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Text mining the contributors to rail accidents
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Text Mining the Contributors to Rail Accidents
Abstract
Rail accidents represent an important safety concern for the transportation industry in
many countries. In the 11 years from 2001 to 2012, the U.S. had more than 40 000 rail accidents
that cost more than $45 million. While most of the accidents during this period had very little
cost, about 5200 had damages in excess of $141 500. To better understand the contributors to
these extreme accidents, the Federal Railroad Administration has required the railroads involved
in accidents to submit reports that contain both fixed field entries and narratives that describe the
characteristics of the accident. While a number of studies have looked at the fixed fields, none
have done an extensive analysis of the narratives. This paper describes the use of text mining
with a combination of techniques to automatically discover accident characteristics that can
inform a better understanding of the contributors to the accidents. The study evaluates the
efficacy of text mining of accident narratives by assessing predictive performance for the costs of
extreme accidents. The results show that predictive accuracy for accident costs significantly
improves through the use of features found by text mining and predictive accuracy further
improves through the use of modern ensemble methods. Importantly, this study also shows
through case xamples how the findings from text mining of the narratives can improve
understanding of the contributors to rail accidents in ways not possible through only fixed field
analysis of the accident reports.
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