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Towards enhanced capacity for prevention and resolution of future climate and natural resource-related conflicts in the Zambezi Basin
- 1. TOWARDS ENHANCED CAPACITY FOR PREVENTION AND RESOLUTION OF FUTURE CLIMATE AND NATURAL RESOURCE-RELATED CONFLICTS IN THE ZAMBEZI BASIN Sustainable Prosperity: New Challenges for Natural Resource Governance Theory in Africa Roundtable Discussion: 27 November 2012 Jan Smuts House, Johannesburg TIGERE CHAGUTAH
- 2. Background Globally, climate change currently sits on top of the international policy agenda Increasingly, security implications of climate change are attracting increased attention. In July 2011 UN SC held first open debate and issued a statement expressing its concern about adverse effects of climate change aggravating existing threats to international peace and security Climate change/conflict relationship is complex & yet to be sufficiently understood; General thesis is cc will act as a threat multiplier Responses still being studied What is clear: Projected impacts of long-term changes in climate, some of which have already occurred, are likely to increase a range of risks to human security, including the risk of many forms
- 3. Background cont. Scoping study, Climate Change and the Risk of Violent Conflicts in Southern Africa released June 2011 (Global Crisis Solutions, Uppsala University and the Swedish Defence Research Agency) Draws a correlation between socio-economic profile, existing governance context and weakened adaptive capacities to predict risk to conflict among communities It is unlikely that the socioeconomic impact of climate change/variability will cause conflict on its own. Climate change/variability is one among many causes of conflict and its role is set to become more prominent in future conflicts. Bulawayo/ Matabeleland North Province (Zimbabwe) and Chinde District (Zambezi Delta, Mozambique) identified as areas most prone to risk of violent conflict (collective violence, popular unrest) induced
- 4. Socio-Economic + political variables Bulawayo/ Matabeleland North BIOPHYSICAL Recorded average rise in daily min. temp of 2.6 deg C over last century Decline in rainfall approx. 5% since 1990 Vulnerable to recurrent droughts, rainfall is unreliable, run-off is poor, rivers are perennially dry. SOCIO-ECONOMIC Second largest city, after Harare,. Pop. 1,000,000 Highest mean household size (5.23) and highest mean dependency ratio (1.40) in the urban centres of Zimbabwe 60% of population live below the poverty datum line; highest incidence of poverty among urban households in urban centres Less than 45% per cent of economically active people informally employed Severe economic downturn since 2000 POLITICAL/ CULTURAL Multi-ethnic, Ndebele ethic group are the majority
- 5. Socio-Economic + political variables cont. Chinde District BIOPHYSICAL Frequent rains; average monthly rainfall of 65.3mm and a relative humidity of 73.4% Frequent torrential rains from cyclones that can occur in any month from December to March, causing widespread local flooding Classified by UNFCCC as one of most vulnerable regions in Moz, itself ranked 3rd among countries most exposed to multiple weather-related risks SOCIO-ECONOMIC Total population of 119,898 (females: 52.4% and males: 47.6%) 53.8% under the age of 18 Population density highest along the coast . Fishing in Zambezi River, agriculture and small , informal trade are the main economic activities. POLITICAL
- 6. Vulnerability to CC Both regions economies and political/social organisation dependent on factors that are highly sensitive to climate impacts Area Climate impacts Drivers compounding vulnerability Water scarcity, water Rise in average temperatures coupled with a decline in average stress rainfall Decline in reservoir capacity Rising population Politically enforced neglect of water resources development Bulawayo/ Mat North Food insecurity General aridity of region Decline in average rainfall Centralised marketing and pricing of cereals leads to artificial shortages Politically enforced neglect of development/food security programmes Flooding Sea level rise Uncoordinated up-stream flow management Increased cyclonic activity Forced and Loss of living and working space to sea level rise Chinde voluntary migration Costal erosion Decreased Salt water intrusion/salinisation of agricultural land and water
- 7. Adaptive Capacity Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of a system to adjust to climate change, to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. Factors mediating adaptive capacity isolated for investigation in this study: human skills set, education and literacy, information availability; rules and regulations; available infrastructure and technology; trade patterns and economic performance; mobility; and quality of political governance.Bulawayo Factor Chinde Access to- ESAP and international economic Widespread poverty, under- and isolation led to / exacerbated poverty development and limited distribution Majority not in formal employment and employment opportunities of resources dependent on illegal, semi-legal and Communities survive mostly on and income legal activities small-scale income fishing, agriculture and petty generating activities trading with limited Operation Murambatsvina destroyed opportunities for diversified many sources of livelihoods income sources Majority of youth unemployed; older Widespread absence of residents dependent on pensions or household assets and welfare grants whose purchasing livestock power has been eroded by inflation Absence of small credit finance Remittances dwindling and no longer for farmers provide widespread or reliable support
- 8. Adaptive Capacity cont. Factor Bulawayo Chinde Rules and Centralised marketing and pricing policies Tax credit policy for investors regulations impacting on food security expected to enhance new New policy guidelines and municipal by-laws investment set to enable urban and peri-urban agriculture Availability of Sturdy housing protects against exposure to Lack of robust housing exposes infrastructure and climate hazards communities to multiple weather- technological Provision of boreholes to boost urban related hazards options agriculture and water availability bad transport infrastructure Frequent electric cuts and shortage of militates against effective disaster alternative energy sources response and communication Limited access to health and basic services, water and sanitation Limited sources to energy, primarily firewood Human capital: Mass exodus of skilled and economically Opportunities for tertiary education Skills, education, active population due to economic and and vocational training are limited communication and political downturn Communication is difficult as most information City maintains a fairly adequate institutional parts are unreachable during the availability base for the development of much needed flood season capacity and trade training telecommunications are erratic; City served by national broadcaster, satellite most residents do not have access TV and state and independent newspapers to television, radio, telephone and other ICTs
- 9. Adaptive Capacity cont. Factor Bulawayo Chinde Economy and Extensive rail infrastructure that once provided a Trade is mainly local and small trade patterns vibrant transport hub between Botswana, South scale Africa and Zambia, promoting the citys development Main cash crop is sugar but as a thriving industrial centre now lies in a state of sugar processing plant was disrepair destroyed during the civil war city lacks good air links to other countries and other Poor transport infrastructure centres in Zimbabwe makes the zone relatively Massive disinvestment in past decade isolated, and results in limited City is a marketing and distribution centre for the market interaction with even primary produce originating in the western regions of neighboring areas the country and provides trade links with South Africa for small scale and larger cross-border trade Mobility Migratory labour offers source of income Most migration following Diasporas (particularly in SA) traditionally remit sudden onset climate-related finances and other resources disasters tends to be short- Diasporas experience xenophobic abuse and impacts distance and temporary in such as loss of income are felt locally nature
- 10. Political Governance/CC nexus When climate change impacts the economy negatively politics can act as a catalyst that transforms latent tensions and competition over dwindling resources and opportunities into full blown conflict thus forestalling any efforts at adaptation. Similarly, climate-induced disasters put stress upon society and that stress, particularly in countries with fewer resources for coping, can result in civil unrest and violence. Where there exists weak political, economic and social institutions, the resilience of the vulnerable worsens; and Existence of polarised social identities accentuates differences leading to further deterioration of the situation. Conversely, where the quality of political governance is high and there are measures to foster cooperation in natural resource management and equitable distribution of resources societys ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change and variability is enhanced.
- 11. Political Governance/CC nexus: Elites Quality of governance is dependant on the role played by elites, institutions and social identities National elites, often through local elites, are leading sponsors of conflict: ZANU PF; MDC T/N; FRELIMO; RENAMO Patronage networks determine destination of dwindling resources Elites exploit resource related anxiety to mobilise aggrieved communities against rival elites and other communities Malign elites use access to food and water as a political tool thus fuelling conflict
- 12. Political Governance/CC nexus: Institutions Low/weak institutional capacity typical in both study areas Institutions weakened by external pressures (Economic SAPs, withdrawal of foreign aid, price shocks, falling commodity prices) and internal dynamics (political transitions and economic mismanagement) State institutions ability to provide basic services, access to food and water, and poverty alleviation programmes is severely curtailed. Additional stress resulting from climate change leads to aggrieved communities. Little confidence in state institutions
- 13. Political Governance/CC nexus: Soc Identities Existing feelings of injustice relating to resource development, distribution and management heavily tied to ethnic/regional identities Matabeleland Zambezi Water Project Existing sense of marginalisation will be accentuated by climate change-induced resource stress Convergence of cultural, economic and political differences heighten sense of marginalisation and could lead to violent conflict
- 14. Primary intervention: Strengthen local level capacity for governance of nat. resources Context: Bio-physical and socio-economic vulnerability + structural and governance-related barriers to increased adaptive capacity... Stakeholder overview: Bulawayo Chinde UN and other Intergovernmental UN Clusters organisations Government Agencies INGOs & NGOs INGOs CBOs & FBOs Local NGOs UN Clusters NGO Networks and Social Development Dialogue Fora Government Depts Media
- 15. Stakeholders Bulawayo Over 25 organisations working (some not primarily) on community-oriented natural-resource governance. Due to recent history most organised formations/associations focuisng on governance deal with political and human-rights issues (Byo Agenda, Radio Dialogue, Zim HR Forum, Centre for Peace Initiatives in Africa) Residents and water user (rate payers) associations not as active as in the past Re-capacitate and diversify away from political agenda Chinde Approx 20 organisations/associations identified; dominated by I/NGOs and government Very little community organisation around natural resource governance Catalyse local level action and mobilisation; Fisher associations, Radio Chinde
- 16. Bulawayo Agenda Target: Politically and developmentally marginalised communities in rural and peri-urban areas. Aim: opening up, expansion and increasing accessibility of space for civic participation in public and political spaces Methodology: public debates, community conversations, leadership trainings and focus group meetings Community Committees - In12 (twelve) areas including in and around Bulawayo, made up of ten members each(5 female, 5 male) elected by the local communities comprising individual representatives drawn from civic groups, CBOs, FBOs, Schools Development Associations, Residents Associations, Burial Societies. Committees sit on monthly basis to plan monthly activities, providing an environmental scan and analysis for programmatic response + evaluation of carried out activities.
- 17. Bulawayo Agenda cont. Community Resources Monitoring Training June 2012, Nkayi Aim: to develop the capacity of community leaders and members to monitor their local resources and hold local decision makers accountable for the development of the community. Twenty six (26) people including three village heads, three councilors, five residents association representatives, activists, a School Development Association chairperson and church leaders trained Photo credit: BA
- 18. Bulawayo Agenda cont. Inkundla (community leaders meeting) at the Chiefs Nkalakatha, Nkayi Meeting organised by local CBO More than 300 participants including 13 village heads, women and school children converged at Chief Nkalakathas Inkundla Focus: Discuss how villagers can be at the forefront of spearheading developmental issues as opposed to the top- down approach as seen in the community share schemes
- 19. THANK YOU.