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Summary Risk Report

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Sergey Makeev
Sergey Makeev

The document provides a summary risk report for an oil and gas production project. It includes details of 33 tasks in the project plan with their remaining durations and costs. It then lists 10 risks identified for the project with descriptions. The highest rated risks are key resources becoming unavailable, reusing previous design work, and power outages. Mitigation strategies are proposed to lower the likelihood and impacts of the risks.

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Summary Risk Report Plan Summary Title Copy of ExampleRegister-DownstreamOG.plan File name C:UsersburivoyYandexDiskRisksCopy of ExampleRegister-DownstreamOG.plan Plan finish date 11 Mar 09 Tasks with no progress 33 Plan remaining duration 1247 In progress tasks 0 Normal tasks 26 Completed tasks 0 Summary tasks 5 Total tasks 33 Milestone tasks 2 Resource assignments 44 Hammock tasks 0 Budget cost $67,975,229 Monitor tasks 0 Remaining cost $73,654,301 Calendars 4 Actual cost $0 Links 37 Total cost $73,654,301 Resources 10
Risk Inputs Task ID: A120 Remaining Duration: 18 Task Description: Tap well-head Remaining Cost: $54 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 16 Most Likely 18 Maximum 20 Notes Task ID: A160 Remaining Duration: 42 Task Description: Gas separator Remaining Cost: $1,457,330 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 37 Most Likely 42 Maximum 46 Notes Task ID: A180 Remaining Duration: 105 Task Description: FWKO Tank Remaining Cost: $1,751,575 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 100 Most Likely 105 Maximum 137 Notes Task ID: A190 Remaining Duration: 85 Task Description: Main water tank Remaining Cost: $751,020 Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle Minimum 76 Most Likely 85 Maximum 94 Notes Task ID: A230 Remaining Duration: 50 Task Description: Cooling ponds Remaining Cost: $676,750 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 45 Most Likely 50 Maximum 55 Notes Task ID: A250 Remaining Duration: 140 Task Description: Production tanks Remaining Cost: $4,803,500 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 133 Most Likely 140 Maximum 182 Notes Task ID: A260 Remaining Duration: 145 Task Description: Production pumps Remaining Cost: $3,131,595 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 129 Most Likely 145 Maximum 160 Notes
Task ID: A310 Remaining Duration: 142 Task Description: Pumpstation 5 Remaining Cost: $4,904,970 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 135 Most Likely 142 Maximum 185 Notes Task ID: A390 Remaining Duration: 0 Task Description: Project completion Remaining Cost: $0 Task ID: A100 Remaining Duration: 0 Task Description: Project Start Remaining Cost: $0 Task ID: A360 Remaining Duration: 26 Task Description: Level production tanks Remaining Cost: $260 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 23 Most Likely 26 Maximum 31 Notes Task ID: A110 Remaining Duration: 0 Task Description: Pre-production Remaining Cost: $4,250,114 Task ID: A140 Remaining Duration: 46 Task Description: High pressure stack Remaining Cost: $1,501,150 Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle Minimum 44 Most Likely 46 Maximum 60 Notes Task ID: A210 Remaining Duration: 80 Task Description: Auxilary pumps Remaining Cost: $2,002,000 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 71 Most Likely 80 Maximum 88 Notes Task ID: A220 Remaining Duration: 145 Task Description: Water treatment facility Remaining Cost: $2,502,610 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 138 Most Likely 145 Maximum 189 Notes Task ID: A200 Remaining Duration: 71 Task Description: Secondary water tank Remaining Cost: $346,585 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 67 Most Likely 71 Maximum 92 Notes
Task ID: A150 Remaining Duration: 57 Task Description: Low pressure stack Remaining Cost: $1,150,855 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 51 Most Likely 57 Maximum 68 Notes Task ID: A320 Remaining Duration: 131 Task Description: Depressurizing station Remaining Cost: $6,001,310 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 118 Most Likely 131 Maximum 157 Notes Task ID: A330 Remaining Duration: 136 Task Description: Main pipline to terminal Remaining Cost: $17,013,600 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 121 Most Likely 136 Maximum 150 Notes Task ID: A350 Remaining Duration: 30 Task Description: Field production facility tests Remaining Cost: $450 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 27 Most Likely 30 Notes
Maximum 36 Task ID: A380 Remaining Duration: 9 Task Description: Open pipeline to terminal Remaining Cost: $675 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 8 Most Likely 9 Maximum 10 Notes Task ID: A370 Remaining Duration: 19 Task Description: Level PS1 tanks Remaining Cost: $152 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 17 Most Likely 19 Maximum 21 Notes Task ID: A130 Remaining Duration: 0 Task Description: Construct Field Production Facility Remaining Cost: $4,109,335 Task ID: A170 Remaining Duration: 0 Task Description: Water Flow Remaining Cost: $8,030,540 Task ID: A240 Remaining Duration: 0 Task Description: Crude Flow Remaining Cost: $57,262,775 Task ID: A340 Remaining Duration: 0
Task Description: Production Remaining Cost: $1,537 Task ID: A300 Remaining Duration: 202 Task Description: Pumpstation 4 Remaining Cost: $6,009,090 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 180 Most Likely 202 Maximum 222 Notes Task ID: A290 Remaining Duration: 201 Task Description: Pumpstation 3 Remaining Cost: $5,258,040 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 181 Most Likely 201 Maximum 241 Notes Task ID: A280 Remaining Duration: 197 Task Description: Pumpstation 2 Remaining Cost: $5,131,895 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 187 Most Likely 197 Maximum 256 Notes Task ID: A270 Remaining Duration: 195 Task Description: Pumpstation 1 Remaining Cost: $5,008,775 Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle Minimum 176 Most Likely 195 Maximum 234 Notes Task ID: A400 Remaining Duration: 5 Task Description: Vendor installation Remaining Cost: $60 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 4 Most Likely 5 Maximum 6 Notes Task ID: A410 Remaining Duration: 12 Task Description: Expedite delivery Remaining Cost: $250,000 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 11 Most Likely 12 Maximum 13 Notes Task ID: A420 Remaining Duration: 15 Task Description: Source suitable uninterruptible power generators Remaining Cost: $4,000,000 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 14 Most Likely 15 Maximum 18 Notes
Templated Quick Risk Field Value Tasks Distribution Min Likely Max Correlation Description Uncertainty = L 12 Triangle 89% 100% 110% none Uncertainty = M 7 Triangle 90% 100% 120% none Uncertainty = H 7 Triangle 95% 100% 130% none Probabilistic Calendars Calendar: WeatherDelay From To Apply to Block size (days) Non working probability 31/Oct/05 01/Oct/05 Every year 7 15% 30/Nov/05 01/Nov/05 Every year 7 15% 31/Dec/05 01/Dec/05 Every year 7 20% 31/Jan/06 01/Jan/06 Every year 7 30% 28/Feb/06 01/Feb/06 Every year 7 30% 31/Mar/06 01/Mar/06 Every year 7 25% 30/Apr/06 01/Apr/06 Every year 7 15% 31/May/06 01/May/06 Every year 7 10% 30/Jun/06 01/Jun/06 Every year 7 5% 31/Jul/06 01/Jul/06 Every year 7 5% 31/Aug/06 01/Aug/06 Every year 7 10% 30/Sep/06 01/Sep/06 Every year 7 10% Resources No Data
Risk Outputs Project Finish Distribution Graph Title Value Minimum 09 Feb 09 Maximum 13 Jul 09 Mean 27 Apr 09 Median 28 Apr 09 Mode 07 May 09 Max Hits 97 Std Deviation 27.59 Variance 761.5 Skewness -0.051
Kurtosis 2.599 Bar Width: week
Project Cost Distribution Graph Title Value Minimum $73,653,005 Maximum $73,660,741 Mean $73,656,672 Median $73,656,639 Mode $73,656,750 Max Hits 153 Std Deviation 1,319 Variance 1,739,116 Skewness 0.115 Kurtosis 2.878 Bar Width: $500
Project NPV Distribution Graph Not Checked Project IRR Distribution Graph Not Checked Project Duration Sensitivity Tornado Graph The duration sensitivity of a task is a measure of the correlation between its duration and the duration (or dates) of the project (or a key task or summary).
Project Cost Sensitivity Tornado Graph The cost sensitivity of a task is a measure of the correlation between its cost and the cost of the project (or a key task or summary).
Project SSI Tornado Graph The schedule sensitivity index of a task is calculated by multiplying its criticality index by the ratio of its variance against the variance of the project (or key task).
Project Criticality Tornado Graph The criticality index of a task is the proportion of the iterations in which it was critical.
Project Cruciality Tornado Graph The cruciality of a task is calculated by multiplying its duration sensitivity by its criticality index.
Risk Register Risk Register Summary Total Risks 10 Proposed Risks 0 Open Risks 10 High 4 Medium 3 Low 2 Negligible 1 Impacted (Closed) Risks 0 Managed (Closed) Risks 0 Rejected (Closed) Risks 0 Threats 9 Opportunities 1 Risk Scoring Probability Scale Very Low Low Medium High Very High Up to 10% 10% to 35% 35% to 60% 60% to 75% 75% or higher Impact Scales and Types Very Low Low Medium High Very High Schedule* Up to 30 30 to 60 60 to 90 90 to 180 180 or higher Cost* Up to $500,000 $500,000 to $1,000,000 $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 $1,500,000 to $2,500,000 $2,500,000 or higher Performance* Failure to meet a minor acceptance criteria Failure to meet more than one minor acceptance criteria Shortfall in meeting acceptance criteria Significant shortfall in meeting acceptance criteria Failure to meet acceptance criteria * means impact is used in scoring Probability and Impact Scoring (PID) Risk Score is based on: Highest Impact Impact
Very Low Low Medium High Very High Very High 5 9 18 36 72 High 4 7 14 28 56 Medium 3 5 10 20 40 Low 2 3 6 12 24 Very Low 1 1 2 4 8 Key Up to 7 7 to 23 23 or higher Risk Matrix Pre-Mitigation Very Low Low Medium High Very High Very High 10 - Reuse previous design work High 5 - Power outtage, 3 - Attack on pipeline 4 - Key resource unavailable Medium 7 - Rework required for assembly and integration Low 8 - Testing fails 9 - Design changes 1 - Poor understanding and detail in specification Very Low 2 - Auxilary pump system failure
Post-Mitigation Very Low Low Medium High Very High Very High High 5 - Power outtage 9 - Design changes 10 - Reuse previous design work Medium Low 8 - Testing fails 3 - Attack on pipeline Very Low 4 - Key resource unavailable, 1 - Poor understanding and detail in specification Risks ID Title 4 Key resource unavailable Status Owner Open DP RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact.Crude Flow 07 Jan 2006 07 Jan 2006 $0 Cause Effect Due to other project commitments. Delay could occur on completion of key activities. Description Key resources may be unavailable.
Pre-mitigation Score 56 High Post-mitigation Score 1 Low Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation H 67% Post- mitigation VL 5% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation L Post-mitigation L Cost Pre-mitigation L Post-mitigation L Performance Pre-mitigation VH Post-mitigation L Mitigation Title: Change resource assignment policy Description Source additional specialists Responsibility DP Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $4,500,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 12 Dec 2005 Target Finish Date 12 Dec 2005 Description Overbook key resources Responsibility DP Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $3,250,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 03 Jan 2006 Target Finish Date 03 Jan 2006 Description Increase contract incentive Responsibility DP Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $800,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 07 Jan 2006 Target Finish Date 07 Jan 2006 Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A340 - Production Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333 Impacting Task: A330 - Main pipline to terminal Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333 Impacting Task: A260 - Production pumps Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333
Risk Plan: Post-mitigation Impacting Task: A340 - Production Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333 Impacting Task: A330 - Main pipline to terminal Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333 Impacting Task: A260 - Production pumps Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333
ID Title 10 Reuse previous design work Status Owner Open TS RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact.Gas separation 12 Oct 2005 12 Oct 2005 $0 Cause Effect Due to the similar nature of the design. Saving time and money during the initial design phase. Description It may be possible to use designs created for previous project. Pre-mitigation Score 36 High Post-mitigation Score 28 High Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation VH 87% Post- mitigation H 67% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation M Cost Pre-mitigation H Post-mitigation H Performance Pre-mitigation N Post-mitigation N Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A330 - Main pipline to terminal Schedule Triangle 60 75 90 Cost Triangle $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 Risk Plan: Post-mitigation Impacting Task: A330 - Main pipline to terminal Schedule Triangle 60 75 90 Cost Triangle $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000
ID Title 5 Power outtage Status Owner Open TR RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact 05 Jan 2006 05 Jan 2006 $0 Cause Effect Government power plant failure. Power dependent activities will be delayed. Description It may be necessary to find an alternative or supplemental power source. Pre-mitigation Score 28 High Post-mitigation Score 4 Low Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation H 67% Post- mitigation H 67% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation H Post-mitigation VL Cost Pre-mitigation H Post-mitigation N Performance Pre-mitigation VL Post-mitigation N Mitigation Title: Source alternative power supply Description Source suitable uninterruptible power generators Responsibility TR Status Planned Mitigated Cost $4,000,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID A420 Task Description Source suitable uninterruptible power generators Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 01 Nov 2005 Target Start Date 30 Dec 1899 Target Finish Date 30 Dec 1899 Description Expedite delivery Responsibility TR Status Planned Mitigated Cost $250,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID A410 Task Description Expedite delivery Start Date 02 Nov 2005 Finish Date 17 Nov 2005 Target Start Date 30 Dec 1899 Target Finish Date 30 Dec 1899 Description Vendor fees for travel and installation Responsibility TR Status Planned Mitigated Cost $60 Actual Cost $0 TaskID A400 Task Description Vendor installation Start Date 18 Nov 2005 Finish Date 24 Nov 2005 Target Start Date 30 Dec 1899 Target Finish Date 30 Dec 1899
Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A180 - FWKO Tank Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Impacting Task: A190 - Main water tank Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Impacting Task: A200 - Secondary water tank Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Impacting Task: A210 - Auxilary pumps Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Impacting Task: A220 - Water treatment facility Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Impacting Task: A260 - Production pumps Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Impacting Task: A250 - Production tanks Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Impacting Task: A350 - Field production facility tests Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Impacting Task: A360 - Level production tanks Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Impacting Task: A370 - Level PS1 tanks Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000
Risk Plan: Post-mitigation Impacting Task: A180 - FWKO Tank Schedule Triangle 0 1 3 Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0 Impacting Task: A190 - Main water tank Schedule Triangle 0 1 3 Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0 Impacting Task: A200 - Secondary water tank Schedule Triangle 0 1 3 Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0 Impacting Task: A210 - Auxilary pumps Schedule Triangle 0 1 3 Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0 Impacting Task: A220 - Water treatment facility Schedule Triangle 0 1 3 Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0 Impacting Task: A260 - Production pumps Schedule Triangle 0 1 3 Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0 Impacting Task: A250 - Production tanks Schedule Triangle 0 1 3 Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0 Impacting Task: A350 - Field production facility tests Schedule Triangle 0 1 3 Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0 Impacting Task: A360 - Level production tanks Schedule Triangle 0 1 3 Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0 Impacting Task: A370 - Level PS1 tanks Schedule Triangle 0 1 3
Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0
ID Title 3 Attack on pipeline Status Owner Open DP RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact.Production 15 Nov 2005 15 Nov 2005 $0 Cause Effect Due to lack of stability in the region local guerillas may attack the pipeline. Delay in bringing the field production facility online. Description Local guerilla groups have attacked other pipelines in the past. As a sort of ransome, they will repeatedly threaten to attack unless paid-off by the government or the foriegn contractors. Pre-mitigation Score 28 High Post-mitigation Score 12 Medium Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation H 67% Post- mitigation L 22% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation L Post-mitigation M Cost Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation L Performance Pre-mitigation H Post-mitigation H Mitigation Title: Source extra security with local government Description Use standard form of contract Responsibility DP Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $400,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 01 Nov 2005 Target Finish Date 01 Nov 2005 Description Pre contract negotiation Responsibility DP Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $100,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 15 Nov 2005 Target Finish Date 15 Nov 2005 Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A380 - Open pipeline to terminal Schedule Triangle 15 22 30
Cost Triangle $500,000 $625,000 $750,000 Impacting Task: A370 - Level PS1 tanks Schedule Triangle 15 22 30 Cost Triangle $500,000 $625,000 $750,000 Risk Plan: Post-mitigation Impacting Task: A380 - Open pipeline to terminal Schedule Triangle 30 37 45 Cost Triangle $250,000 $375,000 $500,000 Impacting Task: A370 - Level PS1 tanks Schedule Triangle 30 37 45 Cost Triangle $250,000 $375,000 $500,000
ID Title 1 Poor understanding and detail in specification Status Owner Open TS RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact.Crude Flow 01 Nov 2006 01 Nov 2006 $0 Cause Effect Due to poor understanding and detail in the initial specification. Could delay the project schedule and increase cost. Description The design is more complex than expected. Pre-mitigation Score 12 Medium Post-mitigation Score 1 Low Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation L 22% Post- mitigation VL 5% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation H Post-mitigation L Cost Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation L Performance Pre-mitigation VL Post-mitigation VL Mitigation Title: Introduce penalties for design changes Description Include penalties for any design changes Responsibility TS Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $10,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 01 Nov 2005 Target Finish Date 01 Nov 2005 Description Use supported design methodologies Responsibility TS Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $0 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 02 Jan 2006 Target Finish Date 02 Jan 2006 Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A270 - Pumpstation 1 Schedule Triangle 12 19 25
Cost Triangle $142,857 $178,571 $214,286 Impacting Task: A280 - Pumpstation 2 Schedule Triangle 12 19 25 Cost Triangle $142,857 $178,571 $214,286 Impacting Task: A290 - Pumpstation 3 Schedule Triangle 12 19 25 Cost Triangle $142,857 $178,571 $214,286 Impacting Task: A300 - Pumpstation 4 Schedule Triangle 12 19 25 Cost Triangle $142,857 $178,571 $214,286 Impacting Task: A310 - Pumpstation 5 Schedule Triangle 12 19 25 Cost Triangle $142,857 $178,571 $214,286 Impacting Task: A320 - Depressurizing station Schedule Triangle 12 19 25 Cost Triangle $142,857 $178,571 $214,286 Impacting Task: A250 - Production tanks Schedule Triangle 12 19 25 Cost Triangle $142,857 $178,571 $214,286 Risk Plan: Post-mitigation Impacting Task: A270 - Pumpstation 1 Schedule Triangle 4 6 8 Cost Triangle $71,429 $107,143 $142,857 Impacting Task: A280 - Pumpstation 2 Schedule Triangle 4 6 8 Cost Triangle $71,429 $107,143 $142,857 Impacting Task: A290 - Pumpstation 3 Schedule Triangle 4 6 8 Cost Triangle $71,429 $107,143 $142,857 Impacting Task: A300 - Pumpstation 4
Schedule Triangle 4 6 8 Cost Triangle $71,429 $107,143 $142,857 Impacting Task: A310 - Pumpstation 5 Schedule Triangle 4 6 8 Cost Triangle $71,429 $107,143 $142,857 Impacting Task: A320 - Depressurizing station Schedule Triangle 4 6 8 Cost Triangle $71,429 $107,143 $142,857 Impacting Task: A250 - Production tanks Schedule Triangle 4 6 8 Cost Triangle $71,429 $107,143 $142,857
ID Title 7 Rework required for assembly and integration Status Owner Open BJ RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact 01 Nov 2006 01 Nov 2006 $0 Cause Effect Due to incorrect tolerances in manufacturing. Which would delay the time taken to complete the assembly. Description The assembly may need to be reworked to allow a satisfactory integration of the components. Pre-mitigation Score 10 Medium Post-mitigation Score 0 Negligible Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation M 47% Post- mitigation N 0% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation M Cost Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation M Performance Pre-mitigation L Post-mitigation L Mitigation Title: Check manufacturing tolerances Description Check all manufacturing equipment can handle required tolerances Responsibility BJ Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $200,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 01 Nov 2005 Target Finish Date 01 Nov 2005 Description Communicate importance of tolerances to manufacturing Responsibility BJ Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $0 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 02 Jan 2006 Target Finish Date 02 Jan 2006 Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A140 - High pressure stack Schedule Triangle 15 18 22
Cost Triangle $250,000 $312,500 $375,000 Impacting Task: A150 - Low pressure stack Schedule Triangle 15 18 22 Cost Triangle $250,000 $312,500 $375,000 Impacting Task: A160 - Gas separator Schedule Triangle 15 18 22 Cost Triangle $250,000 $312,500 $375,000 Impacting Task: A180 - FWKO Tank Schedule Triangle 15 18 22 Cost Triangle $250,000 $312,500 $375,000 Risk Plan: Post-mitigation Impacting Task: A140 - High pressure stack Schedule Triangle 15 18 22 Cost Triangle $250,000 $312,500 $375,000 Impacting Task: A150 - Low pressure stack Schedule Triangle 15 18 22 Cost Triangle $250,000 $312,500 $375,000 Impacting Task: A160 - Gas separator Schedule Triangle 15 18 22 Cost Triangle $250,000 $312,500 $375,000 Impacting Task: A180 - FWKO Tank Schedule Triangle 15 18 22 Cost Triangle $250,000 $312,500 $375,000
ID Title 2 Auxilary pump system failure Status Owner Open RB RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact.Water Flow 02 Jan 2006 02 Jan 2006 $0 Cause Effect Due to the novel nature of the auxilary pump system. Auxilary pump system would need to be modified. Description There may be a major failure of auxilary pump system. Pre-mitigation Score 8 Medium Post-mitigation Score 0 Negligible Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation VL 5% Post- mitigation N 0% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation VH Post-mitigation VH Cost Pre-mitigation VH Post-mitigation VH Performance Pre-mitigation VH Post-mitigation VH Mitigation Title: Improve initial specification Description Spend more money on the initial specification Responsibility RB Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $250,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 10 Nov 2005 Target Finish Date 10 Nov 2005 Description Use off-the-shelf pump systems Responsibility RB Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $500,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 02 Jan 2006 Target Finish Date 02 Jan 2006 Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A210 - Auxilary pumps Schedule Triangle 90 135 180
Cost Triangle $1,250,000 $1,875,000 $2,500,000 Impacting Task: A220 - Water treatment facility Schedule Triangle 90 135 180 Cost Triangle $1,250,000 $1,875,000 $2,500,000 Risk Plan: Post-mitigation Impacting Task: A210 - Auxilary pumps Schedule Triangle 90 135 180 Cost Triangle $1,250,000 $1,875,000 $2,500,000 Impacting Task: A220 - Water treatment facility Schedule Triangle 90 135 180 Cost Triangle $1,250,000 $1,875,000 $2,500,000
ID Title 9 Design changes Status Owner Open LM RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact.Gas separation 12 Oct 2005 12 Oct 2005 $0 Cause Effect Due to client changing their mind. Which would delay the schedule. Description The design needs to be altered. Pre-mitigation Score 6 Low Post-mitigation Score 14 Medium Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation L 22% Post- mitigation H 67% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation M Cost Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation M Performance Pre-mitigation N Post-mitigation N Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A140 - High pressure stack Schedule Triangle 20 25 30 Cost Triangle $333,333 $416,667 $500,000 Impacting Task: A150 - Low pressure stack Schedule Triangle 20 25 30 Cost Triangle $333,333 $416,667 $500,000 Impacting Task: A160 - Gas separator Schedule Triangle 20 25 30 Cost Triangle $333,333 $416,667 $500,000
Risk Plan: Post-mitigation Impacting Task: A140 - High pressure stack Schedule Triangle 20 25 30 Cost Triangle $333,333 $416,667 $500,000 Impacting Task: A150 - Low pressure stack Schedule Triangle 20 25 30 Cost Triangle $333,333 $416,667 $500,000 Impacting Task: A160 - Gas separator Schedule Triangle 20 25 30 Cost Triangle $333,333 $416,667 $500,000
ID Title 8 Testing fails Status Owner Open LM RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact.Production 12 Oct 2005 12 Oct 2005 $0 Cause Effect Due to problems in design and fabrication. Rework would be required and retesting would need to take place. Description Testing fails to meet the clients performance criteria. Pre-mitigation Score 3 Low Post-mitigation Score 3 Low Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation L 22% Post- mitigation L 22% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation L Post-mitigation L Cost Pre-mitigation L Post-mitigation L Performance Pre-mitigation N Post-mitigation N Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A350 - Field production facility tests Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333 Impacting Task: A360 - Level production tanks Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333 Impacting Task: A370 - Level PS1 tanks Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333 Risk Plan: Post-mitigation
Impacting Task: A350 - Field production facility tests Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333 Impacting Task: A360 - Level production tanks Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333 Impacting Task: A370 - Level PS1 tanks Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333
ID Title 6 Fabrication contractor goes bust Status Owner Open TR RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact 12 Oct 2005 12 Oct 2005 $0 Cause Effect Due to poor business conditions in the current fabrication market. A new fabrication company would need to be sourced causing delay to the fabrication tasks. Description The fabrication contractor may go bust. Pre-mitigation Score 0 Negligible Post-mitigation Score 0 Negligible Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation N 0% Post- mitigation N 0% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation M Cost Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation M Performance Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation M Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A170 - Water Flow Schedule Triangle 30 37 45 Cost Triangle $500,000 $625,000 $750,000 Impacting Task: A240 - Crude Flow Schedule Triangle 30 37 45 Cost Triangle $500,000 $625,000 $750,000 Risk Plan: Post-mitigation Impacting Task: A170 - Water Flow Schedule Triangle 30 37 45 Cost Triangle $500,000 $625,000 $750,000
Impacting Task: A240 - Crude Flow Schedule Triangle 30 37 45 Cost Triangle $500,000 $625,000 $750,000
Risk Tornado Not Checked
13 Feb 06 28 Jun 07 09 Nov 08 Time 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 Cumulative Resource Flow for Cost Filter: Entire Plan Mean P0
Analysis Simulation: Latin Hypercu... Iterations: 1000 Correlation Pearson's 58.4% Spearman's 57.7% Highlighters x-axis 50% (28 Apr 0... y-axis 50% ($73,656... Inside both li... 36% Outside both l... 35% 1 % 3 % 17 Feb 09 28 May 09 Entire Plan: Finish 50% $73,654,000 $73,656,000 $73,658,000 $73,660,000 EntirePlan:Cost 50% DownstreamOG Deterministic Point Inside both limits Outside both limits
Data NPV of: Entire Plan Discount Rate: 0% Analysis Simulation: Latin Hypercube Iterations: 1000 Convergence at mean Mean Plan Finish Date: Converged in 0 iterations (variation < 1% over 100 iterations) Mean Total Plan Cost: Converged in 0 iterations (variation < 1% over 100 iterations) Statistics Minimum: $73,653,005 Maximum: $73,660,741 Mean: $73,656,672 Median: $73,656,639 Mode: $73,656,750 Max Hits: 153 Std Deviation: 1,319 Variance: 1,739,116 Skewness: 0.115 Kurtosis: 2.878 Bar Width: $500 Highlighters 20% $73,657,767 Deterministic 96% 50% $73,656,639 80% $73,655,501 $73,660,000 Distribution (start of interval) 0 50 100 150 Hits 0% $73,660,741 5% $73,658,881 10% $73,658,306 15% $73,658,044 20% $73,657,767 25% $73,657,572 30% $73,657,398 35% $73,657,166 40% $73,656,986 45% $73,656,818 50% $73,656,639 55% $73,656,497 60% $73,656,291 65% $73,656,151 70% $73,655,926 75% $73,655,752 80% $73,655,501 85% $73,655,336 90% $73,655,033 95% $73,654,514 100% $73,653,005 CumulativeFrequency DownstreamOG Entire Plan : NPV
Data Cost of: Entire Plan Analysis Simulation: Latin Hypercube Iterations: 1000 Convergence at mean Mean Plan Finish Date: Converged in 0 iterations (variation < 1% over 100 iterations) Mean Total Plan Cost: Converged in 0 iterations (variation < 1% over 100 iterations) Statistics Minimum: $73,653,005 Maximum: $73,660,741 Mean: $73,656,672 Median: $73,656,639 Mode: $73,656,750 Max Hits: 153 Std Deviation: 1,319 Variance: 1,739,116 Skewness: 0.115 Kurtosis: 2.878 Bar Width: $500 Highlighters 50% $73,656,639 20% $73,655,501 Deterministic 4% 50% $73,656,639 80% $73,657,767 $73,660,000 Distribution (start of interval) 0 50 100 150 Hits 0% $73,653,005 5% $73,654,502 10% $73,655,033 15% $73,655,334 20% $73,655,501 25% $73,655,752 30% $73,655,926 35% $73,656,151 40% $73,656,291 45% $73,656,497 50% $73,656,639 55% $73,656,818 60% $73,656,986 65% $73,657,166 70% $73,657,398 75% $73,657,572 80% $73,657,767 85% $73,658,044 90% $73,658,306 95% $73,658,881 100% $73,660,741 CumulativeFrequency DownstreamOG Entire Plan : Cost
Data Duration of: Entire Plan Analysis Simulation: Latin Hypercu... Iterations: 1000 Convergence at mean Mean Plan Finish Date: Converged in 0 iterations (variation < 1% over 100 iteratio... Mean Total Plan Cost: Converged in 0 iterations (variation < 1% over 100 iteratio... Statistics Minimum: 1217 Maximum: 1371 Mean: 1294 Median: 1295 Mode: 1299 Max Hits: 103 Std Deviation: 27.59 Variance: 761.5 Skewness: -0.051 Kurtosis: 2.599 Bar Width: week Highlighters Deterministic 5% 50% 1295 80% 1317 Distribution (start of interval) 0 50 100 Hits 0% 1217 5% 1248 10% 1259 15% 1263 20% 1269 25% 1274 30% 1277 35% 1282 40% 1288 45% 1290 50% 1295 55% 1298 60% 1302 65% 1305 70% 1310 75% 1315 80% 1317 85% 1324 90% 1330 95% 1338 100% 1371 CumulativeFrequency DownstreamOG Entire Plan : Duration
Data Finish Date of: Entire Plan Analysis Simulation: Latin Hypercube Iterations: 1000 Convergence at mean Mean Plan Finish Date: Converged in 0 iterations (variation < 1% over 100 iterations) Mean Total Plan Cost: Converged in 0 iterations (variation < 1% over 100 iterations) Statistics Minimum: 09 Feb 09 Maximum: 13 Jul 09 Mean: 27 Apr 09 Median: 28 Apr 09 Mode: 07 May 09 Max Hits: 97 Std Deviation: 27.59 Variance: 761.5 Skewness: -0.051 Kurtosis: 2.599 Bar Width: week Highlighters 20% 02 Apr 09 Deterministic 5% 50% 28 Apr 09 80% 20 May 09 17 Feb 09 Distribution (start of interval) 0 50 100 Hits 0% 09 Feb 09 5% 12 Mar 09 10% 23 Mar 09 15% 27 Mar 09 20% 02 Apr 09 25% 07 Apr 09 30% 10 Apr 09 35% 15 Apr 09 40% 21 Apr 09 45% 23 Apr 09 50% 28 Apr 09 55% 01 May 09 60% 05 May 09 65% 08 May 09 70% 13 May 09 75% 18 May 09 80% 20 May 09 85% 27 May 09 90% 02 Jun 09 95% 10 Jun 09 100% 13 Jul 09 CumulativeFrequency DownstreamOG Entire Plan : Finish Date

More Related Content

Summary Risk Report

  • 1. Summary Risk Report Plan Summary Title Copy of ExampleRegister-DownstreamOG.plan File name C:UsersburivoyYandexDiskRisksCopy of ExampleRegister-DownstreamOG.plan Plan finish date 11 Mar 09 Tasks with no progress 33 Plan remaining duration 1247 In progress tasks 0 Normal tasks 26 Completed tasks 0 Summary tasks 5 Total tasks 33 Milestone tasks 2 Resource assignments 44 Hammock tasks 0 Budget cost $67,975,229 Monitor tasks 0 Remaining cost $73,654,301 Calendars 4 Actual cost $0 Links 37 Total cost $73,654,301 Resources 10
  • 2. Risk Inputs Task ID: A120 Remaining Duration: 18 Task Description: Tap well-head Remaining Cost: $54 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 16 Most Likely 18 Maximum 20 Notes Task ID: A160 Remaining Duration: 42 Task Description: Gas separator Remaining Cost: $1,457,330 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 37 Most Likely 42 Maximum 46 Notes Task ID: A180 Remaining Duration: 105 Task Description: FWKO Tank Remaining Cost: $1,751,575 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 100 Most Likely 105 Maximum 137 Notes Task ID: A190 Remaining Duration: 85 Task Description: Main water tank Remaining Cost: $751,020 Duration Uncertainty
  • 3. Distribution Triangle Minimum 76 Most Likely 85 Maximum 94 Notes Task ID: A230 Remaining Duration: 50 Task Description: Cooling ponds Remaining Cost: $676,750 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 45 Most Likely 50 Maximum 55 Notes Task ID: A250 Remaining Duration: 140 Task Description: Production tanks Remaining Cost: $4,803,500 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 133 Most Likely 140 Maximum 182 Notes Task ID: A260 Remaining Duration: 145 Task Description: Production pumps Remaining Cost: $3,131,595 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 129 Most Likely 145 Maximum 160 Notes
  • 4. Task ID: A310 Remaining Duration: 142 Task Description: Pumpstation 5 Remaining Cost: $4,904,970 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 135 Most Likely 142 Maximum 185 Notes Task ID: A390 Remaining Duration: 0 Task Description: Project completion Remaining Cost: $0 Task ID: A100 Remaining Duration: 0 Task Description: Project Start Remaining Cost: $0 Task ID: A360 Remaining Duration: 26 Task Description: Level production tanks Remaining Cost: $260 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 23 Most Likely 26 Maximum 31 Notes Task ID: A110 Remaining Duration: 0 Task Description: Pre-production Remaining Cost: $4,250,114 Task ID: A140 Remaining Duration: 46 Task Description: High pressure stack Remaining Cost: $1,501,150 Duration Uncertainty
  • 5. Distribution Triangle Minimum 44 Most Likely 46 Maximum 60 Notes Task ID: A210 Remaining Duration: 80 Task Description: Auxilary pumps Remaining Cost: $2,002,000 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 71 Most Likely 80 Maximum 88 Notes Task ID: A220 Remaining Duration: 145 Task Description: Water treatment facility Remaining Cost: $2,502,610 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 138 Most Likely 145 Maximum 189 Notes Task ID: A200 Remaining Duration: 71 Task Description: Secondary water tank Remaining Cost: $346,585 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 67 Most Likely 71 Maximum 92 Notes
  • 6. Task ID: A150 Remaining Duration: 57 Task Description: Low pressure stack Remaining Cost: $1,150,855 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 51 Most Likely 57 Maximum 68 Notes Task ID: A320 Remaining Duration: 131 Task Description: Depressurizing station Remaining Cost: $6,001,310 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 118 Most Likely 131 Maximum 157 Notes Task ID: A330 Remaining Duration: 136 Task Description: Main pipline to terminal Remaining Cost: $17,013,600 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 121 Most Likely 136 Maximum 150 Notes Task ID: A350 Remaining Duration: 30 Task Description: Field production facility tests Remaining Cost: $450 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 27 Most Likely 30 Notes
  • 7. Maximum 36 Task ID: A380 Remaining Duration: 9 Task Description: Open pipeline to terminal Remaining Cost: $675 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 8 Most Likely 9 Maximum 10 Notes Task ID: A370 Remaining Duration: 19 Task Description: Level PS1 tanks Remaining Cost: $152 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 17 Most Likely 19 Maximum 21 Notes Task ID: A130 Remaining Duration: 0 Task Description: Construct Field Production Facility Remaining Cost: $4,109,335 Task ID: A170 Remaining Duration: 0 Task Description: Water Flow Remaining Cost: $8,030,540 Task ID: A240 Remaining Duration: 0 Task Description: Crude Flow Remaining Cost: $57,262,775 Task ID: A340 Remaining Duration: 0
  • 8. Task Description: Production Remaining Cost: $1,537 Task ID: A300 Remaining Duration: 202 Task Description: Pumpstation 4 Remaining Cost: $6,009,090 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 180 Most Likely 202 Maximum 222 Notes Task ID: A290 Remaining Duration: 201 Task Description: Pumpstation 3 Remaining Cost: $5,258,040 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 181 Most Likely 201 Maximum 241 Notes Task ID: A280 Remaining Duration: 197 Task Description: Pumpstation 2 Remaining Cost: $5,131,895 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 187 Most Likely 197 Maximum 256 Notes Task ID: A270 Remaining Duration: 195 Task Description: Pumpstation 1 Remaining Cost: $5,008,775 Duration Uncertainty
  • 9. Distribution Triangle Minimum 176 Most Likely 195 Maximum 234 Notes Task ID: A400 Remaining Duration: 5 Task Description: Vendor installation Remaining Cost: $60 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 4 Most Likely 5 Maximum 6 Notes Task ID: A410 Remaining Duration: 12 Task Description: Expedite delivery Remaining Cost: $250,000 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 11 Most Likely 12 Maximum 13 Notes Task ID: A420 Remaining Duration: 15 Task Description: Source suitable uninterruptible power generators Remaining Cost: $4,000,000 Duration Uncertainty Distribution Triangle Minimum 14 Most Likely 15 Maximum 18 Notes
  • 10. Templated Quick Risk Field Value Tasks Distribution Min Likely Max Correlation Description Uncertainty = L 12 Triangle 89% 100% 110% none Uncertainty = M 7 Triangle 90% 100% 120% none Uncertainty = H 7 Triangle 95% 100% 130% none Probabilistic Calendars Calendar: WeatherDelay From To Apply to Block size (days) Non working probability 31/Oct/05 01/Oct/05 Every year 7 15% 30/Nov/05 01/Nov/05 Every year 7 15% 31/Dec/05 01/Dec/05 Every year 7 20% 31/Jan/06 01/Jan/06 Every year 7 30% 28/Feb/06 01/Feb/06 Every year 7 30% 31/Mar/06 01/Mar/06 Every year 7 25% 30/Apr/06 01/Apr/06 Every year 7 15% 31/May/06 01/May/06 Every year 7 10% 30/Jun/06 01/Jun/06 Every year 7 5% 31/Jul/06 01/Jul/06 Every year 7 5% 31/Aug/06 01/Aug/06 Every year 7 10% 30/Sep/06 01/Sep/06 Every year 7 10% Resources No Data
  • 11. Risk Outputs Project Finish Distribution Graph Title Value Minimum 09 Feb 09 Maximum 13 Jul 09 Mean 27 Apr 09 Median 28 Apr 09 Mode 07 May 09 Max Hits 97 Std Deviation 27.59 Variance 761.5 Skewness -0.051
  • 13. Project Cost Distribution Graph Title Value Minimum $73,653,005 Maximum $73,660,741 Mean $73,656,672 Median $73,656,639 Mode $73,656,750 Max Hits 153 Std Deviation 1,319 Variance 1,739,116 Skewness 0.115 Kurtosis 2.878 Bar Width: $500
  • 14. Project NPV Distribution Graph Not Checked Project IRR Distribution Graph Not Checked Project Duration Sensitivity Tornado Graph The duration sensitivity of a task is a measure of the correlation between its duration and the duration (or dates) of the project (or a key task or summary).
  • 15. Project Cost Sensitivity Tornado Graph The cost sensitivity of a task is a measure of the correlation between its cost and the cost of the project (or a key task or summary).
  • 16. Project SSI Tornado Graph The schedule sensitivity index of a task is calculated by multiplying its criticality index by the ratio of its variance against the variance of the project (or key task).
  • 17. Project Criticality Tornado Graph The criticality index of a task is the proportion of the iterations in which it was critical.
  • 18. Project Cruciality Tornado Graph The cruciality of a task is calculated by multiplying its duration sensitivity by its criticality index.
  • 19. Risk Register Risk Register Summary Total Risks 10 Proposed Risks 0 Open Risks 10 High 4 Medium 3 Low 2 Negligible 1 Impacted (Closed) Risks 0 Managed (Closed) Risks 0 Rejected (Closed) Risks 0 Threats 9 Opportunities 1 Risk Scoring Probability Scale Very Low Low Medium High Very High Up to 10% 10% to 35% 35% to 60% 60% to 75% 75% or higher Impact Scales and Types Very Low Low Medium High Very High Schedule* Up to 30 30 to 60 60 to 90 90 to 180 180 or higher Cost* Up to $500,000 $500,000 to $1,000,000 $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 $1,500,000 to $2,500,000 $2,500,000 or higher Performance* Failure to meet a minor acceptance criteria Failure to meet more than one minor acceptance criteria Shortfall in meeting acceptance criteria Significant shortfall in meeting acceptance criteria Failure to meet acceptance criteria * means impact is used in scoring Probability and Impact Scoring (PID) Risk Score is based on: Highest Impact Impact
  • 20. Very Low Low Medium High Very High Very High 5 9 18 36 72 High 4 7 14 28 56 Medium 3 5 10 20 40 Low 2 3 6 12 24 Very Low 1 1 2 4 8 Key Up to 7 7 to 23 23 or higher Risk Matrix Pre-Mitigation Very Low Low Medium High Very High Very High 10 - Reuse previous design work High 5 - Power outtage, 3 - Attack on pipeline 4 - Key resource unavailable Medium 7 - Rework required for assembly and integration Low 8 - Testing fails 9 - Design changes 1 - Poor understanding and detail in specification Very Low 2 - Auxilary pump system failure
  • 21. Post-Mitigation Very Low Low Medium High Very High Very High High 5 - Power outtage 9 - Design changes 10 - Reuse previous design work Medium Low 8 - Testing fails 3 - Attack on pipeline Very Low 4 - Key resource unavailable, 1 - Poor understanding and detail in specification Risks ID Title 4 Key resource unavailable Status Owner Open DP RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact.Crude Flow 07 Jan 2006 07 Jan 2006 $0 Cause Effect Due to other project commitments. Delay could occur on completion of key activities. Description Key resources may be unavailable.
  • 22. Pre-mitigation Score 56 High Post-mitigation Score 1 Low Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation H 67% Post- mitigation VL 5% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation L Post-mitigation L Cost Pre-mitigation L Post-mitigation L Performance Pre-mitigation VH Post-mitigation L Mitigation Title: Change resource assignment policy Description Source additional specialists Responsibility DP Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $4,500,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 12 Dec 2005 Target Finish Date 12 Dec 2005 Description Overbook key resources Responsibility DP Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $3,250,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 03 Jan 2006 Target Finish Date 03 Jan 2006 Description Increase contract incentive Responsibility DP Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $800,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 07 Jan 2006 Target Finish Date 07 Jan 2006 Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A340 - Production Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333 Impacting Task: A330 - Main pipline to terminal Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333 Impacting Task: A260 - Production pumps Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333
  • 23. Risk Plan: Post-mitigation Impacting Task: A340 - Production Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333 Impacting Task: A330 - Main pipline to terminal Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333 Impacting Task: A260 - Production pumps Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333
  • 24. ID Title 10 Reuse previous design work Status Owner Open TS RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact.Gas separation 12 Oct 2005 12 Oct 2005 $0 Cause Effect Due to the similar nature of the design. Saving time and money during the initial design phase. Description It may be possible to use designs created for previous project. Pre-mitigation Score 36 High Post-mitigation Score 28 High Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation VH 87% Post- mitigation H 67% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation M Cost Pre-mitigation H Post-mitigation H Performance Pre-mitigation N Post-mitigation N Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A330 - Main pipline to terminal Schedule Triangle 60 75 90 Cost Triangle $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 Risk Plan: Post-mitigation Impacting Task: A330 - Main pipline to terminal Schedule Triangle 60 75 90 Cost Triangle $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000
  • 25. ID Title 5 Power outtage Status Owner Open TR RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact 05 Jan 2006 05 Jan 2006 $0 Cause Effect Government power plant failure. Power dependent activities will be delayed. Description It may be necessary to find an alternative or supplemental power source. Pre-mitigation Score 28 High Post-mitigation Score 4 Low Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation H 67% Post- mitigation H 67% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation H Post-mitigation VL Cost Pre-mitigation H Post-mitigation N Performance Pre-mitigation VL Post-mitigation N Mitigation Title: Source alternative power supply Description Source suitable uninterruptible power generators Responsibility TR Status Planned Mitigated Cost $4,000,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID A420 Task Description Source suitable uninterruptible power generators Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 01 Nov 2005 Target Start Date 30 Dec 1899 Target Finish Date 30 Dec 1899 Description Expedite delivery Responsibility TR Status Planned Mitigated Cost $250,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID A410 Task Description Expedite delivery Start Date 02 Nov 2005 Finish Date 17 Nov 2005 Target Start Date 30 Dec 1899 Target Finish Date 30 Dec 1899 Description Vendor fees for travel and installation Responsibility TR Status Planned Mitigated Cost $60 Actual Cost $0 TaskID A400 Task Description Vendor installation Start Date 18 Nov 2005 Finish Date 24 Nov 2005 Target Start Date 30 Dec 1899 Target Finish Date 30 Dec 1899
  • 26. Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A180 - FWKO Tank Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Impacting Task: A190 - Main water tank Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Impacting Task: A200 - Secondary water tank Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Impacting Task: A210 - Auxilary pumps Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Impacting Task: A220 - Water treatment facility Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Impacting Task: A260 - Production pumps Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Impacting Task: A250 - Production tanks Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Impacting Task: A350 - Field production facility tests Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Impacting Task: A360 - Level production tanks Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Impacting Task: A370 - Level PS1 tanks Schedule Triangle 9 13 18 Cost Triangle $150,000 $200,000 $250,000
  • 27. Risk Plan: Post-mitigation Impacting Task: A180 - FWKO Tank Schedule Triangle 0 1 3 Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0 Impacting Task: A190 - Main water tank Schedule Triangle 0 1 3 Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0 Impacting Task: A200 - Secondary water tank Schedule Triangle 0 1 3 Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0 Impacting Task: A210 - Auxilary pumps Schedule Triangle 0 1 3 Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0 Impacting Task: A220 - Water treatment facility Schedule Triangle 0 1 3 Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0 Impacting Task: A260 - Production pumps Schedule Triangle 0 1 3 Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0 Impacting Task: A250 - Production tanks Schedule Triangle 0 1 3 Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0 Impacting Task: A350 - Field production facility tests Schedule Triangle 0 1 3 Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0 Impacting Task: A360 - Level production tanks Schedule Triangle 0 1 3 Cost Triangle $0 $0 $0 Impacting Task: A370 - Level PS1 tanks Schedule Triangle 0 1 3
  • 29. ID Title 3 Attack on pipeline Status Owner Open DP RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact.Production 15 Nov 2005 15 Nov 2005 $0 Cause Effect Due to lack of stability in the region local guerillas may attack the pipeline. Delay in bringing the field production facility online. Description Local guerilla groups have attacked other pipelines in the past. As a sort of ransome, they will repeatedly threaten to attack unless paid-off by the government or the foriegn contractors. Pre-mitigation Score 28 High Post-mitigation Score 12 Medium Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation H 67% Post- mitigation L 22% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation L Post-mitigation M Cost Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation L Performance Pre-mitigation H Post-mitigation H Mitigation Title: Source extra security with local government Description Use standard form of contract Responsibility DP Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $400,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 01 Nov 2005 Target Finish Date 01 Nov 2005 Description Pre contract negotiation Responsibility DP Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $100,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 15 Nov 2005 Target Finish Date 15 Nov 2005 Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A380 - Open pipeline to terminal Schedule Triangle 15 22 30
  • 30. Cost Triangle $500,000 $625,000 $750,000 Impacting Task: A370 - Level PS1 tanks Schedule Triangle 15 22 30 Cost Triangle $500,000 $625,000 $750,000 Risk Plan: Post-mitigation Impacting Task: A380 - Open pipeline to terminal Schedule Triangle 30 37 45 Cost Triangle $250,000 $375,000 $500,000 Impacting Task: A370 - Level PS1 tanks Schedule Triangle 30 37 45 Cost Triangle $250,000 $375,000 $500,000
  • 31. ID Title 1 Poor understanding and detail in specification Status Owner Open TS RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact.Crude Flow 01 Nov 2006 01 Nov 2006 $0 Cause Effect Due to poor understanding and detail in the initial specification. Could delay the project schedule and increase cost. Description The design is more complex than expected. Pre-mitigation Score 12 Medium Post-mitigation Score 1 Low Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation L 22% Post- mitigation VL 5% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation H Post-mitigation L Cost Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation L Performance Pre-mitigation VL Post-mitigation VL Mitigation Title: Introduce penalties for design changes Description Include penalties for any design changes Responsibility TS Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $10,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 01 Nov 2005 Target Finish Date 01 Nov 2005 Description Use supported design methodologies Responsibility TS Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $0 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 02 Jan 2006 Target Finish Date 02 Jan 2006 Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A270 - Pumpstation 1 Schedule Triangle 12 19 25
  • 32. Cost Triangle $142,857 $178,571 $214,286 Impacting Task: A280 - Pumpstation 2 Schedule Triangle 12 19 25 Cost Triangle $142,857 $178,571 $214,286 Impacting Task: A290 - Pumpstation 3 Schedule Triangle 12 19 25 Cost Triangle $142,857 $178,571 $214,286 Impacting Task: A300 - Pumpstation 4 Schedule Triangle 12 19 25 Cost Triangle $142,857 $178,571 $214,286 Impacting Task: A310 - Pumpstation 5 Schedule Triangle 12 19 25 Cost Triangle $142,857 $178,571 $214,286 Impacting Task: A320 - Depressurizing station Schedule Triangle 12 19 25 Cost Triangle $142,857 $178,571 $214,286 Impacting Task: A250 - Production tanks Schedule Triangle 12 19 25 Cost Triangle $142,857 $178,571 $214,286 Risk Plan: Post-mitigation Impacting Task: A270 - Pumpstation 1 Schedule Triangle 4 6 8 Cost Triangle $71,429 $107,143 $142,857 Impacting Task: A280 - Pumpstation 2 Schedule Triangle 4 6 8 Cost Triangle $71,429 $107,143 $142,857 Impacting Task: A290 - Pumpstation 3 Schedule Triangle 4 6 8 Cost Triangle $71,429 $107,143 $142,857 Impacting Task: A300 - Pumpstation 4
  • 33. Schedule Triangle 4 6 8 Cost Triangle $71,429 $107,143 $142,857 Impacting Task: A310 - Pumpstation 5 Schedule Triangle 4 6 8 Cost Triangle $71,429 $107,143 $142,857 Impacting Task: A320 - Depressurizing station Schedule Triangle 4 6 8 Cost Triangle $71,429 $107,143 $142,857 Impacting Task: A250 - Production tanks Schedule Triangle 4 6 8 Cost Triangle $71,429 $107,143 $142,857
  • 34. ID Title 7 Rework required for assembly and integration Status Owner Open BJ RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact 01 Nov 2006 01 Nov 2006 $0 Cause Effect Due to incorrect tolerances in manufacturing. Which would delay the time taken to complete the assembly. Description The assembly may need to be reworked to allow a satisfactory integration of the components. Pre-mitigation Score 10 Medium Post-mitigation Score 0 Negligible Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation M 47% Post- mitigation N 0% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation M Cost Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation M Performance Pre-mitigation L Post-mitigation L Mitigation Title: Check manufacturing tolerances Description Check all manufacturing equipment can handle required tolerances Responsibility BJ Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $200,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 01 Nov 2005 Target Finish Date 01 Nov 2005 Description Communicate importance of tolerances to manufacturing Responsibility BJ Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $0 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 02 Jan 2006 Target Finish Date 02 Jan 2006 Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A140 - High pressure stack Schedule Triangle 15 18 22
  • 35. Cost Triangle $250,000 $312,500 $375,000 Impacting Task: A150 - Low pressure stack Schedule Triangle 15 18 22 Cost Triangle $250,000 $312,500 $375,000 Impacting Task: A160 - Gas separator Schedule Triangle 15 18 22 Cost Triangle $250,000 $312,500 $375,000 Impacting Task: A180 - FWKO Tank Schedule Triangle 15 18 22 Cost Triangle $250,000 $312,500 $375,000 Risk Plan: Post-mitigation Impacting Task: A140 - High pressure stack Schedule Triangle 15 18 22 Cost Triangle $250,000 $312,500 $375,000 Impacting Task: A150 - Low pressure stack Schedule Triangle 15 18 22 Cost Triangle $250,000 $312,500 $375,000 Impacting Task: A160 - Gas separator Schedule Triangle 15 18 22 Cost Triangle $250,000 $312,500 $375,000 Impacting Task: A180 - FWKO Tank Schedule Triangle 15 18 22 Cost Triangle $250,000 $312,500 $375,000
  • 36. ID Title 2 Auxilary pump system failure Status Owner Open RB RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact.Water Flow 02 Jan 2006 02 Jan 2006 $0 Cause Effect Due to the novel nature of the auxilary pump system. Auxilary pump system would need to be modified. Description There may be a major failure of auxilary pump system. Pre-mitigation Score 8 Medium Post-mitigation Score 0 Negligible Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation VL 5% Post- mitigation N 0% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation VH Post-mitigation VH Cost Pre-mitigation VH Post-mitigation VH Performance Pre-mitigation VH Post-mitigation VH Mitigation Title: Improve initial specification Description Spend more money on the initial specification Responsibility RB Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $250,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 10 Nov 2005 Target Finish Date 10 Nov 2005 Description Use off-the-shelf pump systems Responsibility RB Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $500,000 Actual Cost $0 TaskID Task Description undefined Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 02 Jan 2006 Target Finish Date 02 Jan 2006 Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A210 - Auxilary pumps Schedule Triangle 90 135 180
  • 37. Cost Triangle $1,250,000 $1,875,000 $2,500,000 Impacting Task: A220 - Water treatment facility Schedule Triangle 90 135 180 Cost Triangle $1,250,000 $1,875,000 $2,500,000 Risk Plan: Post-mitigation Impacting Task: A210 - Auxilary pumps Schedule Triangle 90 135 180 Cost Triangle $1,250,000 $1,875,000 $2,500,000 Impacting Task: A220 - Water treatment facility Schedule Triangle 90 135 180 Cost Triangle $1,250,000 $1,875,000 $2,500,000
  • 38. ID Title 9 Design changes Status Owner Open LM RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact.Gas separation 12 Oct 2005 12 Oct 2005 $0 Cause Effect Due to client changing their mind. Which would delay the schedule. Description The design needs to be altered. Pre-mitigation Score 6 Low Post-mitigation Score 14 Medium Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation L 22% Post- mitigation H 67% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation M Cost Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation M Performance Pre-mitigation N Post-mitigation N Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A140 - High pressure stack Schedule Triangle 20 25 30 Cost Triangle $333,333 $416,667 $500,000 Impacting Task: A150 - Low pressure stack Schedule Triangle 20 25 30 Cost Triangle $333,333 $416,667 $500,000 Impacting Task: A160 - Gas separator Schedule Triangle 20 25 30 Cost Triangle $333,333 $416,667 $500,000
  • 39. Risk Plan: Post-mitigation Impacting Task: A140 - High pressure stack Schedule Triangle 20 25 30 Cost Triangle $333,333 $416,667 $500,000 Impacting Task: A150 - Low pressure stack Schedule Triangle 20 25 30 Cost Triangle $333,333 $416,667 $500,000 Impacting Task: A160 - Gas separator Schedule Triangle 20 25 30 Cost Triangle $333,333 $416,667 $500,000
  • 40. ID Title 8 Testing fails Status Owner Open LM RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact.Production 12 Oct 2005 12 Oct 2005 $0 Cause Effect Due to problems in design and fabrication. Rework would be required and retesting would need to take place. Description Testing fails to meet the clients performance criteria. Pre-mitigation Score 3 Low Post-mitigation Score 3 Low Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation L 22% Post- mitigation L 22% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation L Post-mitigation L Cost Pre-mitigation L Post-mitigation L Performance Pre-mitigation N Post-mitigation N Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A350 - Field production facility tests Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333 Impacting Task: A360 - Level production tanks Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333 Impacting Task: A370 - Level PS1 tanks Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333 Risk Plan: Post-mitigation
  • 41. Impacting Task: A350 - Field production facility tests Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333 Impacting Task: A360 - Level production tanks Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333 Impacting Task: A370 - Level PS1 tanks Schedule Triangle 10 15 20 Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333
  • 42. ID Title 6 Fabrication contractor goes bust Status Owner Open TR RBS Start Date End Date Exposure Project Level Impact 12 Oct 2005 12 Oct 2005 $0 Cause Effect Due to poor business conditions in the current fabrication market. A new fabrication company would need to be sourced causing delay to the fabrication tasks. Description The fabrication contractor may go bust. Pre-mitigation Score 0 Negligible Post-mitigation Score 0 Negligible Qualitative Quantitative Pre- mitigation N 0% Post- mitigation N 0% Qualitative Schedule Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation M Cost Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation M Performance Pre-mitigation M Post-mitigation M Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation Impacting Task: A170 - Water Flow Schedule Triangle 30 37 45 Cost Triangle $500,000 $625,000 $750,000 Impacting Task: A240 - Crude Flow Schedule Triangle 30 37 45 Cost Triangle $500,000 $625,000 $750,000 Risk Plan: Post-mitigation Impacting Task: A170 - Water Flow Schedule Triangle 30 37 45 Cost Triangle $500,000 $625,000 $750,000
  • 43. Impacting Task: A240 - Crude Flow Schedule Triangle 30 37 45 Cost Triangle $500,000 $625,000 $750,000
  • 45. 13 Feb 06 28 Jun 07 09 Nov 08 Time 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 Cumulative Resource Flow for Cost Filter: Entire Plan Mean P0
  • 46. Analysis Simulation: Latin Hypercu... Iterations: 1000 Correlation Pearson's 58.4% Spearman's 57.7% Highlighters x-axis 50% (28 Apr 0... y-axis 50% ($73,656... Inside both li... 36% Outside both l... 35% 1 % 3 % 17 Feb 09 28 May 09 Entire Plan: Finish 50% $73,654,000 $73,656,000 $73,658,000 $73,660,000 EntirePlan:Cost 50% DownstreamOG Deterministic Point Inside both limits Outside both limits
  • 47. Data NPV of: Entire Plan Discount Rate: 0% Analysis Simulation: Latin Hypercube Iterations: 1000 Convergence at mean Mean Plan Finish Date: Converged in 0 iterations (variation < 1% over 100 iterations) Mean Total Plan Cost: Converged in 0 iterations (variation < 1% over 100 iterations) Statistics Minimum: $73,653,005 Maximum: $73,660,741 Mean: $73,656,672 Median: $73,656,639 Mode: $73,656,750 Max Hits: 153 Std Deviation: 1,319 Variance: 1,739,116 Skewness: 0.115 Kurtosis: 2.878 Bar Width: $500 Highlighters 20% $73,657,767 Deterministic 96% 50% $73,656,639 80% $73,655,501 $73,660,000 Distribution (start of interval) 0 50 100 150 Hits 0% $73,660,741 5% $73,658,881 10% $73,658,306 15% $73,658,044 20% $73,657,767 25% $73,657,572 30% $73,657,398 35% $73,657,166 40% $73,656,986 45% $73,656,818 50% $73,656,639 55% $73,656,497 60% $73,656,291 65% $73,656,151 70% $73,655,926 75% $73,655,752 80% $73,655,501 85% $73,655,336 90% $73,655,033 95% $73,654,514 100% $73,653,005 CumulativeFrequency DownstreamOG Entire Plan : NPV
  • 48. Data Cost of: Entire Plan Analysis Simulation: Latin Hypercube Iterations: 1000 Convergence at mean Mean Plan Finish Date: Converged in 0 iterations (variation < 1% over 100 iterations) Mean Total Plan Cost: Converged in 0 iterations (variation < 1% over 100 iterations) Statistics Minimum: $73,653,005 Maximum: $73,660,741 Mean: $73,656,672 Median: $73,656,639 Mode: $73,656,750 Max Hits: 153 Std Deviation: 1,319 Variance: 1,739,116 Skewness: 0.115 Kurtosis: 2.878 Bar Width: $500 Highlighters 50% $73,656,639 20% $73,655,501 Deterministic 4% 50% $73,656,639 80% $73,657,767 $73,660,000 Distribution (start of interval) 0 50 100 150 Hits 0% $73,653,005 5% $73,654,502 10% $73,655,033 15% $73,655,334 20% $73,655,501 25% $73,655,752 30% $73,655,926 35% $73,656,151 40% $73,656,291 45% $73,656,497 50% $73,656,639 55% $73,656,818 60% $73,656,986 65% $73,657,166 70% $73,657,398 75% $73,657,572 80% $73,657,767 85% $73,658,044 90% $73,658,306 95% $73,658,881 100% $73,660,741 CumulativeFrequency DownstreamOG Entire Plan : Cost
  • 49. Data Duration of: Entire Plan Analysis Simulation: Latin Hypercu... Iterations: 1000 Convergence at mean Mean Plan Finish Date: Converged in 0 iterations (variation < 1% over 100 iteratio... Mean Total Plan Cost: Converged in 0 iterations (variation < 1% over 100 iteratio... Statistics Minimum: 1217 Maximum: 1371 Mean: 1294 Median: 1295 Mode: 1299 Max Hits: 103 Std Deviation: 27.59 Variance: 761.5 Skewness: -0.051 Kurtosis: 2.599 Bar Width: week Highlighters Deterministic 5% 50% 1295 80% 1317 Distribution (start of interval) 0 50 100 Hits 0% 1217 5% 1248 10% 1259 15% 1263 20% 1269 25% 1274 30% 1277 35% 1282 40% 1288 45% 1290 50% 1295 55% 1298 60% 1302 65% 1305 70% 1310 75% 1315 80% 1317 85% 1324 90% 1330 95% 1338 100% 1371 CumulativeFrequency DownstreamOG Entire Plan : Duration
  • 50. Data Finish Date of: Entire Plan Analysis Simulation: Latin Hypercube Iterations: 1000 Convergence at mean Mean Plan Finish Date: Converged in 0 iterations (variation < 1% over 100 iterations) Mean Total Plan Cost: Converged in 0 iterations (variation < 1% over 100 iterations) Statistics Minimum: 09 Feb 09 Maximum: 13 Jul 09 Mean: 27 Apr 09 Median: 28 Apr 09 Mode: 07 May 09 Max Hits: 97 Std Deviation: 27.59 Variance: 761.5 Skewness: -0.051 Kurtosis: 2.599 Bar Width: week Highlighters 20% 02 Apr 09 Deterministic 5% 50% 28 Apr 09 80% 20 May 09 17 Feb 09 Distribution (start of interval) 0 50 100 Hits 0% 09 Feb 09 5% 12 Mar 09 10% 23 Mar 09 15% 27 Mar 09 20% 02 Apr 09 25% 07 Apr 09 30% 10 Apr 09 35% 15 Apr 09 40% 21 Apr 09 45% 23 Apr 09 50% 28 Apr 09 55% 01 May 09 60% 05 May 09 65% 08 May 09 70% 13 May 09 75% 18 May 09 80% 20 May 09 85% 27 May 09 90% 02 Jun 09 95% 10 Jun 09 100% 13 Jul 09 CumulativeFrequency DownstreamOG Entire Plan : Finish Date