Selected Economic Effects of Sanctions | Belarus Conference in Stockholm
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Presented by Dzimtry Kruk during the conference "Belarus at the crossroads: The complex role of sanctions in the context of totalitarian backsliding" on April 23, 2024.
Selected Economic Effects of Sanctions | Belarus Conference in Stockholm
- 1. Selected Economic Effects of Sanctions
- 2. Physical volume of exports: sharp reduction, rapid recovery, stagnation 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Exports, physical volume, seasonally adjusted, 2018=100 Oil "war" with Russia COVID impact Post-COVID foreign trade miracle Improved access to Ukrainian oil market Sanctions effects Positive (compensatory) effects
- 3. The share of exports to Russia increased considerably 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 The share of exports to Russia (physical volume), %
- 4. Physical volume of potash fertilizers exports: supply bottleneck due to logistic obstacles 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (e) 2022 (e) 2023 (e) Exports of potash fertilizers, thousand tones, gross volume
- 5. Potash fertilizers exports: weakening market power and inability to charge market price Commercial mistakes + minor effects of sanctions 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (e) 2022 (e) 2023 (e) Actual price of Belarusian potash fertilizers exports/ global price, % The effects of sanctions
- 6. Macro landscape: V-shaped recession and output losses 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 (e) GDP: Actual vs. Counterfactual (2018=100) Counterfactual: no war and sanctions Actual