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The Fog Of War

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The document outlines 11 lessons learned from Robert S. McNamara's life and career. Some of the key lessons include empathizing with enemies to find compromise, acknowledging the limits of rationality to avoid catastrophe, using proportionality as a guideline in war to avoid overreach, and being prepared to re-examine reasoning and assumptions in light of new information.

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? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk1Eleven lessons from the life of Robert S. McNamara
? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk2Lesson One:Empathise with your enemy. In the Cuban missile crisis [October 1962]this meant, at least in part, trade-offs to save ¡°face¡±.
? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk3Lesson Two:Rationality will not save us.Rational beings, thinking they were thinking rationally, took the world to the edge of oblivion in the same crisis.
? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk4Lesson Three:There is something beyond us.We must assert that there are values and responsibilities which are beyond ourselves and beyond any selfish goals.
? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk5Lesson Four:Maximise efficiency.
? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk6Lesson Five:Proportionality should be a guideline in war.Have you got the situation out of proportion?And, how far will you allow yourself to go? (e.g. Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib). Is response out of proportion to offence?
? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk7Lesson Six:Get the data.Or, do the research; see also Lesson Eight.
? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk8Lesson Seven:Seeing and believing are both often wrong.In August 1964 US sailors in the Gulf of Tonkinwere convinced they saw evidence on their sonar of concerted attempts to attack them with torpedoes, following a previous, low-level, rogue attack . US Command started bombing North Vietnam. In fact, the sailors had seen disturbances on their sonar which were caused by meteorological phenomena.
? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk9Lesson Eight:Be prepared to re-examine your reasoning.The United States believed the civil war in Vietnam was a communist-inspired rebellion designed to precipitate the domino collapse of states into communist hands: they were certain that the Vietcong were clients of the Chinese. Many years later, a former North Vietnamese foreign secretary said to McNamara at a social event, ¡°But didn't you know we had been fighting the Chinese for a thousand years?"
? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk10Lesson Nine:In order to do good, you may sometimes have to engage in evil.[But see Lesson Five]
? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk11Lesson Ten:Never say "never".
? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk12Lesson Eleven:You can't change human nature.

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The Fog Of War

  • 1. ? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk1Eleven lessons from the life of Robert S. McNamara
  • 2. ? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk2Lesson One:Empathise with your enemy. In the Cuban missile crisis [October 1962]this meant, at least in part, trade-offs to save ¡°face¡±.
  • 3. ? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk3Lesson Two:Rationality will not save us.Rational beings, thinking they were thinking rationally, took the world to the edge of oblivion in the same crisis.
  • 4. ? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk4Lesson Three:There is something beyond us.We must assert that there are values and responsibilities which are beyond ourselves and beyond any selfish goals.
  • 5. ? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk5Lesson Four:Maximise efficiency.
  • 6. ? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk6Lesson Five:Proportionality should be a guideline in war.Have you got the situation out of proportion?And, how far will you allow yourself to go? (e.g. Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib). Is response out of proportion to offence?
  • 7. ? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk7Lesson Six:Get the data.Or, do the research; see also Lesson Eight.
  • 8. ? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk8Lesson Seven:Seeing and believing are both often wrong.In August 1964 US sailors in the Gulf of Tonkinwere convinced they saw evidence on their sonar of concerted attempts to attack them with torpedoes, following a previous, low-level, rogue attack . US Command started bombing North Vietnam. In fact, the sailors had seen disturbances on their sonar which were caused by meteorological phenomena.
  • 9. ? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk9Lesson Eight:Be prepared to re-examine your reasoning.The United States believed the civil war in Vietnam was a communist-inspired rebellion designed to precipitate the domino collapse of states into communist hands: they were certain that the Vietcong were clients of the Chinese. Many years later, a former North Vietnamese foreign secretary said to McNamara at a social event, ¡°But didn't you know we had been fighting the Chinese for a thousand years?"
  • 10. ? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk10Lesson Nine:In order to do good, you may sometimes have to engage in evil.[But see Lesson Five]
  • 11. ? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk11Lesson Ten:Never say "never".
  • 12. ? Frank Wintle: 2009 - The Fog of War; frankwintle@panmedia.co.uk12Lesson Eleven:You can't change human nature.