U.S. Solar Market Insight Conference 2011
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The document summarizes the state of the US solar industry in 2011. It describes the bankruptcies and plant closures faced by solar manufacturers that year due to oversupply. It also discusses the trade petition filed alleging that Chinese solar companies were dumping products at unfair prices, and the potential impacts of duties. Additionally, it outlines key questions around the future of federal and state incentives and how they could impact industry trends in 2012.
U.S. Solar Market Insight Conference 2011
- 1. The U.S. Solar Industry: Story Behind the Headlines Shayle Kann Managing Director, Solar GTM Research U.S. Solar Market Insight November 16, 2011 OR Day 67 A.S. COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
- 2. 2011 Has Been a Tough Year For Solar Manufacturers Source: GTM Research COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
- 3. The Fall-Out in the U.S. Bankruptcies Plant Closures Media (Over)Reaction Trade War Vs. COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
- 4. Trade Petition - Understanding Market Impacts Data is sourced from CA, NJ and MD, which together comprise over 50% of the U.S. market. However, actual market shares for the entire country may differ. Also note that this refers to manufacturer headquarters, not location of manufacturing facilities. COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
- 5. Trade Petition - Understanding Market Impacts Data is sourced from CA, NJ and MD, which together comprise over 50% of the U.S. market. However, actual market shares for the entire country may differ. Also note that this refers to manufacturer headquarters, not location of manufacturing facilities. COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
- 6. Trade Petition Near-Term Questions Timing 1603 vs. Potential Duties Q4 Shipment Boom Bigger or Smaller? Financing and Redesign for Late-Stage Projects Will Suppliers Take on the Duty Risk? COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
- 7. The Growing Importance of the U.S. End Market Source: GTM Research/SEIA速 U.S. Solar Market Insight TM COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
- 8. U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2007 NJ NV CO CA Source: GTM Research COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
- 9. U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2011E MA OR NY PA NJ OH DE NV MD CO CA NC TN AZ NM TX FL HI Source: GTM Research COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
- 10. The Latest Installation Numbers Source: GTM Research/SEIA速 U.S. Solar Market Insight TM COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
- 11. Non-Residential Market In a State of Flux Source: GTM Research COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
- 12. U.S. Residential Solar Lease Landscape Tax Third-Party Finance Providers Residential Module Suppliers Equity Finance w/ Subcontracted Integrators/Finance w/ Residential Providers Providers Installations Providers Lease Programs Source: GTM Research
- 13. The Spectrum of Possibilities for 2012 Module Pricing Project Financing State Market Dynamics Global NY Solar Growth in Oversupply Increased Jobs Act TX, MO, Tax Equity from IL, PR Corporates, NJ: S2371 Drivers New Entrants PA: HB 1580 Global Chinese 1603 Cash State Tax Equity New Market Supply/Demand Cell /Module Grant Legislatio Supply Development Balance Import Duty Extension n Constraints Small Duty; Chinese Suppliers OH RPS Remain Roll-Back Active Tax Equity CSI Funding Global Large Duty; Bottleneck, Depletion Undersupply Disappearanc Rates >15%- e of Chinese 17% Suppliers COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
- 14. Final Thoughts: We Have a Long Way to Go Source: EIA, GTM Research Source: DOE, GTM Research COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
- 15. Thank You! Shayle Kann Managing Director, Solar GTM Research Email: kann@gtmresearch.com www.gtmresearch.com U.S. Solar Market Insight Reports U.S. Utility PV Market Tracker COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Editor's Notes
- #2: Thanks ShyamData is from recently announced partnership with SEIA and our joint product the US Solar Market Insight Report has more detailed data on installations and costs on a state-by-state and market segment basisWe see demand hitting 870 MW this year, but thats contingent on many of the announced utility projects coming online in Q3 and Q4Were on pace for roughly 780 MWNon-res sector is historically slow in first half of the yearseasonal effects and hangover effect of large upswings in the 4th quarterUtil+large non-res projects seeing significant barriers in securing financing (condition is still improving but not at pre-recession levels) and underbidding on PPAsCalifornia is starting to stabilize in the distributed market (still large utility pipeline) but other markets are taking off