What To Watch

Nov 6, 2012Download as PPTX, PDF0 likes263 views

The document analyzes polling data and key states in the 2012 presidential election between Obama and Romney. It shows Obama leading in important swing states like Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. Romney's path to victory requires winning all of these states. The document also identifies key Senate races and shows Democrats defending more seats than Republicans in 2012.

Who’s winning the middle?

Segment Obama Romney
Region East 54% 40%
*Midwest 50% 45%
South 41% 54%
West 48% 47%
Age 18-29 59% 36%
30-49 48% 47%
50-64 46% 49%
65+ 40% 56%
Education HS grad or less 49% 44%
Some college 46% 50%
College grad+ 43% 53%
Postgraduate 54% 42%
Income < $36,000 56% 38%
$36,000-$89,999 46% 51%
$90,000+ 44% 52%
Party ID Democrat 93% 5%
Independent 44% 46%
Republican 5% 94%

Source: Gallup. October 8-28, 2012. 3

Key Electoral States

Tier 1 states to watch: Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Colorado
Tier 2 states to watch: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania,
Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada
Tier 3 states to watch: Arizona, Minnesota

Governor Romney has a narrow path to victory. Beyond the
states Governor Romney is likely to win, he MUST win Virginia,
Ohio, Florida and Colorado.
Less likely alternate scenarios:
– ROMNEY WINS - loses Ohio, but wins Iowa, Wisconsin and Colorado
– ROMNEY LOSES - wins his MUST win states, but unexpectedly loses Arizona

4

Key Counties for President Obama

The following counties represent the biggest changes in vote gains for President
Obama in 2008 relative to 2004 and serve as points of comparison for the strength
of President Obama’s ground game in 2012.

Republican Democrat Total Swing Swing as
Key Counties (State) Vote Change Vote Change GOP to DEM % of Total
04-08 04-08 04-08 State D Gain

Franklin (OH) -18,767 48,908 67,675 18%

Hamilton (OH) -27,086 25,534 52,620 14%

Miami-Dade (FL) -544 90,099 90,643 15%

Orange (FL) -5,707 79,655 85,362 14%

Jefferson (CO) -11,353 28,462 39,815 13%

Denver (CO) -9,677 29,364 39,041 13%

5

Most Likely Paths to Victory

Gov. Romney’s Math President Obama’s Math

States EVs Total States EVs Total

Likely Romney 159 159 Likely Obama 165 165

Lean Romney +51 210 Lean Obama +67 232

OH, VA +31 241 WI, OH, VA +41 273

FL, CO +38 279

6

Lining up the states

Obama Romney
Likely Lean Toss up Lean Likely
• District of Columbia (3) • New Jersey (14) • New Mexico (5) • Arizona (11) • Utah (6)
• Vermont (3) • Michigan (16) • Iowa (6) • Indiana (11) • Wyoming (3)
• Hawaii (4) • Pennsylvania (20) • Wisconsin (10) • North Carolina (15) • Oklahoma (7)
• Massachusetts (11) • Minnesota (10) • Nevada (6) • Missouri (10) • Idaho (4)
• Rhode Island (4) • Ohio (18) • New Hampshire (4) • Alabama (9)
• New York (29) • Virginia (13) • Nebraska (5)
• Illinois (20) • Florida (29) • Alaska (3)
• California (55) • Colorado (9) • Kansas (6)
• Delaware (3) • Kentucky (8)
• Connecticut (7) • Louisiana (8)
• Maryland (10) • Texas (38)
• Maine (4) • North Dakota (3)
• Washington (12) • Mississippi (6)
• Oregon (7) • Tennessee (11)
• South Dakota (3)
• Arkansas (6)
• West Virginia (5)
• South Carolina (9)
• Georgia (16)
• Montana (3)

Total= 172 Total= 60 Total= 45/51 Total= 51 Total= 159

277 261
7

Key states by poll closing times
Bad News for Obama Good News for Romney
Lose Win
VA
7:00 13
FL
29
OH
18
7:30 OH
18

P MI
A2 16 8:00 NH-4
0 MO
10
WI
CO 10 9:00
9 CO
9
IA
6 10:00
NV
6

Polls Close All times in EST8

2012 Senate Elections

Democrats - 23 seats at stake
Solid D (8) Likely D (4) Lean D (5) Toss up (5) Lean R (1) Likely R Solid R
Feinstein (CA) Stabenow (MI) Nelson (FL) Tester (MT) Nelson* (NE)
Carper (DE) McCaskill (MO) HI (Akaka) ND (Conrad)
Cardin (MD) Menendez (NJ) NM (Bingaman) VA (Webb)
Klobuchar (MN) Manchin (WV) Brown (OH) WI (Kohl)
Gillibrand (NY) Casey (PA) CT (Lieberman)
Whitehouse (RI)
Cantwell (WA)
Sanders (VT)

Republicans - 10 seats at stake
Solid D Likely D Lean D Toss up (5) Lean R Likely R Solid R (5)
AZ (Kyl) Wicker (MS)
IN (Lugar) Corker (TN)
ME (Snowe) TX (Hutchison)
Brown (MA) Hatch (UT)
Heller (NV) Barrasso (WY)

Source: Cook Political Report. 9

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What To Watch

1. What to Watch

2. Who’s winning the middle? Segment Obama Romney Region East 54% 40% *Midwest 50% 45% South 41% 54% West 48% 47% Age 18-29 59% 36% 30-49 48% 47% 50-64 46% 49% 65+ 40% 56% Education HS grad or less 49% 44% Some college 46% 50% College grad+ 43% 53% Postgraduate 54% 42% Income < $36,000 56% 38% $36,000-$89,999 46% 51% $90,000+ 44% 52% Party ID Democrat 93% 5% Independent 44% 46% Republican 5% 94% Source: Gallup. October 8-28, 2012. 3

3. Key Electoral States Tier 1 states to watch: Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Colorado Tier 2 states to watch: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada Tier 3 states to watch: Arizona, Minnesota Governor Romney has a narrow path to victory. Beyond the states Governor Romney is likely to win, he MUST win Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Colorado. Less likely alternate scenarios: – ROMNEY WINS - loses Ohio, but wins Iowa, Wisconsin and Colorado – ROMNEY LOSES - wins his MUST win states, but unexpectedly loses Arizona 4

4. Key Counties for President Obama The following counties represent the biggest changes in vote gains for President Obama in 2008 relative to 2004 and serve as points of comparison for the strength of President Obama’s ground game in 2012. Republican Democrat Total Swing Swing as Key Counties (State) Vote Change Vote Change GOP to DEM % of Total 04-08 04-08 04-08 State D Gain Franklin (OH) -18,767 48,908 67,675 18% Hamilton (OH) -27,086 25,534 52,620 14% Miami-Dade (FL) -544 90,099 90,643 15% Orange (FL) -5,707 79,655 85,362 14% Jefferson (CO) -11,353 28,462 39,815 13% Denver (CO) -9,677 29,364 39,041 13% 5

5. Most Likely Paths to Victory Gov. Romney’s Math President Obama’s Math States EVs Total States EVs Total Likely Romney 159 159 Likely Obama 165 165 Lean Romney +51 210 Lean Obama +67 232 OH, VA +31 241 WI, OH, VA +41 273 FL, CO +38 279 6

6. Lining up the states Obama Romney Likely Lean Toss up Lean Likely • District of Columbia (3) • New Jersey (14) • New Mexico (5) • Arizona (11) • Utah (6) • Vermont (3) • Michigan (16) • Iowa (6) • Indiana (11) • Wyoming (3) • Hawaii (4) • Pennsylvania (20) • Wisconsin (10) • North Carolina (15) • Oklahoma (7) • Massachusetts (11) • Minnesota (10) • Nevada (6) • Missouri (10) • Idaho (4) • Rhode Island (4) • Ohio (18) • New Hampshire (4) • Alabama (9) • New York (29) • Virginia (13) • Nebraska (5) • Illinois (20) • Florida (29) • Alaska (3) • California (55) • Colorado (9) • Kansas (6) • Delaware (3) • Kentucky (8) • Connecticut (7) • Louisiana (8) • Maryland (10) • Texas (38) • Maine (4) • North Dakota (3) • Washington (12) • Mississippi (6) • Oregon (7) • Tennessee (11) • South Dakota (3) • Arkansas (6) • West Virginia (5) • South Carolina (9) • Georgia (16) • Montana (3) Total= 172 Total= 60 Total= 45/51 Total= 51 Total= 159 277 261 7

7. Key states by poll closing times Bad News for Obama Good News for Romney Lose Win VA 7:00 13 FL 29 OH 18 7:30 OH 18 P MI A2 16 8:00 NH-4 0 MO 10 WI CO 10 9:00 9 CO 9 IA 6 10:00 NV 6 Polls Close All times in EST8

8. 2012 Senate Elections Democrats - 23 seats at stake Solid D (8) Likely D (4) Lean D (5) Toss up (5) Lean R (1) Likely R Solid R Feinstein (CA) Stabenow (MI) Nelson (FL) Tester (MT) Nelson* (NE) Carper (DE) McCaskill (MO) HI (Akaka) ND (Conrad) Cardin (MD) Menendez (NJ) NM (Bingaman) VA (Webb) Klobuchar (MN) Manchin (WV) Brown (OH) WI (Kohl) Gillibrand (NY) Casey (PA) CT (Lieberman) Whitehouse (RI) Cantwell (WA) Sanders (VT) Republicans - 10 seats at stake Solid D Likely D Lean D Toss up (5) Lean R Likely R Solid R (5) AZ (Kyl) Wicker (MS) IN (Lugar) Corker (TN) ME (Snowe) TX (Hutchison) Brown (MA) Hatch (UT) Heller (NV) Barrasso (WY) Source: Cook Political Report. 9

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