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Monitoring glacier variations in the Urubamba and Vilcabamba Mountain Ranges

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InfoAndina CONDESAN
InfoAndina CONDESAN

The document analyzes satellite images from 1991, 1996, 2004, and 2011 to measure glacier areas in the Urubamba and Vilcabamba mountain ranges in Peru. It finds that over this period, all glaciers showed losses between 29.4-98.7% of their 1991 areas. For the Urubamba range, glacier coverage decreased from 64.8 km2 in 1991 to 29.4 km2 in 2011, while for the Vilcabamba range it decreased from 220.3 km2 to 129.4 km2. Losses were stronger for glaciers below 5400 meters. Analysis of precipitation data found no significant trends, suggesting losses are due to increasing air temperatures of 0.1-0.39°

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5300 5260 5235 5235 5211 5150 5150 5125 5100 5086 5053 5046 4949 4802 44.1 33.7 53.4 63.9 75.2 55.4 79.6 93.4 95.2 79.7 98.7 80.0 94.9 78.9 6271 5991 5991 5880 5771 5605 5500 5473 5450 5414 5400 5400 5400 47.2 69.6 29.4 50.9 41.2 37.0 47.0 47.6 50.3 46.3 50.8 67.2 70.1 Monitoring glacier variations in the Urubamba and Vilcabamba Mountain Ranges, Peru, using Landsat 5 images SUAREZ Wilson1,3, CERNA Marco1, ORDÓÑEZ Julio1, FREY Holger2, GIRÁLDEZ Claudia2, HUGGEL Christian2. REFERENCES National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru (SENAMHI)1 , University of Zurich 2 , La Molina National Agrarian University of Peru (UNALM) 3 Correspondence to: Dirección General de Hidrología – SENAMHI Perú. Jr. Cahuide 785 Lima 11 Perú. dgh@senamhi.gob.pe The Chains of Urubamba and Vilcanota Mountains are located in in the Cusco region in southern Peru, about 800 km from the city of Lima. The mountain ranges constitute the boundary of the Andes and the jungle and have an elevation range from 800 to 6200 m a.s.l. Due to the difficult access to the glaciers of the mountain ranges, satellite-based monitoring is required. Glaciers are grouped by main peaks (“nevado” in Spanish), which can drop different glacier tongues. The main map to the right (Landsat 5, June 1996), shows the two mountain chains separated by the river Urubamba. INTRODUCTION DATAAND METHODOLOGY The method used to characterize the ice is based on Silverio and Jacquet (2005) from the Cordillera Blanca, which is based on the normalized difference snow index "NDSI”. Eight satellite scenes (=4 mosaics) of the dry months (southern winter) were used from the years 1991, 1996, 2004 and 2011. Data from rainfall stations was used to identify precipitation-free periods to avoid snow cover in the satellite images. A second analysis was performed with rain data (1966 - 2010) to identify potential trends and breaks in precipitation patterns using nonparametric tests: Mann - Kendall for trends and CUSUM for the breaks were applied (95% confidence). Fig. 2: Glacier areas in the Urubamba and Vilcabamba mountain ranges in 1991, 2004, and 2011. The number in parentheses identifies its position in Fig.1. Text in pink background shows the peaks below 5400 m a.sl. Area loss (in %) refers to the period 1991-2011. A B European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2013 Macchu Picchu, Incas City 11.02 7.37 3.27 11.55 8.67 6.74 2.06 1.86 5.18 1.72 2.78 1.29 1.13 0.22 8.13 5.20 1.93 7.11 5.25 3.74 0.83 0.81 1.91 0.60 0.86 0.24 0.20 0.02 6.94 4.11 1.70 5.91 4.42 2.80 0.64 0.52 1.40 0.32 0.46 0.13 0.07 0.01 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 (01)CCOLQUE CRUZ (02)CHICON (03)MARCONI (04) HUAJAYHUILLCA (05)VERONICA (06)TERIJUAY (07)SIRIHUANI (08) PUMAHUANJA (09) HALANCOMA (10)CAPACSAYA (11)BONANTA (12) PATACANCHA (13)QUILLOC (14)C.PADREYOC Surface(km²) Urubamba Mountains 1991 2004 2011 10.30 3.99 2.51 5.85 5.92 4.79 2.58 1.18 2.64 1.57 1.12 1.75 0.87 0.46 8.12 2.91 1.28 2.62 2.19 2.43 0.71 0.11 0.28 0.39 0.03 0.83 0.19 0.13 5.76 2.65 1.17 2.11 1.47 2.13 0.53 0.08 0.13 0.32 0.01 0.35 0.04 0.10 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 (28) CHAUPIMAYO (29)RUNASAYOC (30)AMPAY (31)AMPARAY (32) CHAUPILOMA (33)Occoro (34)MOYOC (35) CHOQUEZAFRA (36)OCOBAMBA (37)CHUCUITO (38)PITUPACCHA (39)CAYCO (40) MANDORCASA (41) QUENUAORCO Surface(km²) Vilcabamba Mountains 1991 2004 2011 ALTITUDE (a.s.l.m) 5818 5530 5350 5361 5682 5264 5399 5246 5367 4962 5032 4982 4955 4863 LOST (%) 37.0 44.2 48.0 48.8 49.1 58.5 68.8 72.1 73.1 81.6 83.5 90.2 93.5 96.7 15.22 1.66 56.19 12.82 22.96 8.37 14.59 7.99 8.89 3.00 5.94 9.70 7.49 10.12 0.91 46.72 7.78 16.26 5.74 11.29 4.66 5.94 1.79 4.17 4.41 3.18 8.03 0.50 39.69 6.30 13.49 5.27 7.73 4.19 4.42 1.61 2.92 3.18 2.24 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 (15)SALCANTAY (16)PUMASILLO (17)SACSA (18)TUCARHUAY (19)PADREYOC (20)PANTA (21) CHOQUETACARPO (22)SOIROCOCHA (23)HUAMANTAY (24)SORAY (25) CORIHUAYNACHIN A (26)HUAYANAY (27)PALJAY Surface(km²) Vilcabamba Mountains 1991 2004 2011 SACSA RESULTS, CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION • Mark, B.G. ( 2002). Hot ice: glaciers in the tropics are making the press. Hydrological Processes 16, 3297–3302. • Rabatel, A., Francou, B., Soruco, A., Gomez, J., Caceres, B.,Ceballos, J., Basantes, R., Vuille, M., Sicart, J.-E., Huggel, C., Scheel, M., Lejeune, Y., Arnaud, Y., Collet, M., Condom, T., Consoli, G., Favier, V., Jomelli, V., Galarraga, R., Ginot, P., Maisincho,, Mendoza, J., Menegoz, M., Ramirez, E., Ribstein, P., Suarez, W., Villacis, M., Wagnon, P. (2013). Current state of glaciers in the tropical Andes: a multi-century perspective on glacier evolution and climate change, The Cryosphere 7, 81-102. • Silverio, W. and Jaquet J.-M. (2005). Glacial cover mapping (1987–1996) of the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) using satellite imagery, Remote Sensing of Environment 95, 342–350. • Vuille, M., B. Francou, P. Wagnon, I. Juen, G. Kaser, B.G. Mark, and R.S. Bradley. (2008). Climate change and tropical Andean glaciers – Past, present and future. Earth Science Reviews 89, 79-96. VERONICA SALKANTAY LEGEND GLACIER AREA LOST 1991-2011 White number underlined: 80 - 98.7% Orange number underlined: 60 - 80% White number : 40 - 60% Orange number : 29.4- 40% Yellow Letters: Precipitation Station •In the last 20 years all glaciers showed a loss in area between 98.7% (Pitupaccha) and 29.4% (Sacsa). For the years 1991, 1996, 2004, 2011 glacier coverage of Urubamba was of 64.8 km ², 49.4 km ², 36.9 km ² and 29.4 km ², for Vilcabamba 220.3 km ², 183.8 km ², 145.2 km ² and 129.4 km ². It was observed that the area loss is stronger at mountains with elevations below 5400 m a.s.l. (Fig. 2). •Precipitation analysis showed no significant changes in the trend or breaks in the series. •The analysis did not consider debris-covered glaciers, although these exist but are very rare (see example Salkantay) in Fig. 1. •According to Vuille et al. (2008) air temperature in the tropics has been increasing since 1930 at a rate of 0.1°C / decade, and Mark (2002) indicates that in the tropics the temperature increased at a rate from 0.35 to 0.39°C / decade between 1951-1999. Together with the lack of variations in precipitation patterns this indicates, that glacier loss will not stop and confirms the finding of Rabatel et al. (2013), that tropical glaciers below 5400 m a.s.l. are about to disappear in the coming years. Fig. 1: Mountain chains Vilcanota and Vilcabamba view from Landsat 5 June 1996 MacchuPicchu, Inca City

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Monitoring glacier variations in the Urubamba and Vilcabamba Mountain Ranges

  • 1. 5300 5260 5235 5235 5211 5150 5150 5125 5100 5086 5053 5046 4949 4802 44.1 33.7 53.4 63.9 75.2 55.4 79.6 93.4 95.2 79.7 98.7 80.0 94.9 78.9 6271 5991 5991 5880 5771 5605 5500 5473 5450 5414 5400 5400 5400 47.2 69.6 29.4 50.9 41.2 37.0 47.0 47.6 50.3 46.3 50.8 67.2 70.1 Monitoring glacier variations in the Urubamba and Vilcabamba Mountain Ranges, Peru, using Landsat 5 images SUAREZ Wilson1,3, CERNA Marco1, ORDÓÑEZ Julio1, FREY Holger2, GIRÁLDEZ Claudia2, HUGGEL Christian2. REFERENCES National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru (SENAMHI)1 , University of Zurich 2 , La Molina National Agrarian University of Peru (UNALM) 3 Correspondence to: Dirección General de Hidrología – SENAMHI Perú. Jr. Cahuide 785 Lima 11 Perú. dgh@senamhi.gob.pe The Chains of Urubamba and Vilcanota Mountains are located in in the Cusco region in southern Peru, about 800 km from the city of Lima. The mountain ranges constitute the boundary of the Andes and the jungle and have an elevation range from 800 to 6200 m a.s.l. Due to the difficult access to the glaciers of the mountain ranges, satellite-based monitoring is required. Glaciers are grouped by main peaks (“nevado” in Spanish), which can drop different glacier tongues. The main map to the right (Landsat 5, June 1996), shows the two mountain chains separated by the river Urubamba. INTRODUCTION DATAAND METHODOLOGY The method used to characterize the ice is based on Silverio and Jacquet (2005) from the Cordillera Blanca, which is based on the normalized difference snow index "NDSI”. Eight satellite scenes (=4 mosaics) of the dry months (southern winter) were used from the years 1991, 1996, 2004 and 2011. Data from rainfall stations was used to identify precipitation-free periods to avoid snow cover in the satellite images. A second analysis was performed with rain data (1966 - 2010) to identify potential trends and breaks in precipitation patterns using nonparametric tests: Mann - Kendall for trends and CUSUM for the breaks were applied (95% confidence). Fig. 2: Glacier areas in the Urubamba and Vilcabamba mountain ranges in 1991, 2004, and 2011. The number in parentheses identifies its position in Fig.1. Text in pink background shows the peaks below 5400 m a.sl. Area loss (in %) refers to the period 1991-2011. A B European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2013 Macchu Picchu, Incas City 11.02 7.37 3.27 11.55 8.67 6.74 2.06 1.86 5.18 1.72 2.78 1.29 1.13 0.22 8.13 5.20 1.93 7.11 5.25 3.74 0.83 0.81 1.91 0.60 0.86 0.24 0.20 0.02 6.94 4.11 1.70 5.91 4.42 2.80 0.64 0.52 1.40 0.32 0.46 0.13 0.07 0.01 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 (01)CCOLQUE CRUZ (02)CHICON (03)MARCONI (04) HUAJAYHUILLCA (05)VERONICA (06)TERIJUAY (07)SIRIHUANI (08) PUMAHUANJA (09) HALANCOMA (10)CAPACSAYA (11)BONANTA (12) PATACANCHA (13)QUILLOC (14)C.PADREYOC Surface(km²) Urubamba Mountains 1991 2004 2011 10.30 3.99 2.51 5.85 5.92 4.79 2.58 1.18 2.64 1.57 1.12 1.75 0.87 0.46 8.12 2.91 1.28 2.62 2.19 2.43 0.71 0.11 0.28 0.39 0.03 0.83 0.19 0.13 5.76 2.65 1.17 2.11 1.47 2.13 0.53 0.08 0.13 0.32 0.01 0.35 0.04 0.10 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 (28) CHAUPIMAYO (29)RUNASAYOC (30)AMPAY (31)AMPARAY (32) CHAUPILOMA (33)Occoro (34)MOYOC (35) CHOQUEZAFRA (36)OCOBAMBA (37)CHUCUITO (38)PITUPACCHA (39)CAYCO (40) MANDORCASA (41) QUENUAORCO Surface(km²) Vilcabamba Mountains 1991 2004 2011 ALTITUDE (a.s.l.m) 5818 5530 5350 5361 5682 5264 5399 5246 5367 4962 5032 4982 4955 4863 LOST (%) 37.0 44.2 48.0 48.8 49.1 58.5 68.8 72.1 73.1 81.6 83.5 90.2 93.5 96.7 15.22 1.66 56.19 12.82 22.96 8.37 14.59 7.99 8.89 3.00 5.94 9.70 7.49 10.12 0.91 46.72 7.78 16.26 5.74 11.29 4.66 5.94 1.79 4.17 4.41 3.18 8.03 0.50 39.69 6.30 13.49 5.27 7.73 4.19 4.42 1.61 2.92 3.18 2.24 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 (15)SALCANTAY (16)PUMASILLO (17)SACSA (18)TUCARHUAY (19)PADREYOC (20)PANTA (21) CHOQUETACARPO (22)SOIROCOCHA (23)HUAMANTAY (24)SORAY (25) CORIHUAYNACHIN A (26)HUAYANAY (27)PALJAY Surface(km²) Vilcabamba Mountains 1991 2004 2011 SACSA RESULTS, CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION • Mark, B.G. ( 2002). Hot ice: glaciers in the tropics are making the press. Hydrological Processes 16, 3297–3302. • Rabatel, A., Francou, B., Soruco, A., Gomez, J., Caceres, B.,Ceballos, J., Basantes, R., Vuille, M., Sicart, J.-E., Huggel, C., Scheel, M., Lejeune, Y., Arnaud, Y., Collet, M., Condom, T., Consoli, G., Favier, V., Jomelli, V., Galarraga, R., Ginot, P., Maisincho,, Mendoza, J., Menegoz, M., Ramirez, E., Ribstein, P., Suarez, W., Villacis, M., Wagnon, P. (2013). Current state of glaciers in the tropical Andes: a multi-century perspective on glacier evolution and climate change, The Cryosphere 7, 81-102. • Silverio, W. and Jaquet J.-M. (2005). Glacial cover mapping (1987–1996) of the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) using satellite imagery, Remote Sensing of Environment 95, 342–350. • Vuille, M., B. Francou, P. Wagnon, I. Juen, G. Kaser, B.G. Mark, and R.S. Bradley. (2008). Climate change and tropical Andean glaciers – Past, present and future. Earth Science Reviews 89, 79-96. VERONICA SALKANTAY LEGEND GLACIER AREA LOST 1991-2011 White number underlined: 80 - 98.7% Orange number underlined: 60 - 80% White number : 40 - 60% Orange number : 29.4- 40% Yellow Letters: Precipitation Station •In the last 20 years all glaciers showed a loss in area between 98.7% (Pitupaccha) and 29.4% (Sacsa). For the years 1991, 1996, 2004, 2011 glacier coverage of Urubamba was of 64.8 km ², 49.4 km ², 36.9 km ² and 29.4 km ², for Vilcabamba 220.3 km ², 183.8 km ², 145.2 km ² and 129.4 km ². It was observed that the area loss is stronger at mountains with elevations below 5400 m a.s.l. (Fig. 2). •Precipitation analysis showed no significant changes in the trend or breaks in the series. •The analysis did not consider debris-covered glaciers, although these exist but are very rare (see example Salkantay) in Fig. 1. •According to Vuille et al. (2008) air temperature in the tropics has been increasing since 1930 at a rate of 0.1°C / decade, and Mark (2002) indicates that in the tropics the temperature increased at a rate from 0.35 to 0.39°C / decade between 1951-1999. Together with the lack of variations in precipitation patterns this indicates, that glacier loss will not stop and confirms the finding of Rabatel et al. (2013), that tropical glaciers below 5400 m a.s.l. are about to disappear in the coming years. Fig. 1: Mountain chains Vilcanota and Vilcabamba view from Landsat 5 June 1996 MacchuPicchu, Inca City