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18/10/2019 Craig Cockburn, www.craigcockburn.com @siliconglen
Hello, I’m Craig Cockburn*
www.craigcockburn.com
Twitter: @siliconglen
*Same pronunciation as Alistair, Agile Manifesto co-author.
Visualising the “Why” – Strategy and Roadmaps in context
-- or --
How to form an agile strategy and
visualise it in a complex landscape

Audience
• Anyone involved in creating a strategy
• Reviewing a strategy
• Executing any part of a strategy
• Coaching someone in strategy
• Recognising and fixing bad strategy
• At any level of the organisation
Strategy matters to all of us

What I’ll cover
1) What strategy is
2)Why THIS matters
3)A worked example
4)A VISUALISATION template
5)PRACTICES TO BUILD STRATEGY
6)KEY TAKEAWAYS
7)Any Questions

A Story of discovery
via Roman Pichler’s
ROADMAPS and Simon
Wardley’s MAPPING

Battle of Thermopalae 480BC
“Corporate strategy”: Be in the magic quadrant for territory expanders this year!
Be the leading army! Win 3 battles this year! Expand territory!
�ݺ�ߣ content: Simon Wardley

Battle of Bannockburn, 23/24 June 1314
A battle in which the Scots defeated an English army more than double their size by use of an effective strategy
Lay traps in the land.
Recognise in the landscape where the battle will likely take place
Defend ourselves using protective shiltrons
Take the high ground, this conferring an advantage of line of sight and battle attack.
Hem the English army in between the Scots army, the boggy ground and the Bannock Burn.
This caused them to break rank, lose coordination and flee homeward (to think again!)
Landscape, situational tactics, purpose. Only 2 days.
Strategy not just for multi year big spends

Culture Eats Strategy for Breakfast
Peter Drucker
COMMON MYTHS DEBUNKED

CULTURE Myths Debunked
It is your culture which helps you to implement your strategy.
Therefore The two are complimentary RATHER THAN exclusive
Drucker isn’t attributable as the source
SEE http://bit.ly/CultureStrategyQuote AND
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2017/05/23/culture-eats/
“Culture Eats Strategy for Breakfast”
- ALLEGEDLY Peter Drucker

The seven deadly sins OF CARGO CULT
1. Copying what other people do without context
Even this bridge has context!

Strategy; A COHERENT & CONTEXTUAL plan to DELIVER outcomes
OUTCOME: has lasting value IN realising THE VISION
VISION: THE DESIRED FUTURE STATE
TACTICS: supporting ACTIVITIES in the strategy which increase
the likelihood of SUCCEEs
Definitions

Vision (future state)
realised by Mission / outcomes / objectives
Outcomes delivered by Strategy
Strategy Supported by tactics
Progress Measured by key results
A “to do list” is not a strategy. Beware cargo cult
Definition CONTEXT

We’re not very good at applying military
thinking and strategy to business…
WE still have cameras.
WE still watch films.
WE still buy phones.
WE still buy toys.
….Kodak, Blockbuster, Nokia, Toys ‘R Us.

We’re not very good at applying
effective strategy to other things too…

https://www.forbes.com/sites/palomacanterogomez/2019/02/05/the-7-critical-skills-of-successful-strategic-thinkers
In a study conducted by Harvard Business Review,
97% of the 10,000 senior executives asked chose
strategy
as the most critical leadership behaviour
to their organizations’ future success
The need

By a large margin, leadership is the biggest challenge to business
agility adoption that most organizations face.
With the right mindset and associated organizational support, a
leader sets the tone for the entire organization.
Yet, often, the inverse is also true - in the absence of a motivating
leader, the organization can stagnate. Respondents to the survey
raised a lack of agile mindset, unclear or changing vision, and
limited practical support for the transformation as the top three
challenges for (and from) leaders.
Business Agility Institute report 2018
https://agilityhealthradar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/BAI-Business-Agility-Report-2018.pdf
The reality

https://medium.com/@siliconglen/agile-adoption-failure-patterns-648e98007409
Short URL: http://bit.ly/Agile-Failure-Patterns
Further READING
A Curated list of agile failure patterns from
SURVEYS
Consulting groups
Agile coaches
Newspaper articles

STRATEGY
IN AN
AGILE CONTEXT

https://www.romanpichler.com/blog/should-product-roadmaps-have-dates/
From Company vision to product backlog
From Roman Pichler,
“Strategize”
The Product Roadmap in context

Description of the environment
Forces that affect the environment
Operating
techniques and
beliefs
Context specific decisions
Why does this matter to us?
Strategy
Cycle

Strategy needs a story And people.
remember the culture & Strategy slide?
Also Half the Manifesto – Individuals… and Customer…
And it needs to be regularly updated in line with new knowledge
and changing circumstances
And not just be a to do list that sits on a SLIDE DECK for 5 years.
FREQUENTLY MISSING IN ACTION

https://human.associates/category/spaces/
Ian McLaren Wallace
winner of Excellent Innovation in Business Psychology
If this is how we
make sense of
knowledge
Then why Do we
OFTEN assume a
fixed strategy?

Devising strategy in a complex, uncertain,
evolving landscape with competing parties
OR
DEVISING STRATEGY FROM THE BREXIT CHAOS

• Leave? What sort of leave?
• Remain? How?
What are the other motives?
• Irish unionism or nationalism?
• Scottish nationalism or unionism?
• Toppling government or supporting it?
• Profit by shorting stocks or currency?
Step 1: PURPOSE

• Competing groups
• Fractured groups
• No clear majority
• Hidden private strategy
• Lack of compromise
• Lots at stake
• No precedent as reference
Landscape static –
just have to work with it
Step 2: LANDSCAPE

• This is rapidly evolving
• The clock is running down
• The government has lost its majority
• Legal action is taking place
• Propaganda / Misinformation
The climate is dynamic and alters the
effect of the landscape
Step 3: CLIMATE

Step 4: apply doctrineBrexit
representing
competing
Outcomes,
Probabilities,
Pathways and
decisions
(STRATEGY
ABSENT)
https://jonworth.eu/brexit-what-next/
11th April 2019

Doctrine: Visualise
Visualise the Brexit DIAGRAM above on its side. Time is on
the X axis going left to right. Position has meaning, the
map shows time mapped against the probability of
achieving an outcome with intermediary steps and
resultant probabilities for the outcomes you want and
the outcomes that are favourable to the competition
(not unlike business, or playing chess).

Doctrine: evaluate
The seven Brexit GOALS in the
diagram are scored in according to
alignment with outcomes you prefer

Doctrine: navigate
Evaluate the pathway options leading to the
desired outcomes and avoiding the worst
outcomes. Discover the risky points which you
need to traverse but which could also be
favourable to opponents if they go the wrong
way for you. These need particular attention.

Doctrine: plan
Using this information you can formulate a context specific
flexible strategy based on the pathways which lead to successful
outcomes and steer you away from the worst outcomes.
Proactive agile + reactive agile
TOGETHER

STEP 5: leadership
See Strategy Maps http://bit.ly/Strategy-Maps
Revoke A50
Peoples Vote
General Election
Softer Brexit
Unclear Extension
May’s Deal
No Deal Brexit
11th April 2019
Reflection points
And ACT!

SituationalContext
(landscape,climateanddoctrine)
Neutral or unknown
Tactical Advantage,
opportunity enablement,
increased capability
Advantageous to competitors,
opponents. Risks, things that slow
us down
Now Future
Time
Tactical Gains / Tactical Delivery
Tactical losses / Competitor’s delivery
IncreasingAdvantage
FavourableoutcomesUnfavourableoutcomes
Strategy map TEMPLATE
VisionCompetitor’sVision

1. Understand the present — where are we now?
2. WHAT OUTCOMES SUPPORT THE VISION? - Futurespectives
3. Plan to a realistic horizon —too deep or far is waste.
4. Connect the present to the future — primary path and
alternatives – right to left & left to right
5. Refine the model — evaluate probabilities, risks, impacts on people
and the system, who are the actors and lines of influence?
6. Regularly inspect and adapt – via reflection points/OKRs/
Heart of Agile - reflect to Improve. Have conversations
Suggested approach
More detail at http://bit.ly/Strategy-Maps

Employ Cynefin

Employ Cynefin
Do we need much
planning here? If it’s
obvious, the plan
should be very simple
Use specialist
knowledge to plan
with certainty
Requires regular review,
feedback points, appropriate
experiments, highlighting of
unknowns, risks, and
alternate pathways
In a complex world, linear
plans will be wrong!
Know the vision and the
goal, but act first. High risk,
unpredictable. Detailed
planning of limited value

Employ Cynefin
Each Reflection point in a
strategy map will correspond
to a domain in a Cynefin diagram
in order to guide how you plan
Colouring DOMAINS May HELP Respect for Cynefin dynamics needed

SituationalContext
Now Future
Time
IncreasingAdvantage
EXAMPLE

Tryingtodoagiletransformation
Now Future
Time
IncreasingAdvantage
EXAMPLE
Old job
roles
Roll out
new roles
All rolled
out
Transformed!

Now Future
Time
IncreasingAdvantage
Reality
Old job
roles
Roll out
new roles
Fear and
distrust
Entrenched
resistance
Fail

Now Future
Time
IncreasingAdvantage
Try this
Old job
roles
Pilot new
roles
Inspect &
adapt
Change
approach
Get pilot
group
All rolled
out
Different
approachExpand pilot
Potential fail

Simon Wardley Keynote
“Crossing the river by feeling the stones”
-- Quote from Deng Xiaoping–
AVAILABLE AT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IW9L1uNMCs
Wardley link

SituationalContext
Neutral or unknown
Tactical Advantage,
opportunity enablement,
increased capability
Advantageous to competitors,
opponents. Risks, things that slow
us down
Now Future
Time
Tactical Gains / Tactical Delivery
Tactical losses / Competitor’s delivery
IncreasingAdvantage
THE RIVER AND STONES

1. Wardley maps typically visualise movement in relation to
technical maturity to value Stream
2. Useful in context
3. WARDLEY MAPS AND STRATEGY MAPS CAN work together
4. Strategy maps visualise approach in a complex landscape,
therefore not always tied to technical maturity
5. Think of strategy maps are a generic way of visualising work,
like a Kanban board
WARDLEY MAP LINK

Leadership: Proactive anticipation.
Vision of meaningful outcomes.
Supporting people, innovation, culture
Agility: Responding to complexity.
Includes feedback, low cost of change.
Collaborate, Deliver, Reflect, Improve
Lean: improvement where
complicated. Includes visualisation
and elimination of waste. Flow
EFFECTIVE STRATEGY
Areas of emphasis:
Individuals, People = Circle
Waste reduction = Lean
Complexity and Feedback = Agile
Responsible Strategy = Leadership
Overlapping skills, tactics
and culture in support of
successful outcomes

SUMMARY
1. EFFECTIVE STRATEGY REQUIRES CONTEXT
2. STRATEGY IS MORE THAN JUST A TO DO LIST
3. EVERYONE CAN TAKE PART AND CONTRIBUTE
4. STRATEGY EXISTS IN AN EVOLVING LANDSCAPE
5. STRATEGY REQUIRES REGULAR ADJUSTMENTS
6. ANTICIPATING OBSTACLES AND DEAD ENDS IS USEFUL
7. STRATEGY INVOLVES AND AFFECTS PEOPLE
8. IT’S EASIER TO ALIGN WHEN WE ALL SEE THE SAME THING

The BIGGEST TAKEWAY
THERE ARE AT LEAST 12 advantages OF
having an effective visual strategy
over a simple to-do list

STRATEGY MAPSUsing this approach you have visual context of:
1. what you are doing & why you are doing it
2. Visual Representation of being on track and current SITUATION
3. Intermediate tactical goals and how to achieve them
4. MULTIPLE ROUTES TO favourable outcomes
5. How to avoid unfavourable outcomes
6. What your opponents might do
7. Unexploited opportunities
8. Timing and dependencies
9. Risks and consequences
10. ESTIMATED Probabilities
11. Pivot Points
12. everyone sharing the same view and able to provide feedback. STRATEGY AS A CONVERSATION

Strategy Maps - http://bit.ly/Strategy-Maps
Product delivery mapping - http://bit.ly/Delivery-Mapping
Human associates - https://human.associates/human-skills/human-cultural-transformation/
Simon Wardley – https://medium.com/wardleymaps
Roman Pichler - https://www.romanpichler.com/blog/elements-definition-product-strategy/
Declaration of Interdependence - http://bit.ly/Declaration-of-Interdependence
Heart of Agile - https://heartofagile.com/
Management 3.0 - https://management30.com/
Contact me: craig@siliconglen.com www.craigcockburn.com
Further Reading

THANK YOU
QUESTIONS
AND
FEEDBACK

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Visualising a context based agile strategy - 18 October 2019

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Visualising a context based agile strategy - 18 October 2019