Toward a general measure of landscape connectivity for climate change
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This document summarizes research mapping climate change threats to habitat connectivity for three species in the Southeast United States. Researchers mapped current and projected future habitat suitability and connectivity between habitat nodes. On average, habitat suitability was projected to decrease within mapped connections by 2050, though the geography of these threats varied by species. The research aims to identify the habitat links most threatened and least threatened by climate change, as well as those connecting to the most important habitat nodes, to inform conservation planning.
Toward a general measure of landscape connectivity for climate change
- 1. Toward a general measure of landscape connectivity for climate change Jennifer Costanza Curtis Belyea, James Watling, Ron Sutherland, Nick Haddad
- 2. Biological Conservation 142 (2009) 14-32 Increasing connectivity consistently ranks as the most popular strategy for climate change 2009, Biological Conservation
- 3. Big, bold plans for landscape connectivity are emerging Theobald et al. 2012 Conserv.Lett.WA Connected Landscapes Project
- 4. Courtesy of Ron SutherlandFrom the Wildlands Network Connectivity planning in the Southeast
- 5. Black bear (Ursus americanus) Rafinesque’s big-eared bat (Corynorhinus rafinesquii) Timber rattlesnake (Crotalus horridus) Approach: connectivity for multiple species
- 6. Research questions • Where are the most and least threatened connections for each species? • Do species vary in the climate change threat to their connectivity?
- 7. Alternative resistance surfaces Niche model Empirical (literature) Red High resistance Blue Low resistance Expert opinion (surveys) Black bear
- 8. Mapping connectivity Resistance surface Habitat nodes Connections Linkage Mapper software: least-cost paths between nodes
- 9. Future threat is change in suitability Black bear percent change in suitability recent to 2050, A2 scenario Red Decrease Blue Increase
- 10. Red Large decrease Orange Moderate decrease Blue Increase Black bear niche resistance, Linkage Mapper Change in habitat suitability
- 12. BatSnake Bear Changes in suitability by ecoregion Red = largest decrease Blue = increase
- 13. Which links connect to important nodes? Change in Integral Index of Connectivity for nodes (Pascual-Hortal and Saura 2006) Dark blue = 10% most important nodes Black bear
- 14. Where are the important links that are most and least threatened? BatSnake Bear Red = 10% most threat Blue = 10% least threat
- 15. Summary • We mapped climate change threat to habitat connections for three species in the Southeast • On average, suitability decreased within mapped connections, and species were similar in average amount of climate change threat • The geography of climate change threat varied by species • We are doing parallel work to examine effects of future land use change on connections