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World Engineers Summit Conf, Singapore July 2015 [Compatibility Mode]

R
Roger Falconer

Global water security faces several challenges: - Freshwater resources are unevenly distributed and declining due to factors like climate change and population growth. - Nearly 2 billion people lack access to clean drinking water and proper sanitation. - Water demand exceeds sustainable limits in many regions due to increasing food and energy needs. - Integrated water resource management and new hydroscience tools are needed to help close the gap between water supply and demand as part of efforts to achieve global water security.

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1 Global Water Security: Challenges and Opportunities by Roger A. Falconer CH2M Professor of Water Management IAHR President Hydro-environmental Research Centre School of Engineering, Cardiff University
2 Water Security: Increasing Attention
3 World of Water Key facts: Total global volume 1.4 billion km3 Only 35 million km3 of freshwater Only 105 thousand km3 is accessible (0.01% of total vol.)
4 Water Availability - Some Challenges Nearly 70% of worlds fresh water is locked in ice Aquifers are being drained much more quickly than natural recharge rate 2/3rd of worlds water is used to grow food 83 million more people live on planet each year Current demand for fresh water is not sustainable On average, every $1 invested in water and sanitation provides an economic return of $8
5 Water Security - Some Challenges 1.2 bn people have no access to safe drinking water and 2 m die annually of diarrhoea 2.4 bn people do not have access to basic water sanitation and 10 m contact hepatitis A annually Women in developing countries walk an average of 6 km daily to get water Flooding causes many deaths globally - e.g. Aceh More than 1/2 hospital beds in world are filled by people with water related diseases (BMJ 04)
6 Water Security - Typical Challenges Source: http://water.org/learn-about-the-water-crisis/
7 Water Security - Typical Challenges Source: http://water.org/learn-about-the-water-crisis/
8 Water Security - Typical Challenges Source: http://water.org/learn-about-the-water-crisis/
9 Limited but Vital Resource Water is needed to: Sustain human life Support production of food Support production of energy Sustain industry Maintain ecosystems biodiversity and landforms
10 Stern 2006: Climate Change Impacts
11 Impacts of Population Growth
12 Water-Food-Energy Nexus Water Energy Food Finance Trade Society Environment Climate change Urbanisation Lifestyle Diet Can we just consider Carbon Footprint in isolation?
13 Africa Asia EU Global Domestic 7% 6% 13% 8% Industry 5% 8% 54% 23% Agriculture 88% 84% 33% 69% Water Abstraction - Food Link
14 Water Stress Globally: 1990
15 Water Stress Globally: 2050
16 Four Reasons for Action Water scarcity is increasing with 1/5th of worlds population living in areas of water scarcity Sustainable Development Goals - 5 linked to water issues Conflicts over water have taken place and are likely to rise Economic growth affected by water availability and quality
17 Pressure on Water Resources Population to increase by 50% over next 50 yr Urbanisation to city regions particularly coastal Food production needs to double in 40 years Industry demand needs new energy sources More disposable income change in diet & more meat consumption, e.g. China: 11 kg/person/yr in 1975 50 kg/person/yr in 2000 (FAO) Changing diets more water:- 1 kg beef 15,500 litres of water, 1 kg of wheat 1,300 litres of water
18 Water Management - Water Cycle blue green rivers lakes aquifers soil moisture withdrawals domestic industry returns wastewater surplus irrigation transpiration (consumptive use) ocean food products (inc. energy) domestic export export domestic virtual water virtual water rivers consumptive use returns to river & groundwater blue green rivers lakes aquifers soil moisture withdrawals domestic industry returns wastewater surplus irrigation transpiration (consumptive use) ocean food products (inc. energy) domestic export export domestic virtual water virtual water rivers consumptive use returns to river & groundwater 100% 36%
19 1 bath Virtual Water Content 26 baths73 baths
20 Water Footprint of a Nation Water used to produce goods and services consumed within a nation Two components:- Internal water footprint - from inside country External water footprint - from other countries National water footprint = National water use + Virtual water import Virtual water export
21 Water Footprint of Nations 3827 58 35 127 314 817Export Equivalent to 4.5 m3 / day SOURCE: Hoekstra and Chapagain 2008
22 External WF = 63.6 Gm3/yr Internal WF = 38.6 Gm3/yr UK Water Footprint (WF) Internal WF:- Household = 3.3 Agriculture = 28.4 Industrial = 6.9 External WF:- Household = 0.0 Agriculture = 46.4 Industrial = 17.2
23 Blue WF of EU Cotton Consumption SOURCE;Hoekstra & Chapagain, 2008]
24 Impacts Shrinking Aral Sea Consumption in one place can impact drastically on water elsewhere
25 Impacts Shrinking Lake Chad
26 Large unsustainable irrigation projects Local climate change and local deforestation Resulting in:- Lake area decreased by 95% since 1963 Crop failures Livestock deaths Collapsed fisheries Increased poverty Impacts Shrinking Lake Chad
27 Water Footprint of Biofuels Source Source: Gerbens-Leenes et al. National Academy of Sciences 2009
28 Public Education of Water Footprint A typical football shirt made of Cotton 2,700 litres of water Do football clubs need to change their shirt every 1-2 years? This water could be used to grow food
29 What Price is Water (e.g. UK)? $4.6 for 1m3 (1 persons mean use per week or 150l/d) $3.80 $1.50 $3.80 $4.60
30 Recognising Eco-system Services Ecosystem Services
31 Eco-systems Services - Market Provisional services controlling water quality and quantity for consumptive use Regulatory services buffering for flood flows and provision of habitat services Cultural services recreation and tourism Support services nutrient cycling and eco- system resilience to adapt for climate change Conservation services forests reduce GHG emissions significantly estimated $3.7Tr
32 Eco-systems Services - Tidal Energy Methodological Approach (Arup): Current market price for services such as:- Flood Risk Protection, Tourism, Recreation and Regeneration Value:- Habitat Provision Impoundment Area 116 km2 Potential Energy 1.91 TWh/yr (0-D) Proposed Clwyd Tidal Impoundment Impounded Area 500 km2 Potential Energy 17 TWh/yr Proposed Severn Barrage
33 Tidal Range - Economic Opportunity Investment in construction Total economic activity
34 Tidal Range - Economic Evaluation Tourism and Recreation Severn Barrage and Clwyd Impoundment Watersports Tourismfromanew landmark Habitats recreation Properties safeguarded fromflooding Moresecuretourism incomeandscopefor developing Potentialasadormitory townforNorthWestEngland realised Bringsmoremoneyintoareatostrengthenand enhancelocalfacilities EcosystemService SevernBarrage Floodriskandlanddrainage 贈219mbenefitover100 years HabitatProvision 贈34m贈104mcostover 120years TourismandRecreation 贈3m贈27minannualGVA Regeneration 贈26.0bncapitalcostwith upto贈47.8bnGVAover8 yearsconstructionperiod EcosystemService ClwydTidalImpoundment Floodriskandlanddrainage 贈2.45bnbenefitover100 years HabitatProvision Notassessed TourismandRecreation 贈270m贈670msecured annualtourismspend Regeneration 贈3.5bncapitalcostwithup to贈6.5bnGVAover5years constructionperiod
35 Solutions Water Security Desalination expensive, relatively large carbon footprint and hydro-environmental challenges Conservation and water re-use to be encouraged but only deals with domestic consumption Storage, water transfer & integrated water resources management needs more holistic solutions Improved water quality in pathways and basins pollution exacerbates water security Global population growth needs addressing
36 Catchment Model Groundwater Model Sewer Model 1D River Model 2D Estuary Model 3D Ocean Model Design and Build Challenges Particle travels from Cloud to Coast (picking up pollutants etc.) does not know which part of system its in at any given time Cloud to Coast - IWRM Solutions
37 Traditional System Layout Concerns: low flows and ecological impact downstream of abstractions Abstraction Reduction in River flow
38 Preferred System Layout No Significant Change in River flow Benefits: flow and ecology maintained downstream of abstraction
39 Fylde Coast - Ribble Estuary, U.K. London Blackpool Lytham St Annes Ribble Estuary River Wyre Southport Fleetwood Compliance point
40 Background Failure to meet EU Bathing Water standards Storm sewers and sewage works discharging along coast thought to be main problem Combined storm water and sewer overflows discharge into water courses and rivers Field surveys undertaken to establish inputs and failure levels at compliance points Surveys unable to provide definitive conclusions Data could not allow for impact of future proposed capital improvements to works to be assessed
41 Blackpool Lytham St Annes River Ribble River Douglas Ribble Estuary River Wyre Bathing water Pumping station Treatment works Key Southport Water Assets $800 million invested from 1993 1996 3 major sewage treatment works 5 pumping stations with storm outfalls along coast
42 Objectives Refine HRC hydro-environmental modelling tools Quantify impact of sewage inputs into Ribble basin on coastal bathing water quality Investigate influence of various parameters such as wind, tidal range, river discharge, etc Allow for continuous and intermittent inputs Incorporate land use changes and diffuse source inputs as boundary fluxes when data available Propose management strategies for basin
43 Linked 2-D and 1-D Models 326000 330000 334000 338000 342000 346000 350000 354000 358000 362000 418000 422000 426000 430000 434000 7mile 3mile Tarleton Lock Bullnose Penwortham Blue Bridge Darwen Boundary Douglas River Ribble Boundary Downstream Boundary Measuring Water Elevation Tide Survey Measuring Discharge
44 Current Calibration 53 54 55WaterElevation(m) Model Measured -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 Tim e (hours) Speed(m/s) Model Measured -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 Tim e (hours) Direction(deg) Model Measured Time (hours) Time (hours) 11 Milepost 3/12/98 Emax=4.7% Emin=1.9% Emax=13.0% Emin=9.7% Emin=2.2%
45 Ribble Estuary Model Calibration 11 milepost 11 May 1999 Wet Weather Neap Tide
46 19 May 1999 Dry Weather Spring Tide Ribble Estuary Model Calibration 11 milepost
47 Coliform Predictions
48 Review of Previous Study Previous study undertaken at Cardiff gave good calibration agreement separately for 1-D and 2-D models before linking, but needed: Different values of decay rates Different values of dispersion coefficients Different flow area representations over linked region Different values and formulations for roughness coefficients in 1-D (ks) and 2-D (n) models Simplified treatment of kinetic decay and source inputs for stochastic inputs from discharges
49 Overview of Previous Study Observations made between 1-D & 2-D parts of linked model Different dispersion coefficients
50 C2C: Common Dispersion 1-D / 2-D longitudinal dispersion (Preston 1985): Distribution FIO Levels at Mid Ebb Tide (a) Old Model (b) Common Dispersion Fully integrated model shows greater sensitivity to land use changes at compliance point
51 General Challenges Security of clean water supply will become an increasing challenge over next 30-50 years Increasing concern about water quality in rivers, estuaries and coastal basins world-wide Traditionally water engineers and scientists have focused emphasis on flow and gross water quality Increasing emphasis now needs to be focused on improving bio-geochemistry and health risk in hydro-epidemiological impact assessment tools
52 Conclusions General Intensify debate around fundamental role of water Better understand levers to close supply-demand gap Government, private sector and communities must better harmonise their aspirations for water use Correlate countries hydrologically best suited to grow food for 9 bn people by addressing trade barriers, price supports and other subsidies Water professionals need to stand up and be counted and get out of the box
53 Conclusions Hydroscience Need better tools for weather modelling, precipitation prediction and better data to understand processes Need new tools for improved process representation in design of water supply and treatment works Need better monitoring strategies for highly episodic events, both for flow and epidemiological data etc. Need new hydroinformatics tools for more efficient use of water for agriculture more crop per drop Hydroscience tools driver for global water security
54 Thank You Professor Roger A. Falconer Email: FalconerRA@cf.ac.uk

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World Engineers Summit Conf, Singapore July 2015 [Compatibility Mode]

  • 1. 1 Global Water Security: Challenges and Opportunities by Roger A. Falconer CH2M Professor of Water Management IAHR President Hydro-environmental Research Centre School of Engineering, Cardiff University
  • 3. 3 World of Water Key facts: Total global volume 1.4 billion km3 Only 35 million km3 of freshwater Only 105 thousand km3 is accessible (0.01% of total vol.)
  • 4. 4 Water Availability - Some Challenges Nearly 70% of worlds fresh water is locked in ice Aquifers are being drained much more quickly than natural recharge rate 2/3rd of worlds water is used to grow food 83 million more people live on planet each year Current demand for fresh water is not sustainable On average, every $1 invested in water and sanitation provides an economic return of $8
  • 5. 5 Water Security - Some Challenges 1.2 bn people have no access to safe drinking water and 2 m die annually of diarrhoea 2.4 bn people do not have access to basic water sanitation and 10 m contact hepatitis A annually Women in developing countries walk an average of 6 km daily to get water Flooding causes many deaths globally - e.g. Aceh More than 1/2 hospital beds in world are filled by people with water related diseases (BMJ 04)
  • 6. 6 Water Security - Typical Challenges Source: http://water.org/learn-about-the-water-crisis/
  • 7. 7 Water Security - Typical Challenges Source: http://water.org/learn-about-the-water-crisis/
  • 8. 8 Water Security - Typical Challenges Source: http://water.org/learn-about-the-water-crisis/
  • 9. 9 Limited but Vital Resource Water is needed to: Sustain human life Support production of food Support production of energy Sustain industry Maintain ecosystems biodiversity and landforms
  • 10. 10 Stern 2006: Climate Change Impacts
  • 12. 12 Water-Food-Energy Nexus Water Energy Food Finance Trade Society Environment Climate change Urbanisation Lifestyle Diet Can we just consider Carbon Footprint in isolation?
  • 13. 13 Africa Asia EU Global Domestic 7% 6% 13% 8% Industry 5% 8% 54% 23% Agriculture 88% 84% 33% 69% Water Abstraction - Food Link
  • 16. 16 Four Reasons for Action Water scarcity is increasing with 1/5th of worlds population living in areas of water scarcity Sustainable Development Goals - 5 linked to water issues Conflicts over water have taken place and are likely to rise Economic growth affected by water availability and quality
  • 17. 17 Pressure on Water Resources Population to increase by 50% over next 50 yr Urbanisation to city regions particularly coastal Food production needs to double in 40 years Industry demand needs new energy sources More disposable income change in diet & more meat consumption, e.g. China: 11 kg/person/yr in 1975 50 kg/person/yr in 2000 (FAO) Changing diets more water:- 1 kg beef 15,500 litres of water, 1 kg of wheat 1,300 litres of water
  • 18. 18 Water Management - Water Cycle blue green rivers lakes aquifers soil moisture withdrawals domestic industry returns wastewater surplus irrigation transpiration (consumptive use) ocean food products (inc. energy) domestic export export domestic virtual water virtual water rivers consumptive use returns to river & groundwater blue green rivers lakes aquifers soil moisture withdrawals domestic industry returns wastewater surplus irrigation transpiration (consumptive use) ocean food products (inc. energy) domestic export export domestic virtual water virtual water rivers consumptive use returns to river & groundwater 100% 36%
  • 19. 19 1 bath Virtual Water Content 26 baths73 baths
  • 20. 20 Water Footprint of a Nation Water used to produce goods and services consumed within a nation Two components:- Internal water footprint - from inside country External water footprint - from other countries National water footprint = National water use + Virtual water import Virtual water export
  • 21. 21 Water Footprint of Nations 3827 58 35 127 314 817Export Equivalent to 4.5 m3 / day SOURCE: Hoekstra and Chapagain 2008
  • 22. 22 External WF = 63.6 Gm3/yr Internal WF = 38.6 Gm3/yr UK Water Footprint (WF) Internal WF:- Household = 3.3 Agriculture = 28.4 Industrial = 6.9 External WF:- Household = 0.0 Agriculture = 46.4 Industrial = 17.2
  • 23. 23 Blue WF of EU Cotton Consumption SOURCE;Hoekstra & Chapagain, 2008]
  • 24. 24 Impacts Shrinking Aral Sea Consumption in one place can impact drastically on water elsewhere
  • 25. 25 Impacts Shrinking Lake Chad
  • 26. 26 Large unsustainable irrigation projects Local climate change and local deforestation Resulting in:- Lake area decreased by 95% since 1963 Crop failures Livestock deaths Collapsed fisheries Increased poverty Impacts Shrinking Lake Chad
  • 27. 27 Water Footprint of Biofuels Source Source: Gerbens-Leenes et al. National Academy of Sciences 2009
  • 28. 28 Public Education of Water Footprint A typical football shirt made of Cotton 2,700 litres of water Do football clubs need to change their shirt every 1-2 years? This water could be used to grow food
  • 29. 29 What Price is Water (e.g. UK)? $4.6 for 1m3 (1 persons mean use per week or 150l/d) $3.80 $1.50 $3.80 $4.60
  • 31. 31 Eco-systems Services - Market Provisional services controlling water quality and quantity for consumptive use Regulatory services buffering for flood flows and provision of habitat services Cultural services recreation and tourism Support services nutrient cycling and eco- system resilience to adapt for climate change Conservation services forests reduce GHG emissions significantly estimated $3.7Tr
  • 32. 32 Eco-systems Services - Tidal Energy Methodological Approach (Arup): Current market price for services such as:- Flood Risk Protection, Tourism, Recreation and Regeneration Value:- Habitat Provision Impoundment Area 116 km2 Potential Energy 1.91 TWh/yr (0-D) Proposed Clwyd Tidal Impoundment Impounded Area 500 km2 Potential Energy 17 TWh/yr Proposed Severn Barrage
  • 33. 33 Tidal Range - Economic Opportunity Investment in construction Total economic activity
  • 34. 34 Tidal Range - Economic Evaluation Tourism and Recreation Severn Barrage and Clwyd Impoundment Watersports Tourismfromanew landmark Habitats recreation Properties safeguarded fromflooding Moresecuretourism incomeandscopefor developing Potentialasadormitory townforNorthWestEngland realised Bringsmoremoneyintoareatostrengthenand enhancelocalfacilities EcosystemService SevernBarrage Floodriskandlanddrainage 贈219mbenefitover100 years HabitatProvision 贈34m贈104mcostover 120years TourismandRecreation 贈3m贈27minannualGVA Regeneration 贈26.0bncapitalcostwith upto贈47.8bnGVAover8 yearsconstructionperiod EcosystemService ClwydTidalImpoundment Floodriskandlanddrainage 贈2.45bnbenefitover100 years HabitatProvision Notassessed TourismandRecreation 贈270m贈670msecured annualtourismspend Regeneration 贈3.5bncapitalcostwithup to贈6.5bnGVAover5years constructionperiod
  • 35. 35 Solutions Water Security Desalination expensive, relatively large carbon footprint and hydro-environmental challenges Conservation and water re-use to be encouraged but only deals with domestic consumption Storage, water transfer & integrated water resources management needs more holistic solutions Improved water quality in pathways and basins pollution exacerbates water security Global population growth needs addressing
  • 36. 36 Catchment Model Groundwater Model Sewer Model 1D River Model 2D Estuary Model 3D Ocean Model Design and Build Challenges Particle travels from Cloud to Coast (picking up pollutants etc.) does not know which part of system its in at any given time Cloud to Coast - IWRM Solutions
  • 37. 37 Traditional System Layout Concerns: low flows and ecological impact downstream of abstractions Abstraction Reduction in River flow
  • 38. 38 Preferred System Layout No Significant Change in River flow Benefits: flow and ecology maintained downstream of abstraction
  • 39. 39 Fylde Coast - Ribble Estuary, U.K. London Blackpool Lytham St Annes Ribble Estuary River Wyre Southport Fleetwood Compliance point
  • 40. 40 Background Failure to meet EU Bathing Water standards Storm sewers and sewage works discharging along coast thought to be main problem Combined storm water and sewer overflows discharge into water courses and rivers Field surveys undertaken to establish inputs and failure levels at compliance points Surveys unable to provide definitive conclusions Data could not allow for impact of future proposed capital improvements to works to be assessed
  • 41. 41 Blackpool Lytham St Annes River Ribble River Douglas Ribble Estuary River Wyre Bathing water Pumping station Treatment works Key Southport Water Assets $800 million invested from 1993 1996 3 major sewage treatment works 5 pumping stations with storm outfalls along coast
  • 42. 42 Objectives Refine HRC hydro-environmental modelling tools Quantify impact of sewage inputs into Ribble basin on coastal bathing water quality Investigate influence of various parameters such as wind, tidal range, river discharge, etc Allow for continuous and intermittent inputs Incorporate land use changes and diffuse source inputs as boundary fluxes when data available Propose management strategies for basin
  • 43. 43 Linked 2-D and 1-D Models 326000 330000 334000 338000 342000 346000 350000 354000 358000 362000 418000 422000 426000 430000 434000 7mile 3mile Tarleton Lock Bullnose Penwortham Blue Bridge Darwen Boundary Douglas River Ribble Boundary Downstream Boundary Measuring Water Elevation Tide Survey Measuring Discharge
  • 44. 44 Current Calibration 53 54 55WaterElevation(m) Model Measured -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 Tim e (hours) Speed(m/s) Model Measured -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 Tim e (hours) Direction(deg) Model Measured Time (hours) Time (hours) 11 Milepost 3/12/98 Emax=4.7% Emin=1.9% Emax=13.0% Emin=9.7% Emin=2.2%
  • 45. 45 Ribble Estuary Model Calibration 11 milepost 11 May 1999 Wet Weather Neap Tide
  • 46. 46 19 May 1999 Dry Weather Spring Tide Ribble Estuary Model Calibration 11 milepost
  • 48. 48 Review of Previous Study Previous study undertaken at Cardiff gave good calibration agreement separately for 1-D and 2-D models before linking, but needed: Different values of decay rates Different values of dispersion coefficients Different flow area representations over linked region Different values and formulations for roughness coefficients in 1-D (ks) and 2-D (n) models Simplified treatment of kinetic decay and source inputs for stochastic inputs from discharges
  • 49. 49 Overview of Previous Study Observations made between 1-D & 2-D parts of linked model Different dispersion coefficients
  • 50. 50 C2C: Common Dispersion 1-D / 2-D longitudinal dispersion (Preston 1985): Distribution FIO Levels at Mid Ebb Tide (a) Old Model (b) Common Dispersion Fully integrated model shows greater sensitivity to land use changes at compliance point
  • 51. 51 General Challenges Security of clean water supply will become an increasing challenge over next 30-50 years Increasing concern about water quality in rivers, estuaries and coastal basins world-wide Traditionally water engineers and scientists have focused emphasis on flow and gross water quality Increasing emphasis now needs to be focused on improving bio-geochemistry and health risk in hydro-epidemiological impact assessment tools
  • 52. 52 Conclusions General Intensify debate around fundamental role of water Better understand levers to close supply-demand gap Government, private sector and communities must better harmonise their aspirations for water use Correlate countries hydrologically best suited to grow food for 9 bn people by addressing trade barriers, price supports and other subsidies Water professionals need to stand up and be counted and get out of the box
  • 53. 53 Conclusions Hydroscience Need better tools for weather modelling, precipitation prediction and better data to understand processes Need new tools for improved process representation in design of water supply and treatment works Need better monitoring strategies for highly episodic events, both for flow and epidemiological data etc. Need new hydroinformatics tools for more efficient use of water for agriculture more crop per drop Hydroscience tools driver for global water security
  • 54. 54 Thank You Professor Roger A. Falconer Email: FalconerRA@cf.ac.uk