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SEVS scenario presentation

futuramb
futuramb

Scenario planning widens perspectives on future possibilities by examining multiple scenarios. It addresses challenges like collective blind spots, fragmented thinking, and balancing different viewpoints. Scenarios help identify important trends, uncertainties, and driving forces. The SEVS project used a scenario planning process to explore sustainable transportation solutions, showing vehicles can be both safe and energy efficient. Further work is needed to develop these solutions through merging society, technology, and different knowledge areas.

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Scenario planning - widening the perspective in SEVS P A Martin B旦rjesson www.futuramb.se martin@futuramb.se @futuramb +46 704 262891 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
Blind spot = great risk Uncertainty in time Future Uncertainty in issue Traditional prediction Possible future outcomes Identify the most important trends and driving forces! 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
Uncertainty in time Future Scenario A Scenario B Uncertainty in issue Possible Traditional prediction future outcomes Scenario C Scenario D Identify the uncertainties with most impact = critical uncertainties 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
Proactivity The SEVS scenarios Critical uncertainties Political control ECO RADICALISM IN Scenarios POLITICAL HARMONY No change in Radical change in transportation transportation patterns by patterns by life style life style INCREMENTAL ECO DEVELOPMENT INDIVIDUAL Scenarios Political passivity 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
Scenario planning process 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
Scenario planning assumes an outside-in perspective... External environment rap es Ec and og valu on co hy om m Transaction em rs, y, pan d d to ind ie an l fac environment us s cia trie So s Internal world tio s ns Tec nnov an eg law di hn atio d r s, ula an olitic olo gy n P Environment and ecology 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
...and facilitates a search for Visible underlying driving F E G forces and critical effects uncertainties ? D Economy, industries and Technology companies development X and innovation ? C Politics, laws and regulations Environment Driving forces and ecology - critical uncertainties Social factors, valuesB Aand demography - predetermined elements 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
Scenario planning - meeting 3 challenges 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
Challenge 1 - Collective blind spot due to group think Uncertainty in time Future Prediction Uncertainty in issue Possible future outcomes 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
Challenge 2 - Inaction (or scattering of resources) due to fragmented perspectives Uncertainty in time Future Prediction Prediction Uncertainty in issue Prediction Possible future Prediction outcomes 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
Challenge 3 - balancing different groups, processes and knowledge areas Future ? Solving the problems of the Solving tomorrows future with todays tools problems with tomorrows tools Context/situation Analysts, politicians & leaders Engineers Solving todays problems & researchers Solving todays with todays tools problems with (everybody) tomorrows tools Current Current Technologies/knowledge/tools Future 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
SEVS scenario presentation
SEVS scenario presentation
SEVS scenario presentation
SEVS scenario presentation

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SEVS scenario presentation

  • 1. Scenario planning - widening the perspective in SEVS P A Martin B旦rjesson www.futuramb.se martin@futuramb.se @futuramb +46 704 262891 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
  • 2. Blind spot = great risk Uncertainty in time Future Uncertainty in issue Traditional prediction Possible future outcomes Identify the most important trends and driving forces! 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
  • 3. Uncertainty in time Future Scenario A Scenario B Uncertainty in issue Possible Traditional prediction future outcomes Scenario C Scenario D Identify the uncertainties with most impact = critical uncertainties 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
  • 4. Proactivity The SEVS scenarios Critical uncertainties Political control ECO RADICALISM IN Scenarios POLITICAL HARMONY No change in Radical change in transportation transportation patterns by patterns by life style life style INCREMENTAL ECO DEVELOPMENT INDIVIDUAL Scenarios Political passivity 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
  • 5. Scenario planning process 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
  • 6. Scenario planning assumes an outside-in perspective... External environment rap es Ec and og valu on co hy om m Transaction em rs, y, pan d d to ind ie an l fac environment us s cia trie So s Internal world tio s ns Tec nnov an eg law di hn atio d r s, ula an olitic olo gy n P Environment and ecology 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
  • 7. ...and facilitates a search for Visible underlying driving F E G forces and critical effects uncertainties ? D Economy, industries and Technology companies development X and innovation ? C Politics, laws and regulations Environment Driving forces and ecology - critical uncertainties Social factors, valuesB Aand demography - predetermined elements 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
  • 8. Scenario planning - meeting 3 challenges 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
  • 9. Challenge 1 - Collective blind spot due to group think Uncertainty in time Future Prediction Uncertainty in issue Possible future outcomes 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
  • 10. Challenge 2 - Inaction (or scattering of resources) due to fragmented perspectives Uncertainty in time Future Prediction Prediction Uncertainty in issue Prediction Possible future Prediction outcomes 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010
  • 11. Challenge 3 - balancing different groups, processes and knowledge areas Future ? Solving the problems of the Solving tomorrows future with todays tools problems with tomorrows tools Context/situation Analysts, politicians & leaders Engineers Solving todays problems & researchers Solving todays with todays tools problems with (everybody) tomorrows tools Current Current Technologies/knowledge/tools Future 2010-06-15 息 SEVS 2010