In this paper, we consider an AAI with two types of insurance business with p-thinning dependent
claims risk, diversify claims risk by purchasing proportional reinsurance, and invest in a stock with Heston
model price process, a risk-free bond, and a credit bond in the financial market with the objective of maximizing
the expectation of the terminal wealth index effect, and construct the wealth process of AAI as well as the the
model of robust optimal reinsurance-investment problem is obtained, using dynamic programming, the HJB
equation to obtain the pre-default and post-default reinsurance-investment strategies and the display expression
of the value function, respectively, and the sensitivity of the model parameters is analyzed through numerical
experiments to obtain a realistic economic interpretation. The model as well as the results in this paper are a
generalization and extension of the results of existing studies.
This document summarizes a research paper that examines the optimal investment, consumption, and life insurance selection problem for a wage earner. The problem is modeled using a financial market with one risk-free asset and one risky jump-diffusion asset, along with an insurance market composed of multiple life insurance companies. The goal is to maximize the wage earner's expected utility from consumption during life, wealth at retirement or death, by choosing an optimal investment, consumption, and insurance strategy. The authors use dynamic programming to characterize the optimal solution and prove existence and uniqueness of a solution to the associated nonlinear Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation.
This document summarizes a research paper that assesses risk for ancillary power grid services using value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk measures. It begins by introducing ancillary services and the financial risks involved for system operators. It then provides mathematical definitions of value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk as risk measures. Specifically, it defines value-at-risk as the maximum potential loss that will not be exceeded at a given probability level. Conditional value-at-risk is defined as the expected loss given that the loss exceeds the value-at-risk. The paper applies these risk measures to analyze the risk of different ancillary service portfolios and discusses how conditional value-at-risk optimization
Fair valuation of participating life insurance contracts with jump riskAlex Kouam
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A C++ based program which prices the fair value of a participating life insurance whereby the underlying follows a Kou process and the insurer's default occurs only at contract's maturity.
Measuring and allocating portfolio risk capital in the real worldAlexander Decker
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This document discusses measuring and allocating portfolio risk capital using value-at-risk and expected shortfall. Daily stock price data from the London Stock Exchange over 3 years was used to calculate the risk measures for portfolios in different sectors. The risk capital required for each stock was determined using a fair allocation principle. The results showed that stocks with higher average returns and lower volatility required less risk capital. The portfolios with the lowest quantified risk amounts were mining, media, financial services, banks and the top 10 FTSE companies portfolios.
:In this paper, we consider the equity premium puzzle under a general utility function. We derive that
the optimal strategy under a general utility function approximate the optimal strategy under the special utility
function. This result posed in the present paper can be regarded as a generalization of the work by Gong and
Zou [13]
Optimal Portfolio Selection for a Defined Contribution Pension Fund with Retu...BRNSS Publication Hub
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This paper investigates the optimal investment strategies for a defined contribution pension fund with return clauses of premiums with interest under the mean-variance criterion. Using the actuarial symbol, we formalize the problem as a continuous time mean-variance stochastic optimal control. The pension fund manager considers investments in risk and risk-free assets to increase the remaining accumulated funds to meet the retirement needs of the remaining members. Using the variational inequalities methods, we established an optimized problem from the extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman Equations and solved the optimized problem to obtain the optimal investment strategies for both risk-free and risky assets and also the efficient frontier of the pension member. Furthermore, we evaluated analytically and numerically the effect of various parameters of the optimal investment strategies on it. We observed that the optimal investment strategy for the risky asset decreases with an increase in the risk-averse level, initial wealth, and the predetermined interest rate.
This document summarizes a research article that investigates optimal investment strategies for a defined contribution pension fund with return clauses for premiums paid with a predetermined interest rate under a mean-variance framework. The researchers develop a continuous-time stochastic optimal control model to formalize the problem. They obtain the optimal investment strategies for risk-free and risky assets by solving the extended Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations using variational inequality methods. The optimal strategies are affected by parameters like risk aversion, initial wealth, and interest rate.
This document presents research on optimal portfolio selection for a defined contribution pension fund. It considers investments in risk-free and risky assets to maximize the remaining accumulated funds for retirement. Using variational inequality methods, the researchers establish an optimized problem from the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations and solve it to obtain the optimal investment strategies. They find that the optimal investment in the risky asset decreases with increases in risk aversion, initial wealth, and the predetermined interest rate. The researchers also evaluate the effect of various parameters on the optimal investment strategies analytically and numerically.
Measuring the behavioral component of financial fluctuation: an analysis bas...SYRTO Project
Ìý
Measuring the behavioral component of financial fluctuation: an analysis based on the S&P500 - Caporin M., Corazzini L., Costola M. June, 27 2013. IFABS 2013 - Posters session.
Market risk and liquidity of the risky bondsIlya Gikhman
Ìý
This document discusses modeling the effect of liquidity on risky bond pricing using a reduced form approach. It begins by presenting a simplified model where default can only occur at maturity. It then extends this to a discrete time approximation for default occurrence. The key concepts discussed are:
- Defining bid and ask prices for risk-free and corporate bonds to model liquidity spread
- Using a single price framework and extending it to account for liquidity spread
- Modeling the corporate bond price as a random variable based on default/no default scenarios
- Defining market and spot prices of bonds and the associated market risks for buyers and sellers
- Estimating the recovery rate and default probability given observations of spot prices over time
This document presents a new statistical physics model for analyzing stock market fluctuations based on the contact process model from statistical physics. The contact process model is used to model the spread of information in the stock market and how it affects investor positions and subsequently stock prices. Simulation results from the one-dimensional contact process model are presented and show fat-tailed distributions and long memory effects in returns that are consistent with real stock market data. Statistical analysis techniques are applied to study the fluctuation characteristics of stock price returns from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.
Abstract. Regulations of the market require disclosure of information about the nature and extent of risks arising from the trades of the market instruments. There are several significant drawbacks in fixed income pricing modeling. In this paper we interpret a corporate bond price as a random variable. In this case the spot price does not a complete characteristic of the price. The price should be specified by the spot price as well as its value of market risk. This interpretation is similar to a random variable in Probability Theory where an estimate of the random variable completely defined by its cumulative distribution function. The buyer market risk is the value of the chance that the spot price is higher than it is implied by the market scenarios. First we quantify credit risk of the corporate bonds and then consider marked-to-market pricing adjustment to bond price. In the case when issuer of the corporate bond is the counterparty of the bond buyer counterparty and credit risks are coincide.
The document presents the results of creating and back-testing a factor-based long-short global tactical asset allocation strategy using 10 years of monthly data on 10 developed country equity index futures. Three 2-factor portfolios were constructed using value, momentum, and volatility factors. The portfolio combining value and volatility factors performed best with an annualized return of 7.24% and average drawdown of 13.01%.
Presentation final _FINANCE MARKET CRASH PREDICTIONNVictor Romanov
Ìý
The document discusses using multifractal and wavelet analysis to predict financial market crises. It analyzes various financial market indices during crisis periods between 1997-2008. Fractals are nonlinear patterns that repeat at different scales and can describe financial market prices better than traditional linear models. Multifractal analysis examines the scaling behavior of partition functions to estimate the fractal dimension spectrum, whose width may serve as an indicator for predicting crashes. The methodology involves preprocessing time series data, computing partition functions over varying scales, and using the results to analyze changes before and after crisis periods.
The document discusses using multifractal and wavelet analysis to predict financial market crises. It analyzes various financial market indices during crisis periods from 1987 to 2008. Fractals are described as shapes that appear similar at different scales and have non-integer dimensions. Financial markets exhibit fractal properties with long-term memory and volatility clustering. The researchers use techniques like Hurst exponent analysis, time series partitioning, and calculating partition functions and fractal dimension spectra to analyze indices for signs of an impending crisis. The width of the multifractal spectrum is proposed as an indicator, with wider widths preceding crashes.
Bid and Ask Prices Tailored to Traders' Risk Aversion and Gain Propension: a ...Waqas Tariq
Ìý
Risky asset bid and ask prices “tailored†to the risk-aversion and the gain-propension of the traders are set up. They are calculated through the principle of the Extended Gini premium, a standard method used in non-life insurance. Explicit formulae for the most common stochastic distributions of risky returns, are calculated. Sufficient and necessary conditions for successful trading are also discussed.
The document outlines two sessions on risk management in banking and finance. Session 9 will cover risk measures, regulatory aspects, and basic principles, including defining risk measures, academic vs accounting standards, desirable properties, and estimating risks from samples. Session 10 will cover correlations, copulas, modeling dependencies between risks, diversification effects, comparing risks under dependence vs independence, and analyzing individual risk contributions. Examples of applications in finance, environmental risks, and credit risk are also provided.
The document outlines two sessions on risk management in banking and finance. Session 9 will cover risk measures, regulatory aspects, and basic principles, including defining risk measures, academic vs accounting standards, desirable properties, and estimating risks from samples. Session 10 will cover correlations, copulas, modeling dependencies between risks, diversification effects, comparing risks under dependence vs independence, and analyzing individual risk contributions. Examples of applications to finance, environmental risks, and credit risk are also provided.
This document summarizes research on strong duality analysis for discrete-time constrained portfolio optimization problems. It begins by introducing the mathematical formulation of a discrete-time portfolio selection model with constraints expressed as convex inequalities. It then discusses a risk neutral computational approach based on embedding the primal constrained problem into a family of unconstrained problems in auxiliary markets. Weak duality is shown to hold, relating the optimal values of the primal and auxiliary problems. The document defines a dual problem, known as Pliska's κ dual, that seeks to minimize the optimal values of the auxiliary problems. Conditions for strong duality are presented, under which the optimal solution to the dual problem also solves the primal constrained problem.
These slides introduce the lifecontingencies R package functionalities. Pricing, reserving and simulating life contingent insurance will be shown. Similarly, joining Lee Carter mortality projections with demography R package and annuities evaluation with lifecontingencies R package is shown. The work has been all done with R markdown.
Affine Term Structure Model with Stochastic Market Price of RiskSwati Mital
Ìý
- The document proposes a new affine term structure model that combines principal components analysis with a stochastic market price of risk.
- Principal components provide useful information about yield curves and only three components explain over 95% of yield variation.
- Previous models linked risk premium deterministically to return-predicting factors like slope, but this could result in unrealistic risk premium levels.
- The new model introduces an additional state variable to capture the stochastic market price of risk and break the deterministic link between risk premium and return-predicting factors.
I conti economici trimestrali: avanzamenti metodologici e prospettive di innovazione
Seminario
Roma, 21 aprile 2016
Istat, Aula Magna
Via Cesare Balbo, 14
This document discusses risk-neutral probability within the binomial tree model for stock prices. It introduces the concept of expected stock price and shows that the expected one-step return is equal to the risk-neutral probability times the up movement plus one minus the risk-neutral probability times the down movement. This expected return must equal the risk-free rate for the market to be risk-neutral. The risk-neutral probability is used for pricing derivative securities and may differ from the actual market probability. Exercises are provided to further explore the properties of the risk-neutral probability.
PROBLEMS IN SELECTION OF SECURITY PORTFOLIOS THE PERFORMANDaliaCulbertson719
Ìý
PROBLEMS IN SELECTION OF SECURITY PORTFOLIOS
THE PERFORMANCE OF MUTUAL FUNDS IN THE PERIOD 1945-1964
MICHAEL C. JENSEN*
I. INTRODUCTION
A CENTRAL PROBLEM IN FINANCE (and especially portfolio management) has
been that of evaluating the "performance" of portfolios of risky investments.
The concept of portfolio "performance" has at least two distinct dimensions:
1) The ability of the portfolio manager or security analyst to increase re-
turns on the portfolio through successful prediction of future security
prices, and
2) The ability of the portfolio manager to minimize (through "efficient"
diversification) the amount of "insurable risk" born by the holders of
the portfolio.
The major difficulty encountered in attempting to evaluate the performance
of a portfolio in these two dimensions has been the lack of a thorough under-
standing of the nature and measurement of "risk." Evidence seems to indicate
a predominance of risk aversion in the capital markets, and as long as in-
vestors correctly perceive the "riskiness" of various assets this implies that
"risky" assets must on average yield higher returns than less "risky" assets.'
Hence in evaluating the "performance" of portfolios the effects of differential
degrees of risk on the returns of those portfolios must be taken into account.
Recent developments in the theory of the pricing of capital assets by
Sharpe [20], Lintner [15] and Treynor [25] allow us to formulate explicit
measures of a portfolio's performance in each of the dimensions outlined
above. These measures are derived and discussed in detail in Jensen [11].
However, we shall confine our attention here only to the problem of evaluating
a portfolio manager's predictive ability-that is his ability to earn returns
through successful prediction of security prices which are higher than those
which we could expect given the level of riskiness of his portfolio. The founda-
tions of the model and the properties of the performance measure suggested
here (which is somewhat different than that proposed in [11]) are discussed
in Section II. The model is illustrated in Section III by an application of it
to the evaluation of the performance of 115 open end mutual funds in the
period 1945-1964.
A number of people in the past have attempted to evaluate the performance
of portfolios2 (primarily mutual funds), but almost all of these authors have
* University of Rochester College of Business. This paper has benefited from comments and
criticisms by G. Benston, E. Fama, J. Keilson, H. Weingartner, and especially M. Scholes.
1. Assuming, of course, that investors' expectations are on average correct.
2. See for example [2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10, 21, 24].
389
390 The Journal of Finance
relied heavily on relative measures of performance when what we really need
is an absolute measure of performance. That is, they have relied mainly on
procedures for ranking portfolios. For example, if there are two por ...
The Vasicek model is one of the earliest stochastic models for modeling the term structure of interest rates. It represents the movement of interest rates as a function of market risk, time, and the equilibrium value the rate tends to revert to. This document discusses parameter estimation techniques for the Vasicek one-factor model using least squares regression and maximum likelihood estimation on historical interest rate data. It also covers simulating the term structure and pricing zero-coupon bonds under the Vasicek model. The two-factor Vasicek model is introduced as an extension of the one-factor model.
There are several significant drawbacks in derivative price modeling which relate to global regulations of the derivatives market. Here we present a unified approach which in stochastic market interprets option price as a random variable. Therefore spot price does not complete characteristic of the price in stochastic environment. Complete derivatives price includes the spot price as well as thevalue of market risk implied by the use of the spot price. This interpretation is similar to the notion of therandom variable in Probability Theory in which an estimate of the random variable completely defined by its cumulative distribution function
The study aims to investigate the purchasing practices of green products, when government plays its
role for low prices, environmental concern, brand image and easy availability. Previous literature suggests that
there is a significant relationship between government and purchase of green products but in Pakistan there is a
lack of such investigation
Grooming" as a criminal offense involves the deliberate actions of an adult to establish emotional
connections and trust with a child, often with the intention of eventual sexual abuse or exploitation. This
phenomenon includes both physical and d
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- Using a single price framework and extending it to account for liquidity spread
- Modeling the corporate bond price as a random variable based on default/no default scenarios
- Defining market and spot prices of bonds and the associated market risks for buyers and sellers
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This document presents a new statistical physics model for analyzing stock market fluctuations based on the contact process model from statistical physics. The contact process model is used to model the spread of information in the stock market and how it affects investor positions and subsequently stock prices. Simulation results from the one-dimensional contact process model are presented and show fat-tailed distributions and long memory effects in returns that are consistent with real stock market data. Statistical analysis techniques are applied to study the fluctuation characteristics of stock price returns from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.
Abstract. Regulations of the market require disclosure of information about the nature and extent of risks arising from the trades of the market instruments. There are several significant drawbacks in fixed income pricing modeling. In this paper we interpret a corporate bond price as a random variable. In this case the spot price does not a complete characteristic of the price. The price should be specified by the spot price as well as its value of market risk. This interpretation is similar to a random variable in Probability Theory where an estimate of the random variable completely defined by its cumulative distribution function. The buyer market risk is the value of the chance that the spot price is higher than it is implied by the market scenarios. First we quantify credit risk of the corporate bonds and then consider marked-to-market pricing adjustment to bond price. In the case when issuer of the corporate bond is the counterparty of the bond buyer counterparty and credit risks are coincide.
The document presents the results of creating and back-testing a factor-based long-short global tactical asset allocation strategy using 10 years of monthly data on 10 developed country equity index futures. Three 2-factor portfolios were constructed using value, momentum, and volatility factors. The portfolio combining value and volatility factors performed best with an annualized return of 7.24% and average drawdown of 13.01%.
Presentation final _FINANCE MARKET CRASH PREDICTIONNVictor Romanov
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The document discusses using multifractal and wavelet analysis to predict financial market crises. It analyzes various financial market indices during crisis periods between 1997-2008. Fractals are nonlinear patterns that repeat at different scales and can describe financial market prices better than traditional linear models. Multifractal analysis examines the scaling behavior of partition functions to estimate the fractal dimension spectrum, whose width may serve as an indicator for predicting crashes. The methodology involves preprocessing time series data, computing partition functions over varying scales, and using the results to analyze changes before and after crisis periods.
The document discusses using multifractal and wavelet analysis to predict financial market crises. It analyzes various financial market indices during crisis periods from 1987 to 2008. Fractals are described as shapes that appear similar at different scales and have non-integer dimensions. Financial markets exhibit fractal properties with long-term memory and volatility clustering. The researchers use techniques like Hurst exponent analysis, time series partitioning, and calculating partition functions and fractal dimension spectra to analyze indices for signs of an impending crisis. The width of the multifractal spectrum is proposed as an indicator, with wider widths preceding crashes.
Bid and Ask Prices Tailored to Traders' Risk Aversion and Gain Propension: a ...Waqas Tariq
Ìý
Risky asset bid and ask prices “tailored†to the risk-aversion and the gain-propension of the traders are set up. They are calculated through the principle of the Extended Gini premium, a standard method used in non-life insurance. Explicit formulae for the most common stochastic distributions of risky returns, are calculated. Sufficient and necessary conditions for successful trading are also discussed.
The document outlines two sessions on risk management in banking and finance. Session 9 will cover risk measures, regulatory aspects, and basic principles, including defining risk measures, academic vs accounting standards, desirable properties, and estimating risks from samples. Session 10 will cover correlations, copulas, modeling dependencies between risks, diversification effects, comparing risks under dependence vs independence, and analyzing individual risk contributions. Examples of applications in finance, environmental risks, and credit risk are also provided.
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This document summarizes research on strong duality analysis for discrete-time constrained portfolio optimization problems. It begins by introducing the mathematical formulation of a discrete-time portfolio selection model with constraints expressed as convex inequalities. It then discusses a risk neutral computational approach based on embedding the primal constrained problem into a family of unconstrained problems in auxiliary markets. Weak duality is shown to hold, relating the optimal values of the primal and auxiliary problems. The document defines a dual problem, known as Pliska's κ dual, that seeks to minimize the optimal values of the auxiliary problems. Conditions for strong duality are presented, under which the optimal solution to the dual problem also solves the primal constrained problem.
These slides introduce the lifecontingencies R package functionalities. Pricing, reserving and simulating life contingent insurance will be shown. Similarly, joining Lee Carter mortality projections with demography R package and annuities evaluation with lifecontingencies R package is shown. The work has been all done with R markdown.
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- Principal components provide useful information about yield curves and only three components explain over 95% of yield variation.
- Previous models linked risk premium deterministically to return-predicting factors like slope, but this could result in unrealistic risk premium levels.
- The new model introduces an additional state variable to capture the stochastic market price of risk and break the deterministic link between risk premium and return-predicting factors.
I conti economici trimestrali: avanzamenti metodologici e prospettive di innovazione
Seminario
Roma, 21 aprile 2016
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This document discusses risk-neutral probability within the binomial tree model for stock prices. It introduces the concept of expected stock price and shows that the expected one-step return is equal to the risk-neutral probability times the up movement plus one minus the risk-neutral probability times the down movement. This expected return must equal the risk-free rate for the market to be risk-neutral. The risk-neutral probability is used for pricing derivative securities and may differ from the actual market probability. Exercises are provided to further explore the properties of the risk-neutral probability.
PROBLEMS IN SELECTION OF SECURITY PORTFOLIOS THE PERFORMANDaliaCulbertson719
Ìý
PROBLEMS IN SELECTION OF SECURITY PORTFOLIOS
THE PERFORMANCE OF MUTUAL FUNDS IN THE PERIOD 1945-1964
MICHAEL C. JENSEN*
I. INTRODUCTION
A CENTRAL PROBLEM IN FINANCE (and especially portfolio management) has
been that of evaluating the "performance" of portfolios of risky investments.
The concept of portfolio "performance" has at least two distinct dimensions:
1) The ability of the portfolio manager or security analyst to increase re-
turns on the portfolio through successful prediction of future security
prices, and
2) The ability of the portfolio manager to minimize (through "efficient"
diversification) the amount of "insurable risk" born by the holders of
the portfolio.
The major difficulty encountered in attempting to evaluate the performance
of a portfolio in these two dimensions has been the lack of a thorough under-
standing of the nature and measurement of "risk." Evidence seems to indicate
a predominance of risk aversion in the capital markets, and as long as in-
vestors correctly perceive the "riskiness" of various assets this implies that
"risky" assets must on average yield higher returns than less "risky" assets.'
Hence in evaluating the "performance" of portfolios the effects of differential
degrees of risk on the returns of those portfolios must be taken into account.
Recent developments in the theory of the pricing of capital assets by
Sharpe [20], Lintner [15] and Treynor [25] allow us to formulate explicit
measures of a portfolio's performance in each of the dimensions outlined
above. These measures are derived and discussed in detail in Jensen [11].
However, we shall confine our attention here only to the problem of evaluating
a portfolio manager's predictive ability-that is his ability to earn returns
through successful prediction of security prices which are higher than those
which we could expect given the level of riskiness of his portfolio. The founda-
tions of the model and the properties of the performance measure suggested
here (which is somewhat different than that proposed in [11]) are discussed
in Section II. The model is illustrated in Section III by an application of it
to the evaluation of the performance of 115 open end mutual funds in the
period 1945-1964.
A number of people in the past have attempted to evaluate the performance
of portfolios2 (primarily mutual funds), but almost all of these authors have
* University of Rochester College of Business. This paper has benefited from comments and
criticisms by G. Benston, E. Fama, J. Keilson, H. Weingartner, and especially M. Scholes.
1. Assuming, of course, that investors' expectations are on average correct.
2. See for example [2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10, 21, 24].
389
390 The Journal of Finance
relied heavily on relative measures of performance when what we really need
is an absolute measure of performance. That is, they have relied mainly on
procedures for ranking portfolios. For example, if there are two por ...
The Vasicek model is one of the earliest stochastic models for modeling the term structure of interest rates. It represents the movement of interest rates as a function of market risk, time, and the equilibrium value the rate tends to revert to. This document discusses parameter estimation techniques for the Vasicek one-factor model using least squares regression and maximum likelihood estimation on historical interest rate data. It also covers simulating the term structure and pricing zero-coupon bonds under the Vasicek model. The two-factor Vasicek model is introduced as an extension of the one-factor model.
There are several significant drawbacks in derivative price modeling which relate to global regulations of the derivatives market. Here we present a unified approach which in stochastic market interprets option price as a random variable. Therefore spot price does not complete characteristic of the price in stochastic environment. Complete derivatives price includes the spot price as well as thevalue of market risk implied by the use of the spot price. This interpretation is similar to the notion of therandom variable in Probability Theory in which an estimate of the random variable completely defined by its cumulative distribution function
The study aims to investigate the purchasing practices of green products, when government plays its
role for low prices, environmental concern, brand image and easy availability. Previous literature suggests that
there is a significant relationship between government and purchase of green products but in Pakistan there is a
lack of such investigation
Grooming" as a criminal offense involves the deliberate actions of an adult to establish emotional
connections and trust with a child, often with the intention of eventual sexual abuse or exploitation. This
phenomenon includes both physical and d
Many countries have seen the importance of financial education by making financial
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Despite the attainment of the famous Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of reducing the number
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Government have channelled financial support through funding such as Women Enterprise fund, Youth
Enterprise Fund and Uwezo Fund
:Textiles and clothing are a fundamental part of everyday life and an important sector in the global
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Outsourcing has become a critical strategy for large manufacturing organizations seeking to enhance efficiency, reduce costs, and focus on core competencies. In Kenya, companies such as British American Tobacco (BAT) - Thika have increasingly adopted outsourcing to streamline operations and improve overall performance. This study examines the key factors influencing outsourcing decisions in large manufacturing firms, with a specific focus on BAT Thika.
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Outsourcing in manufacturing refers to the delegation of certain production processes, logistics, human resource management, or other business functions to third-party service providers. It allows companies to leverage external expertise, reduce operational costs, and improve productivity. BAT Thika, as a leading tobacco manufacturer, outsources various functions, including raw material supply, distribution, security services, and IT solutions, to enhance efficiency and competitiveness.
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Cost considerations are among the primary drivers of outsourcing. BAT Thika, like other manufacturers, seeks to lower operational expenses by outsourcing non-core functions such as maintenance, transportation, and administrative services. Outsourcing helps reduce overhead costs, minimize labor expenses, and optimize production efficiency.
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The rapid evolution of technology has necessitated outsourcing in areas such as IT infrastructure, cybersecurity, and automation. BAT Thika collaborates with external IT firms to manage digital operations, data security, and system maintenance, ensuring it remains technologically competitive.
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The manufacturing sector in Kenya is governed by strict legal, environmental, and industry regulations. BAT Thika outsources legal and compliance functions to ensure adherence to government policies, tax laws, and international tobacco regulations.
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Outsourcing is influenced by market trends, demand fluctuations, and supply chain constraints.
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Overview: Carried forward from the “Licensing for Car and Home Parts I&II†document discusses the financial performance, licensing, and innovative engineering of glass cars and home applications with glass and steel combined at the granular level of topology. This document “Franchise and Licenses Parts 1&II†discusses licensing, franchise costs, and the development of glass homes and vehicles through innovative engineering, with extensive reporting and analysis.
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2. Robust Optimal Reinsurance and Investment Problem with p-Thinning Dependent and Default ris
International Journal of Business Marketing and Management (IJBMM) Page 92
taxes do not incur transaction costs and all property is infinitely divisible.
1.1 Surplus Process
Assuming that the insurer operates two different lines of business and that there is a sparse dependency between
these two lines of business, the surplus process is as follows:
R(t) = ð‘¥0 + ð‘𑡠− (∑ ð‘‹ð‘–
ð‘(ð‘¡)
ð‘–=1
+ ∑ ð‘Œð‘–
ð‘ð‘(ð‘¡)
ð‘–=1
) . #(1)
where{ð‘‹ð‘–,𑖠≥ 1} is independently and identically distributed in ð¹ð‘‹(∙),ð¸(ð‘‹) = ðœ‡ð‘‹ > 0,ð¸(ð‘‹2
) = ðœð‘‹
2
, as the
claim amount of the first class of business,{ð‘Œð‘–,𑖠≥ 1} is independently and identically distributed inð¹ð‘Œ(∙
),ð¸(ð‘Œ) = ðœ‡ð‘Œ > 0,ð¸(ð‘Œ2
) = ðœð‘Œ
2
, as the claim amount of the second class of business. the claim amount of the
second type of business. N(t)denotes the conforming Poisson process with parameter c denotes the premium of
the insurance company by the expected value premium there are c = (1 + θ1)λðœ‡ð‘‹ + (1 + θ2)λpðœ‡ð‘Œ.θ1 > 0,θ2 >
0.
1.2 Proportional Reinsurance
Assuming that the insurer diversifies the claim risk by purchasing proportional reinsurance, and let ð‘ž1(ð‘¡),ð‘ž2(ð‘¡)
be the insurer's retention ratio, the claim after the insurer purchases reinsurance is:
ð‘ž1(ð‘¡)ð‘‹ð‘– , ð‘ž2(ð‘¡)ð‘Œð‘– then the reinsurance fee is δ(ð‘ž1(ð‘¡), ð‘ž2(ð‘¡)) = (1 + η1)(1 − ð‘ž1(ð‘¡))λðœ‡ð‘‹ + (1 + η2)(1 −
ð‘ž2(ð‘¡))λpðœ‡ð‘Œ.According to Grandell(1991)[8]
,the claims process can be diffusely approximated as:
d ∑ Xi
N(t)
i=1
= λE(Xi)dt − γ1dWX(t), γ1 = √λE(XI
2
)
d ∑ Yi
Np(t)
i=1
= λE(Yi)dt − γ2dWY(t), γ2 = √λE(YI
2
)
The correlation coefficient of ð‘Šð‘‹(ð‘¡)ð‘Šð‘Œ(ð‘¡ )is Ï
Ì‚ =
λp
ð›¾1ð›¾2
E(ð‘‹ð‘–)E(ð‘Œð‘–).Then the wealth process of the insurer after
joining the reinsurance is:
dXq1,q2 = ,λμX(θ1 − η1 + η1ð‘ž1(ð‘¡)) + λpμY(θ2 − η2
+η2ð‘ž2(ð‘¡))ð‘‘ð‘¡ + √(ð‘ž1ð›¾1)2 + (ð‘ž2ð›¾2)2 + 2Ï
Ì‚ð‘ž1ð‘ž2ð›¾1ð›¾2dW0
1.3 Financial Market
Suppose the financial market consists of three assets: risk-free assets, stocks, and corporate bonds, and the price
processes of the three assets are as follows: The price process of risk-free bonds is given by:ð‘‘R(t) =
rR(t)dt.The stock price process S(t) obeys the Heston stochastic volatility model:
{
ð‘‘ð‘†(ð‘¡) = ð‘†(ð‘¡),ð‘Ÿ + ð›¼ð¿(ð‘¡)ð‘‘ð‘¡ + √ð¿(ð‘¡)ð‘‘ð‘Š1(ð‘¡)-, ð‘†(0) = ð‘ 0
ð‘‘ð¿(ð‘¡) = ð‘˜(𜔠− ð¿(ð‘¡))ð‘‘ð‘¡ + ðœâˆšð¿(ð‘¡)ð‘‘ð‘Š2(ð‘¡), ð¿(0) = ð‘™0
R is the risk-free rate,α, ð‘˜, Ï‚, are positive constant.ð¸,ð‘Š1ð‘Š2- = Ït, 2ð‘˜ðœ” ≥ Ï‚2
Following Bielecki (2007)[18]
, the credit bond price process p(t, T1), under a realistic measure P, using an
approximate model to portray default risk is as follows:
dp(t, T1) = p(t−, T1),(r + (1 − H(t))δ(1 − Δ)dt
−(1 − H(t−))ζdMp
(t)-
Where Mp
(t) = H(t) − hQ
∫ Δ(1 − H(u))du
t
0
is aâ„Š − harness, δ = ð‘•ð‘„
ζ is the credit spread.
1.4 Robust optimization problem
Assuming the insurer adopts a reinsurance investment strategyε(t) = (ð‘ž1(ð‘¡), ð‘ž2(ð‘¡), Ï€(t), β(ð‘¡)),ð‘ž1(ð‘¡), ð‘ž2(ð‘¡)are
the reinsurance strategies adopted by the insurer at moment t in the first and second asset classes,
respectively.Ï€(t) for the insurance company's investment in equities at time t.,β(ð‘¡)for the insurance company′s
investment in credit bonds at time t. Let 𔸠denotes the set of all feasible strategies, then the dynamic process of
wealth of the insurance company at this moment ð‘‹ðœ€
(t) is:
dð‘‹ðœ€(ð‘¡) = ðœ‹(ð‘¡)
ð‘‘ð‘†(ð‘¡)
ð‘†(ð‘¡)
+ β(ð‘¡)
ð‘‘ð‘(ð‘¡)
ð‘(ð‘¡)
+ (ð‘‹ðœ€(ð‘¡) − ðœ‹(ð‘¡) − β(ð‘¡))
ð‘‘ðµ(ð‘¡)
ðµ(ð‘¡)
4. Robust Optimal Reinsurance and Investment Problem with p-Thinning Dependent and Default ris
International Journal of Business Marketing and Management (IJBMM) Page 94
III. Robust optimal reinsurance-investment strategy solving
This section will solve the robust optimal problem constructed in the previous section. This paper
divides the value function into pre-default and post-default components according to the time of default of the
credit bond:
V(T, x, l, h) = {
V(T, x, l, 0),h = 0(before default)
V(T, x, l, 1),h = 1(after default)
By decomposing the value function into two sub-functions, denoted as the value function before the zero-
coupon bond default and the value function after the zero-coupon bond default, the two sub-HJB equations are
obtained and solved successively to obtain the reinsurance and risky asset investment strategies and value
function expressions after default, and the reinsurance, risky asset and credit bond investment strategies and
value function expressions before default.
1.5 Optimal reinsurance and investment decisions after default
When H (t)=1,τ ∧ T ≤ t ≤ T,the insurer has constituted a default at or before time t, the HJB equation
degenerates to:
ð‘‰ð‘¡ +
[ð‘Ÿð‘¥ + ðœ‹(ð›¼ð‘™ − Φ1√ð‘™) + ðœ†Î¼X(θ1 − η1) + λpμY(θ2 − η2) + ðœ†Î¼Xη1ð‘ž1(ð‘¡) + λpμYη2ð‘ž2(ð‘¡) +
√(ð‘ž1ð›¾1)2 + (ð‘ž2ð›¾2)2 + 2Ï
Ì‚ð‘ž1ð‘ž2ð›¾1ð›¾2Φ0]ð‘‰
ð‘¥ +
1
2
(Ï€2
l + λ(q1ςX)2
+ λp(q2ςY)2
+ 2λpμXμY)Vxx + Ï€lÏ‚ÏVxl +
(k(ω − l) − Φ1ðœðœŒâˆšð‘™ − Φ2ðœâˆš1 − ðœŒ2√ð‘™)Vl +
1
2
Ï‚2
lVll −
Φ0
2
2v0
𛾠−
Φ1
2
2v1
𛾠−
Φ2
2
2v2
𛾠= 0 (4)
Satisfied :V(T, x, l, 1) = −
1
γ
e−γX
The solution can be assumed to be of the form:
V(t, x, y, l, 1) = −
1
γ
exp*−γð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
x + G(t, l)+, G(T, l) = 0#(5)
Taking each partial derivative of V:
{
ð‘‰ð‘¡ = [γrxð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
+ Gt]V, ð‘‰
ð‘¥ = −γð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
V
ð‘‰
ð‘¥ð‘¥ = γ2
ð‘’2ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
ð‘‰ï¼Œð‘‰ð‘¥ð‘™ = −γðºð‘™ð‘‰
ð‘‰ð‘™ = ðºð‘™ð‘‰, ð‘‰ð‘™ð‘™ = ðºð‘™ð‘™ð‘‰ + ðºð‘™
2
ð‘‰
The minimum value point of Φ∗
is obtained from the first order condition as:
{
Φ0
∗
= v0er(T−t)
√(q1γ1)2 + (q2γ2)2 + 2Ï
̂q1q2γ1γ2
Φ1
∗
= v1er(T−t)
π√l, Φ2
∗
= −ςÏ√lGlv2
1
γ
Bringing in the HJB equation yields:
γrxð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
+ Gt − ,λμX(θ1 − η1) + λpμY(θ2 − η2)-
γð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
+ k(ω − l)ðºð‘™ +
(ðœðœŒâˆšð‘™ðºð‘™)
2
v2
2
+
1
2
ðœ2
ð‘™(ðºð‘™ð‘™ + ðºð‘™
2
)
+ *ð‘“2(ðœ‹, ð‘¡)+
Ï€
inf
+ {λγð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
ð‘“1(ð‘ž1, ð‘ž2, ð‘¡)}
ð‘ž1,ð‘ž2
inf
= 0#(6)
Where
ð‘“1(ð‘ž1, ð‘ž2, ð‘¡) = −,μXη1ð‘ž1(ð‘¡) + pμYη2ð‘ž2(ð‘¡)-
+
(γ + v0)ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
2
,(ð‘ž1ðœð‘‹)2
+ p(ð‘ž2ðœð‘Œ)2
+ 2pÏ‚XÏ‚Yð‘ž1ð‘ž2-
ð‘“2(ðœ‹, ð‘¡) = ðœ‹ð‘™ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)(Ï‚Ïðºð‘™(γ + v1) − ð›¼) +
1
2
(γ + v1)lπ2
ð‘’2ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
Theorem III.1 Let m=
μX(η1ðœŽð‘Œ
2−pη2μY
2)
ðœŽð‘¥
2ðœŽð‘Œ
2−ð‘μX
2μY
2 , n=
μY(η2ðœŽð‘‹
2−η1μX
2)
ðœŽð‘¥
2ðœŽð‘Œ
2−ð‘μX
2μY
2 ,then there exist ð‘¡1, ð‘¡2ð‘¡1
Ì‚, ð‘¡2
Ì‚ and the following values
can be obtained:
5. Robust Optimal Reinsurance and Investment Problem with p-Thinning Dependent and Default ris
International Journal of Business Marketing and Management (IJBMM) Page 95
ð‘¡1 = 𑇠−
1
ð‘Ÿ
ln
ð‘š
γ + v0
, ð‘¡2 = 𑇠−
1
ð‘Ÿ
ln
ð‘›
γ + v0
ð‘¡1
̂ = 𑇠−
1
ð‘Ÿ
ln
μXη1
(γ + v0)p(ðœð‘‹
2 + μXμY)
ð‘¡2
̂ = 𑇠−
1
ð‘Ÿ
ln
μyη2
(γ + v0)(ðœð‘Œ
2 + μXμY)
When m ≤ γ(n ≤ γ),let ð‘¡2 = ð‘‡(ð‘¡1 = ð‘‡).When m > γ(n > γ),let ð‘¡2 = 0(ð‘¡1 = 0)(1)If 𑚠≤ n,then ð‘ž1
∗
≤ ð‘ž2
∗
,for
all tϵ,0, T-,The reinsurance strategy corresponding to the problem is(ð‘ž1
∗
, ð‘ž2
∗
) = {
(ð‘ž1
Ì‚ , ð‘ž2
Ì‚),0 ≤ 𑡠≤ ð‘¡2
(ð‘ž1
̃, 1
̃),ð‘¡2 ≤ 𑡠≤ ð‘¡1
Ì‚
(1,1),ð‘¡1 ≤ 𑡠≤ ð‘‡
(2)If
n > m,then for alltϵ,0, T-,The reinsurance strategy corresponding to the problem
is(ð‘ž1
∗
, ð‘ž2
∗
) = {
(ð‘ž1
Ì‚ , ð‘ž2
Ì‚),0 ≤ 𑡠≤ ð‘¡1
(1, ð‘ž2
̃), ð‘¡1 ≤ 𑡠≤ ð‘¡2
Ì‚
(1,1), ð‘¡2
Ì‚ ≤ 𑡠≤ ð‘‡
. Where
ð‘ž1
Ì‚ =
μX(η1ðœð‘Œ
2
− pη2μY
2)
(γ + v0)ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)(ðœð‘¥
2ðœð‘Œ
2 − ð‘μX
2μY
2)
#(7)
ð‘ž2
Ì‚ =
μY(η2ðœð‘‹
2
− η1μX
2)
(γ + v0)ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)(ðœð‘¥
2ðœð‘Œ
2 − ð‘μX
2μY
2)
#(8)
ð‘ž1
̃ =
μXη1 − pμXμY(γ + v0)ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
ðœð‘‹
2(γ + v0)ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)p
#(9)
ð‘ž2
̃ =
μyη2 − μXμY(γ + v0)ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
ðœð‘Œ
2(γ + v0)ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
#(10)
Proof:By finding the first-order partial derivatives, second-order partial derivatives and second-order mixed
partial derivatives forð‘“1, the following system of equations and the Hessian array are obtained:
{
ðœ•ð‘“1
ðœ•ð‘ž1
= −μXη1 + (γ + v0)ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
,ðœð‘‹
2
ð‘ž1 + pÏ‚XÏ‚Yð‘ž2- = 0
ðœ•ð‘“1
ðœ•ð‘ž2
= −μYη2 + (γ + v0)ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
,ðœð‘Œ
2
ð‘ž2 + Ï‚XÏ‚Yð‘ž1- = 0
(11)
|
|
ðœ•2
ð‘“1
ðœ•ð‘ž1ðœ•ð‘ž1
ðœ•2
ð‘“1
ðœ•ð‘ž1ðœ•ð‘ž2
ðœ•2
ð‘“1
ðœ•ð‘ž2ðœ•ð‘ž1
ðœ•2
ð‘“1
ðœ•ð‘ž2ðœ•ð‘ž2
|
| = ð‘’4ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
(γ + v0)2
|
−ðœð‘¥
2
(γ + v0) −pςXςY
−pÏ‚XÏ‚Y −ð‘ðœð‘¦
2
(γ + v0)
|
From the Hessian array positive definite it is known that ð‘“1(ð‘ž1, ð‘ž2, ð‘¡) is a convex function and there exist
extreme value points; solving the system of equations (11) yields (7). (8).
Obviously,ð‘ž1
Ì‚ ã€ð‘ž2
Ì‚ are both increasing functions with respect to t, when 𑚠≤ n,0 ≤ 𑡠≤ ð‘¡1 or n > m,0 ≤
𑡠≤ ð‘¡2the solution as (7)(8),Also the values of ð‘¡1 and ð‘¡2 can be found. When 𑚠≤ n,ð‘¡2 ≤ 𑡠≤ ð‘¡1
̂ ,then
(q1
∗
, q2
∗
) = (ð‘ž1
̃, 1),q1 ∈ ,0,1-.When ð‘› > m,ð‘¡1 ≤ 𑡠≤ ð‘¡2
Ì‚ then (q1
∗
, q2
∗
) = (1, ð‘ž1
̃), q2 ∈ ,0,1-,Separate solve
df1(t,q1,1)
dq1
= 0,
df1(t,1,q2)
dq2
= 0 , then can get ð‘ž1
̃, ð‘ž2
̃ as (9), (10) End.
Theorem III.2 The post-default insurer's optimal risky asset investment strategy is to
π∗
=
α − Ï‚Ï(γ + v1)ðº1
(γ + v1)ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
#(12)
The expression of the optimal value function is:
V(t, x, y, l, 1) = −
1
γ
exp*−γð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)(t)x + G1(t)l + G2(t)+#(13)
ð‘¤ð‘•ð‘’ð‘Ÿð‘’ Ï â‰ Â±1, ðº1 =
ð‘™1ð‘™2 − ð‘™1ð‘™2ð‘’−
1
2
Ï‚2(ð‘™1−ð‘™2)(γ+v1)(1−Ï2)(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
ð‘™2 − ð‘™1ð‘’−
1
2
Ï‚2(ð‘™1−ð‘™2)(γ+v1)(1−Ï2)(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
, #(14)
Ï = 1, ðº1 =
α2
2(γ + v1)(ας + k)
(1 − ð‘’−(ας+k)(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
), #(15)
7. Robust Optimal Reinsurance and Investment Problem with p-Thinning Dependent and Default ris
International Journal of Business Marketing and Management (IJBMM) Page 97
∗ ð‘™ð‘›|
ð‘™1 − ð‘™2
ð‘™1 − ð‘™2ð‘’0.5ðœŽ2(ð‘™1−ð‘™2)(1−ðœŒ2)(γ+v1)(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
|)ï¼ŒÏ â‰ Â±1
α2
ð‘˜ðœ”
2(𑘠+ ας)(γ + v1)
(T − t) +
1
2
(
α
(k + ας)(γ + v1)
)2
ð‘˜ðœ”(1 − ð‘’(ð‘˜+ας)(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
)ï¼ŒÏ = 1
α2
ð‘˜ðœ”
2(𑘠− ας)(γ + v1)
(T − t) +
1
2
(
α
(k − ας)(γ + v1)
)2
ð‘˜ðœ”(1 − ð‘’(ð‘˜âˆ’ας)(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
)ï¼ŒÏ = −1, k ≠ας
ð‘˜ðœ”
,(T−t)α-2
4(γ+v1)
ï¼ŒÏ = −1,k = ας. End.
1.6 Optimal reinsurance and investment decisions before default
This section considers the optimal pre-default reinsurance-investment strategy and the value function expression
based on the previous section, when H(t)=0, 0 ≤ t ≤ τ ∧ T.Let the solution of the default prior value function
have the following form:
V(T, x, l, 0) = −
1
ð›¾
ð‘’ð‘¥ð‘{−ð›¾ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)(ð‘¡)ð‘¥ + ð¾(ð‘¡, ð‘™)}#(22)
Satisfying the boundary conditions V(T, x, l, 0)=V(x), K(T, l)=0, the HJB equation is transformed into:
ð‘‰ð‘¡ + ,ðœ‹(ð›¼ð‘™ − Φ1√ð‘™) + βδ(1 − Δ) + λμX(θ1 + η1ð‘ž1(ð‘¡) − 1))
+λpμY .θ2 + η2(ð‘ž2(ð‘¡) − 1)√(ð‘ž1ð›¾1)2 + (ð‘ž2ð›¾2)2 + 2Ï
Ì‚ð‘ž1ð‘ž2ð›¾1ð›¾2Φ01 ð‘‰
ð‘¥
+
1
2
((ðœ‹)2
ð‘™ + λ(ð‘ž1ðœð‘‹)2
+ λp(ð‘ž2ðœð‘Œ)2
+ 2λpðœð‘‹ðœð‘Œ)ð‘‰
ð‘¥ð‘¥
+ðœ‹ð‘™ðœÏð‘‰ð‘¥ð‘™ + (k(ω − l) − Φ1ðœðœŒâˆšð‘™ − Φ2ðœâˆš1 − ðœŒ2√ð‘™))Vl +
1
2
Ï‚2
lVll
+ð‘‰(ð‘’ð›¾Î²(t)ζð»1(ð‘¡)+ð¾(ð‘¡,ð‘™)−G(ð‘¡,ð‘™)
− 1)ð‘•ð‘
−
Φ0
2
2v0
𛾠−
Φ1
2
2v1
𛾠−
Φ2
2
2v2
𛾠−
(Φ3 ln Φ3 − Φ3 + 1)hp
(1 − h)
2v2
𛾠= 0
Similarly find the partial derivative of V:
{
ð‘‰ð‘¡ = [γð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
+ Kt’]V, ð‘‰
ð‘¥ = −γð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
V
ð‘‰
ð‘¥ð‘¥ = γ2
ð‘’2ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
ð‘‰ï¼Œð‘‰ð‘¥ð‘™ = −γð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
ð¾ð‘™ð‘‰
ð‘‰ð‘™ = ð¾ð‘™ð‘‰, ð‘‰ð‘™ð‘™ = ð¾ð‘™ð‘™ð‘‰ + ð¾ð‘™
2
ð‘‰
Bringing the above expression into the HJB equation and fixing the reinsurance-investment strategy, the
minimum point of Φ is obtained according to the first-order condition as:
{
Φ0
∗
= v0ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
√(ð‘ž1ð›¾1)2 + (ð‘ž2ð›¾2)2 + 2Ï
Ì‚ð‘ž1ð‘ž2ð›¾1ð›¾2
Φ1
∗
= v1ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
ðœ‹âˆšð‘™, Φ2
∗
= −ðœðœŒâˆšð‘™Kð‘™v2
1
ð›¾
Φ3
∗
= ð‘’ð‘¥ð‘*
v3
ð›¾
.ð‘’−ð›¾Î²(t)ζð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)+ðº1(ð‘¡,ð‘™)−G(ð‘¡,ð‘™)
− 1/+
#(23)
After bringing (23) into the HJB equation, by inverting the investment strategy we can obtain:
π∗
=
α − Ï‚Ï(γ + v1)Kl
(γ + v1)ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
, β∗
=
ln
1
∆Φ3
+ K(t, l) − G(t, l)
ζγð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
and obviously the expressions for the reinsurance strategy before and after the bond default are the same, so that
ð‘”1(ð‘¡, q1, q2) = ð‘“1(ð‘¡, q1, q2) = −,μXη1q1 + pμYη2q2-
+
1
2
,(q1Ï‚X)2
+ p(q2Ï‚Y)2
+ pςXςYμXμYγ2
-(γ + v0)ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
Bringing ε∗
= (π∗
, β∗
, ð‘ž1
∗
, ð‘ž2
∗
) into the equation, after finishing, we get:
,−γð‘Ÿð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
+ Kt’- − ,λμX(θ1 − η1)
+λpμY(θ2 − η2)-γð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
+ k(ω − l)Kl +
1
2
Ï‚2
l(Kll + Kl
2
)
−λγer(T−t)
ð‘”1(q1
∗
, q2
∗
, t) − g2(π∗
, t) − g3(β∗
, t) = 0#(24)
Where
8. Robust Optimal Reinsurance and Investment Problem with p-Thinning Dependent and Default ris
International Journal of Business Marketing and Management (IJBMM) Page 98
ð‘”2(π∗
, t) = π∗
ð‘™ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)(Ï‚Ïð¾ð‘™(γ + v1) − ð›¼) +
1
2
(γ + v1)lπ∗2
ð‘’2ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡) (25)
ð‘”3(β∗
, t) = −
(Φ3 − 1)γhp
v3
− δβγer(T−t)
#(26)
The derivative of equation (26) with respect to β :
β∗
=
ln
1
∆Φ3
+ K(t, l) − G(t, l)
ζγð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
#(27)
Bringing it into Φ3
∗
get :
hp
v3
Φ3(ð‘¡) ln Φ3(ð‘¡) + hp
Φ3(ð‘¡) −
ð›¿
ðœ
= 0. The equation has dimension one positive roots
Φ3.
Let K(t, l)=K1(t)l + K2(t),satisfy the boundary conditions K1(T)=0,K2(T) = 0,bring it to HJB equation(24),
eliminating the effect of l on the equation yields two equations:
K1
’
− kð¾1 +
1
2
Ï‚2
ð¾1
2
−
ð¾1 − ðº1
ζ
δ − (Ï‚Ïð¾1 + α(δ − r))α(δ − r)
+
1
2
(Ï‚Ïð¾1 + α(δ − r))
2
− (Ï‚Ïð¾1 + α(δ − r))Ï‚Ïð¾1 = 0#(28)
K2
’
− ,λμX(θ1 − η1) + λpμY(θ2 − η2)-γð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
+ λpςXςYγ2
(ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
)2
+kωð¾1 −
ln
1
∆Φ3
+ ð¾2 − ðº2
ζ
δ + (1 −
1
∆Φ3
) hp
− f(t, ð‘ž1
∗
, ð‘ž2
∗) = 0#(29)
When Ï â‰ Â±1,equation (28) is the first-order RICCATI equation that,from the existence uniqueness of the
solution ð¾1 = ðº1.Then we solve equation(29):let I(t)=ð¾2 − ðº2, Satisfying the boundary condition I(T) = 0, then
using (29) and (21) we get:I’ = K2
’
− G2
’
=
δ
ζ
I +
δ
ζ
ln
1
∆Φ3
+
γ(Φ3−1)
v3
hp
,
I = (ln
1
∆Φ3
+ ∆ − 1)ð‘’
−
δ
ζ
(T−t)
− ln
1
∆Φ3
− ∆ + 1.Thus :
ð¾2 = (ln
1
∆Φ3
+
γ∆(Φ3 − 1)
v3
) ð‘’
−
δ
ζ
(T−t)
− ln
1
∆Φ3
+
γ∆(Φ3 − 1)
v3
+ ðº2(30)
Theorem III.3 The optimal pre-default investment and bond investment strategies are:
π∗
=
α − Ï‚Ï(γ + v1)Kl
(γ + v1)ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
, ð›½âˆ—
=
ð‘£3ln
1
ΔΦ3
+ Δð›¾(Φ3 − 1)(ð‘’
−
ð›¿
ðœ
(T−t)
− 1)
ð‘£3ðœð›¾ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
The expression of the value function before default is:
ð‘‰(ð‘¡, ð‘¥, ð‘™, 0) = −
1
ð›¾
exp{−ð›¾ð‘’ð‘Ÿ(ð‘‡âˆ’ð‘¡)
ð‘¥ + K1(ð‘¡)ð‘™+K2(ð‘¡)+
Where K1(t) = G1(t),as the formula (14)-(17),K2(t) as the formula (30).
IV. Parameter Sensitivity analysis
In this chapter, we give several numerical examples to test the effect of model parameters on the
optimal strategy. First, to make the parameters more realistic, the model parameters for credit bonds are set as
follows, based on the estimates from Berndt (2008)[22]
and Collin-Dufrensn & Solnik (2001)[23],
which are
estimated from market data:1/Δ = 2.53, hQ
= 0.013, ðœ = 0.52.The claim amounts for the first and second
categories of insurance respectively meet the parameters of λ𑋠= 1.5, λ𑌠= 1exponential distribution . If no
special statement is made, other model parameters are assumed as follows:: t = 3, T = 10, 𑟠= 0.06, 𛾠=
4,η1 = 2, η2 = 3, p = 0.5, ðœˆ0 = ðœˆ1 = ðœˆ3 = 1, Ï = 1, Ï‚ = 0.16, 𑘠= 2, α = 1.5.
1.7 Influence of parameters on optimal reinsurance strategy
Figure.1-2 represents the variation of the optimal reinsurance strategy with the parameters. where Figure.1
shows the variation of reinsurance strategy with probability p. When p increases, the insurer will reduce the
amount of reinsurance retention for class I reinsurance and increase the amount of reinsurance retention for class
II reinsurance. figure.2 represents the effect of risk aversion coefficient 𛾠on reinsurance strategy, when the risk
aversion coefficient is larger, the insurer will reduce the reinsurance strategy and purchase more reinsurance to
diversify Claims risk.
9. Robust Optimal Reinsurance and Investment Problem with p-Thinning Dependent and Default ris
International Journal of Business Marketing and Management (IJBMM) Page 99
Figure. 1 Figure. 2
1.8 Influence of parameters on optimal investment strategy
Where Figure.3 represents the effect of the risk-free rate r on the optimal investment strategyπ∗
, when the risk-
free rate increases, the insurer will invest less in risky assets and more assets in risk-free assets. Figure.4
represents the effect of the volatile reversion rate k on the optimal investment strategyπ∗
. When the reversion
rate increases, the insurer will increase its investment in risky assets.
Figure. 3 Figure. 4
Figure.5 shows the impact of risk premium
1
Δ
on credit bonds, when the risk premium increases, investment in
credit bonds is increased. Figure.6 indicates that when the default loss rate ðœ increases, insurers will invest less
in credit bond.
Figure. 5 Figure. 6
1.9 Influence of ambiguity aversion coefficient on strategy
Figure.7 to Figure.9 represent the effect of optimal reinsurance-investment strategy subject to ambiguity
aversion sparsity. It can be seen that as the ambiguity aversion coefficient increases, the insurer's uncertainty
about the model increases and therefore reduces its optimal reinsurance-investment strategy.
0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6
p
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
q1
q2
2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
q1
q2
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2
r
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
k
0.222
0.2225
0.223
0.2235
0.224
0.2245
0.225
0.2255
0.226
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1/
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1
, =1.5
2
, =2.53
3
, =5
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1
,1/ =1.5
2
,1/ =2.53
3
,1/ =5
10. Robust Optimal Reinsurance and Investment Problem with p-Thinning Dependent and Default ris
International Journal of Business Marketing and Management (IJBMM) Page 100
Figure. 7 Figure. 8
Figure. 9
V. Conclusion
This paper assumes that the insurer owns two types of insurance business with sparse dependence risk,
and the claim process is described by a diffusion approximation model, and secondly, the insurer expands its
investment types by investing in the financial market with a stock, a risk-free asset and a credit bond, with the
stock price described by a Heston model and the credit bond price described by an approximate model. The
credit bond price is described by the approximate model, and considering that the insurer is ambiguous averse,
the robust optimal reinsurance-investment problem is established, and the explicit expressions of the robust
optimal reinsurance-investment and optimal value function are obtained by using stochastic control theory,
dynamic programming principle, and HJB equation, and sensitivity analysis is performed on the model
parameters. Based on this paper, further discussions can be made: 1) other situations of the claim process can be
considered: such as jump diffusion or common shock. 2) time lag effects can be considered. 3) game problems
can be considered.
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