptabel eller ikke?
Risiko? 
Tvetydighet 
Uvitenhet 
Kunnskap 
Usikkerhet 
om muligheter 
Bra 
Kunnskap 
om sannsynlighet 
Frank Knight 
Andrew Stirling 
Risiko!! 
Problem Bra
10E-4 
10E-6 
Uakseptabel 
ALARP omr?det 
Neglisjerbart
www.mindtherisk.com 
Takk for oppmerksomhet! 
Sp?rsm?l? Diskusjon!

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RisikoFilosofering 021214

Editor's Notes

  • #12: RAC are situation dependent ¨C existing vs. new Depent also on many other factors
  • #13: Risiko blir aldri ?0?, faren inneholder jo ofte noe som er ?nsket og redusering av sannsynlighet kan bli begrenset av ?konomiske rammer, p? operasjonelle grunn, samfunnsnytte, politisk akseptans, ¡­ S? vi er nesten alltid n?dt til ? akseptere et visst risiko ¨C noen ganger kalt restrisiko S? er det spesielle omstendigheter. Tenk spesielt p?: Hendelser med meget stor konsekvens og lav sannsynlighet. Noen ganger er en stor konsekvens rett og slett uakseptabel, (nesten) uansett sannsynlighet. Omvendt gjelder eksempelet med lotteri: lav sannsynlighet at resultat er bra, du er jo nesten sikkert p? at dine penger er borte¡­ men man tar sjansen likevel siden tapet er lavt mens mulighet p? liten sjanse at man vinner mye er veldig ?nsket (i tilfelle lotteri er det tydelig at risiko kan v?re noe positivt).
  • #15: ?allmenn akseptert? og ?allmenn ikke akseptert?