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Birgitta B?ckeler
? 2020 ThoughtWorks
Rede?ning
con?dence
? 2020 ThoughtWorks
You do have in-depth
technical knowledge.
But you often use words
that make your statements
sound weaker.
? 2020 ThoughtWorks
You could be
even more
con?dent.
? 2020 ThoughtWorks
You could be even
more con?dent.
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Thank you, I will
consider that.
You could be even
more con?dent.
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Thank you, I will
consider that.
But...
You could be even
more con?dent.
Reference: Daniel Kahneman,
¡°Thinking fast and slow¡°.
? 2020 ThoughtWorks
Reference: Daniel Kahneman,
¡°Thinking fast and slow¡°.
¡°People are
generally
rational¡±
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Reference: Daniel Kahneman,
¡°Thinking fast and slow¡°.
¡°People are
generally
rational¡±
¡°Emotions
explain the
exceptions¡±
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¡°People are
generally
rational¡±
¡°Emotions
explain the
exceptions¡±
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Cognitive
biases
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Reference: Wikipedia
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Con?rmation bias
Tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall
information in a way that con?rms our existing beliefs
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Con?rmation bias at al
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Don¡¯t repeat
yourself, ever.
Software development
is full of uncertainty
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Reference: The Guardian, 2016
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Zero risk bias
Our preference for reducing a small risk to zero
over a greater reduction in a overall risk.
Zero risk bias
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Security
Zero risk bias
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Security
Avoiding
lock-in
Zero risk bias
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Security
Avoiding
lock-in
Premature
optimization
Zero risk bias
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Availability
heuristicOur tendency to think that if something
can be easily recalled, it must be important
Use models
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Use models
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Use models
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Security Threat modelling
Avoiding
Lock-in
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Reference: Martin Fowler
Use models
¡°Don¡¯t get locked up
in avoiding lock-in¡±
- Gregor Hohpe
Be explicit
about trade-o?s
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Do Be agile
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Software development
is full of uncertainty
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Architecture is
¡°the important stu?
that people perceive
as hard to change¡±
- Martin Fowler
Learning from
Our decisions
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Outcome bias
Our tendency to evaluate the quality of a decision
based on the outcome of that decision.
Security
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OutcomeDecision
Security
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OutcomeDecision
Security
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OutcomeDecision
?
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OutcomeDecision
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OutcomeDecision
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OutcomeDecision
?
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Distinguish skill
from luck
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¡±...given what we knew
at the time, our skills
and abilities, the
resources available,
and the situation
at hand.¡±
- Prime Directive
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Self-service bias
When we ascribe success to our own abilities
and e?orts, but blame failure on external factors
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¡°Rede?ning right¡±
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Reference: Annie Duke,
¡°Thinking in Bets¡±.
Write architecture
decision records
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Be explicit
about trade-o?s
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Con?rmation
bias
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Zero risk
bias
Availability
heuristic
Outcome
bias
Self-serving
bias
Con?rmation
bias
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Zero risk
bias
Availability
heuristic
Outcome
bias
Self-serving
bias
Con?rmation
bias
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Zero risk
bias
Availability
heuristic
Outcome
bias
Self-serving
bias
more
Con?rmation
bias
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Zero risk
bias
Availability
heuristic
Outcome
bias
Self-serving
bias
more
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¡°You could be
even more
con?dent.¡±
? 2020 ThoughtWorks
¡°You could be
even more
con?dent.¡± What does
that even
mean?
? 2020 ThoughtWorks
¡°You could be
even more
con?dent.¡± What does
that even
mean?
? 2020 ThoughtWorks
¡°You could be
even more
con?dent.¡± What does
that even
mean?
Do I really
want to?
¡ñ ¡°I¡¯m not ²õ³Ü°ù±ð¡±
¡ñ ¡°I¡¯m not ²õ³Ü°ù±ð¡±
¡ñ Asking questions
¡ñ ¡°I¡¯m not ²õ³Ü°ù±ð¡±
¡ñ Asking questions
¡ñ Changing my mind
¡°Using uncertainty
to our advantage¡±
- Annie Duke
? 2020 ThoughtWorks
How con?dent are you
about your con?dence?
[XConf Brasil 2020] Redefining confidence: cognitive biases in development life
Birgitta B?ckeler
@birgitta410
Obrigada
? 2020 ThoughtWorks

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[XConf Brasil 2020] Redefining confidence: cognitive biases in development life