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Vietnam Logistics 2009

Duy Nguyen, Senior Associate
Duy Nguyen, Senior Associate

review vietnam logistics market

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c i m th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam Chu n b b i : Nguy n H u Duy HCMC, 11/10/2009
Xu h動 ng th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam Chi ph鱈 logistics cao l C H I L N cho th tr動 ng logistics Chi ph鱈 logistics t i Vi t Nam chi m kho ng 25% GDP ~ 22 t 担la M nm 2008, cao g p 担i so v i c叩c n動 c ph叩t tri n D ki n nm 2013, chi ph鱈 ny vo kho ng 30 t 担la M GDP (t USD) Chi ph鱈 logistics (t USD) 160 149.8 140 133.42 120 112.98 101.8 100 91.33 84.59 80 60 40 28.02 29.96 21.92 23.41 24.86 21.15 20 0 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f Ngu n :BMI, WB,TI, SCM Analysis
Xu h動 ng th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam Chi ph鱈 v n chuy n chi m tr棚n 50% trong c董 c u chi ph鱈 logistics Ngu n :Transport Intelligence, SCM Analysis
Xu h動 ng th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam Kh叩ch hng 動u ti棚n THU H P NG (lease) 叩p ng nhu c u kho
Xu h動 ng th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam C坦 s gia tng xu h動 ng thu棚 ngoi c叩c d ch v 3PL trong t動董ng lai Hi n t i Trong t動董ng lai g n Cross- V n t i qu c docking t Logistics thu Nh坦m d ch v h i m i (3PL) D ch v h i T動 v n quan, th担ng quan VMI D ch v kho Giao nh n D ch v h i b達i quan, th担ng quan Qu n l箪 TTPP Giao nh n V n t i qu c t D ch v kho V nt in i b達i a V nt in i a 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% K t qu kh o s叩t V n t i n i a, giao nh n v kho b達i l ph bi n nh t T動董ng lai c叩c c担ng ty ti p t c m r ng thu棚 ngoi C叩c c担ng ty 達 bi t n v c坦 mong mu n thu棚 ngoi c叩c d ch v logistics cao c p (3PL)
Xu h動 ng th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam Ho t ng thu棚 ngoi 3PL r t th p cho th y th tr動 ng logistics ti m nng Nm 2008, t l thu棚 ngoi 動 c t 4.4% ~ 930 tri u 担la M , t l ny b ng 50% so v i th gi i Doanh thu th tr動 ng 3PL Vi t Nam nm 2008 t kho ng 930 tri u 担la M
Xu h動 ng th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam Tng tr動 ng th tr動 ng 3PL kho ng 16% trong v嘆ng 5 nm t i
Xu h動 ng th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam Ch t l動 ng d ch v v gi叩 l y u t quy t nh ch n nh cung c p 3PL Ch t l動 ng Gi叩 Kh nng c i ti n li棚n t c Kinh nghi p Ph m v v a bn ho t ng Kh nng h tr r ng kh p kinh doanh H th ng IT ph湛 h p Lo i h狸nh doanh nghi p S a d ng c a d ch v 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 C坦 s kh叩c bi t gi a c叩c lo i h狸nh c担ng ty: MNCs: P&G, Unilever s c m nh n ph叩n cao, y棚u c u gi叩 & ch t l動董ng T動 nh但n/ c ph n: s c m nh n ph叩n th p, ch y u y棚u c u v gi叩 Nh n動 c 鱈t khi thu棚 ngoi
Xu h動 ng th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam B叩n l /FMCG l th tr動 ng ti m nng v狸 t c tng tr動 ng cao ~ 20% / nm Cao Quy m担 theo gi叩 tr B叩n l Th c ph m / u ng May m c /gi y d辿p t担/xe m叩y FMCG Th y s n Th p Ti m nng cho c叩c Th p 3PL Vi t Nam Cao Ngu n :BMI, SCM Analysis
c i m th tr動 ng b叩n l /FMCG Quy m担 th tr動 ng b叩n l nm 2008 t kho ng 34.5 t 担la Chi ph鱈 logistics cho th tr動 ng b叩n l nm 2008 動 c t 8.6 t 担la 董n hng th動 ng 動 c gom l i thay cho t nh l . Mong mu n gi m t n kho th担ng qua h th ng VMI, c担ng ngh th担ng tin v c ng t叩c Xu h動 ng gi m b t nh cung c p
c i m th tr動 ng b叩n l /FMCG Kh叩ch hng ch y u l nh ng nh b叩n l l n Vi t Nam
c i m th tr動 ng 担 t担 Quy m担 th tr動 ng 担 t担 nm 2008 t kho ng 6.67 t 担la Chi ph鱈 logistics cho th tr動 ng b叩n l nm 2008 動 c t 1.28 t 担la JIT, l p r叩p v logistics u vo 坦ng vai tr嘆 quan tr ng Ch y u l nh p linh ki n t n動 c ngoi r i l p r叩p Xu h動 ng s d ng nhi u 4PL Doanh thu (t 担la) 14.00 12.74 11.80 12.00 10.83 9.84 10.00 8.34 8.00 6.67 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f
c i m th tr動 ng 担 t担 Kh叩ch hng 担 t担 ch y u Vi t Nam
Xu h動 ng th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam Th tr動 ng c坦 ph但n t叩n cao: nhi u doanh nghi p v i th ph n nh Th ph n 10 c担ng ty ton c u l n nh t cung c p d ch v logistics H董n 800 doanh nghi p Expeditors int'l of Washington 1.2% Agility 1.3% Geodis 1.3% C.H.Robinson Worldwide 1.7% Panalpina 1.8% UPS Supply Chain Solutions 2.0% CEVA Logistics/EGL 2.0% Schenker/BAX 3.6% Kuehne + Nagel 3.8% DHL/Exel Supply Chain 7.7% Ngu n VFAS 2006 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% B c tranh t ng quan c a th gi i cung kh担ng kh叩c bi t so v i VN 10 c担ng ty logistics hng u chi n 26.3 % th ph n Trung Qu c c坦 n 18 ngn cty trong l挑nh v c logistics, kh担ng c坦 cty no chi m qu叩 2% Nguy棚n nh但n 3PL ra i mu n (th p ni棚n 80) Ro c n gia nh p th p
i th c nh tranh n動 c ngoi 10 c担ng ty hng u th gi i 達 c坦 m t t i Vi t Nam Doanh thu HO T NG T I VI T NAM X p T棚n c担ng ty Tr s nm 2008 ton Nm gia Hnh th c Nh但n h ng S VP Kh叩ch hng ch鱈nh c u (tri u USD) nh p ho t ng vi棚n DHL/Exel Supply Motorola, Proter & Gamble, 1 c 30.015 1994 100% 4 100+ Chain PMG 2 Kuehne + Nagel Th y S挑 19,000 1995 VPD 2 100+ IKEA, Harman,Nortel, Siemens 3 Schenker/BAX c 14.000 1990 Li棚n doanh 6 160 Fujitsu, Metro, Top of World CEVA 4 Anh 9,000 1995 VPD 2 20 Ford, Honda, John Deere, Korg Logistics/EGL UPS Supply Abbott, Nestle, Sony Erixsson, 5 M 5,900 1999 VPD 2 N.A Chain Solutions Toshiba Phillips Electronics, Chevron, 6 Panalpina Th y S挑 7.200 1992 Li棚n doanh 2 50+ Delphi C.H.Robinson Wal-Mart, Raymour Flanigan, 7 M 7,300 2004 VPD 1 5 Worldwide Nationbilt Inc 8 Geodis Ph叩p 5.016 1990 VPD 5 20 N.A 9 Agility Kuwait 4.900 2002 VPD 1 10 N.A Expeditors int'l of Philips, Toyota, Aarons, Largo 10 M 4.626 2004 VPD 3 20 Washington Intl Ngu n : T ng h p v ph但n t鱈ch c a SCM T動董ng lai c嘆n c坦 nhi u c叩c cty logistics n動 c ngoi u t動 vo Vi t Nam, do: Th tr動 ng ti m nng Ro c n 動 c xo叩 b do cam k t WTO
i th c nh tranh n動 c ngoi M c c nh tranh cng cao khi nhi u c担ng ty n動 c ngoi gia nh p
i th c nh tranh trong n動 c C叩c c担ng ty logistics hng u VN u 達 v ang li棚n doanh v i n動 c ngoi Nguy棚n nh但n cty Vi t Nam mu n li棚n doanh v i n動 c ngoi: N但ng cao nng l c cung c p c叩c d ch v ph c h p Ti p c n kh叩ch hng l n, n動 c ngoi

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Vietnam Logistics 2009

  • 1. c i m th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam Chu n b b i : Nguy n H u Duy HCMC, 11/10/2009
  • 2. Xu h動 ng th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam Chi ph鱈 logistics cao l C H I L N cho th tr動 ng logistics Chi ph鱈 logistics t i Vi t Nam chi m kho ng 25% GDP ~ 22 t 担la M nm 2008, cao g p 担i so v i c叩c n動 c ph叩t tri n D ki n nm 2013, chi ph鱈 ny vo kho ng 30 t 担la M GDP (t USD) Chi ph鱈 logistics (t USD) 160 149.8 140 133.42 120 112.98 101.8 100 91.33 84.59 80 60 40 28.02 29.96 21.92 23.41 24.86 21.15 20 0 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f Ngu n :BMI, WB,TI, SCM Analysis
  • 3. Xu h動 ng th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam Chi ph鱈 v n chuy n chi m tr棚n 50% trong c董 c u chi ph鱈 logistics Ngu n :Transport Intelligence, SCM Analysis
  • 4. Xu h動 ng th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam Kh叩ch hng 動u ti棚n THU H P NG (lease) 叩p ng nhu c u kho
  • 5. Xu h動 ng th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam C坦 s gia tng xu h動 ng thu棚 ngoi c叩c d ch v 3PL trong t動董ng lai Hi n t i Trong t動董ng lai g n Cross- V n t i qu c docking t Logistics thu Nh坦m d ch v h i m i (3PL) D ch v h i T動 v n quan, th担ng quan VMI D ch v kho Giao nh n D ch v h i b達i quan, th担ng quan Qu n l箪 TTPP Giao nh n V n t i qu c t D ch v kho V nt in i b達i a V nt in i a 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% K t qu kh o s叩t V n t i n i a, giao nh n v kho b達i l ph bi n nh t T動董ng lai c叩c c担ng ty ti p t c m r ng thu棚 ngoi C叩c c担ng ty 達 bi t n v c坦 mong mu n thu棚 ngoi c叩c d ch v logistics cao c p (3PL)
  • 6. Xu h動 ng th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam Ho t ng thu棚 ngoi 3PL r t th p cho th y th tr動 ng logistics ti m nng Nm 2008, t l thu棚 ngoi 動 c t 4.4% ~ 930 tri u 担la M , t l ny b ng 50% so v i th gi i Doanh thu th tr動 ng 3PL Vi t Nam nm 2008 t kho ng 930 tri u 担la M
  • 7. Xu h動 ng th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam Tng tr動 ng th tr動 ng 3PL kho ng 16% trong v嘆ng 5 nm t i
  • 8. Xu h動 ng th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam Ch t l動 ng d ch v v gi叩 l y u t quy t nh ch n nh cung c p 3PL Ch t l動 ng Gi叩 Kh nng c i ti n li棚n t c Kinh nghi p Ph m v v a bn ho t ng Kh nng h tr r ng kh p kinh doanh H th ng IT ph湛 h p Lo i h狸nh doanh nghi p S a d ng c a d ch v 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 C坦 s kh叩c bi t gi a c叩c lo i h狸nh c担ng ty: MNCs: P&G, Unilever s c m nh n ph叩n cao, y棚u c u gi叩 & ch t l動董ng T動 nh但n/ c ph n: s c m nh n ph叩n th p, ch y u y棚u c u v gi叩 Nh n動 c 鱈t khi thu棚 ngoi
  • 9. Xu h動 ng th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam B叩n l /FMCG l th tr動 ng ti m nng v狸 t c tng tr動 ng cao ~ 20% / nm Cao Quy m担 theo gi叩 tr B叩n l Th c ph m / u ng May m c /gi y d辿p t担/xe m叩y FMCG Th y s n Th p Ti m nng cho c叩c Th p 3PL Vi t Nam Cao Ngu n :BMI, SCM Analysis
  • 10. c i m th tr動 ng b叩n l /FMCG Quy m担 th tr動 ng b叩n l nm 2008 t kho ng 34.5 t 担la Chi ph鱈 logistics cho th tr動 ng b叩n l nm 2008 動 c t 8.6 t 担la 董n hng th動 ng 動 c gom l i thay cho t nh l . Mong mu n gi m t n kho th担ng qua h th ng VMI, c担ng ngh th担ng tin v c ng t叩c Xu h動 ng gi m b t nh cung c p
  • 11. c i m th tr動 ng b叩n l /FMCG Kh叩ch hng ch y u l nh ng nh b叩n l l n Vi t Nam
  • 12. c i m th tr動 ng 担 t担 Quy m担 th tr動 ng 担 t担 nm 2008 t kho ng 6.67 t 担la Chi ph鱈 logistics cho th tr動 ng b叩n l nm 2008 動 c t 1.28 t 担la JIT, l p r叩p v logistics u vo 坦ng vai tr嘆 quan tr ng Ch y u l nh p linh ki n t n動 c ngoi r i l p r叩p Xu h動 ng s d ng nhi u 4PL Doanh thu (t 担la) 14.00 12.74 11.80 12.00 10.83 9.84 10.00 8.34 8.00 6.67 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f
  • 13. c i m th tr動 ng 担 t担 Kh叩ch hng 担 t担 ch y u Vi t Nam
  • 14. Xu h動 ng th tr動 ng logistics Vi t Nam Th tr動 ng c坦 ph但n t叩n cao: nhi u doanh nghi p v i th ph n nh Th ph n 10 c担ng ty ton c u l n nh t cung c p d ch v logistics H董n 800 doanh nghi p Expeditors int'l of Washington 1.2% Agility 1.3% Geodis 1.3% C.H.Robinson Worldwide 1.7% Panalpina 1.8% UPS Supply Chain Solutions 2.0% CEVA Logistics/EGL 2.0% Schenker/BAX 3.6% Kuehne + Nagel 3.8% DHL/Exel Supply Chain 7.7% Ngu n VFAS 2006 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% B c tranh t ng quan c a th gi i cung kh担ng kh叩c bi t so v i VN 10 c担ng ty logistics hng u chi n 26.3 % th ph n Trung Qu c c坦 n 18 ngn cty trong l挑nh v c logistics, kh担ng c坦 cty no chi m qu叩 2% Nguy棚n nh但n 3PL ra i mu n (th p ni棚n 80) Ro c n gia nh p th p
  • 15. i th c nh tranh n動 c ngoi 10 c担ng ty hng u th gi i 達 c坦 m t t i Vi t Nam Doanh thu HO T NG T I VI T NAM X p T棚n c担ng ty Tr s nm 2008 ton Nm gia Hnh th c Nh但n h ng S VP Kh叩ch hng ch鱈nh c u (tri u USD) nh p ho t ng vi棚n DHL/Exel Supply Motorola, Proter & Gamble, 1 c 30.015 1994 100% 4 100+ Chain PMG 2 Kuehne + Nagel Th y S挑 19,000 1995 VPD 2 100+ IKEA, Harman,Nortel, Siemens 3 Schenker/BAX c 14.000 1990 Li棚n doanh 6 160 Fujitsu, Metro, Top of World CEVA 4 Anh 9,000 1995 VPD 2 20 Ford, Honda, John Deere, Korg Logistics/EGL UPS Supply Abbott, Nestle, Sony Erixsson, 5 M 5,900 1999 VPD 2 N.A Chain Solutions Toshiba Phillips Electronics, Chevron, 6 Panalpina Th y S挑 7.200 1992 Li棚n doanh 2 50+ Delphi C.H.Robinson Wal-Mart, Raymour Flanigan, 7 M 7,300 2004 VPD 1 5 Worldwide Nationbilt Inc 8 Geodis Ph叩p 5.016 1990 VPD 5 20 N.A 9 Agility Kuwait 4.900 2002 VPD 1 10 N.A Expeditors int'l of Philips, Toyota, Aarons, Largo 10 M 4.626 2004 VPD 3 20 Washington Intl Ngu n : T ng h p v ph但n t鱈ch c a SCM T動董ng lai c嘆n c坦 nhi u c叩c cty logistics n動 c ngoi u t動 vo Vi t Nam, do: Th tr動 ng ti m nng Ro c n 動 c xo叩 b do cam k t WTO
  • 16. i th c nh tranh n動 c ngoi M c c nh tranh cng cao khi nhi u c担ng ty n動 c ngoi gia nh p
  • 17. i th c nh tranh trong n動 c C叩c c担ng ty logistics hng u VN u 達 v ang li棚n doanh v i n動 c ngoi Nguy棚n nh但n cty Vi t Nam mu n li棚n doanh v i n動 c ngoi: N但ng cao nng l c cung c p c叩c d ch v ph c h p Ti p c n kh叩ch hng l n, n動 c ngoi