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Editor's Notes

• #2: The Pm court  Judge daniel kahneman Accused of doing x, when said this Guilty of article #34 this of that  Letter with a stamp, a card with the 4.  Resolution  Mail it to you at the end of 1Q  You are on trial 
• #3: Background Kahneman’s research explores cognitive science, uncertainty, illogical thinking, behavioral economics Resolution: humans assume certain things automatically without having thought thru them carefully
• #4: Resolution: humans assume certain things automatically without having thought thru them carefully “Most people do not take the trouble to think through [a] problem,” (page 45). “Intelligence is not only the ability to reason; it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed,”
• #5: Broken into 38 different heuristics, these are the heuristics lead to a mudded thinking It’s a huge book, and 10 different studies for each of these.
• #6: System 1: automatically, involuntary Drive, read a facial expression, take a shower System 2: deliberating, solving, reasoning, focus, considering other data weighing the options Math problem, complicated form, where to invest money These two systems often conflict with one another. System 1 operates on heuristics that may not be accurate. System 2 requires effort evaluating those heuristics and is prone error.
• #7: Fast Thinking: automatic, involuntary
• #10: Fast Thinking: automatic, involuntary
• #12: System 2: deliberating, solving, reasoning, focus, considering other data, weighing the options Math problem, complicated form, where to invest money
• #14: These two systems often conflict with one another. Think Fast: operates on heuristics that may not be accurate. Snap judgement. Incorrect read. Think Slow: Requires effort that you may not have energy for, or choose to use. Go with our gut….. Error in judgement.
• #16: These two systems often conflict with one another. Think Fast: operates on heuristics that may not be accurate. Think Slow: Requires effort evaluating those heuristics Go with our gut….. Error in judgement.
• #19: Honorable Judge Daniel Kahneman presiding You are on the stand…. Breaking or violating 3 Examples
• #20: Heuristics are the laws of human psychology. As a product manager you can break these laws… or be over them. Break a law: jump to a conclusion, only consider on reference or go based on your gut Above the law: you know psychology and are intentional about how you approach it
• #21: Heuristics are the laws of human psychology. As a product manager you can break these laws… or be over them. Break a law: jump to a conclusion, only consider on reference or go based on your gut Above the law: you know psychology and are intentional about how you approach it
• #22: Honorable Judge Daniel Kahneman presiding You are on the stand…. Breaking or violating 3 Examples
• #23: Duke Plans are unrealistically close to best case scenarios Desire to get the plan approved (best case) and the sunk cost falicy that projects are not abandoned Extra: Causes to accept that a statement is true When information is scarce, system 1 is designed to jump to conclusions from little evidence. but it does not know how far it jump is When presented with information, we assume everything is there to make a decision (What-you-see-is-all-there-is)
• #24: Takeaway: Avoid delusional optimism and use rational weighting of gains, losses, and probabilities Product Managers: Breaking the Law Believe your own external marketing from the pitch deck for future forecasting Grow 10% of $100m market, or hockey sticking new customers Use buffer or padding for roadmap or agile velocity (self-fulling prophecy) Feature driven planning/decisions with no Believe that you are special and will not fail like the others Above: Many fails: know the stakes and maximize fail ratio Publish possibilities of success and failure equally on future plans (roadmaps, financial projects, tech)
• #25: Takeaway: Avoid delusional optimism and use rational weighting of gains, losses, and probabilities Product Managers: Breaking the Law Believe your own external marketing from the pitch deck for future forecasting Grow 10% of $100m market, or hockey sticking new customers Use buffer or padding for roadmap or agile velocity (self-fulling prophecy) Feature driven planning/decisions with no Believe that you are special and will not fail like the others Above: Many fails: know the stakes and maximize fail ratio Publish possibilities of success and failure equally on future plans (roadmaps, financial projects, tech)
• #26: Result: The warm emotion we feel toward a person, place, or thing predisposes us to like everything about that person, place, or thing. Story: If you are told that you meet Joan at a party and she is very likable. When asked, “is she charitable?” Respondents say yes. Other examples: teachers grading essays or the worst yet… executives in meetings all day
• #27: Who do you choose?
• #28: Who do you choose?
• #29: Result: The warm emotion we feel toward a person, place, or thing predisposes us to like everything about that person, place, or thing. Story: If you are told that you meet Joan at a party and she is very likable. When asked, “is she charitable?” Respondents say yes. Other examples: teachers grading essays or the worst yet… executives in meetings all day
• #30: Executives well versed in all day meetings know that open discussion give weight to early, assertive opinions (line up behind) Examples : product pitches, roadmap meetings, feature tradeoff discussions Writing Off Sources: discredit ideas of based on historical impression of the source Drowning out or anti-behavior against sources of first impression of low value (grading papers example) : loud customers drown out, lame coworker brainstorms, old methods Suede Interviewing: think you are more likely to like team members who agreed, furthermore use product buzz words around best practices We just lean startup, that guerrilla design thinking process to a user-centric MVP
• #31: Sequence matters, be agnostic of impressions and nothing at the end is treated the same as the beginning (new customers, employees, ideas) Weight of first impressions, renders post items irrelevant
• #33: These two systems often conflict with one another. Think Fast: operates on heuristics that may not be accurate. Snap judgement. Incorrect read. Think Slow: Requires effort that you may not have energy for, or choose to use. Go with our gut….. Error in judgement.
• #35: Combat over confidence by basing our beliefs not on subjective feelings but critical thinking. Increase clear thinking by giving doubt and ambiguity its day in court. Be aware and be intentional.
• #38: Broad Thinking: as in financial market trading, find bets where there is a small win and then maximize the amount of bets (1000 bets) Broadly is non-intuitive. It’s a System 2 task that takes work. We therefore are wired by System 1 to think irrationally economically (saying no to easy money). Of 25 divisions, offered $100 loss or $200 gain. They said No. The CEO said yes to all, because there were 25 chances.
• #39: We therefore are wired by System 1 to think irrationally economically
• #40: Broad Thinking: as in financial market trading, find bets where there is a small win and then maximize the amount of bets (1000 bets) Broadly is non-intuitive. It’s a System 2 task that takes work. We therefore are wired by System 1 to think irrationally economically Of 25 divisions, offered $100 loss or $200 gain. They said No. The CEO said yes to all, because there were 25 chances.
• #41: Saying no to risks until they are close to a sure thing Using only internal data for building a business case Looking at technology investments as only benefiting their product or the whole company—nothing in between Tactical suggestion: Create risk policies for the company that give all leaders a framework for making decisions and avoid “loss aversion” Never buying warranties, knowing the risk; Always Pool risks with other product leaders to give an aggregate risk balance Of 25 divisions, offered $100 loss or $200 gain. They said No. The CEO said yes to all, because there were 25 chances.