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VC4 Welfare Reform

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Voluntas 4th Annual Customer Conference. 15th November 2012. Welfare Reform by Joe Halewood, Supported Housing Consultant.

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Welfare? No! Reform? No! Dont miss the elephant in the room joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood #speyejoe 07749 121 332
Elephants? SRS has focused on bedroom tax, bedroom tax, bedroom tax That is inept as it only levels the playing field with PRS and LHA Other changes are far more damaging to the social housing model and the SRS is only just waking up to (some) of them - the OBC and tenant perceptions it is missing joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
Welfare? It is not WELFARE (benefit) changes that will happen but HOUSING BENEFIT changes and cuts HOUSING BENEFIT accounts for 62% or so of SRS income The OBC simply deducts WELFARE BENEFITS from the overall benefit cap leaving a residual amount that can be paid TOWARDS rent You cant cut my dole but you can cut my rent tenant perceptions are being ignored joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
Welfare ? JSA / IS or dole is the same level across the country as is DLA or any other WELFARE benefit It is already capped & the Welfare Reform Bill didnt cut or cap the level of any WELFARE benefit WELFARE reform (?) is a bigger misnomer than affordable rent or supporting people (SP) 10 years ago supported housing went through its biggest change now it is the turn of general needs social housing joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
Welfare? Reform? The raft of reforms are not WELFARE reforms (?) they are HOUSING BENEFIT reforms Reform means to improve? The welfare (sic) reforms (sic) benefit who exactly? The changes are just HB cuts and a (political and dogmatic) attack on the social housing model The move from bricks and mortar to people and this means tenant perceptions of reform joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
Impact, Impact, Impact! Overall Benefit Cap 74% public approval No family should get more in benefit than the average wage strong yet superficial argument (but unchallenged!) SRS / RP approach it wont affect us our rents are only 贈90 per week! is naive short-termism writ large OBC will fundamentally change the tenant demographic and profile in the SRS joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
Bricks and Mortar to People? Supported housing deals with people general needs social housing deals with bricks and mortar 10 years ago all in supported housing were anticipating SP coming in April 2003 SP attempted to professionalise supported housing delivery WRB does the same to general needs housing Huge parallels and similarities and the way to view and prepare for WRB changes joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
People and how they react 1 Oxford Pilot on direct payments: ....September was an interesting month as children went back to school. Some just paid three weeks instead of four as their children were going back to school and needed things for the new term. http://www.24dash.com/news/housing/2012-11-07-Direct-payment-tenants-taken-to-court Not just direct payment issue but a tenant perception issue joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
People (tenants) and reactions 2 Wirral Homes (RP) on bedroom tax There has been some confusion with some people thinking their rent is going up but that is not the case their benefits could be cut depending on their circumstances. http://www.wirralglobe.co.uk/news/10013319.Social_landlords_respond_to__bedroom _tax__concerns/ SRS landlords getting wrongly blamed for bedroom tax by tenants (risk to reputation!) joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
Tenant perceptions of reform Because HB is the ONLY benefit to be cut or capped then it sends out the message that benefit for rent is less important and therefore paying rent is a less important priority As rents increase by RPI+ and welfare benefits increase by less (CPI) and the OBC by wage inflation (even less) then the systemic flaw in the OBC appears Rent inflation is RPI+0.5% is 3.1% ; welfare benefits at CPI (2.1%) and OBC by 1.4% = more tenant anger at SRS rent increases joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
Tenant perceptions YET because direct payment of HB puts tenant in control they will make what payments they like e.g. 3 weeks not 4 when school uniforms are needed Further reduced rent payments at Christmas? Summer Holidays? Other times? Doubling of bad debt (arrears) provision is not enough More use of arrears evictions? Ground 8? Pinnock? Increasing rents by maximum to recover escalates this vicious circle joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
OBC the real elephant in the room! The OBC WILL significantly change the tenant demographic in the SRS At April 2013 will only affect 5 child+ families in SRS so seen as minor issue by RPs Yet by end of next parliament will affect 3 child+ families in the SRS and the days of full HB are over At April 2013 it will affect 2 child + families in PRS who will become homeless and looking for SRS accommodation start of changing tenant profile in SRS joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
OBC Changing tenant profile DWP September 2012 released revised figures for the numbers of households the OBC will affect Up from 56,000 at July 2012 estimate for 2013/14 to 171,000 a tripling of the numbers (44% are in the SRS and 56% in the PRS) Rising by 8,500 per month or 102,000 per year! 3 times as many SRS tenants wont get full HB than first thought 3 times as many PRS tenants will go down the eviction TA wanting SRS property to end LA full homeless duty joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
OBC impact on SRS landlords 1 How can SRS landlords plan their policies for development, arrears, allocations etc in next 5 years if they ignore the OBC? Development? Is the affordable (sic) rent model viable as the 65% average rent increase means more SRS tenants likely to be caught by OBC? When the OBC systemic flaw means in 2020 that the risk of arrears and eviction becomes all 4 child families and all 3 child families in 2025 how can SRS development take place at all? joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
OBC impact on SRS landlords 2 Allocations? RPS are duty-bound to help LAs with allocations but they must be reasonable. So can RPs refuse nominations? Will RPs become more selective and more risk-averse in who they allocate to? Is it worth RPs developing anything bigger than 3 bed properties? Or put another way are larger properties a risk too far for developing RPs? Relationship between RPs and LAs? (More STOs taken back in-house?) joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
OBC the systemic flaw 1 In simple terms the overall benefit cap (贈500 / 贈350pw) increases at a smaller rate than either welfare benefits or rent levels This means less of a residual in real terms each year goes towards housing payment (now paid by HB) More and more smaller families caught by OBC and so get less benefit to pay towards rent Risk to arrears for tenant and landlord is huge and increases each year joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
OBC the systemic flaw 2 April 2013 - 5 child family gets 贈463 in welfare benefit leaving 贈37 as maximum rent contribution 3 bed London SRS rent 贈126pw = 贈89pw shortfall 3 bed provincial rent 贈87 = 贈50pw shortfall = RISK TOO FAR FOR SRS April 2020 4 child family will get 贈456; cap will be 贈555 leaving 贈99 as max HB payment 3 bed London SRS rent 贈168 = 贈69pw shortfall = RISK TOO FAR FOR SRS LANDLORD; 3 bed provincial rent 2020 will be 贈118 SO 4 CHILD FAMILIES DONT GET FULL HB April 2025 3 child family gets 贈421 in welfare benefits leaving 贈176pw for rent from 贈597pw cap YET London 3 bed SRS rent will be 贈210pw so a 贈34pw shortfall joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
OBC SF Context? The SF figures all assume tenant will pay the rent (Christmas / School Uniform / Other) The SF figures ignore higher affordable rent units LAs will be pressuring RPs to take larger families out of temporary accommodation i.e. RPs take on higher risk of arrears households at a time when RPs will be (correctly) more risk averse How can RPs develop / allocate new properties based on 30 - 60 year projections? joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
OBC SF in 30 years? In 2043 the OBC will be 贈769pw on current figures In 2043 the 3 child family will get 贈609pw in WB leaving 贈160pw to pay for rent In 2043 the 3 bed London SRS property will be 贈397pw a shortfall or OBC cut of 贈237pw! In 2043 the 3 bed provincial SRS property will be 贈284pw a shortfall or OBC cut of 贈124pw A 2 child family will get 贈482pw in welfare benefits leaving 贈187 as max HB 2 bed SRS rent provincial will be 贈265pw a 贈78pw shortfall and a risk too far joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
Summary OBC will mean 2 child families wont get full rent and become a risk too far OBC transfers massive financial risk from central government to SRS landlords and threatens the viability of the social housing model Dont shoot the messenger go and talk WITH tenants and then talk WITH them again Revise ALL you business models in light of the OBC impact over next 30 years joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
Questions? END OF RANT (?) MADE YOU THINK AGAIN? QUESTIONS? joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood (#speyejoe) 07749 121 332
2 parent 2 child 3 bed London SRS 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 A CAP 500 515 554 597 643 683 736 792 B WB 256 267 298 332 371 404 451 489 C RENT 126 138 171 210 255 297 356 392 D TOT (B+C) 382 405 469 542 626 701 807 881 E RESIDUAL 贈118 贈110 贈85 贈45 贈17 -贈18 -贈71 -贈89 joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
2 parent 3 child London 3bed SRS 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 A CAP 500 515 554 597 643 683 736 792 B WB 324 338 377 421 469 512 570 619 C RENT 126 138 171 210 255 297 356 392 D TOT (B+C) 450 476 555 631 724 809 926 1011 E RESIDUAL 贈50 贈39 -贈1 -贈34 -贈81 -贈126 -贈190 -贈219 joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
2P/3C Provinces 3 bed SRS 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 A CAP 500 515 554 597 643 683 736 792 B WB 324 338 377 421 469 512 570 619 C RENT 86 95 121 152 188 220 267 295 D TOT (B+C) 410 433 498 563 657 732 837 914 E RESIDUAL 贈90 贈82 贈56 贈34 -贈14 -贈49 -贈101 -贈122
2P/4C London 3 bed SRS 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 A CAP 500 515 554 597 643 683 736 792 B WB 392 409 456 509 567 619 690 749 C RENT 126 138 171 210 255 297 356 392 D TOT (B+C) 518 547 627 719 822 916 1046 1141 E RESIDUAL -贈18 -贈32 -贈73 -贈122 -贈179 -贈233 -贈310 -贈349 joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
2P/4C Provinces 3 Bed SRS 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 A CAP 500 515 554 597 643 683 736 792 B WB 392 409 456 509 567 619 690 749 C RENT 86 95 121 152 188 220 267 295 D TOT (B+C) 478 504 577 661 755 839 957 1044 E RESIDUAL 贈12 贈11 -贈23 -贈64 -贈112 -贈156 -贈221 -贈252 joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
Latest DWP figures on SRS tenants affected by OBC July 2012 est. Was 44% of 56,000, Oct 2012 est. is 44% of 171,000 in Year 1 = 75240 This rises to 165,000 SRS tenants by 2015 To 389,000 SRS tenants by 2020; To 614,000 SRS tenants by 2025 To 838,000 SRS tenants by 2030; To 1.06m SRS tenants by 2035 To 1.29m SRS tenants by 2040; To 1.51m SRS tenants by 2045 Source: http://speye.wordpress.com/2012/10/18/3-times-more- tenants-hit-by-obc-next-year-dwp-figures-reveal/ joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332

More Related Content

VC4 Welfare Reform

  • 1. Welfare? No! Reform? No! Dont miss the elephant in the room joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood #speyejoe 07749 121 332
  • 2. Elephants? SRS has focused on bedroom tax, bedroom tax, bedroom tax That is inept as it only levels the playing field with PRS and LHA Other changes are far more damaging to the social housing model and the SRS is only just waking up to (some) of them - the OBC and tenant perceptions it is missing joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 3. Welfare? It is not WELFARE (benefit) changes that will happen but HOUSING BENEFIT changes and cuts HOUSING BENEFIT accounts for 62% or so of SRS income The OBC simply deducts WELFARE BENEFITS from the overall benefit cap leaving a residual amount that can be paid TOWARDS rent You cant cut my dole but you can cut my rent tenant perceptions are being ignored joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 4. Welfare ? JSA / IS or dole is the same level across the country as is DLA or any other WELFARE benefit It is already capped & the Welfare Reform Bill didnt cut or cap the level of any WELFARE benefit WELFARE reform (?) is a bigger misnomer than affordable rent or supporting people (SP) 10 years ago supported housing went through its biggest change now it is the turn of general needs social housing joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 5. Welfare? Reform? The raft of reforms are not WELFARE reforms (?) they are HOUSING BENEFIT reforms Reform means to improve? The welfare (sic) reforms (sic) benefit who exactly? The changes are just HB cuts and a (political and dogmatic) attack on the social housing model The move from bricks and mortar to people and this means tenant perceptions of reform joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 6. Impact, Impact, Impact! Overall Benefit Cap 74% public approval No family should get more in benefit than the average wage strong yet superficial argument (but unchallenged!) SRS / RP approach it wont affect us our rents are only 贈90 per week! is naive short-termism writ large OBC will fundamentally change the tenant demographic and profile in the SRS joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 7. Bricks and Mortar to People? Supported housing deals with people general needs social housing deals with bricks and mortar 10 years ago all in supported housing were anticipating SP coming in April 2003 SP attempted to professionalise supported housing delivery WRB does the same to general needs housing Huge parallels and similarities and the way to view and prepare for WRB changes joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 8. People and how they react 1 Oxford Pilot on direct payments: ....September was an interesting month as children went back to school. Some just paid three weeks instead of four as their children were going back to school and needed things for the new term. http://www.24dash.com/news/housing/2012-11-07-Direct-payment-tenants-taken-to-court Not just direct payment issue but a tenant perception issue joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 9. People (tenants) and reactions 2 Wirral Homes (RP) on bedroom tax There has been some confusion with some people thinking their rent is going up but that is not the case their benefits could be cut depending on their circumstances. http://www.wirralglobe.co.uk/news/10013319.Social_landlords_respond_to__bedroom _tax__concerns/ SRS landlords getting wrongly blamed for bedroom tax by tenants (risk to reputation!) joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 10. Tenant perceptions of reform Because HB is the ONLY benefit to be cut or capped then it sends out the message that benefit for rent is less important and therefore paying rent is a less important priority As rents increase by RPI+ and welfare benefits increase by less (CPI) and the OBC by wage inflation (even less) then the systemic flaw in the OBC appears Rent inflation is RPI+0.5% is 3.1% ; welfare benefits at CPI (2.1%) and OBC by 1.4% = more tenant anger at SRS rent increases joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 11. Tenant perceptions YET because direct payment of HB puts tenant in control they will make what payments they like e.g. 3 weeks not 4 when school uniforms are needed Further reduced rent payments at Christmas? Summer Holidays? Other times? Doubling of bad debt (arrears) provision is not enough More use of arrears evictions? Ground 8? Pinnock? Increasing rents by maximum to recover escalates this vicious circle joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 12. OBC the real elephant in the room! The OBC WILL significantly change the tenant demographic in the SRS At April 2013 will only affect 5 child+ families in SRS so seen as minor issue by RPs Yet by end of next parliament will affect 3 child+ families in the SRS and the days of full HB are over At April 2013 it will affect 2 child + families in PRS who will become homeless and looking for SRS accommodation start of changing tenant profile in SRS joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 13. OBC Changing tenant profile DWP September 2012 released revised figures for the numbers of households the OBC will affect Up from 56,000 at July 2012 estimate for 2013/14 to 171,000 a tripling of the numbers (44% are in the SRS and 56% in the PRS) Rising by 8,500 per month or 102,000 per year! 3 times as many SRS tenants wont get full HB than first thought 3 times as many PRS tenants will go down the eviction TA wanting SRS property to end LA full homeless duty joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 14. OBC impact on SRS landlords 1 How can SRS landlords plan their policies for development, arrears, allocations etc in next 5 years if they ignore the OBC? Development? Is the affordable (sic) rent model viable as the 65% average rent increase means more SRS tenants likely to be caught by OBC? When the OBC systemic flaw means in 2020 that the risk of arrears and eviction becomes all 4 child families and all 3 child families in 2025 how can SRS development take place at all? joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 15. OBC impact on SRS landlords 2 Allocations? RPS are duty-bound to help LAs with allocations but they must be reasonable. So can RPs refuse nominations? Will RPs become more selective and more risk-averse in who they allocate to? Is it worth RPs developing anything bigger than 3 bed properties? Or put another way are larger properties a risk too far for developing RPs? Relationship between RPs and LAs? (More STOs taken back in-house?) joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 16. OBC the systemic flaw 1 In simple terms the overall benefit cap (贈500 / 贈350pw) increases at a smaller rate than either welfare benefits or rent levels This means less of a residual in real terms each year goes towards housing payment (now paid by HB) More and more smaller families caught by OBC and so get less benefit to pay towards rent Risk to arrears for tenant and landlord is huge and increases each year joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 17. OBC the systemic flaw 2 April 2013 - 5 child family gets 贈463 in welfare benefit leaving 贈37 as maximum rent contribution 3 bed London SRS rent 贈126pw = 贈89pw shortfall 3 bed provincial rent 贈87 = 贈50pw shortfall = RISK TOO FAR FOR SRS April 2020 4 child family will get 贈456; cap will be 贈555 leaving 贈99 as max HB payment 3 bed London SRS rent 贈168 = 贈69pw shortfall = RISK TOO FAR FOR SRS LANDLORD; 3 bed provincial rent 2020 will be 贈118 SO 4 CHILD FAMILIES DONT GET FULL HB April 2025 3 child family gets 贈421 in welfare benefits leaving 贈176pw for rent from 贈597pw cap YET London 3 bed SRS rent will be 贈210pw so a 贈34pw shortfall joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 18. OBC SF Context? The SF figures all assume tenant will pay the rent (Christmas / School Uniform / Other) The SF figures ignore higher affordable rent units LAs will be pressuring RPs to take larger families out of temporary accommodation i.e. RPs take on higher risk of arrears households at a time when RPs will be (correctly) more risk averse How can RPs develop / allocate new properties based on 30 - 60 year projections? joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 19. OBC SF in 30 years? In 2043 the OBC will be 贈769pw on current figures In 2043 the 3 child family will get 贈609pw in WB leaving 贈160pw to pay for rent In 2043 the 3 bed London SRS property will be 贈397pw a shortfall or OBC cut of 贈237pw! In 2043 the 3 bed provincial SRS property will be 贈284pw a shortfall or OBC cut of 贈124pw A 2 child family will get 贈482pw in welfare benefits leaving 贈187 as max HB 2 bed SRS rent provincial will be 贈265pw a 贈78pw shortfall and a risk too far joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 20. Summary OBC will mean 2 child families wont get full rent and become a risk too far OBC transfers massive financial risk from central government to SRS landlords and threatens the viability of the social housing model Dont shoot the messenger go and talk WITH tenants and then talk WITH them again Revise ALL you business models in light of the OBC impact over next 30 years joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 21. Questions? END OF RANT (?) MADE YOU THINK AGAIN? QUESTIONS? joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood (#speyejoe) 07749 121 332
  • 22. 2 parent 2 child 3 bed London SRS 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 A CAP 500 515 554 597 643 683 736 792 B WB 256 267 298 332 371 404 451 489 C RENT 126 138 171 210 255 297 356 392 D TOT (B+C) 382 405 469 542 626 701 807 881 E RESIDUAL 贈118 贈110 贈85 贈45 贈17 -贈18 -贈71 -贈89 joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 23. 2 parent 3 child London 3bed SRS 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 A CAP 500 515 554 597 643 683 736 792 B WB 324 338 377 421 469 512 570 619 C RENT 126 138 171 210 255 297 356 392 D TOT (B+C) 450 476 555 631 724 809 926 1011 E RESIDUAL 贈50 贈39 -贈1 -贈34 -贈81 -贈126 -贈190 -贈219 joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 24. 2P/3C Provinces 3 bed SRS 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 A CAP 500 515 554 597 643 683 736 792 B WB 324 338 377 421 469 512 570 619 C RENT 86 95 121 152 188 220 267 295 D TOT (B+C) 410 433 498 563 657 732 837 914 E RESIDUAL 贈90 贈82 贈56 贈34 -贈14 -贈49 -贈101 -贈122
  • 25. 2P/4C London 3 bed SRS 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 A CAP 500 515 554 597 643 683 736 792 B WB 392 409 456 509 567 619 690 749 C RENT 126 138 171 210 255 297 356 392 D TOT (B+C) 518 547 627 719 822 916 1046 1141 E RESIDUAL -贈18 -贈32 -贈73 -贈122 -贈179 -贈233 -贈310 -贈349 joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 26. 2P/4C Provinces 3 Bed SRS 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 A CAP 500 515 554 597 643 683 736 792 B WB 392 409 456 509 567 619 690 749 C RENT 86 95 121 152 188 220 267 295 D TOT (B+C) 478 504 577 661 755 839 957 1044 E RESIDUAL 贈12 贈11 -贈23 -贈64 -贈112 -贈156 -贈221 -贈252 joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332
  • 27. Latest DWP figures on SRS tenants affected by OBC July 2012 est. Was 44% of 56,000, Oct 2012 est. is 44% of 171,000 in Year 1 = 75240 This rises to 165,000 SRS tenants by 2015 To 389,000 SRS tenants by 2020; To 614,000 SRS tenants by 2025 To 838,000 SRS tenants by 2030; To 1.06m SRS tenants by 2035 To 1.29m SRS tenants by 2040; To 1.51m SRS tenants by 2045 Source: http://speye.wordpress.com/2012/10/18/3-times-more- tenants-hit-by-obc-next-year-dwp-figures-reveal/ joe@hsmonline.co.uk Joe Halewood 07749 121 332