The dynamics of a social convention
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The document discusses using attention data to speculate on Bitcoin prices in a trading strategy. It proposes buying or selling Bitcoin based on whether attention to Bitcoin increased or decreased over the previous time period. The strategy attempts to buy low after attention falls and sell high after attention rises. While the approach aimed to profit from the relationship between attention and price, the results section implies the strategy lost money, showing data-driven speculation can be as risky as data-driven research.
The dynamics of a social convention
- 1. The dynamics of a social convention Raquel Ros辿s Richard Janis Goldschmidt Matteo Ottaviani Matteo Manca Pablo Arag坦n Tutor: Andrea Baronchelli 1
- 2. Our social convention Bitcoin The most popular cryptocurrency 2
- 3. Our motivation How do price and attention feed each other? 3
- 4. Our motivation How do price and attention feed each other? How can we use attention to make money with Bitcoin? 4
- 5. Our approach At time unit t (week) if: If n(t, t) > 0 Sell at n(t+1) Buy at n(t+2) Else Buy at n(t+1) Sell at n(t+2) 5
- 7. Our results using demographics 7 time (week)
- 8. So, we have learnt that Data-driven speculative behaviour is as bad as data-driven research is 8
- 9. So, we have learnt that Data-driven speculative behaviour is as bad as data-driven research is We wanted to make money and now we are poor 9