隆栖の蕗を療く坤肇薀鵐弃慌クリントン
- 2. シルバ`酎麼麼吶~挫距
- 6. 噫凋誘同を聞っていたら
- 7. デ`タ 誘同枠δ襠h American National Election Studies (ANES) 誘同宀奉來と佩咾隆燕議き函り{烹 噫凋 Dept of Health & Human Servicek佩の US Life Tables 2014 ┨殳{砲塙議隠デ`タによる噫凋容協
- 8. 蛍裂返隈 16定寄yIxが噫凋誘同を聞喘していたと覿 巒Sでの昨a宀Cの∀覽弔篇狠誼同方 = Σa (SでCがa嘉の繁からgHに誼た誼同方) (a嘉の繁の峠譲噫凋) この噫凋誼同方から光巒での掖澆鰉麻 xと勃洞箸鰺┐犬酉狠誘同和でxばれたはずの寄yIを麻 ANESデ`タから麻 Life Tablesから麻
- 9. Y〉狠誘同なら ヒラリ`寄yIQ伏 Figure 2: 2016 Presidential Elections: Counterfactual Electoral College Voting Outcome Notes: The ?gure shows the distribution of electoral college votes for the 2016 presidential elections between Democrat party candidate Hilary Clinton and Republican party candidate Donald Trump The yellow section represents the 3 votes for party candidates other than the major parties. Th outcome is estimated using ANES self-reported vote choice data. I allocate electoral college vote to each candidate based on the ＾winner-takes-all￣ rule for 48 states and Washington D.C. I exclud the district-level electoral votes for Maine (2 votes) and Nebraska (3 votes), as I cannot estimate th plurality winner at the granularity of congressional districts using ANES data. I also assume ther
- 10. 巒eの掖Figure 3: 2016 Presidential Elections: Counterfactual Plurality Party by State
- 11. 巒eの掖澆篁Figure 4: 2016 Presidential Elections: States where Winner was ＾Flipped￣ ペンシルベニアウィスコンシン ミシガン ミネソタ バ`ジニア ネバタ
- 12. 巒e誼同楕(酎麼)の篁 al Election: Di?erence between Weighted and Actual Vote (a) Democrats
- 13. 嘘瘁には弊旗g羨 Table 1: 2016 Presidential Elections: Voting Behavior by Generations (All Parties) Generations Democrats Republicans Others 18-29 49.13 43.75 7.12 30-39 47.93 45.62 6.45 40-49 46.06 48.79 5.15 50-59 45.39 49.95 4.66 60-69 45.27 51.91 2.81 70-79 38.66 58.66 2.68 80-90 36.9 62.62 .48 Notes: The table shows the breakdown of vote proportions for all parties by age group for the presidential election. The ￣Others￣ category includes any Independent or other party candidate choice. The vote proportions are estimated using weighted vote counts from the ANES 2016 Time Series data set. Respondents who did not register to vote, cast a ballot, or report their age, were dropped. Those who had inappropriate or missing answers for vote choice were also dropped. 酎麼は 楳富定に 繁 慌才は 嶄互定に 繁