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Solar rooftop market analysis

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Arun kumar

The document discusses the potential for rooftop solar projects in Odisha, India. It notes that only one 500 kW project has been installed so far. The state aims to develop 50 MW of rooftop solar capacity during the policy period. Projects from 100 kW to 500 kW would be allowed, with 30% of costs subsidized. Surplus power would be fed to the grid. The document estimates the total rooftop potential in Odisha based on housing statistics could be over 471 MW based on assumptions about roof space and panel installation. It concludes that rooftop solar has great potential but will require increased awareness, standardization, policy support, and cost reductions to achieve large scale adoption.

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SOLAR ROOFTOP POTENTIAL IN ODISHA
PROJECT ON CONSUMER SIDE OF METER Only one project of 500 KWp Rooftop Solar PV Project was installed at the Kalinga Institute of Social Sciences. The State targets a capacity of 50 MW through such solar projects during the policy control period. 100 kW to 500 kW wherein aggregation of capacity from smaller roofs is allowed. 30% of the cost would be provided as subsidy and 70% to be met by the consumer. Systems are to be grid connected and do not have battery back-up. Surplus solar power from the project is fed to the grid. GRIDCO shall procure power from such projects in accordance with the OERC regulations for net-metering/gross metering from time to time. Eligible developers are allowed to avail the relevant subsidies and incentives from MNRE under JNNSM scheme. Further, State Government shall give incentive of 50 paise per unit of gross generation from systems installed by residential consumers under this scheme
MARKET ESTIMATION OF ODISHA
TOTAL NO. OF HOUSE HOLDS 2898947 1990498 908450 12330265 10394052 1936212 23.51% 19.15% 46.92% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00% 0 2000000 4000000 6000000 8000000 10000000 12000000 14000000 TOTAL RURAL URBAN CONCRETE HOUSES TOTAL NO. OF HOUSES PERCENTAGE SOURCE 2011 CENSUS INCREASED BY CAGR OF 1% AS PER POPULATION RISE IN STATE
URBAN HOUSEHOLD TO ELECTRIFIED HOUSE 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 TOTAL NO. HOUSE HOLD ELECTRICITY SOURCE 2011 CENSUS INCREASED BY CAGR OF 1% AS PER POPULATION RISE IN STATE
URBAN HOUSE ELECTRIFIED BY SOLAR 48 48 79 7 257 89 55 94 89 21 104 161 44 17 102 22 441 63 234 18 23 11 15 123 17 80 43 41 87 32 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 SOLAR ENERGYSOLAR ENERGY SOURCE 2011 CENSUS INCREASED BY CAGR OF 1% AS PER POPULATION RISE IN STATE
RURAL HOUSEHOLD TO ELECTRIFIED HOUSE 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 TOTAL NO. HOUSE HOLD ELECTRICITY
RURAL HOUSES ELECTRIFIED BY SOLAR 868 210 385 252 2309 2036 1604 1896 885 1449 1098 969 1045 456 948 984 538 844 1518 492 781 287 312 1581 1173 3515 890 16201542 1010 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 SOLAR ENERGY SOLAR ENERGY SOURCE 2011 CENSUS INCREASED BY CAGR OF 1% AS PER POPULATION RISE IN STATE
ODISHA ROOFTOP MARKET POTENTIAL TOTAL HOUSE HOLD IN ODISHA. %Having flat, concrete house Average Area per roof Total roof top area suitable for PV Size of one PV panel No. of Panel that can fit the total roof top area Power per panel Total MW Potential = No. of Panels * Power Per panel Calculation Based on 2011 Census As population increase is 1% per year a growth of 7% to be added to 2011 census.
AREA REQUIRED Size of system No. of panels Panel area (m2) Roof area required (m2) 2.50kW 10 14.4 19.4 2.75kW 11 15.8 21.2 3.00kW 12 17.3 22.9 3.25kW 13 18.7 24.6 3.50kW 14 20.2 26.4 3.75kW 15 21.6 28.1 4.00kW 16 23.0 29.8 Size of system versus roof space
District CONCRETE AREA OF AVERAGE HOUSE IN ODISHA(m2) SUITABLE ARE FOR PV SUITABLE AREA FOR ROOF TOP NO. OF PANELS MAX POWER (MW) MAX POWER IN 2016 (GW) BARGARH 76,487 35 5% 133852 68996.01 15.87 0.02 JHARSUGUDA 27,585 35 5% 48274 24883.38 5.72 0.01 SAMBALPUR 37,706 35 5% 65986 34013.14 7.82 0.01 DEBAGARH 2,998 35 5% 5247 2704.38 0.62 0.00 SUNDARGARH 72,892 35 5% 127561 65753.09 15.12 0.02 KENDHUJHAR 38,298 35 5% 67022 34547.16 7.95 0.01 MAYURUBHANJ 38,074 35 5% 66630 34345.10 7.90 0.01 BALESWAR 1,05,741 35 5% 185047 95384.92 21.94 0.02 BHADRAK 59,355 35 5% 103871 53541.88 12.31 0.01 KENDRAPADA 97,479 35 5% 170588 87932.09 20.22 0.02 JAGATSINGPUR 1,30,558 35 5% 228477 117771.39 27.09 0.03 CUTTACK 2,52,565 35 5% 441989 227829.25 52.40 0.05 JAJPUR 1,46,107 35 5% 255687 131797.55 30.31 0.03 DHENKANAL 90,475 35 5% 158331 81614.05 18.77 0.02 ANGUL 66,439 35 5% 116268 59932.09 13.78 0.01 NAYAGARH 66,176 35 5% 115808 59694.85 13.73 0.01 KHORDA 2,13,684 35 5% 373947 192756.19 44.33 0.04 PURI 1,05,614 35 5% 184825 95270.36 21.91 0.02 GANJAM 4,06,688 35 5% 711704 366857.73 84.38 0.08 GAJAPATI 27,217 35 5% 47630 24551.42 5.65 0.01 KANDHMAL 8,910 35 5% 15593 8037.37 1.85 0.00 BAUDH 13,980 35 5% 24465 12610.82 2.90 0.00 SUNBARNAPUR 25,544 35 5% 44702 23042.27 5.30 0.01 BOLANGIR 56,101 35 5% 98177 50606.57 11.64 0.01 NUAPADA 9,277 35 5% 16235 8368.43 1.92 0.00 KALAHANDI 21,985 35 5% 38474 19831.83 4.56 0.00 RAYGADA 30,436 35 5% 53263 27455.15 6.31 0.01 NABARANGPUR 7,446 35 5% 13031 6716.75 1.54 0.00 KORAPUT 31,242 35 5% 54674 28182.22 6.48 0.01 MALKANGIRI 4,342 35 5% 7599 3916.75 0.90 0.00 TOTAL 471.26 0.47 SOURCE 2011 CENSUS INCREASED BY CAGR OF 1% AS PER POPULATION RISE IN STATE
DISTRICT POTENTIAL(TOTAL 471 MW) 16 6 8 1 15 8 8 22 12 20 27 52 30 19 14 14 44 22 84 6 2 3 5 12 2 5 6 2 6 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 MAX POWER (MW) MAX POWER (MW)
ASSUMPTION FOR FINANCIAL MODELING INSTALLATION CAPACITY(KW) 10 CAPITAL COST 1.2 Lacs per kW for kW scale system O&M COST 0.75% Of capital cost ESCALATION IN O&M COST 5.72% Annually INVERTER REPLACEMENT YEAR 13TH year INVERTER COST DURING REPLACEMENT 3.81% Of capital cost CUF 18% Annually PERFORMANCE DEGRADATION 1% Of energy generation AUXILARY CONSUMPTION 0.25% Years USEFUL LIFE 25 year DEB TO EQUITY RATION 70:30:00 LOAN T 70% EQUITY 30% LOAN TENURE 10 YEARS INTREST RATE ON LOAN 13% ANNUALLY INSURANCE COST 0.35% Annually INTREST ON WORKING CAPITAL 12% Annually WORKING CAPITAL 1 Months O&M Expense 1 Months Energy charge at normative CUF RATE OF DEPRECIATION 6% FOR 1ST 10 YEAR MINIMUM ALTERNATE TAX 20.01% Annually for 1st 10 year CORPORATE TAX 32.45% Annually ROE POST TAX 16% as per cerc DISCOUNT FACTOR 10.95% Annually
COST SAVING PER 2KW System capacity = 2 kWp CUF :19% Capital Expenditure = INR 88,000/KW Monthly generation in Bhubaneswar = 330units Energy loss due to grid outage in Bhubaneswar = 10 units Net generation = 320 units/month Grid electricity rate = INR 5.4 /unit Waived off electricity bill = INR 1728 /month Total benefit per year = INR 20736 Tax Benefit = 20.008% Total Benefit =INR 24883.60 Payback period for the investment = 7.07 years Grant/subsidy/bulk purchasing will help in reducing the capital cost of the system and then reduce the payback period. TARIFF CALCULATION
CONCLUSION: Roof top solar PV systems have great potential. There is a need for awareness creation both about rooftop solar PV systems/ technology packages as well as about the financing avenues available. There is need for standardization. The policy support is essential in terms of regulations for net metering, grid interconnection, and energy accounting. There is a need for promoting large scale, local manufacturing of dual function inverters (functionality of both grid-tied and hybrid inverters) to reduce cost. There is need for technical innovations in storage technologies - mainly to reduce costs and improve efficiency. Roof tops solar PV systems can play an important role in providing reliable and assured power for buildings and establishments.
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Solar rooftop market analysis

  • 2. PROJECT ON CONSUMER SIDE OF METER Only one project of 500 KWp Rooftop Solar PV Project was installed at the Kalinga Institute of Social Sciences. The State targets a capacity of 50 MW through such solar projects during the policy control period. 100 kW to 500 kW wherein aggregation of capacity from smaller roofs is allowed. 30% of the cost would be provided as subsidy and 70% to be met by the consumer. Systems are to be grid connected and do not have battery back-up. Surplus solar power from the project is fed to the grid. GRIDCO shall procure power from such projects in accordance with the OERC regulations for net-metering/gross metering from time to time. Eligible developers are allowed to avail the relevant subsidies and incentives from MNRE under JNNSM scheme. Further, State Government shall give incentive of 50 paise per unit of gross generation from systems installed by residential consumers under this scheme
  • 4. TOTAL NO. OF HOUSE HOLDS 2898947 1990498 908450 12330265 10394052 1936212 23.51% 19.15% 46.92% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00% 0 2000000 4000000 6000000 8000000 10000000 12000000 14000000 TOTAL RURAL URBAN CONCRETE HOUSES TOTAL NO. OF HOUSES PERCENTAGE SOURCE 2011 CENSUS INCREASED BY CAGR OF 1% AS PER POPULATION RISE IN STATE
  • 5. URBAN HOUSEHOLD TO ELECTRIFIED HOUSE 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 TOTAL NO. HOUSE HOLD ELECTRICITY SOURCE 2011 CENSUS INCREASED BY CAGR OF 1% AS PER POPULATION RISE IN STATE
  • 6. URBAN HOUSE ELECTRIFIED BY SOLAR 48 48 79 7 257 89 55 94 89 21 104 161 44 17 102 22 441 63 234 18 23 11 15 123 17 80 43 41 87 32 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 SOLAR ENERGYSOLAR ENERGY SOURCE 2011 CENSUS INCREASED BY CAGR OF 1% AS PER POPULATION RISE IN STATE
  • 7. RURAL HOUSEHOLD TO ELECTRIFIED HOUSE 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 TOTAL NO. HOUSE HOLD ELECTRICITY
  • 8. RURAL HOUSES ELECTRIFIED BY SOLAR 868 210 385 252 2309 2036 1604 1896 885 1449 1098 969 1045 456 948 984 538 844 1518 492 781 287 312 1581 1173 3515 890 16201542 1010 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 SOLAR ENERGY SOLAR ENERGY SOURCE 2011 CENSUS INCREASED BY CAGR OF 1% AS PER POPULATION RISE IN STATE
  • 9. ODISHA ROOFTOP MARKET POTENTIAL TOTAL HOUSE HOLD IN ODISHA. %Having flat, concrete house Average Area per roof Total roof top area suitable for PV Size of one PV panel No. of Panel that can fit the total roof top area Power per panel Total MW Potential = No. of Panels * Power Per panel Calculation Based on 2011 Census As population increase is 1% per year a growth of 7% to be added to 2011 census.
  • 10. AREA REQUIRED Size of system No. of panels Panel area (m2) Roof area required (m2) 2.50kW 10 14.4 19.4 2.75kW 11 15.8 21.2 3.00kW 12 17.3 22.9 3.25kW 13 18.7 24.6 3.50kW 14 20.2 26.4 3.75kW 15 21.6 28.1 4.00kW 16 23.0 29.8 Size of system versus roof space
  • 11. District CONCRETE AREA OF AVERAGE HOUSE IN ODISHA(m2) SUITABLE ARE FOR PV SUITABLE AREA FOR ROOF TOP NO. OF PANELS MAX POWER (MW) MAX POWER IN 2016 (GW) BARGARH 76,487 35 5% 133852 68996.01 15.87 0.02 JHARSUGUDA 27,585 35 5% 48274 24883.38 5.72 0.01 SAMBALPUR 37,706 35 5% 65986 34013.14 7.82 0.01 DEBAGARH 2,998 35 5% 5247 2704.38 0.62 0.00 SUNDARGARH 72,892 35 5% 127561 65753.09 15.12 0.02 KENDHUJHAR 38,298 35 5% 67022 34547.16 7.95 0.01 MAYURUBHANJ 38,074 35 5% 66630 34345.10 7.90 0.01 BALESWAR 1,05,741 35 5% 185047 95384.92 21.94 0.02 BHADRAK 59,355 35 5% 103871 53541.88 12.31 0.01 KENDRAPADA 97,479 35 5% 170588 87932.09 20.22 0.02 JAGATSINGPUR 1,30,558 35 5% 228477 117771.39 27.09 0.03 CUTTACK 2,52,565 35 5% 441989 227829.25 52.40 0.05 JAJPUR 1,46,107 35 5% 255687 131797.55 30.31 0.03 DHENKANAL 90,475 35 5% 158331 81614.05 18.77 0.02 ANGUL 66,439 35 5% 116268 59932.09 13.78 0.01 NAYAGARH 66,176 35 5% 115808 59694.85 13.73 0.01 KHORDA 2,13,684 35 5% 373947 192756.19 44.33 0.04 PURI 1,05,614 35 5% 184825 95270.36 21.91 0.02 GANJAM 4,06,688 35 5% 711704 366857.73 84.38 0.08 GAJAPATI 27,217 35 5% 47630 24551.42 5.65 0.01 KANDHMAL 8,910 35 5% 15593 8037.37 1.85 0.00 BAUDH 13,980 35 5% 24465 12610.82 2.90 0.00 SUNBARNAPUR 25,544 35 5% 44702 23042.27 5.30 0.01 BOLANGIR 56,101 35 5% 98177 50606.57 11.64 0.01 NUAPADA 9,277 35 5% 16235 8368.43 1.92 0.00 KALAHANDI 21,985 35 5% 38474 19831.83 4.56 0.00 RAYGADA 30,436 35 5% 53263 27455.15 6.31 0.01 NABARANGPUR 7,446 35 5% 13031 6716.75 1.54 0.00 KORAPUT 31,242 35 5% 54674 28182.22 6.48 0.01 MALKANGIRI 4,342 35 5% 7599 3916.75 0.90 0.00 TOTAL 471.26 0.47 SOURCE 2011 CENSUS INCREASED BY CAGR OF 1% AS PER POPULATION RISE IN STATE
  • 12. DISTRICT POTENTIAL(TOTAL 471 MW) 16 6 8 1 15 8 8 22 12 20 27 52 30 19 14 14 44 22 84 6 2 3 5 12 2 5 6 2 6 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 MAX POWER (MW) MAX POWER (MW)
  • 13. ASSUMPTION FOR FINANCIAL MODELING INSTALLATION CAPACITY(KW) 10 CAPITAL COST 1.2 Lacs per kW for kW scale system O&M COST 0.75% Of capital cost ESCALATION IN O&M COST 5.72% Annually INVERTER REPLACEMENT YEAR 13TH year INVERTER COST DURING REPLACEMENT 3.81% Of capital cost CUF 18% Annually PERFORMANCE DEGRADATION 1% Of energy generation AUXILARY CONSUMPTION 0.25% Years USEFUL LIFE 25 year DEB TO EQUITY RATION 70:30:00 LOAN T 70% EQUITY 30% LOAN TENURE 10 YEARS INTREST RATE ON LOAN 13% ANNUALLY INSURANCE COST 0.35% Annually INTREST ON WORKING CAPITAL 12% Annually WORKING CAPITAL 1 Months O&M Expense 1 Months Energy charge at normative CUF RATE OF DEPRECIATION 6% FOR 1ST 10 YEAR MINIMUM ALTERNATE TAX 20.01% Annually for 1st 10 year CORPORATE TAX 32.45% Annually ROE POST TAX 16% as per cerc DISCOUNT FACTOR 10.95% Annually
  • 14. COST SAVING PER 2KW System capacity = 2 kWp CUF :19% Capital Expenditure = INR 88,000/KW Monthly generation in Bhubaneswar = 330units Energy loss due to grid outage in Bhubaneswar = 10 units Net generation = 320 units/month Grid electricity rate = INR 5.4 /unit Waived off electricity bill = INR 1728 /month Total benefit per year = INR 20736 Tax Benefit = 20.008% Total Benefit =INR 24883.60 Payback period for the investment = 7.07 years Grant/subsidy/bulk purchasing will help in reducing the capital cost of the system and then reduce the payback period. TARIFF CALCULATION
  • 15. CONCLUSION: Roof top solar PV systems have great potential. There is a need for awareness creation both about rooftop solar PV systems/ technology packages as well as about the financing avenues available. There is need for standardization. The policy support is essential in terms of regulations for net metering, grid interconnection, and energy accounting. There is a need for promoting large scale, local manufacturing of dual function inverters (functionality of both grid-tied and hybrid inverters) to reduce cost. There is need for technical innovations in storage technologies - mainly to reduce costs and improve efficiency. Roof tops solar PV systems can play an important role in providing reliable and assured power for buildings and establishments.