Tziralis & Ipeirotis at 3rd Prediction Markets Workshop
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A research work by George Tziralis & Panos Ipeirotis. Detecting Important Events using Prediction Markets, Text Mining, and Volatility Modeling. Presented on July 9th in the 3rd Prediction Markets workshop, Kellog's School of Management, Northwestern University, Chicago
Tziralis & Ipeirotis at 3rd Prediction Markets Workshop
- 1. Detecting Important Events using Prediction Markets, Text Mining, and Volatility Modeling George Tziralis Panos Ipeirotis
- 2. markets and ef鍖ciency strong: prices re鍖ect all information, public and private semi-strong: prices re鍖ect all publicly available information weak: past prices cannot be used for market prediction
- 3. prediction markets? Perhaps, the relationship between price and information is no more clear than in prediction markets (Pennock et al. 2002) lets start from the weak form of ef鍖ciency is it possible to predict future prices using only past ones?
- 4. playground InTrade political contracts US nominee elections 08 800 - 1000 time series instances for each contract