Updating Nowcasts for German GDP growth
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Real-time illustration of how the Nowcasting library of JDemetra+ can be used to update expectations for GDP growth. I will update the result frequently but not regularily, hoping that you will be curious about the methodology and decide to specify your own models with this tool, which is free and open source software
Updating Nowcasts for German GDP growth
- 1. EXPECTATIONS formation and updating Econometric & Statistical tools JDemetra+ defines nowcasting in terms of the dynamic interactions of real world things: A. The newsflow (potentially Big Data- V3: Volume/Variety/Velocity) B. Technologies for signal extraction (e.g. short-term forecasting methods) C. Interpretation of changes in expectations in terms of the news HOW DOES IT WORK IN PRACTICE? Purely illustrative Example: Updating German GDP LAST UPDATE 30 October 2015
- 2. Germany: Impact of PMI releases on forecast revisions for Flash GDP 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 Forecast revisions Update: 24 July 2015, 10:00 am (from June)
- 3. Germany: Joint Impact of PMI and IFO releases on forecast revisions for Flash GDP 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 Forecast revisions Update: 27 July 2015 (from June)
- 4. Germany: Joint Impact of PMI, IFO,Orders and IPI releases on forecast revisions for Flash GDP 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 Forecast revisions Update: 8 August 2015 (from June)
- 5. Interpretation of the data released over the last month based on a new model with a specific factor for external demand expectations (IFO) Nowcasts: 2015q3: 0.0% 2015q4: 0.2% 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 Forecast revisions Last update 30 October 2015 2016Q3
Editor's Notes
- #2: SKIP!!!