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Session 1: Diocese of Toronto Clergy Conference 2012

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Tay Moss
Tay Moss

Bishop Philip Poole from the Diocese of Toronto created this powerpoint to describe the basic statistical trends affecting the Anglican Church in our area.

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Sustainable & Strategic Ministry Policy Have the resources (people, buildings, spiritual health, money) To carry out their mission. + Static R e Sustainable No clear mission to s Able to articulate and context. Mission o demonstrate a vital Inward looking, - + mission and ministry maintenance focussed u appropriate to the r context c Unsustainable e Strategic - Lack resources to carry out their mission
The Current Reality
8% of congregations 39% experienced a have experienced decline of less than 25% catastrophic decline in 17% experienced attendance in excess of numeric growth. 50%, Total average Sunday 36% of congregations attendance declined experienced alarming 5,355 people from 28, levels of decline in 605 to 23,250. excess of 25%.
Diocese of Toronto, ASA and Easter Attendance 2000-2009 Sunday Easter Poly. (Sunday) Poly. (Easter) 58906 59254 58459 53628 52368 51053 50633 49639 47889 46704 28605 28663 27272 26568 25674 25528 24754 23716 23316 23250 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year Full-Time Clergy 2001 209 2002 215 2003 207 Retirement Projections Based on Eligibility 2004 199 12% 2005 190 10% 9.7% 8% 2006 187 6% 5.1% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 2007 190 4% 4.6% 3.7% 3.7% 3.2% 2.8% 2.8% 2008 184 2% 0% 2009 186 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 179 Numerical 30 Change Percentage 14% decrease Change
Year # % Est. Ordinations Est. Total Full-time Already Retired 14 6.5% 2011 21 9.7% 11 169 2012 11 5.1% 6 164 2013 7 3.2% 2014 10 4.6% 2015 11 5.1% 2016 6 2.8% 2017 8 3.7% 2018 8 3.7% 2019 10 4.6% 2020 10 4.6% 2021 6 2.8% 2011-21 122 56.5%
More than half of Canadians in the 15-to-29 age cohort either have no religion or never attend a service of worship, says Statistics Canada. Only 22 per cent say religion is very important to them, down from 34 per cent in 2002. What growth there has been in religious participation has been due to immigration. Unfortunately for us, the current source countries for immigration are not predominantly Christian let alone Anglican.
Full time planter to Mandarin Population New Church Plant underway in Ajax Internal church plant to Urban Trend-setters downtown Intentional missional renewal/reboots at two historic downtown parishes Reclustering/hub parishes in Trent-Durham Fresh Expressions/Reach Grants spawning Missional Transformation Process (14 parishes, to 25 by 2013)
So, wheres the growth?
Layering of age-cohort data over congregational statistics has pointed out some further areas of concern: o Identified 11 congregations that are terminal, continuous significant decline beyond likelihood of turnaround, unable to sustain ministry and plant o 15 congregations in peril significant continuing decline in ASA makes sustainability unlikely, concerning age profile with significant number of congregation over 65
Where is the greatest decline? York Mills Scarborough -420 -660 Eglinton -582 Etobicoke -412
"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore."

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Session 1: Diocese of Toronto Clergy Conference 2012

  • 1. Sustainable & Strategic Ministry Policy Have the resources (people, buildings, spiritual health, money) To carry out their mission. + Static R e Sustainable No clear mission to s Able to articulate and context. Mission o demonstrate a vital Inward looking, - + mission and ministry maintenance focussed u appropriate to the r context c Unsustainable e Strategic - Lack resources to carry out their mission
  • 3. 8% of congregations 39% experienced a have experienced decline of less than 25% catastrophic decline in 17% experienced attendance in excess of numeric growth. 50%, Total average Sunday 36% of congregations attendance declined experienced alarming 5,355 people from 28, levels of decline in 605 to 23,250. excess of 25%.
  • 4. Diocese of Toronto, ASA and Easter Attendance 2000-2009 Sunday Easter Poly. (Sunday) Poly. (Easter) 58906 59254 58459 53628 52368 51053 50633 49639 47889 46704 28605 28663 27272 26568 25674 25528 24754 23716 23316 23250 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
  • 5. Year Full-Time Clergy 2001 209 2002 215 2003 207 Retirement Projections Based on Eligibility 2004 199 12% 2005 190 10% 9.7% 8% 2006 187 6% 5.1% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 2007 190 4% 4.6% 3.7% 3.7% 3.2% 2.8% 2.8% 2008 184 2% 0% 2009 186 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 179 Numerical 30 Change Percentage 14% decrease Change
  • 6. Year # % Est. Ordinations Est. Total Full-time Already Retired 14 6.5% 2011 21 9.7% 11 169 2012 11 5.1% 6 164 2013 7 3.2% 2014 10 4.6% 2015 11 5.1% 2016 6 2.8% 2017 8 3.7% 2018 8 3.7% 2019 10 4.6% 2020 10 4.6% 2021 6 2.8% 2011-21 122 56.5%
  • 7. More than half of Canadians in the 15-to-29 age cohort either have no religion or never attend a service of worship, says Statistics Canada. Only 22 per cent say religion is very important to them, down from 34 per cent in 2002. What growth there has been in religious participation has been due to immigration. Unfortunately for us, the current source countries for immigration are not predominantly Christian let alone Anglican.
  • 8. Full time planter to Mandarin Population New Church Plant underway in Ajax Internal church plant to Urban Trend-setters downtown Intentional missional renewal/reboots at two historic downtown parishes Reclustering/hub parishes in Trent-Durham Fresh Expressions/Reach Grants spawning Missional Transformation Process (14 parishes, to 25 by 2013)
  • 9. So, wheres the growth?
  • 10. Layering of age-cohort data over congregational statistics has pointed out some further areas of concern: o Identified 11 congregations that are terminal, continuous significant decline beyond likelihood of turnaround, unable to sustain ministry and plant o 15 congregations in peril significant continuing decline in ASA makes sustainability unlikely, concerning age profile with significant number of congregation over 65
  • 11. Where is the greatest decline? York Mills Scarborough -420 -660 Eglinton -582 Etobicoke -412
  • 12. "Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore."