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What will be the next container shipping company to fail?

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Gianluca D'Orsi

The document contains financial data for container shipping companies from 2015 to 2016, including net sales, earnings, assets, liabilities, and calculated Z-scores. The Z-score is a metric used to predict the likelihood of bankruptcy, with scores below 1.81 indicating distress. In 2015, Hanjin Shipping and Hyundai Merchant Marine had Z-scores below this threshold, suggesting they were the most likely to fail. In 2016, Zim and China Shipping Container Lines fell below 1.81, indicating they may be the next container shipping companies to experience bankruptcy.

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Z-score of container shipping companies (2015) Company Period 2015 Unit Net Sales EBIT Total Assets Current Assets Book Value of Equity Total Liabilities Current Liabilities Retained Earnings Z-SCORE AP Moller Maersk 3Q million US$ 31.183 4.566 64.684 11.106 38.642 26.042 8.918 34.948 2,40 CMA CGM 3Q million US$ 12.101 888 14.062 4.664 5.452 8.610 3.795 4.617 1,98 OOIL 2Q million US$ 3.044 271 9.973 3.161 4.839 5.135 1.233 4.776 1,86 K Line 2Q million Yen 668 19 1.221 455 462 759 253 261 1,46 Matson 3Q million US$ 1.390 76 1.737 348 431 1.306 298 163 1,31 Hapag Lloyd Holding 3Q milion Euro 6.809 349 10.750 1.438 4.673 6.077 2.265 2.445 1,43 China Shipping Container Lines 2Q milion RMB 15.991 216 54.112 12.212 24.895 29.216 12.883 13.127 1,14 Wan Hai 3Q million NT$ 48.930 3.804 81.544 31.224 35.966 45.577 19.297 12.005 1,61 Evergreen Marine Corporation 3Q million NT$ 103.141 475- 193.789 51.960 66.485 127.304 40.440 15.449 1,02 MOL group 2Q million Yen 905 8 2.514 469 874 1.640 450 529 0,99 NOL 3Q million US$ 4.105 7- 7.104 1.052 2.543 4.562 1.762 817 0,95 Cosco 2Q milion RMB 29.928 2.863 155.136 56.131 45.364 109.772 37.727 15.950 0,79 Yang Ming 3Q million NT$ 97.648 2.977- 149.677 34.190 32.210 117.468 44.201 3.496- 0,64 Hanjin Shipping 3Q billion Won 6.075 225 8.286 1.268 1.052 7.233 4.110 2.279- 0,11 failed Hyundai Merchant Marine 3Q million Won 4.402 145- 6.959 1.478 644 6.314 3.508 1.655- -0,06 Zim 2Q million US$ 1.555 81 2.095 735 98 1.997 732 1.707- -0,24 Z-score of container shipping companies (2016) Company Period 2016 Unit Net Sales EBIT Total Assets Current Assets Book Value of Equity Total Liabilities Current Liabilities Retained Earnings Z-SCORE AP Moller Maersk 3Q million US$ 26.577 1.951 63.445 11.089 35.209 28.233 9.400 31.455 1,99 OOIL 2Q million US$ 2.560 18- 9.419 2.651 4.688 4.731 1.228 4.625 1,73 Wan Hai 3Q million NT$ 42.461 1.006 75.068 28.426 33.062 42.005 17.289 9.406 1,44 Hapag Lloyd Holding 3Q milion Euro 5.713 26 10.593 1.420 4.725 5.864 2.392 2.913 1,31 Matson 3Q million US$ 1.422 61 2.073 310 459 1.323 290 184 1,13 CMA CGM 3Q million US$ 11.403 192- 19.849 4.885 4.907 14.942 7.006 5.093 0,97 K Line 2Q million Yen 491 26- 1.050 229 306 744 227 143 0,83 MOL group 2Q million Yen 713 2- 2.103 456 458 1.572 463 354 0,74 Evergreen Marine Corporation 3Q million NT$ 90.272 7.075- 185.836 50.943 52.578 133.257 39.097 6.249 0,72 Cosco 3Q million US$ 2.147 150 10.277 7.812 956 9.320 5.767 68 0,57 NOL 1Q million US$ 1.138 4 6.674 814 2.416 4.256 1.618 616 0,50 Hyundai Merchant Marine 3Q million Won 3.313 645- 4.415 928 1.539 2.873 933 764- 0,35 China Shipping Container Lines 2Q milion RMB 8.376 81 101.293 23.185 13.818 87.146 42.875 2.133 -0,02 Zim 2Q million US$ 1.242 71- 1.778 585 62- 1.841 656 1.858- -0,96 X1 = Working Capital / Total Assets X4 = Market Value of Equity / Total Liabilities X2 = Retained Earnings / Total Assets X5 = Sales / Total Assets X3 = Earnings Before Interest and Taxes / Total Assets Altman Z-score bankruptcy model: Z = 1.2X1 + 1.4X2 + 3.3X3 + 0.6X4 + .999X5 Zones of Discrimination: Z > 2.99 -Safe Zone 1.81 < Z < 2.99 -Gray Zone Z < 1.81 -Distress Zone by Dr. Gianluca D'Orsi What will be the next container shipping company to fail?
What will be the next container shipping company to fail?
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What will be the next container shipping company to fail?
Ocean Alliances OOCL-CMA CGM marriage?....... by Dr. Gianluca D'Orsi The strategy of the container shipping companies to the crisis Break even point slot exchange vessel sharing slot purchase slot charter

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What will be the next container shipping company to fail?

  • 1. Z-score of container shipping companies (2015) Company Period 2015 Unit Net Sales EBIT Total Assets Current Assets Book Value of Equity Total Liabilities Current Liabilities Retained Earnings Z-SCORE AP Moller Maersk 3Q million US$ 31.183 4.566 64.684 11.106 38.642 26.042 8.918 34.948 2,40 CMA CGM 3Q million US$ 12.101 888 14.062 4.664 5.452 8.610 3.795 4.617 1,98 OOIL 2Q million US$ 3.044 271 9.973 3.161 4.839 5.135 1.233 4.776 1,86 K Line 2Q million Yen 668 19 1.221 455 462 759 253 261 1,46 Matson 3Q million US$ 1.390 76 1.737 348 431 1.306 298 163 1,31 Hapag Lloyd Holding 3Q milion Euro 6.809 349 10.750 1.438 4.673 6.077 2.265 2.445 1,43 China Shipping Container Lines 2Q milion RMB 15.991 216 54.112 12.212 24.895 29.216 12.883 13.127 1,14 Wan Hai 3Q million NT$ 48.930 3.804 81.544 31.224 35.966 45.577 19.297 12.005 1,61 Evergreen Marine Corporation 3Q million NT$ 103.141 475- 193.789 51.960 66.485 127.304 40.440 15.449 1,02 MOL group 2Q million Yen 905 8 2.514 469 874 1.640 450 529 0,99 NOL 3Q million US$ 4.105 7- 7.104 1.052 2.543 4.562 1.762 817 0,95 Cosco 2Q milion RMB 29.928 2.863 155.136 56.131 45.364 109.772 37.727 15.950 0,79 Yang Ming 3Q million NT$ 97.648 2.977- 149.677 34.190 32.210 117.468 44.201 3.496- 0,64 Hanjin Shipping 3Q billion Won 6.075 225 8.286 1.268 1.052 7.233 4.110 2.279- 0,11 failed Hyundai Merchant Marine 3Q million Won 4.402 145- 6.959 1.478 644 6.314 3.508 1.655- -0,06 Zim 2Q million US$ 1.555 81 2.095 735 98 1.997 732 1.707- -0,24 Z-score of container shipping companies (2016) Company Period 2016 Unit Net Sales EBIT Total Assets Current Assets Book Value of Equity Total Liabilities Current Liabilities Retained Earnings Z-SCORE AP Moller Maersk 3Q million US$ 26.577 1.951 63.445 11.089 35.209 28.233 9.400 31.455 1,99 OOIL 2Q million US$ 2.560 18- 9.419 2.651 4.688 4.731 1.228 4.625 1,73 Wan Hai 3Q million NT$ 42.461 1.006 75.068 28.426 33.062 42.005 17.289 9.406 1,44 Hapag Lloyd Holding 3Q milion Euro 5.713 26 10.593 1.420 4.725 5.864 2.392 2.913 1,31 Matson 3Q million US$ 1.422 61 2.073 310 459 1.323 290 184 1,13 CMA CGM 3Q million US$ 11.403 192- 19.849 4.885 4.907 14.942 7.006 5.093 0,97 K Line 2Q million Yen 491 26- 1.050 229 306 744 227 143 0,83 MOL group 2Q million Yen 713 2- 2.103 456 458 1.572 463 354 0,74 Evergreen Marine Corporation 3Q million NT$ 90.272 7.075- 185.836 50.943 52.578 133.257 39.097 6.249 0,72 Cosco 3Q million US$ 2.147 150 10.277 7.812 956 9.320 5.767 68 0,57 NOL 1Q million US$ 1.138 4 6.674 814 2.416 4.256 1.618 616 0,50 Hyundai Merchant Marine 3Q million Won 3.313 645- 4.415 928 1.539 2.873 933 764- 0,35 China Shipping Container Lines 2Q milion RMB 8.376 81 101.293 23.185 13.818 87.146 42.875 2.133 -0,02 Zim 2Q million US$ 1.242 71- 1.778 585 62- 1.841 656 1.858- -0,96 X1 = Working Capital / Total Assets X4 = Market Value of Equity / Total Liabilities X2 = Retained Earnings / Total Assets X5 = Sales / Total Assets X3 = Earnings Before Interest and Taxes / Total Assets Altman Z-score bankruptcy model: Z = 1.2X1 + 1.4X2 + 3.3X3 + 0.6X4 + .999X5 Zones of Discrimination: Z > 2.99 -Safe Zone 1.81 < Z < 2.99 -Gray Zone Z < 1.81 -Distress Zone by Dr. Gianluca D'Orsi What will be the next container shipping company to fail?
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