1) Three operational researchers and an engineer from the Department of Energy and Climate Change worked with the RSPCA and DogED to develop a stock and flow model of the UK dog population to help propose meaningful welfare policies.
2) They pulled data from over 50 sources to build the model, which identified gaps in knowledge about the UK dog population and flows between owned, stray, and welfare dogs.
3) The project provided a useful experience for the team, deepening their understanding of system dynamics and its real-world applications to animal welfare issues.
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It's a dog's life: Volunteers' experience at RSPCA
1. Its a dogs life: when OR meets canine welfare
The breeding, ownership and welfare of dogs in the UK is a complex social policy
area. Without an understanding of the dog population and how it is stratified, it is
difficult to propose meaningful welfare policies. To help with this, three Operational
Researchers and an engineer from DECC have worked with RSPCA and DogED to
develop a stock and flow model of the UK dog population.
Although there has been research into the size of the dog population, nobody has
pulled all this together into a single model that everyone can use to help focus
priority issues. As a consequence, different stakeholders have varying, and
sometimes conflicting, views of how many dogs there are and their needs. Without a
consensus understanding of the population and how it is stratified, it is difficult to
propose meaningful welfare improvement policies.
In order to collect the relevant data and develop a useful model the RSPCA - UKs
leading animal welfare charity - and DogED - a social enterprise applying System
Thinking to canine welfare - have started a project with a group of three Operational
Research and one engineer from the Department of Energy and Climate Change
(DECC), namely me and my team.
We accepted the project with great enthusiasm: we liked the idea of applying OR
techniques in a Pro Bono context and of working on something different to the daily
energy-related projects at the department. Our work included building a model which
evaluates the stocks and flows of dogs within the UK and predicts the population
changes over time.
Figure 1: Stock and flow diagram developed with Vensim
Stray dogs
Dogs in welfare
Owned dogs
Owned births
Owned
deaths
Stray births
Stray deaths
Welfare
births
Welfare deaths
Owned dogs to welfare
Welfare dogs to owned
Owned dogs to stray
Stray dogs to owned
Stray dogs to welfare
Imported owned dogs
Dogs imported to
welfare
Owned dog
exports
Number of dogs
microchipped
Owner education
level re dogs
Welfare life expectancy
Owned dog life
expectancy
Stray dog life
expectancy
Space available in
welfare
Euthanasia policy
Emmigration
Number of dog
breeders
Number of puppy
farms
Funding for welfare
Welfare capacity
Demand for
dogs in UK
Number of
owned dogs
having puppies
Demand for dogs -
non-UK
Disposable income
Insurance rates
Number of
dogs lost
Number of
dogs
abandoned
Number of dogs
neutered
9.4m (23)
2009 LB: 12,340
2010 LB:10,630
est 1,250 (300
to 2130)
111,000 per
year (13)
Strays back to owner -
53,280 per year (13)
Rehomed - 9,990
per year (13)
Put to sleep/die 8,880
per year (13)
Working dogs
27,750 per year (13)
Entering welfare:
129,743 per year (1)
0.5% of welfare in
flows (27, scaled)
11.4% of outflow died (27)
LB 7142 euthanised (1)
Assume 0
Welfare dogs reunited with
owner - 12.5% of those
entering = 16,218 (1). 7.7%
of those entering (27)
Rehomed - 80.9%
of outflows (27)
69.5% of welfare
inflows (27, scaled)
30% of welfare inflows (27,
scaled) - this includes LA and
public straying dogs
11.4% of dogs per
year? (36)
25% of dogs per
year? (est from
24, 41)
12 years (34)
4% of microchipped are from Ireland,
3% from other EU, 2% from outside
EU - needs scaling up by 2% (24)
50,000 dogs imported
from Ireland per year (31)
Working dogs
to owned
greyhounds - 3,910
per year (33)
Working
dog births
Working
dog deaths
Working dog life
expectancy
Requirements for
working dogs
Working dogs to
welfareAt least 2500
police dogs
(45)
2. It involved pulling in data from a large number of journal papers and reports (we
reviewed more than 50 data sources) and attempting to corroborate these against
each other, whilst also working to identify gaps in existing knowledge. Needless to
say, this was no mean feat if you ask 10 people what a stray dog is, youll get 10
different answers!
At the start of the project we were a brand new team, having worked together for
less than three months. Therefore, the project was a great opportunity to get to know
each other outside of the work environment and to develop a strong team spirit. We
made the most of fortnightly working lunches and spent some time together during
weekends; the relaxed environment and our enthusiasm for the project always made
the work very productive and fun.
Talking about fun, the RSPCA gave us the fabulous opportunity to spend a day at
the Battersea Dogs and Cats Home, one of the biggest animal welfare centres in the
UK. There, we were treated to a tour of the home by the director of operations and
got to see the efforts that go into looking after so many animals simultaneously. It
was a great experience and at the end of the day we were all considering bringing
home a dog or a cat with us!
Figure 2: our visit to Battersea Dogs and Cats Home
However, it was not only leisure time; we also worked hard to deliver the project and
the experience was both interesting and fruitful. The work matched our skillset
closely and we all learnt something from it: we deepened our knowledge in system
dynamics and applied it on a real problem, worked with different roles and in different
contexts and, above all, learnt a lot about dogs and their welfare.
3. At the end of the project we delivered a comprehensive literature review and a
working stock and flow model prototype. We also identified many data and evidence
gaps that unfortunately mean the model results are not yet robust enough to inform
policy decisions. We therefore provided some recommendations on how to close
these gaps in the future. Based on this work, the client is now in a position to argue
the case for better data collection to inform policy making.
All in all the experience was fulfilling and we would recommend it to all OR
practitioners. The work was interesting and fun and our client was always
appreciative and respectful of our time constraints; at the end it was very satisfactory
to see that our work has been useful for a worthy project.