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Regional sea level projections and attribution

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TU Delft Climate Institute

Presentation given by Roderik van de Wal at the symposium on Sea Level Rise by TU Delft Climate Institute http://bit.ly/Y5dPvY

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Regional sea level Click to edit Master title style projections and attribution ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles Second level _____ _____ Second level ____ _____ Third level Roderik van de Wal Third level _____ _____ Fourth level ____ _____ Fourth level IMAU Utrecht Fifth level Nov 2012 損 Fifth level Contributions from: A. Slangen, C. Katsman, P. Leclercq, J. Gregory, B. Vermeersen 12/3/2012 1
Munks enigma (2002) Click to edit Master title style ____ __ ____ rise styles Click historic Master text ______ The to edit text Click to edit Master_____ ____ styles ____ _____ started too early, Second level _____ _____ Second level Third level Third level _____ _____ has level linear a trend, ____ _____ Fourth too Fourthlevel Fifth level and is too large 損 Fifth level (about sea level rise in the 20th century) 12/3/2012 2
The global budget Click to edit Master title style Blue: 1961-2003 Brown:1993-2003 ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles Second level _____ _____ Second level ____ _____ Third level Third level _____ _____ Fourth level Recent insights show that ____ _____ Fourth level Fifth level due to increased thermal expansion and and increased 損 Fifth level contribution from glaciers the budget maybe closed IPCC AR4 2007 Gregory et al. in press 12/3/2012 3
Click to Attribution edit Master title style ____ __ scale satisfying ____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Global ____ text styles Click to edit Master Second level _____ _____ *no gap between explained and observed Second level ____ _____ Third level Third level Local scale Fourthlevel _____ _____ ____ _____ Fourth level Fifth level *Some level 損 Fifth regions convincing climate response with distinct pattern *non-climate effects not to be excluded 12/3/2012 4
Projections style Click to edit Master title ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles Second level _____ _____ Second level ____ _____ Third level Third level _____ _____ Fourth level ____ _____ Fourth level Fifth level 損 Fifth level 12/3/2012 5 Excluding the effect of recent dynamical changes in ice sheets
How can ice change its mass Click to edit Master title style ____ __ ____ Master____ styles CLIMATE Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles Second level _____ _____ Second level ____ _____ Third level Third level _____ _____ Fourth level Lubrication effect ____ _____ Fourth level Fifth level 損 Fifth level DYNAMICS Butressing effect 12/3/2012 6
How to calculate SLC? Click to edit Master title style ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles Second level _____ _____ Second level ____ _____ Third level Third level _____ _____ Fourth level ____ _____ Fourth level Fifth level 損 Fifth level 12/3/2012 7
Predictions NL versus global Click to edit Master title style ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles Second level _____ _____ Second level RCP8.5 ____ _____ Third level Third level _____ _____ Fourth level ____ _____ Fourth level Fifth level Median 損 Fifth level NL +10% 12/3/2012 8
Possibility for early warning systems sea level rise Click to edit Master title style ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles Second level _____ _____ Second level ____ _____ Third level Third level _____ Greenland _____ Fourth level WU10 ____ _____ Fourth level Fifth level 損 Fifth level Gravity measurements Radar altimetry 12/3/2012 9 Source: Katsman (2011) Ice velocity
Future developments Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master ____ __ risk assessment ____ styles Hazard ____ text styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Expert solicitation exercises Second level _____ _____ Second level ____ _____ Third level _____ Third level Deterministic improvements _____ _____ Fourth level ____ Fourth level Fifth level 損 Fifth level 12/3/2012 10

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Regional sea level projections and attribution

  • 1. Regional sea level Click to edit Master title style projections and attribution ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles Second level _____ _____ Second level ____ _____ Third level Roderik van de Wal Third level _____ _____ Fourth level ____ _____ Fourth level IMAU Utrecht Fifth level Nov 2012 損 Fifth level Contributions from: A. Slangen, C. Katsman, P. Leclercq, J. Gregory, B. Vermeersen 12/3/2012 1
  • 2. Munks enigma (2002) Click to edit Master title style ____ __ ____ rise styles Click historic Master text ______ The to edit text Click to edit Master_____ ____ styles ____ _____ started too early, Second level _____ _____ Second level Third level Third level _____ _____ has level linear a trend, ____ _____ Fourth too Fourthlevel Fifth level and is too large 損 Fifth level (about sea level rise in the 20th century) 12/3/2012 2
  • 3. The global budget Click to edit Master title style Blue: 1961-2003 Brown:1993-2003 ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles Second level _____ _____ Second level ____ _____ Third level Third level _____ _____ Fourth level Recent insights show that ____ _____ Fourth level Fifth level due to increased thermal expansion and and increased 損 Fifth level contribution from glaciers the budget maybe closed IPCC AR4 2007 Gregory et al. in press 12/3/2012 3
  • 4. Click to Attribution edit Master title style ____ __ scale satisfying ____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Global ____ text styles Click to edit Master Second level _____ _____ *no gap between explained and observed Second level ____ _____ Third level Third level Local scale Fourthlevel _____ _____ ____ _____ Fourth level Fifth level *Some level 損 Fifth regions convincing climate response with distinct pattern *non-climate effects not to be excluded 12/3/2012 4
  • 5. Projections style Click to edit Master title ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles Second level _____ _____ Second level ____ _____ Third level Third level _____ _____ Fourth level ____ _____ Fourth level Fifth level 損 Fifth level 12/3/2012 5 Excluding the effect of recent dynamical changes in ice sheets
  • 6. How can ice change its mass Click to edit Master title style ____ __ ____ Master____ styles CLIMATE Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles Second level _____ _____ Second level ____ _____ Third level Third level _____ _____ Fourth level Lubrication effect ____ _____ Fourth level Fifth level 損 Fifth level DYNAMICS Butressing effect 12/3/2012 6
  • 7. How to calculate SLC? Click to edit Master title style ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles Second level _____ _____ Second level ____ _____ Third level Third level _____ _____ Fourth level ____ _____ Fourth level Fifth level 損 Fifth level 12/3/2012 7
  • 8. Predictions NL versus global Click to edit Master title style ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles Second level _____ _____ Second level RCP8.5 ____ _____ Third level Third level _____ _____ Fourth level ____ _____ Fourth level Fifth level Median 損 Fifth level NL +10% 12/3/2012 8
  • 9. Possibility for early warning systems sea level rise Click to edit Master title style ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles Second level _____ _____ Second level ____ _____ Third level Third level _____ Greenland _____ Fourth level WU10 ____ _____ Fourth level Fifth level 損 Fifth level Gravity measurements Radar altimetry 12/3/2012 9 Source: Katsman (2011) Ice velocity
  • 10. Future developments Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master ____ __ risk assessment ____ styles Hazard ____ text styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Expert solicitation exercises Second level _____ _____ Second level ____ _____ Third level _____ Third level Deterministic improvements _____ _____ Fourth level ____ Fourth level Fifth level 損 Fifth level 12/3/2012 10