Surface Ventures: What Exponential Growth of Technology means for Tribological Coatings
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The document discusses how exponential technological growth will impact tribological coatings. It notes that technology is advancing at an exponential rather than linear rate, as increased knowledge and tools drive further innovation. Major trends include increased data collection via sensors and the Internet of Things, allowing for predictive maintenance of coated assets. This will move surface engineering beyond passive coatings to connected, sensing surfaces integrated into digital platforms. Tribological coatings must adapt to leverage trends in data analytics, nanotechnology, and biomimetics to remain competitive in the future.
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Surface Ventures: What Exponential Growth of Technology means for Tribological Coatings
- 1. School of something FACULTY OF OTHER School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING Surface Ventures What Exponential Growth of Technology means for Tribological Coatings Tomasz Liskiewicz, Institute of Functional Surfaces Keynote Lecture 15th International Conference on Plasma Surface Engineering Sept 12-16, 2016, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
- 2. Outline Exponential Growth Global Technology Trends Protective and Tribological Coatings Summary and Conclusions School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 3. Exponential Growth School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 4. Linear 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 30 linear steps: end up about 30 meter away Exponential 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 30 exponential steps: billion meters away (26 times around the planet) School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 5. Knowledge grows exponentially The more we know the greater our ability to learn The greater our ability to learn the faster we expand our knowledge base Growth of knowledge fuels growth of technology Each new scientific discovery becomes a tool with which novel technologies are invented Technology feeds on itself School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 6. Law of accelerating returns Every generation of technology stands on the shoulders of the last generation of technology We use our best tools to build even better ones The rate of progress continues to speed up from version to version School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING Transcendence (2014)The Singularity is Near Ray Kurzweil (2005)
- 7. Technology feels like it is accelerating, because it actually is Moores Law Exponential rise of integrated circuits Processing power doubles every two years Cost decreases at the same rate Related technologies/industries driven by computing speed and power School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 8. School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 9. School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING http://content.time.com/time/interactive/0,31813,2048601,00.html
- 10. Exponential growth of computing based technology 40 years ago: one computer took up a whole building Today: the computer in your cell phone is a million times cheaper and a thousand times more powerful In 20 years: what fits in your pocket now will fit into a blood cell and will again be millions of times more cost effective School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 11. Human genome project Started in 1990 After 7.5 years: only 1% was completed Sceptics were predicting 100 years to complete Ray Kurzweil predicted: 15 years Genome successfully sequenced in 2003 School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING singularity.com
- 12. School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING singularity.com
- 13. Internet bandwidth School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 14. How to think exponentially School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 15. Exponential growth surprise factor Exponential growth radically different from our intuition Intuition about the future hardwired in our brains School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING singularityhub.com
- 16. Technology Trends School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 17. Ray Kurzweils predictions in 2016 The genetics revolution will allow us to reprogram our own biology The nanotechnology revolution will allow us to manipulate matter at the molecular and atomic scale The robotics revolution will allow us to create a greater than human non- biological intelligence School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 18. The industries of the future, Alec Ross (2015) Explores the next waves of innovation in robotics, genetics, coding and big data and how they will affect our world Trends covered: Robotics Advanced Life Sciences Code-ification of Money Cybersecurity Big Data School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 19. School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING What Technology Wants, Kevin Kelly (2010) The Inevitable, Kevin Kelly (2016) Technology in a wider context of human evolution Human evolution with technology has been a trend of improvement Technology is like a living organism Technology has its own needs
- 20. Deloitte: Tech Trends 2016 (Innovation in the Digital Era) Right-speed IT Augmented & virtual reality go to work Internet of Things: From sensing to doing Reimagining core systems Autonomic platforms Blockchain: Democratized trust Industrialized analytics Social impact of exponential technologies School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 21. Biomimetics trend towards ideality School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 22. Biomimetics friction in nature School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING 10-6 (1亮m) 10-7 (100nm=0.1亮m) 10-5 (10亮m) 10-4 (100亮m=0.1mm) 10-3 (1mm) 10-2 (10mm) 10-1 (100mm=0.1m) 100 (1m) 101 (10m) 102 (100m=0.1km) 103 (1km) 104 (10km) a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p s r T Liskiewicz et al, Friction in Nature, WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 2008
- 23. TRIZ TRIZ: Theory of Inventive Problems Solving Teoriya Resheniya Izobreatatelskikh Zadach TRIZ message: Innovation Can Be Codified There are universal principles of invention that are the basis for creative innovations that advance technology If these principles are identified and codified, they can be taught to make the process of invention more predictable School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 24. TRIZ Using the knowledge and experience of former inventors 2m patents studied by Altshullers team 5m (?) patents studied up to date Problems and solutions were repeated across industries Patterns of technical evolution were repeated across industries Innovations can use scientific effects outside the field where they were developed School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING Genrich Altshuller
- 25. TRIZ trends Prediction where the systems will evolve in the future Indication of the most likely successful future direction Assessment and development of intellectual property School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING Immobile system Joint Multiple joints Completely elastic Liquid/ gas Field
- 26. TRIZ surface specific trend School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 27. Protective & Tribological Coatings in the context of Exponential Technology School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 28. Protective & Tribological Coatings in Exponential Technology Outline: Big Data Internet of Things Sensors Maintenance Monitoring Platform Economy School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 29. Big Data Land was the raw material of the agricultural age Iron was the raw material of the industrial age Data is the raw material of the information age 90% of the worlds digital data has been generated over the last two years Big Data term describes how these large amounts of data can now be used to understand, analyse, and forecast trends in real time. The industries of the future, Alec Ross (2015) School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 30. Smart Manufacturing Enterprise These three operational environments will set the stage for the smart manufacturing enterprise: Smart Enterprise Control: tight integration of manufacturing assets with the wider enterprise Asset Performance Management: improved asset performance by wireless sensors, easy cloud connectivity and data analytics Augmented Operators: increased productivity by use of mobile devices, data analytics and augmented reality School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 31. Industrial Internet of Things Connected assets operate as part of a larger system that make up the smart manufacturing enterprise The assets possess varying levels of intelligent functionality (from simple sensing and actuating, to control, optimisation and full autonomous operation) Consumer IoT: moderate value so far (nice to have solutions) Commercial IoT: real business value School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 32. School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING http://www.visualcapitalist.com/industrial-internet-things-next-big-growth-driver/
- 33. School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING Quick adoption of internet related technologies 100 million people travelled by air: 70 years after invention of the airplane 100 million people to use telephone: 50 years 100 million PC users: 14 years 100 million Internet users: 7 years Facebook acquired 100 million users in 2 years
- 34. Sensors the nervous system of the IIoT Small, cheap, many of them 1000s of sensors vs. a technician with a gauge (data resolution) Single performance tasks linked to complex analytical models (temperature, vibration, acoustics) E.g. fiber optic systems available collecting spatially continuous strain and temp. data along the length of the fiber in real time Towards smart sensors with autonomous learning capability (more data more finely tuned) School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 35. The immediate business need (Case Study) ABB sensors package for low-voltage motors No additional infrastructure (incorporated battery & storage) Technician syncs data wirelessly Downtime reduced up to 70% Preventive maintenance extends life of the motor by 30% Improve motor efficiency by 10% School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING machinedesign.com
- 36. Neural dust sensor/implant (Case Study) 2x1mm, battery-less Can monitor internal nerves, muscles or organs in real time Temperature, pressure, oxygen, pH Fit-bit like device Also stimulate nerves and muscles School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING UC Bercley ScienceNews, Aug 8, 2016
- 37. Maintenance Monitoring Maintenance 1.0: wait until it breaks Maintenance 2.0: monitoring maintenance (determine breakdown by oil, vibration, thermal analysis etc.) Maintenance 3.0: predictive maintenance (asset management along with more improved condition- based techniques) Maintenance 4.0: proactive maintenance (sensors, data analysis, determination of trends) School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 38. New Economy: from Product to Platforms School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING Accenture, Technology Vision 2016, Trend 3: Platform Economy
- 39. Advanced Materials Systems Framework Materials technologies move beyond the frontier of new molecules and materials Value creation through functional solutions Leveraging inventive combinations of: Materials Process technologies Business models Partnerships Collaborations School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited Global Manufacturing Industry Group
- 40. Cost of missing the trend: Kodak 1996: $28 billion market cap and 140,000 employees 2012: Kodak filed for bankruptcy School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING singularityhub.com
- 41. Summary and Conclusions School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 42. Summary and conclusions In the not-too-distant future, billions of smart things in the physical world will be sensing, responding, communicating and sharing data Surface Ventures: studying engineering surfaces in the context of the exponential growth of technology Moving from passive coating to connected-sensing-responsive surface Surface engineering progress fuelled by trends: digitalisation, nanotechnology, platform solutions, biomimetics School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 43. Summary and conclusions The potential of IoT lies in the ability to link automation systems with enterprise planning and product life cycle systems Simple measurements BUT deep analytics (underpinned by tribological models) Predictive maintenance, improved operational efficiency Businesses will pay a high cost of not paying close attention to technology trends School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
- 44. The future has many names: For the weak, it means the unattainable. For the fearful, it means the unknown. For the courageous, it means opportunity. - Victor Hugo School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. - Wayne Gretzky
- 45. School of Mechanical Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING t.liskiewicz@leeds.ac.uk @tomliskiewicz Tomasz Liskiewicz School of Mechanical Engineering University of Leeds Leeds LS2 9JT United Kingdom