際際滷

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Meeting at Symbister Hall
Andrea Manson - Treasurer
James Titcomb  Vice Chair
Duncan Simpson  Membership Secretary
21st
December 2015
2
Who Is Wir Shetland?
 A group of Shetland residents and expats
committed to improving Shetlands future.
 PURPOSE/MISSION: To protect the long term
interests of Shetlanders by achieving self-
governing autonomy, in line with the
democratic wishes of Shetland residents.
 Launched 14th October, Currently 357
members.
3
Who Is Wir Shetland
John Tulloch - Chair
James Titcomb - Vice Chair
Kathy Greaves - Secretary
Andrea Manson  Treasurer
Duncan Simpson  Membership Secretary
Committee members  Ali Inkster, Steven Jarmson
A diverse range of backgrounds with a single unifying policy of
achieving the best possible constitutional position for
Shetland.
4
What is Wir Shetland?
 Multi-party campaign group
 Members of all parties welcome to join
 Aim  achieve British Overseas Territory, or
similar, status for Shetland
 Approach  initially by engaging with parties
and candidates for parliamentary and council
seats to establish what progress, if any, can be
made that way.
 Registering as a party and fielding our own
candidates will be considered if necessary.
5
Layers of Government
 European Union (Brussels)
 UK Government (Westminster)
 Scottish Government (Hollyrood)
 Shetlands Island Council (Lerwick)
 Whalsay Comunity Council (Symbister)
 How effective is this for Whalsay?
6
Fishing grounds lost to the EU
1970  First rules drawn up a few hours before
official reception of applications to join received
from Britain, Ireland, Denmark and Norway.
Originally UK refused, but gave in at the end of
1971 and signed 22nd Jan 1972. Giving away 4/5
th
of all fish in western Europe1
Equal access to all EU waters for EU vessels
1: Wikipedia - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Fisheries_Policy
7
Shetlands Exclusive Economic Zone
8
Uk Government
 Economy, Finance, Defense, Foreign Affairs,
etc.
 Remote, out of touch, English law
 Impacts: taxation, duty, EU membership,
sovereignty issues eg oil and gas, territorial
waters, Crown Estates.
 Hundreds of billions to UK Treasury over 40
years
 Meanwhile, SIC closing country schools
9
Scottish Government

Provides government funding to Scottish Councils
 2008 agreement  COSLA to distribute funding
equitably by formula

2014/15 Shetland education funding
 SIC budgeted expenditure: 贈48.5M
 Funding: 贈29M
 Shortfall: 贈19.5M

SIC forced to cut education spending 20 percent
 Shortfall: still 贈10M+, funded from SIC oil reserves
10
Scottish Government
 Cumulative funding shortfall 2008-15 (7yr)
 Minimum 7x10M = 贈70M
 Maximum 7x10M = 贈137M
 Median = 贈104M since 2008
 This shortfall has to be recovered either from
Wir reserves or more cuts.
11
Shetland Islands Council
 Government funding reducing, must cut
services.
 School rolls falling, so close schools to save
cost.
 SIC joined Our Islands, Our Future (2013)
 OIOF  Please Sir, can we have some more?
 Scottish Government - Consultation - of ALL
the islands, thats fair.
 Actually, thats kicking the can down the road
12
Shetland Economy (SIC 2010 report)
 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) = 贈1.1billion pa
 Value Added (pay plus profits) = 贈485million pa
 Exports = 贈496million pa
 Imports = 贈365million pa
 Balance of Trade = 贈+131million pa


 Total 40yr tax revenue (Shetland oil) = 贈100-
150bn
13
Wir Shetland
 Billions going out of Shetland annually
 School roles have been falling indicating
depopulation
 Closing schools just makes it worse
 First - we must investigate Depopulation is it
really happening? If so why?
 Second  Act to reverse the decline.
 Absolute last resort to consider school future.
Presumption against closure
14
Depopulation
Lack of modern communications, transport,
facilities & services  Centralisation
Fewer people  less spend
Downward spiral is produced.
Many remote communities are suffering
With Decent roads, Fast Broadband, modern
ferries, Tunnels & Bridges only where the
population demands them, communities CAN
thrive.
15
Ferries
16
Central government funding of Ferries
13-14 14-15 15-16
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Clyde and Hebrides
Northern Isles
17
How to finance it?
UK has mineral rights, EU has fishing, Shetland
has none.
UK has specific derogation from EU law allowing
the quota system to operate.
Assume Shetland gains Autonomy (BOT status)
Shetland gains the Shetland portion of the UK
EEZ
Full control of fishing, aquaculture, minerals,
taxation & licensing in the entire Shetland EEZ.
18
Exchequer Balance
 The SIC Input Output report for 2010-2011
states:-
 The Shetland economy is worth over 贈1Billion annually
 The Exchequer Balance is the difference between total
government revenue raised in Shetland against total
government expenditure. The report calculates that, in 2010/11,
Shetland generated a positive Exchequer Balance of 贈82 million
 Total revenue raised by the government in Shetland in 2010-11
was 贈219 million
 In 2016 the SIC is due to receive 贈87.7 million (a
cut of 4.5%
19
Offshore Oil and Gas
 Northern North Sea plus West of Shetland
Workforce was 20,000 in 2014 (source: UK Oil
and Gas UK)
 Average worker is paying 贈10,000pa income
tax
 Revenue to Shetland = 贈200Mpa;
 For conservative estimate, 贈200Mpa divide by
2 = 贈100Mpa
 licensing, corporation tax, etc.,
20
Gains and Losses
 Loss  Scottish government funding - 贈80Mpa
 Gain  Exchequer Balance - 贈82Mpa (2010)
 Gain  Offshore employee taxation ~ 贈100Mpa
 Gain  Oil Company taxes ~ 贈50-贈200Mpa
贈0.5B  贈2.2B for whole UK, * 10% (conservative estimate for
Shetland) UKOG predicted figures for 2014  2021
 Gain  tens of millions from expanded fishing
rights.
21
Net fiscal gain from Autonomy
Crude estimation based on previous slide.
Net Gain = 贈(82-80+100+50+20)Mpa
Net Gain = 贈172Mpa
22
Why would they let us go?
 UN right to self determination
 Scottish independence precedent
 50% + 1 is enough to secure independence.
 In the case of a second Scottish referendum.
 Better to negotiate with Shetland.
 Will loose all access to an independent Scotland.
 Negotiate position over EEZ  we demand it all, but could
share access.
 Defense.
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Whalsay 際際滷s

  • 1. Meeting at Symbister Hall Andrea Manson - Treasurer James Titcomb Vice Chair Duncan Simpson Membership Secretary 21st December 2015
  • 2. 2 Who Is Wir Shetland? A group of Shetland residents and expats committed to improving Shetlands future. PURPOSE/MISSION: To protect the long term interests of Shetlanders by achieving self- governing autonomy, in line with the democratic wishes of Shetland residents. Launched 14th October, Currently 357 members.
  • 3. 3 Who Is Wir Shetland John Tulloch - Chair James Titcomb - Vice Chair Kathy Greaves - Secretary Andrea Manson Treasurer Duncan Simpson Membership Secretary Committee members Ali Inkster, Steven Jarmson A diverse range of backgrounds with a single unifying policy of achieving the best possible constitutional position for Shetland.
  • 4. 4 What is Wir Shetland? Multi-party campaign group Members of all parties welcome to join Aim achieve British Overseas Territory, or similar, status for Shetland Approach initially by engaging with parties and candidates for parliamentary and council seats to establish what progress, if any, can be made that way. Registering as a party and fielding our own candidates will be considered if necessary.
  • 5. 5 Layers of Government European Union (Brussels) UK Government (Westminster) Scottish Government (Hollyrood) Shetlands Island Council (Lerwick) Whalsay Comunity Council (Symbister) How effective is this for Whalsay?
  • 6. 6 Fishing grounds lost to the EU 1970 First rules drawn up a few hours before official reception of applications to join received from Britain, Ireland, Denmark and Norway. Originally UK refused, but gave in at the end of 1971 and signed 22nd Jan 1972. Giving away 4/5 th of all fish in western Europe1 Equal access to all EU waters for EU vessels 1: Wikipedia - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Fisheries_Policy
  • 8. 8 Uk Government Economy, Finance, Defense, Foreign Affairs, etc. Remote, out of touch, English law Impacts: taxation, duty, EU membership, sovereignty issues eg oil and gas, territorial waters, Crown Estates. Hundreds of billions to UK Treasury over 40 years Meanwhile, SIC closing country schools
  • 9. 9 Scottish Government Provides government funding to Scottish Councils 2008 agreement COSLA to distribute funding equitably by formula 2014/15 Shetland education funding SIC budgeted expenditure: 贈48.5M Funding: 贈29M Shortfall: 贈19.5M SIC forced to cut education spending 20 percent Shortfall: still 贈10M+, funded from SIC oil reserves
  • 10. 10 Scottish Government Cumulative funding shortfall 2008-15 (7yr) Minimum 7x10M = 贈70M Maximum 7x10M = 贈137M Median = 贈104M since 2008 This shortfall has to be recovered either from Wir reserves or more cuts.
  • 11. 11 Shetland Islands Council Government funding reducing, must cut services. School rolls falling, so close schools to save cost. SIC joined Our Islands, Our Future (2013) OIOF Please Sir, can we have some more? Scottish Government - Consultation - of ALL the islands, thats fair. Actually, thats kicking the can down the road
  • 12. 12 Shetland Economy (SIC 2010 report) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) = 贈1.1billion pa Value Added (pay plus profits) = 贈485million pa Exports = 贈496million pa Imports = 贈365million pa Balance of Trade = 贈+131million pa Total 40yr tax revenue (Shetland oil) = 贈100- 150bn
  • 13. 13 Wir Shetland Billions going out of Shetland annually School roles have been falling indicating depopulation Closing schools just makes it worse First - we must investigate Depopulation is it really happening? If so why? Second Act to reverse the decline. Absolute last resort to consider school future. Presumption against closure
  • 14. 14 Depopulation Lack of modern communications, transport, facilities & services Centralisation Fewer people less spend Downward spiral is produced. Many remote communities are suffering With Decent roads, Fast Broadband, modern ferries, Tunnels & Bridges only where the population demands them, communities CAN thrive.
  • 16. 16 Central government funding of Ferries 13-14 14-15 15-16 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Clyde and Hebrides Northern Isles
  • 17. 17 How to finance it? UK has mineral rights, EU has fishing, Shetland has none. UK has specific derogation from EU law allowing the quota system to operate. Assume Shetland gains Autonomy (BOT status) Shetland gains the Shetland portion of the UK EEZ Full control of fishing, aquaculture, minerals, taxation & licensing in the entire Shetland EEZ.
  • 18. 18 Exchequer Balance The SIC Input Output report for 2010-2011 states:- The Shetland economy is worth over 贈1Billion annually The Exchequer Balance is the difference between total government revenue raised in Shetland against total government expenditure. The report calculates that, in 2010/11, Shetland generated a positive Exchequer Balance of 贈82 million Total revenue raised by the government in Shetland in 2010-11 was 贈219 million In 2016 the SIC is due to receive 贈87.7 million (a cut of 4.5%
  • 19. 19 Offshore Oil and Gas Northern North Sea plus West of Shetland Workforce was 20,000 in 2014 (source: UK Oil and Gas UK) Average worker is paying 贈10,000pa income tax Revenue to Shetland = 贈200Mpa; For conservative estimate, 贈200Mpa divide by 2 = 贈100Mpa licensing, corporation tax, etc.,
  • 20. 20 Gains and Losses Loss Scottish government funding - 贈80Mpa Gain Exchequer Balance - 贈82Mpa (2010) Gain Offshore employee taxation ~ 贈100Mpa Gain Oil Company taxes ~ 贈50-贈200Mpa 贈0.5B 贈2.2B for whole UK, * 10% (conservative estimate for Shetland) UKOG predicted figures for 2014 2021 Gain tens of millions from expanded fishing rights.
  • 21. 21 Net fiscal gain from Autonomy Crude estimation based on previous slide. Net Gain = 贈(82-80+100+50+20)Mpa Net Gain = 贈172Mpa
  • 22. 22 Why would they let us go? UN right to self determination Scottish independence precedent 50% + 1 is enough to secure independence. In the case of a second Scottish referendum. Better to negotiate with Shetland. Will loose all access to an independent Scotland. Negotiate position over EEZ we demand it all, but could share access. Defense.