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Where Shall We Have Lunch? Problems For A Computer-aided Future

FoCAS Initiative
FoCAS Initiative

This document discusses problems that may arise from interconnected complex adaptive systems in smart cities. It raises questions about what could happen when different systems like smart homes, mobility networks, and the power grid interact with each other. Some specific questions asked include: how can these systems account for human irrationality; how can we trust systems that are prone to emergent behaviors; and how can we design systems to be self-explaining when failures occur due to the interaction of independent parts. The document uses a hypothetical example of a lunch plan being disrupted by public transport strikes to illustrate issues that could arise from unforeseen emergent behaviors in interconnected smart city systems.

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CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS Where shall we have lunch? Problems for a computer-aided future Vivek Nallur Trinity College Dublin July 20, 2015
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS THE BIG QUESTIONS The History of every major Galactic Civilization tends to pass through three distinct and recognizable phases, those of Survival, Inquiry and Sophistication, otherwise known as the How, Why, and Where phases. For instance, the 鍖rst phase is characterized by the question How can we eat? the second by the question Why do we eat? and the third by the question Where shall we have lunch? Douglas Adams, The Restaurant at the End of the Universe
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS FRAMING THE QUESTION
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO BE A SMART CITY?
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS SMART MOBILITY Figure: source - Amsterdam Smart City [www.amsterdamsmartcity.com]
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS SMART HOMES
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS SMART GRID
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS SO, WHATS THE PROBLEM? Figure: Visualization of movement on the LondonUnderground
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS EACH HOME IS A COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM Figure: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File: Complex-adaptive-system.jpg
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS IF DUBLIN WERE A SMART CITY Number of smart homes 400,000 (approx) Number of smart buses 950 (approx) Number of ansibles 1 million (approx) Number of Luas riders per day 83,500 (approx) Number of Bus riders per day 300, 000 (approx) How many feedback loops does this system have?
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS LETS HAVE LUNCH! My ansible can talk to your ansible Coordinate schedules Contact city transport network for options, pre-and-post lunch Find restaurants amenable to both palettes and budgets Make reservations Reserve place on city transport vehicles What could possibly go wrong?
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS STRIKE! STRIKE! STRIKE! Talks breakdown between management and union Union announces demonstrations, sit-ins, protests Self-Adaptation By Smart Transport Network Re-route buses, trams Change schedules to accommodate rush Cancel reservations on public transport network, lying on strike route
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS Self-Adaptation By Smart Grid Observe spike in power demand from tram-network Re-route power from residences to tram-network Start-up generators to cope with future demand in residences Self-Adaptation By Smart Home Change schedules of automated washing machines, dishwashers All non-essential appliances switched off Self-Adaptation By Ansibles Start charging EVs for un-missable appointments Cancel appointments that cannot be met Change schedules
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS WHATS WRONG WITH ALL OF THAT? What happened to my lunch appointment? The ansible has no idea The smart-home has no idea The smart-grid has no idea Series of cascading events Disruption in schedules cause changes to traf鍖c patterns Changed traf鍖c patterns cause more power to be drawn by transport networks Sudden power demand causes brownouts in residential neighbourhoods
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS AND YOURE JUST ONE IN A MILLION CITIZENS
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS WAS THERE AN ACTUAL STRIKE? Can you trust an autonomous complex adaptive system? Which agent is responsible for failure? Can the system explain itself? What about emergent phenomena? Reasoning about failure When no single system has failed And no-one has the big picture
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS ALREADY COMPLEX SYSTEMS ARE NERVE-WRACKING In Stock-Exchanges Flash crashes caused by high-frequency trading algorithms 60 - 70% of price movements caused by self-generated activity Oct, 2014 saw 179 mini-鍖ash-crashes Air-Traf鍖c Control December, 2014 ATC shutdown airspace over London
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS INTER-CONNECTED COMPLEX SYSTEMS Need Self-Explaining Mechanisms To account for humans in the loop To account to humans in the loop Will almost certainly experience Emergence
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS QUESTIONS THAT WE DESPERATELY NEED ANSWERS TO What happens when one complex adaptive system meets another? Smart Homes meets Smart Mobility meets Smart Grid
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS QUESTIONS THAT WE DESPERATELY NEED ANSWERS TO What happens when one complex adaptive system meets another? Smart Homes meets Smart Mobility meets Smart Grid How do we account for irrational human behaviour? I only eat vegetarian on Wednesdays, unless Lorettas has saltimbocca alla Romana as the lunch special
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS QUESTIONS THAT WE DESPERATELY NEED ANSWERS TO What happens when one complex adaptive system meets another? Smart Homes meets Smart Mobility meets Smart Grid How do we account for irrational human behaviour? I only eat vegetarian on Wednesdays, unless Lorettas has saltimbocca alla Romana as the lunch special How far can we trust a socio-technical complex adaptive system? If my ansible says not to take the Waterloo line, then there must be a fault
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS MORE TECHNICAL QUESTIONS ... How do we construct a socio-technical complex adaptive system?
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS MORE TECHNICAL QUESTIONS ... How do we construct a socio-technical complex adaptive system? What kind of design philosophies exist for such systems?
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS MORE TECHNICAL QUESTIONS ... How do we construct a socio-technical complex adaptive system? What kind of design philosophies exist for such systems? If emergence is a given, what are the implications for proof?
CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS THATS ALL, FOLKS! Questions? Comments?

More Related Content

Where Shall We Have Lunch? Problems For A Computer-aided Future

  • 1. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS Where shall we have lunch? Problems for a computer-aided future Vivek Nallur Trinity College Dublin July 20, 2015
  • 2. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS THE BIG QUESTIONS The History of every major Galactic Civilization tends to pass through three distinct and recognizable phases, those of Survival, Inquiry and Sophistication, otherwise known as the How, Why, and Where phases. For instance, the 鍖rst phase is characterized by the question How can we eat? the second by the question Why do we eat? and the third by the question Where shall we have lunch? Douglas Adams, The Restaurant at the End of the Universe
  • 3. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS FRAMING THE QUESTION
  • 4. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO BE A SMART CITY?
  • 5. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS SMART MOBILITY Figure: source - Amsterdam Smart City [www.amsterdamsmartcity.com]
  • 6. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS SMART HOMES
  • 7. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS SMART GRID
  • 8. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS SO, WHATS THE PROBLEM? Figure: Visualization of movement on the LondonUnderground
  • 9. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS EACH HOME IS A COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM Figure: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File: Complex-adaptive-system.jpg
  • 10. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS IF DUBLIN WERE A SMART CITY Number of smart homes 400,000 (approx) Number of smart buses 950 (approx) Number of ansibles 1 million (approx) Number of Luas riders per day 83,500 (approx) Number of Bus riders per day 300, 000 (approx) How many feedback loops does this system have?
  • 11. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS LETS HAVE LUNCH! My ansible can talk to your ansible Coordinate schedules Contact city transport network for options, pre-and-post lunch Find restaurants amenable to both palettes and budgets Make reservations Reserve place on city transport vehicles What could possibly go wrong?
  • 12. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS STRIKE! STRIKE! STRIKE! Talks breakdown between management and union Union announces demonstrations, sit-ins, protests Self-Adaptation By Smart Transport Network Re-route buses, trams Change schedules to accommodate rush Cancel reservations on public transport network, lying on strike route
  • 13. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS Self-Adaptation By Smart Grid Observe spike in power demand from tram-network Re-route power from residences to tram-network Start-up generators to cope with future demand in residences Self-Adaptation By Smart Home Change schedules of automated washing machines, dishwashers All non-essential appliances switched off Self-Adaptation By Ansibles Start charging EVs for un-missable appointments Cancel appointments that cannot be met Change schedules
  • 14. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS WHATS WRONG WITH ALL OF THAT? What happened to my lunch appointment? The ansible has no idea The smart-home has no idea The smart-grid has no idea Series of cascading events Disruption in schedules cause changes to traf鍖c patterns Changed traf鍖c patterns cause more power to be drawn by transport networks Sudden power demand causes brownouts in residential neighbourhoods
  • 15. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS AND YOURE JUST ONE IN A MILLION CITIZENS
  • 16. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS WAS THERE AN ACTUAL STRIKE? Can you trust an autonomous complex adaptive system? Which agent is responsible for failure? Can the system explain itself? What about emergent phenomena? Reasoning about failure When no single system has failed And no-one has the big picture
  • 17. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS ALREADY COMPLEX SYSTEMS ARE NERVE-WRACKING In Stock-Exchanges Flash crashes caused by high-frequency trading algorithms 60 - 70% of price movements caused by self-generated activity Oct, 2014 saw 179 mini-鍖ash-crashes Air-Traf鍖c Control December, 2014 ATC shutdown airspace over London
  • 18. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS INTER-CONNECTED COMPLEX SYSTEMS Need Self-Explaining Mechanisms To account for humans in the loop To account to humans in the loop Will almost certainly experience Emergence
  • 19. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS QUESTIONS THAT WE DESPERATELY NEED ANSWERS TO What happens when one complex adaptive system meets another? Smart Homes meets Smart Mobility meets Smart Grid
  • 20. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS QUESTIONS THAT WE DESPERATELY NEED ANSWERS TO What happens when one complex adaptive system meets another? Smart Homes meets Smart Mobility meets Smart Grid How do we account for irrational human behaviour? I only eat vegetarian on Wednesdays, unless Lorettas has saltimbocca alla Romana as the lunch special
  • 21. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS QUESTIONS THAT WE DESPERATELY NEED ANSWERS TO What happens when one complex adaptive system meets another? Smart Homes meets Smart Mobility meets Smart Grid How do we account for irrational human behaviour? I only eat vegetarian on Wednesdays, unless Lorettas has saltimbocca alla Romana as the lunch special How far can we trust a socio-technical complex adaptive system? If my ansible says not to take the Waterloo line, then there must be a fault
  • 22. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS MORE TECHNICAL QUESTIONS ... How do we construct a socio-technical complex adaptive system?
  • 23. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS MORE TECHNICAL QUESTIONS ... How do we construct a socio-technical complex adaptive system? What kind of design philosophies exist for such systems?
  • 24. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS MORE TECHNICAL QUESTIONS ... How do we construct a socio-technical complex adaptive system? What kind of design philosophies exist for such systems? If emergence is a given, what are the implications for proof?
  • 25. CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS THATS ALL, FOLKS! Questions? Comments?