Wave Data Key Generic Findings March 2010
- 1. Generics and Generic Pricing Charles Joynson
- 2. Topics to be covered Data Sources Price Decay Price Bounces Seasonality Generic Company Strategy Generic Data Exchange Rate Brand Equalisation Retail vs. Dispensing Forecasting Evergreening
- 3. Data Sources
- 4. Internet Suppliers Generic Manufacturers Wholesalers Ethical Manufacturers Importers Dispensing GPs Retail Pharmacy
- 6. Price Decay
- 19. Other Products
- 20. Price Bounces
- 26. Seasonality
- 28. Seasonality - Omeprazole Oct 02- Sep 06
- 29. Seasonality - Ciprofloxacin Jan 03 – Dec 05
- 30. Seasonality - Levothyroxine Oct 00-Sep 06
- 31. Seasonality - Atenolol Oct 00-Sep 06 Jan 01- Dec 05
- 32. Seasonality - Simvastatin Oct 03-Sep 06
- 33. Seasonality - Lisinopril Jan 01 – Dec 05
- 43. Generic Data
- 47. Exchange Rate
- 57. Forecasting
- 58. How do companies forecast generic prices? Time Price Generic Launch
- 59. Some just react to market changes
- 60. Fitting trends to prices
- 61. But reality was different
- 62. Same Therapeutic Cat Same Therapeutic Category, But Different Decay Rates Selective Serotonin Re-Uptake Inhibitors
- 63. Same Market Value Same Value, But Different Decay Rates £450,000 - £550,000
- 64. Same molecule Same Molecule But No Uniformity Fluconazole Caps
- 65. Patterns & Relationships £ ? Generic Price Volume Market Share Value Brand Generic Spilt No of Manufacturers Reimbursement
- 66. Statisticians found each product can be modelled
- 67. Multiple models were produced, one for each product
- 68. Each with its own formula
- 69. Statistical Models 2005, 2007 & 2008 Linear dynamic models One for ourselves and two for clients
- 73. Evergreening
- 77. Many Thanks
Editor's Notes
- #59: How do companies set or predict prices. What would you do?
- #60: A guess could be based on a particular competitor, or a key supplier, or an average, but it is still at heart a guess
- #61: Trend lines can be added to what data you have, but often more than one line can be fitted to the same trend, and if you only have a few months of post patent generic prices, many trends could be fitted to the same data – each one a guess.
- #62: The price went up, as it was following a hidden pattern, not immediately obvious to the uninformed
- #63: Trend lines can be added to what data you have, but often more than one line can be fitted to the same trend, and if you only have a few months of post patent generic prices, many trends could be fitted to the same data – each one a guess.
- #64: Trend lines can be added to what data you have, but often more than one line can be fitted to the same trend, and if you only have a few months of post patent generic prices, many trends could be fitted to the same data – each one a guess.
- #65: But sometimes they don't
- #67: Each could be connected with the underlying factors
- #68: Even the rises in price due to availability and price could be predicted
- #69: Even the rises in price due to availability and price could be predicted
- #70: The range of decline curves possible is very wide