The Role of Military and Elites in Democratization
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Project created as part of 'Democratization in Asia, Latin American and Asia' module at the University of Nottingham Ningbo,
The Role of Military and Elites in Democratization
- 1. Elites and Politics How & Why
- 2. Overview Recap Warm-up activities Why focus on the elites? Why do the elites intervene? Case studies Seminar
- 5. Why focus on the elites? Micro level Politicians, Businessmen, Royalty, Military Macro level Why?
- 6. Transition Dynamics REGIME: wants status quo HARDLINERS: no compromise REFORMERS: some degree of liberalization OPPOSI- TION: wa nts democracy MODERATE: willing to compromise No change? Transaction? RADICAL: zero compromise Rupture? Rapid?
- 7. Why intervene? Military = Guardians Sacredness Patriotism
- 9. Bureaucratic Authoritarianism Vested interests Political coalition Policy orientation Ties to economic actors Why intervene?
- 10. Case study I: Zimbabwe Key actors Key events Background video Rationale for actions Implications to democracy
- 12. Robert & Grace Mugabe Emmerson Mnangagwa Zimbabwe: Key actors
- 14. 1. The game of power between elites 2. The enormous interests involved 3. The support of Western countries Zimbabwe: Rationale
- 15. Zimbabwe: Implications Mnangagwa Interim Gov. Elections Democracy Did anything change in the end?
- 17. Case study II: Thailand Key actors Key events Background video Rationale for actions Implications to democracy
- 18. Thailand: Who are the elites?
- 19. **2005 statistics Thailand: Who are the elites? Profession Wealth Education
- 20. Thailand: Key actors and Events Pheu Thai Party Democrat Paleng Pracharat 2019 Candidates
- 22. Thailand: Rationale The Network Monarchy McCargo (2005) involves active interventions in the political process by the Thai King and his proxies The King, military, businessmen & politicians with close ties to both (Thompson, 2015) Invested interests: $$$ + Power Weak Civilian Institutions Bureaucratic Authoritarianism Micro level Structure
- 23. Thailand: Implications As soon as possible depending on the situation. Ive not decided Thats enough. When will we have the elections?
- 24. Thailand: Implications #delays Date Elections? 1 2 Feb 2014 Y but N 2 20 July 2014 N 3 End of 2015 N 4 Mid 2016 N 5 Aug/Sep 2016 N 6 Early 2018 N 7 Nov 2018 N 8 24 Feb 2019 N 24 Mar 2019 Y Officially sworn-in as PM of Thailand on July 16 2019 Are we a democracy?
- 26. The Future is in Your Hands 1. Form 4 groups 2. Each group will be given a scenario, and 3. 10 minutes to decide what you will become! 4. 1 minute presentation: 1. Who do you represent? 2. Have you democratized? Why? Why not?
- 27. Oil Tycoon Big guns The almighty Poor chap