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Supporting municipalities with modeled based policy support - When to provide which kind of information?

IEA-ETSAP
IEA-ETSAP

Supporting municipalities with modeled based policy support - When to provide which kind of information? Dr. Anna Krook-Riekkola, Lule奪 University of Technology, Sweden 21st25th October 2024, etsap meeting, semi-annual etsap meeting, etsap winter workshop, Energy Studies Institute (ESI), Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR), Singapore

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Supporting municipalities with modeled based policy support When to provide which kind of information/interactions? ETSAP Workshop, October 25 2024, Singapore Anna Krook-Riekkola, Associated Professor (TIMES) Jonas Forsberg, Postdoc (TIMES) Carina Lundmark, Associate Professor (Political Science)
L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T A climate policy framework & a climate and clean air strategy for Sweden entered into force Jan 2018 1. A long-term climate goal: By 2045 - at the latest Sweden will have no net emissions of greenhouse gases. Net-zero means 15% of reduction can be offset by: i)LULUCF, ii)abroad, iii)BECCS 2. Intermediate targets only for emissions outside the EU Emissions Trading System (called the non- trading sector/NETS), special focus on transports. 2020 NETS: 40% reduction from 1990 2030 NETS: 63% reduction from 1990 2040 NETS: 75% reduction from 1990 2030 international transport: 70% reduction from 1990. 3. A clean air strategy with a focus on reducing air pollutants (NOX, SO2, VOC, NH4 and particles) and thereby improved air quality. K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Industry Transport Residential and services Final Energy Demand in 2020 (TWh) Electricity District heating Other fuels Natural gas, gasworks gas Oil products Coal and coke Biomass -40 10 60 110 160 TWh Net electricity production, from 1970, TWh Other thermal power CHP (district heating) CHP (industry) Nuclear power Solar power Wind power Hydropower Net Import
L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T A climate policy framework & a climate and clean air strategy for Sweden entered into force Jan 2018 1. A long-term climate goal: By 2045 - at the latest Sweden will have no net emissions of greenhouse gases. Net-zero means 15% of reduction can be offset by: i)LULUCF, ii)abroad, iii)BECCS 2. Intermediate targets only for emissions outside the EU Emissions Trading System (called the non- trading sector/NETS), special focus on transports. 2020 NETS: 40% reduction from 1990 2030 NETS: 63% reduction from 1990 2040 NETS: 75% reduction from 1990 2030 international transport: 70% reduction from 1990. 3. A clean air strategy with a focus on reducing air pollutants (NOX, SO2, VOC, NH4 and particles) and thereby improved air quality. K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 3 MUNICIPALITIES Transportation Target: 70% reduction by 2030 from 1990. Net-zero by 2045
L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T Sweden V辰sterbotten county 15 municipalities K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 4 Inhabitants: A1-2: 193 000 B1-6: 33 000 C1-7: 25 000 Tot: 251 000
L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T What did we plan to do? 5 K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k
L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T What we aimed at: A process driven by the municipalities K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 6 STEP 4: Workshop on actions needed Model based Scenario analysis STEP 2: Workshop on future societal needs that require energy Model development STEP 1: Understanding the local context STEP 3: Workshop interpreting the model result on the local context Future visions Scenario analysis Model development
L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T What are the implication of the policy, i.e. how much CO2 are reduced to what cost future system Step 1 Simplify & Conceptualize Step 3 Interpret & conclude Present System Theory Reality 7 Step 4 Actions Model Results Model Results Model Results Model Results Model Results Available data System requirements Conceptualized description of the real system Anna Krook-Riekkola Scenario analysis Step 2 Computable model K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k
L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T What did we do? 8 K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k
L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 9 From: Forsberg, Lundmark & Krook-Riekkola (202?) Exploring local CO2 mitigation strategies in transportation under ambitious national policies A participatory energy system modelling approach. Under review What we did Process
L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T What we did Scenarios F o r s b e r g , L u n d m a r k & K r o o k - R i e k k o l a 10 Type Scenario Comment Baseline WPS Weak Policy Scenario. No specific CO2 mitigation policies. Single policy scenarios Av Avoid strategy. MS Mode shift strategy. Premium Purchase premium awarded to new low-emission light-duty vehicles (improve strategy). BEVs receive the highest premium. Q2030 Reduction obligation policy (improve strategy); quotas progressing up until 2030 but unchanged thereafter. Q2045 Reduction obligation policy (improve strategy); quotas progressing up until 2045. Combined policy scenarios NPS National Policy Scenario. Combines the purchase premium and reduction obligation (Q2045 case) policies. NPS + MS + Av National Policy Scenario with the addition of local shift and avoid mitigation strategies. NPS + MS + Av + EFS National Policy Scenario with the addition of local shift and avoid mitigation strategies, and quicker cost reduction for new BEVs and a biofuel availability limitation (EFS). From: Forsberg, Lundmark & Krook-Riekkola (202?) Exploring local CO2 mitigation strategies in transportation under ambitious national policies A participatory energy system modelling approach. Under review Avoid Shift Improve
L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T What we did Report Reading guideline Success factors and key challenges (1 page) Normal summary (1 page) 1) Introduction: Why, how and what. 2) Modelling & scenario analysis philosophy 3) Model result County 4) Model result Each municipality 5) Who can do what? Municipalities, County, Sweden, European Unition Appendix 1: More analysis Appendix II: Assumptions K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 11
L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T What we did Results K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 12
L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T What would we have done in retrospect? 13 K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k
L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 14 From: Forsberg, Lundmark & Krook-Riekkola (202?) Exploring local CO2 mitigation strategies in transportation under ambitious national policies A participatory energy system modelling approach. Under review What we did Process
L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T Planning the participatory process Assign a process coordination team to facilitate the process itself. Build trust and open up for stupid questions: Long- term collaboration with multiple interactions. OUR ROLE: Listen Model development To get good data, the practitioners need to understand a bit about the model. Focus on what the model can do by showing results opens up curiosity about how we derived to these results, thus how the model works. Start with rough data or another similar region. OUR ROLE: Answer questions Construct and select scenarios to run OUR ROLE: to support in imagining the future (thinking about the future is hard) Introduce the scenario cone to open up to more futures. Show scenario results opens up for questions and suggestions for alternative scenarios (to run). Also introduce scenarios with changes in demand. Identify preferable futures and actions plans OUR ROLE: Create discussion opportunities Reflect on what can be put on the table to create constructive discussions? In term of results and in term of questions. Invite practitioners to choose which scenarios to focus on in the analysis; this can increase acceptance of the outcome of scenario analyses. Discuss which scenario(s) that are preferred future(s). Discuss possible enablers in making a scenario reality. K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 15 From: Forsberg, Lundmark & Krook-Riekkola (202?) Exploring local CO2 mitigation strategies in transportation under ambitious national policies A participatory energy system modelling approach. Under review
L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T 1 2 3 4 How to meet the future societal needs that require energy? and at the same time meet other society goals that we have defined to the lowest costs given available resources, and given what is happening with technology evolution, future prices, and so on 16 Anna Krook-Riekkola
L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T https://www.foresightpresent.foresightfutures.net/the-futures-cone/ The Future Cone K r o o k - R i e k k o l a 17 Scenarios of the future? Scenarios FOR the future?
L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 18
19 anna.krook-riekkola@ltu.se

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Supporting municipalities with modeled based policy support - When to provide which kind of information?

  • 1. Supporting municipalities with modeled based policy support When to provide which kind of information/interactions? ETSAP Workshop, October 25 2024, Singapore Anna Krook-Riekkola, Associated Professor (TIMES) Jonas Forsberg, Postdoc (TIMES) Carina Lundmark, Associate Professor (Political Science)
  • 2. L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T A climate policy framework & a climate and clean air strategy for Sweden entered into force Jan 2018 1. A long-term climate goal: By 2045 - at the latest Sweden will have no net emissions of greenhouse gases. Net-zero means 15% of reduction can be offset by: i)LULUCF, ii)abroad, iii)BECCS 2. Intermediate targets only for emissions outside the EU Emissions Trading System (called the non- trading sector/NETS), special focus on transports. 2020 NETS: 40% reduction from 1990 2030 NETS: 63% reduction from 1990 2040 NETS: 75% reduction from 1990 2030 international transport: 70% reduction from 1990. 3. A clean air strategy with a focus on reducing air pollutants (NOX, SO2, VOC, NH4 and particles) and thereby improved air quality. K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Industry Transport Residential and services Final Energy Demand in 2020 (TWh) Electricity District heating Other fuels Natural gas, gasworks gas Oil products Coal and coke Biomass -40 10 60 110 160 TWh Net electricity production, from 1970, TWh Other thermal power CHP (district heating) CHP (industry) Nuclear power Solar power Wind power Hydropower Net Import
  • 3. L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T A climate policy framework & a climate and clean air strategy for Sweden entered into force Jan 2018 1. A long-term climate goal: By 2045 - at the latest Sweden will have no net emissions of greenhouse gases. Net-zero means 15% of reduction can be offset by: i)LULUCF, ii)abroad, iii)BECCS 2. Intermediate targets only for emissions outside the EU Emissions Trading System (called the non- trading sector/NETS), special focus on transports. 2020 NETS: 40% reduction from 1990 2030 NETS: 63% reduction from 1990 2040 NETS: 75% reduction from 1990 2030 international transport: 70% reduction from 1990. 3. A clean air strategy with a focus on reducing air pollutants (NOX, SO2, VOC, NH4 and particles) and thereby improved air quality. K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 3 MUNICIPALITIES Transportation Target: 70% reduction by 2030 from 1990. Net-zero by 2045
  • 4. L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T Sweden V辰sterbotten county 15 municipalities K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 4 Inhabitants: A1-2: 193 000 B1-6: 33 000 C1-7: 25 000 Tot: 251 000
  • 5. L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T What did we plan to do? 5 K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k
  • 6. L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T What we aimed at: A process driven by the municipalities K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 6 STEP 4: Workshop on actions needed Model based Scenario analysis STEP 2: Workshop on future societal needs that require energy Model development STEP 1: Understanding the local context STEP 3: Workshop interpreting the model result on the local context Future visions Scenario analysis Model development
  • 7. L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T What are the implication of the policy, i.e. how much CO2 are reduced to what cost future system Step 1 Simplify & Conceptualize Step 3 Interpret & conclude Present System Theory Reality 7 Step 4 Actions Model Results Model Results Model Results Model Results Model Results Available data System requirements Conceptualized description of the real system Anna Krook-Riekkola Scenario analysis Step 2 Computable model K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k
  • 8. L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T What did we do? 8 K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k
  • 9. L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 9 From: Forsberg, Lundmark & Krook-Riekkola (202?) Exploring local CO2 mitigation strategies in transportation under ambitious national policies A participatory energy system modelling approach. Under review What we did Process
  • 10. L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T What we did Scenarios F o r s b e r g , L u n d m a r k & K r o o k - R i e k k o l a 10 Type Scenario Comment Baseline WPS Weak Policy Scenario. No specific CO2 mitigation policies. Single policy scenarios Av Avoid strategy. MS Mode shift strategy. Premium Purchase premium awarded to new low-emission light-duty vehicles (improve strategy). BEVs receive the highest premium. Q2030 Reduction obligation policy (improve strategy); quotas progressing up until 2030 but unchanged thereafter. Q2045 Reduction obligation policy (improve strategy); quotas progressing up until 2045. Combined policy scenarios NPS National Policy Scenario. Combines the purchase premium and reduction obligation (Q2045 case) policies. NPS + MS + Av National Policy Scenario with the addition of local shift and avoid mitigation strategies. NPS + MS + Av + EFS National Policy Scenario with the addition of local shift and avoid mitigation strategies, and quicker cost reduction for new BEVs and a biofuel availability limitation (EFS). From: Forsberg, Lundmark & Krook-Riekkola (202?) Exploring local CO2 mitigation strategies in transportation under ambitious national policies A participatory energy system modelling approach. Under review Avoid Shift Improve
  • 11. L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T What we did Report Reading guideline Success factors and key challenges (1 page) Normal summary (1 page) 1) Introduction: Why, how and what. 2) Modelling & scenario analysis philosophy 3) Model result County 4) Model result Each municipality 5) Who can do what? Municipalities, County, Sweden, European Unition Appendix 1: More analysis Appendix II: Assumptions K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 11
  • 12. L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T What we did Results K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 12
  • 13. L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T What would we have done in retrospect? 13 K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k
  • 14. L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 14 From: Forsberg, Lundmark & Krook-Riekkola (202?) Exploring local CO2 mitigation strategies in transportation under ambitious national policies A participatory energy system modelling approach. Under review What we did Process
  • 15. L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T Planning the participatory process Assign a process coordination team to facilitate the process itself. Build trust and open up for stupid questions: Long- term collaboration with multiple interactions. OUR ROLE: Listen Model development To get good data, the practitioners need to understand a bit about the model. Focus on what the model can do by showing results opens up curiosity about how we derived to these results, thus how the model works. Start with rough data or another similar region. OUR ROLE: Answer questions Construct and select scenarios to run OUR ROLE: to support in imagining the future (thinking about the future is hard) Introduce the scenario cone to open up to more futures. Show scenario results opens up for questions and suggestions for alternative scenarios (to run). Also introduce scenarios with changes in demand. Identify preferable futures and actions plans OUR ROLE: Create discussion opportunities Reflect on what can be put on the table to create constructive discussions? In term of results and in term of questions. Invite practitioners to choose which scenarios to focus on in the analysis; this can increase acceptance of the outcome of scenario analyses. Discuss which scenario(s) that are preferred future(s). Discuss possible enablers in making a scenario reality. K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 15 From: Forsberg, Lundmark & Krook-Riekkola (202?) Exploring local CO2 mitigation strategies in transportation under ambitious national policies A participatory energy system modelling approach. Under review
  • 16. L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T 1 2 3 4 How to meet the future societal needs that require energy? and at the same time meet other society goals that we have defined to the lowest costs given available resources, and given what is happening with technology evolution, future prices, and so on 16 Anna Krook-Riekkola
  • 17. L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T https://www.foresightpresent.foresightfutures.net/the-futures-cone/ The Future Cone K r o o k - R i e k k o l a 17 Scenarios of the future? Scenarios FOR the future?
  • 18. L U L E T E K N I S K A U N I V E R S I T E T K r o o k - R i e k k o l a , F o r s b e r g & L u n d m a r k 18