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A time for choice: stewardship of the Garden Route

Christo Fabricius
Christo Fabricius

Public lecture delivered on 7 November to Garden Route stakeholders. The Garden Route is staring over a cliff and the choices we make now will determine our ability to respond to global uncertainties. Two factors: trends in the global economy, and government's commitment to implement the recommendations of the National Planning Commission, will make a huge difference to the Garden Route's future. Four scenarios: "Eish, missed the bus"; "Maverick's paradise"; "Local is Lekker" and "Carpe Diem" could emerge. Our ability to respond to these will depend on flexible yet proactive plannning, management of ecological infrastructure, closing the wealth gap and investing in education and technology.

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A time for choice: stewardship of the Garden Route Christo Fabricius
A time for choice: stewardship of the Garden Route
Uncertain times Complex systems Social, political, economic, technological, ecological Unpredictability wild cards episodic events Shocks, surprise Non-linear change The past is not a good predictor of the future Trends and extrapolation not very useful
Regime shifts A large, abrupt Lasting impacts on change in the way a productivity system functions
Capacity / Lost ecosystem services Slow and fast factors Time Institutional capacity Ecosystem services
Making peace with uncertainty Think short and long term Considering See the over-all picture Question the future multiple Consider implications of possible policy decisions futures Experiment, monitor, learn
Asking the right questions Political Ecological Economic Which factors are Social beyond the Garden Routes control? Technological Political Ecological Economic Which factors are Social important for our future? Technological
Planning under uncertain conditions Uncontrollable factors Controllable factors Fires Ecological infrastructure Ecosystem Floods Biodiversity management Droughts Invasive alien plants USA Implementation Local Economic Eurozone Responsiveness Development China Debt vs investment Local Policies Capacity development Vision 2030 policies, Skills strategies and Capacity Education practices Technology: Private sector Population Immigration investment Green economy Affordable infrastructure
A time for choice: stewardship of the Garden Route
Outside forces Shocks and surprises Vulnerability Resilience Peoples choices
The future isnt what it used to be.. Anarchy New balls Failed state please OR Premier league second division Global economic recovery Eish (we Carpe missed diem the bus) Maverics Local is paradise lekker Hard times for all Pockets of excellence Innovation Ignored Implementation of Vision 2030 Prioritized
What to do? hedging our bets..
Ecosystem management Repair ecological infrastructure Coastal fore-dunes Riverbanks Wetlands Indigenous forests Manage threats NOW Invasive plants Land transformation Partnerships; imaginative proposals; innovation funding
Local Economic Development Implementation of the PACA results Capacity development Project management skills Existing unproductive expenditure and commitments Carefully assess priorities Be prepared to dump some projects But pride and egos? The Garden Route as a Many have spoken about it - heed the calls knowledge and education Align development priorities hub in South Africa
Local policy reform Accountability of local political representatives Assess impact of Reduce where possible and bureaucracy feasible Cooperation restore trust and and credibility stewardship Close the Plans and wealth gap and incentives promote unity Align IDPs with Can existing economic Think outside budgets be the box with the development spent more IDP process priorities strategically?
Private sector investment Strategic Barriers & bridges assessment Capacity to form Match-makers, facilitators partnerships Project management skills Strategic Innovators, regulators and alliances implementers
Conclusions Choices: the Garden Route is staring over a cliff We are probably the last generation who can pre-empt and manage a tipping point Yes, we are accountable Stewardship: holding ourselves accountable for the choices we make now

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A time for choice: stewardship of the Garden Route

  • 1. A time for choice: stewardship of the Garden Route Christo Fabricius
  • 3. Uncertain times Complex systems Social, political, economic, technological, ecological Unpredictability wild cards episodic events Shocks, surprise Non-linear change The past is not a good predictor of the future Trends and extrapolation not very useful
  • 4. Regime shifts A large, abrupt Lasting impacts on change in the way a productivity system functions
  • 5. Capacity / Lost ecosystem services Slow and fast factors Time Institutional capacity Ecosystem services
  • 6. Making peace with uncertainty Think short and long term Considering See the over-all picture Question the future multiple Consider implications of possible policy decisions futures Experiment, monitor, learn
  • 7. Asking the right questions Political Ecological Economic Which factors are Social beyond the Garden Routes control? Technological Political Ecological Economic Which factors are Social important for our future? Technological
  • 8. Planning under uncertain conditions Uncontrollable factors Controllable factors Fires Ecological infrastructure Ecosystem Floods Biodiversity management Droughts Invasive alien plants USA Implementation Local Economic Eurozone Responsiveness Development China Debt vs investment Local Policies Capacity development Vision 2030 policies, Skills strategies and Capacity Education practices Technology: Private sector Population Immigration investment Green economy Affordable infrastructure
  • 10. Outside forces Shocks and surprises Vulnerability Resilience Peoples choices
  • 11. The future isnt what it used to be.. Anarchy New balls Failed state please OR Premier league second division Global economic recovery Eish (we Carpe missed diem the bus) Maverics Local is paradise lekker Hard times for all Pockets of excellence Innovation Ignored Implementation of Vision 2030 Prioritized
  • 12. What to do? hedging our bets..
  • 13. Ecosystem management Repair ecological infrastructure Coastal fore-dunes Riverbanks Wetlands Indigenous forests Manage threats NOW Invasive plants Land transformation Partnerships; imaginative proposals; innovation funding
  • 14. Local Economic Development Implementation of the PACA results Capacity development Project management skills Existing unproductive expenditure and commitments Carefully assess priorities Be prepared to dump some projects But pride and egos? The Garden Route as a Many have spoken about it - heed the calls knowledge and education Align development priorities hub in South Africa
  • 15. Local policy reform Accountability of local political representatives Assess impact of Reduce where possible and bureaucracy feasible Cooperation restore trust and and credibility stewardship Close the Plans and wealth gap and incentives promote unity Align IDPs with Can existing economic Think outside budgets be the box with the development spent more IDP process priorities strategically?
  • 16. Private sector investment Strategic Barriers & bridges assessment Capacity to form Match-makers, facilitators partnerships Project management skills Strategic Innovators, regulators and alliances implementers
  • 17. Conclusions Choices: the Garden Route is staring over a cliff We are probably the last generation who can pre-empt and manage a tipping point Yes, we are accountable Stewardship: holding ourselves accountable for the choices we make now