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Random encounter models to estimate
population sizes using bat detectors
Tim C.D. Lucas & Elizabeth A. Moorcroft
Robin Freeman, Marcus Rowcliffe & Kate Jones
CoMPLEX, UCL
@timcdlucas @statsforbios
timcdlucas@gmail.com
Population size or bat passes?
Tim lucas-nbc
Original Model
Observer
vt = animal speed x time
Animal
Yapp (1956) The theory of line transects. Bird study, 3(2):93–104.
Bats are more complicated
Detector
Detector Width
Bat
Echolocation Width
Simulations
Tim lucas-nbc
How long to survey for?
q
q
q
q
q
qq
q
q
q
q
q
q
qq
q
q
q
q
q
q
qq
q
q
−50
0
50
100
150
200
10 40 70 100
Captures
PercentageError
Assumption: Straight line movement
q
q
q
q
q
q
−5.0
−2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
0° 60° 120° 180°
Turning Angle
PercentageError
Assumption: Constant movement
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
−3
0
3
6
0 0.5 0.75
Prop. Time Stationary
PercentageError
Requirements
Detector Width
r
Echolocation Width
Avg. speed
Tim lucas-nbc
Or I could make a web app...
Further work: Field tests
Any Questions ?
Tim C.D. Lucas & Elizabeth A. Moorcroft
Robin Freeman, Marcus Rowcliffe & Kate Jones
@timcdlucas @statsforbios
timcdlucas@gmail.com
Funders: BBSRC, EPSRC, BHF
Lucas, Moorcroft, Freeman,
Rowcliffe, Jones, (2015),
A generalised random encounter
model for estimating animal
density with remote sensor data.
Methods in Eco. and Evo., 6:500–509.Detector
Detector Width
Bat
Echolocation Width
Tim lucas-nbc

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