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The Theory of Change
Approach
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So what exactly (or inexactly) is the Theory of Change Approach?

*It depends a little on who you
ask.

A Theory of Change explains how a group of early and intermediate accomplishments sets the
stage for producing long-range results. A more complete Theory of Change articulates the
assumptions about the process through which change will occur, and specifies the ways in which
all of the intermediate outcomes related to achieving the change will be brought about.
* The Community
Builder’s Approach to
Theory of Change.

Theory of Change refers to the understandings an organization, project, network or group of
stakeholders has about how political, social, economic, and/or cultural change happens, and
its contribution to such a change process.
* Wageningen UR's Centre for
Development Innovation.
(http://www.theoryofchange.n
l )

A Theory of Change is about the central processes or drivers through which change comes about
for individuals, groups or communities. It can derive from a formal research-based theory or from
an untested, tacit understanding about how things work.
* Funnell and Rogers.
“Purposeful Program
Theory”.

A Theory of Change has basic components:
3
Impacts
Strategies
Connections

are (obviously) what the program or initiative hopes to accomplish.
Improved health
Lower rates of re-arrest
Increased school attendance
Long-term employment
Less bullying
Impacts

are what the program does to bring about the desired
impacts.
Strategies

Most programs deploy multiple strategies which can be grouped together.

For example, a program to reduce incidence and lessen the
impacts of school bullying might include strategies to:
Educate Students
Train Teachers
Provide Counseling
New school policy

But these
strategies
do not represent actual interventions.
Educate students
Train teachers
Provide counseling
New Policies

Educate Students Train Teachers Provide Counseling New School Policies
 In-class curriculum
 Assembly programs
 Publicity
 In-service training
 Coaching
 For victims
 For bullies
 Rules and sanctions
 Better monitoring of incidents
 Improved responsiveness
Interventions

In-class curriculum
In-service training
Counseling for bullies
Rules and sanctions
Assembly programs
Publicity Coaching
Counseling for victims
Better monitoring of incidents
Improved responsiveness Reduce incidents and
lessen the impacts of
school bullying
But how do we relate this to this
?

By mapping logical pathways: between activities and outcomes. For example

In-class curriculum
Teacher training
Rules and sanctions
Assembly programs
Publicity
Teacher coaching
Improved
responsiveness
Fewer incidents of bullying
Lessened impacts on victims
Improved school climate
Students develop new attitudes
Students feel empowered

That was a fairly simple model. It only had two main outcomes
and it included only a few antecedent steps.

But it was a bit of a mess, wasn’t it?

And there is more than one way of mapping out
the paths.

So remind me again. Whyare we doing this?

Let’s review one of our definitions of “Theory of Change”.

A Theory of Change is about the central processes or drivers through which change comes about
for individuals, groups or communities. It can be derived from a formal research-based theory or
from an untested, tacit understanding about how things work.

This idea is absolutelycritical.

Many Theories of Change neglect this.

What do youthink drives change?

Individual behavior change for example?
* A common goal of many
social programs.

How many theories can youlist for INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR CHANGE?

Incentives (carrots and sticks)
Knowledge about the costs of old behaviors
Knowledge about the benefits of new behaviors
Coaching, modeling and/or mentoring
Case management
Psychotherapy
Economic conditions
Institutional changes
Community change
New rules or regulations
New norms of social behavior
Improved access to resources
Here’s a partial list:
Social Focus
Person Focus

Theories of change can be based on professional experience, academic
research, sound hypotheses based on prior research or even common sense.
Caution!

Creating a TOC model makes it possible to articulate
and therefore scrutinize the theories that underlie
claims about how and why a set of interventions leads
to a set of outcomes.
*

Unfortunately, many programs
are based on
Access to a resource Use of that resource
Knowledge Behavior change
Sending a message Communication
Ownership Responsibility
Faulty theories
:

Or they reference the wrong
theory.

Or they fail to acknowledge alternate theories.

Let’s look at an example. Let’s examine our bullying program.

In-class curriculum
Teacher training
Rules and sanctions
Assembly programs
Publicity
Teacher coaching
Improved
responsiveness
Fewer incidents of bullying
Lessened impacts on victims
Improved school climate
Students develop new attitudes
Students feel empowered
* This line indicates an assumed
theoretical link between
counseling for bullies and less
bullying behavior. BUT…….

What:
Evidence is there that bullies have psychological problems?
Evidence is there that those problems can be reduced with counseling?
Type of counseling is warranted?
Are the possible risks of a counseling approach?

And what about dosage, e.g., how much counseling does theory suggest?

Answers to these questions need to bearticulated.

If you can articulate a sound program theory
then you know you’re doing the right things.
Knowlton and Phillips,
The Logic Model
Guidebook

Of course in order to be successful, you also
have to do things right.
Knowlton and Phillips,
The Logic Model
Guidebook

If you found this useful, we’d love it if
you would share it with your networks.
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