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Copyright © 2016 R&O ANALYTICS Pty Ltd. All rights reserved
By Dr. Luis Martinez Tipe
Uncertainty = Risk + Opportunity
in Mine Planning

What is the effect of the ‘What if..?’ uncertainties on
project economics/What are the best strategies to follow
2

Despite uncertainty being all about us, uncertainty is often
denied....why?
3
One reason for suppression is clear: People do not like to be unsure and instead
prefer to have everything sharply defined

There is still some reliance from decision makers in working with
a given expected mine value number ..Why?
4

“the flaw of averages in mine project evaluation”
5

Mining imperative calls for new alternatives and tools to analyse
and evaluate a mine operation in the face of uncertainty
6
Mining companies can’t just dabble
at the edges by keep using
traditional processes and techniques
which do not consider uncertainty.
Time

General mine project simulation-optimisation framework
7
Mine Planning is a Non- Linear process

Quantifying the effect of the uncertainty in orebody modelling
8

Quantifying the effect of the uncertainty in metal prices
9

Uncertainty and risk in open pit mine planning and design
(ultimate pit and production scheduling final limits)
10

Going beyond risk analysis
Sunday, 30 October 2016
So, What can we do to protect from uncertainty?
How can we minimise risk and maximise opportunities…

Real options as tool to manage uncertainty in decision making
12

Silver project valuation – using DCF
13

Dynamic discounted cash flow and
ENPV = NPV + ValOption
14
ValOption = $9.68 - $8.49 = $1.19

Silver project - real options analysis
15

Add value by identifying optimal strategies over time in the face
of uncertainty
16
Shift of paradigm
from numbers to
distribution of
probabilities

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Risk Course_�ݺ�ߣs_Nov 2016 v2

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