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Wiemers butterflies as indicators

Jacqueline Loos
Jacqueline Loos

1) The study analyzed butterfly population data from Germany over decades to develop indicators of responses to climate change. 2) A Community Temperature Index (CTI) showed butterflies shifting to warmer-adapted species, correlating with rising temperatures. 3) Species' temperature indices (STI) showed northern species' ranges shifting north and southern species' ranges shifting further into northern regions, consistent with warming trends. 4) Both CTI and an STI-based areal index strongly correlated with annual temperature fluctuations, validating butterflies as useful climate change indicators.

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Butterflies as indicators: responses of butterfly populations to climatic fluctuations in Germany Martin Wiemers, Alexander Harpke, Elisabeth K端hn, Martin Musche, Oliver Schweiger, Josef Settele, Marten Winter
Background Research project on monitoring climate change and biodiversity in the German Free State of Saxony Development of biodiversity indicators for climate change Evaluation of available data Impact of climate change on Community composition Distribution ranges SEITE 2
Temperature trend in Dresden 1812-2009 SEITE 3
Responses of species communities to climate change Community Temperature Index (CTI) - Devictor et al. (2008) Weighted Sum of Species Temperature Indices (STI) SEITE 4 CTI
Community Temperature Index in Butterflies Positive temporal trend of CTI in European Butterflies 1990-2009 (Van Swaay et al. 2008, 2010) European variations in trend of bird & butterfly CTI (Devictor et al. 2012 in Nature Climate Change) SEITE 5
SEITE 6 Annual mean temperatures in Europe: Basis for Species Temperature Indices (STI) Reference period: 1961-1990 Leipzig: 8.8 Sachsen: 8.1
SEITE 7 STI examples in butterflies Colias palaeno: 3.62 Hipparchia statilinus: 11.82 Boreo-alpine species: Mediterranean species:
Butterflies of Saxony 140 species Good temporal coverage for 36 years (1975-2010) with >1000 records/year Excellent spatial coverage 43% of records without abundance data SEITE 8
Butterfly Monitoring Germany (TMD) 149 species Monitoring data Temporal coverage for 5 years (2006-2010) Limited spatial coverage SEITE 10
CTI correlation with climatic fluctuations SEITE 11 Correlation with annual mean temperature: 0.55, p<0.001*** Saxony annual mean temperature CTI
Considering generation time SEITE 13 Better Correlation (0,64) with the sliding 3-year mean of the current and 2 previous years Generation length up to one year Temperature of previous years decisive Annual mean temperature Mean temp. of the last 3 years CTI Year x 0.549*** 0.632*** 0.637*** 0.584** x-1 0.496** 0.491** 0.424*x-2 0.324 0.260 x-3
Correlation between CTI and annual mean temperatures across Europe SEITE 14 0 5 10 15 051015 Mean annual temperature CTI Nearly linear correlation with an increase of 0.33 Saxony 1975-2010: Increase of ann. mean: 0.0288 Projected CTI: 0.0095 Observed CTI: 0.0046 Difference: factor 0.5
Robustness of CTI SEITE 15 CTI is robust to selection of species Exceptional immigration events may influence CTI without Colias crocea with Colias crocea
CTI TMD Regions SEITE 18 Year x -0.169 x-1 0.940 ** x-2 0.518 x-3 -0.316 0.558 0.130 0.944 ** 0.718 0.825 * 0.781 Strong correlation between CTI and the temperature mean of the previous year
SEITE 19 Climate impact on regional distribution ranges Saxony: Southern species in the northern flatlands Northern species in the mountains near the southern border to the Czech Republic Hipparchia statilinus: warm-adapted species Colias palaeno: cold-adapted species STI: 11.8 STI: 3.6
SEITE 20 STI-based Areal Index Sum of occupied grid cells (e.g. MTB) of southern versus northern species based on and weighted by the difference of each species STI from the mean CTI Examples of STI differences: The butterfly genus Colias: Colias alfacariensis 9.94 1.176 Colias crocea 10.69 1.923 Colias erate 10.03 1.266 Colias hyale 8.37 -0.397 Colias palaeno 3.62 -5.146
Butterflies of Saxony: STI-based Areal Index SEITE 21 Correlation of areal index with annual mean temperature (0,48**) Positive trend
Areal Index vs. CTI in Butterflies of Saxony SEITE 22 Very high correlation AISTI CTI: 0,93*** Areal Index (STI-based) CTI
Conclusions CTI indicates change of community composition towards warm-adapted species during the last 2-3 decades CTI is a robust biodiversity indicator for climate change, but works best with monitoring data CTI is sensitive to short-term climatic fluctuations in animals with short generation times The extent of CTI fluctuations strongly depends on generation length STI values can be used to assess climate-driven range changes Climate-driven range changes strongly correlate with changes in community composition SEITE 23
Thank you for your attention! Recorders and contributors to the Butterfly Fauna of Saxony and the Butterfly Monitoring Scheme Germany (TMD) Rolf Reinhardt and the S辰chsisches Landesamt f端r Umwelt, Landwirtschaft und Geologie (LfULG) for data Ingolf K端hn and members of the Department of Community Ecology for helpful discussions SEITE 25 Acknowledgements

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Wiemers butterflies as indicators

  • 1. Butterflies as indicators: responses of butterfly populations to climatic fluctuations in Germany Martin Wiemers, Alexander Harpke, Elisabeth K端hn, Martin Musche, Oliver Schweiger, Josef Settele, Marten Winter
  • 2. Background Research project on monitoring climate change and biodiversity in the German Free State of Saxony Development of biodiversity indicators for climate change Evaluation of available data Impact of climate change on Community composition Distribution ranges SEITE 2
  • 3. Temperature trend in Dresden 1812-2009 SEITE 3
  • 4. Responses of species communities to climate change Community Temperature Index (CTI) - Devictor et al. (2008) Weighted Sum of Species Temperature Indices (STI) SEITE 4 CTI
  • 5. Community Temperature Index in Butterflies Positive temporal trend of CTI in European Butterflies 1990-2009 (Van Swaay et al. 2008, 2010) European variations in trend of bird & butterfly CTI (Devictor et al. 2012 in Nature Climate Change) SEITE 5
  • 6. SEITE 6 Annual mean temperatures in Europe: Basis for Species Temperature Indices (STI) Reference period: 1961-1990 Leipzig: 8.8 Sachsen: 8.1
  • 7. SEITE 7 STI examples in butterflies Colias palaeno: 3.62 Hipparchia statilinus: 11.82 Boreo-alpine species: Mediterranean species:
  • 8. Butterflies of Saxony 140 species Good temporal coverage for 36 years (1975-2010) with >1000 records/year Excellent spatial coverage 43% of records without abundance data SEITE 8
  • 9. Butterfly Monitoring Germany (TMD) 149 species Monitoring data Temporal coverage for 5 years (2006-2010) Limited spatial coverage SEITE 10
  • 10. CTI correlation with climatic fluctuations SEITE 11 Correlation with annual mean temperature: 0.55, p<0.001*** Saxony annual mean temperature CTI
  • 11. Considering generation time SEITE 13 Better Correlation (0,64) with the sliding 3-year mean of the current and 2 previous years Generation length up to one year Temperature of previous years decisive Annual mean temperature Mean temp. of the last 3 years CTI Year x 0.549*** 0.632*** 0.637*** 0.584** x-1 0.496** 0.491** 0.424*x-2 0.324 0.260 x-3
  • 12. Correlation between CTI and annual mean temperatures across Europe SEITE 14 0 5 10 15 051015 Mean annual temperature CTI Nearly linear correlation with an increase of 0.33 Saxony 1975-2010: Increase of ann. mean: 0.0288 Projected CTI: 0.0095 Observed CTI: 0.0046 Difference: factor 0.5
  • 13. Robustness of CTI SEITE 15 CTI is robust to selection of species Exceptional immigration events may influence CTI without Colias crocea with Colias crocea
  • 14. CTI TMD Regions SEITE 18 Year x -0.169 x-1 0.940 ** x-2 0.518 x-3 -0.316 0.558 0.130 0.944 ** 0.718 0.825 * 0.781 Strong correlation between CTI and the temperature mean of the previous year
  • 15. SEITE 19 Climate impact on regional distribution ranges Saxony: Southern species in the northern flatlands Northern species in the mountains near the southern border to the Czech Republic Hipparchia statilinus: warm-adapted species Colias palaeno: cold-adapted species STI: 11.8 STI: 3.6
  • 16. SEITE 20 STI-based Areal Index Sum of occupied grid cells (e.g. MTB) of southern versus northern species based on and weighted by the difference of each species STI from the mean CTI Examples of STI differences: The butterfly genus Colias: Colias alfacariensis 9.94 1.176 Colias crocea 10.69 1.923 Colias erate 10.03 1.266 Colias hyale 8.37 -0.397 Colias palaeno 3.62 -5.146
  • 17. Butterflies of Saxony: STI-based Areal Index SEITE 21 Correlation of areal index with annual mean temperature (0,48**) Positive trend
  • 18. Areal Index vs. CTI in Butterflies of Saxony SEITE 22 Very high correlation AISTI CTI: 0,93*** Areal Index (STI-based) CTI
  • 19. Conclusions CTI indicates change of community composition towards warm-adapted species during the last 2-3 decades CTI is a robust biodiversity indicator for climate change, but works best with monitoring data CTI is sensitive to short-term climatic fluctuations in animals with short generation times The extent of CTI fluctuations strongly depends on generation length STI values can be used to assess climate-driven range changes Climate-driven range changes strongly correlate with changes in community composition SEITE 23
  • 20. Thank you for your attention! Recorders and contributors to the Butterfly Fauna of Saxony and the Butterfly Monitoring Scheme Germany (TMD) Rolf Reinhardt and the S辰chsisches Landesamt f端r Umwelt, Landwirtschaft und Geologie (LfULG) for data Ingolf K端hn and members of the Department of Community Ecology for helpful discussions SEITE 25 Acknowledgements