This document discusses the history and future of ISAF (International Society for Alcohol Fuels) over a 40 year period from 1976 to 2016. It summarizes a 1986 report by Roy Sage on the past and future of alcohol fuels from 1976 to 1996, which predicted that alcohol fuels would gain traction in the US and Brazil and be used for octane enhancement elsewhere. However, low oil prices in 1986 made the future of alcohol fuels unclear. The report predicted that oil prices could rise by the late 20th century, and that factors like Middle East instability would drive energy diversification. It argued political will would be needed for alcohol fuels to expand to new markets. Statistics from 2015 show global ethanol production up 6% and biodiesel up
2. By Martin St. Amant
A brief history of ISAF: 1976-2016
15 countries, 5 continents, 40 years
5. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
Edited by Roy Sage* (Canada), 1986, and based on
IOC members first 10-yr experience. Also
production and end-use technologies
Driving forces for the utilization of
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)
6. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)
Production technology:
Ethanol from cellulosic feed-stocks
Ethanol from methane or natural gas
7. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)
8. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)
End-use technology:
Development of fuel tolerant vehicles, known today
as flex-fuel vehicles
Approaches to alcohol fuels in compression ignition
two-stroke diesel engines:
9. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)
Obscure future for alcohol fuels: prevalent
1986 low oil prices, cheap oil for years to
come!
10. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)
Oil prices could rise rapidly towards the end of
the XX century: decreasing output from
Alaskan North Slope, North Sea.
11. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)
Alcohol fuels to be used where they have
achieved a foothold, in the USA and Brazil
and penetrate the octane market elsewhere
Same alcohol fuel driving forces will continue
to operate, namely security of oil supply;
broad economic benefits and environmental
benefits
12. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)
Instability in the Middle East will prompt
OECD to seek energy source diversification
In the USA methanol from coal would be a
strong contender
13. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)
14. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)
Strategic, economic and environmental costs not
factored in free market approaches
Introduction of alcohol fuels in most markets
requires political will and decision
17. BP Statistical Review of World Energy
2015
息 BP p.l.c. 2015
Biofuels production by region
Million tonnes oil equivalent
World biofuels production
In 2014:
Global ethanol production increased
by 6.0%
Biodiesel production increased by
10.3%