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Viability PPT Hospitality Round Table Tanzania 10 11 14

PCFC Hotels
PCFC Hotels

Keynote presentation by Guy Wilkinson of Viability Management Consultants about the state of the African hotel industry in November 2014, including countrywide historic performance and future pipeline data.

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www.viability.aewhen diligence is due State of the African Hospitality Industry Keynote Address by Guy Wilkinson, Managing Partner, Viability Management Consultants Hospitality Round Table, Dar es Salaam, 10th November 2014
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Viability Management Consultants ≒ Hospitality and real estate development consultancy ≒ Based in Dubai, established in 2006 ≒ Principals have consulted throughout the Middle East, as well as many countries in Africa: Tanzania (inc Zanzibar), Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda; Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Sudan, Chad; Nigeria ≒ Specialized in providing: Bankable market & 鍖nancial feasibility studies Market studies in a variety of hospitality-related sectors Operator selection and contract negotiations Operational reviews and interim management solutions ≒ Reputation for detailed work; high-quality, well-reasoned, realistic advice ≒ Special thanks to: Philip Wooller of STR, Trevor Ward of W Hospitality Truly an expert consulting company. a most valuable contribution to our knowledge base. All responses from Viability were exceptionally prompt and pertinent.
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due IMF World GDP Growth Forecast Map, 2014 (%)
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Sept/Oct 2013
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due African Middle Class is Growing Source: Deloitte, 2012 At least 75% of population is middle class (de鍖ned as those spending between US$2 and $20 per day) 21-50% Up to 20%
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due UNWTO World Tourist Arrivals & Revenues, 2014 ≒ Almost 1.1 billion tourists worldwide in 2013, up 5% ≒ Asia & Paci鍖c arrivals up 6% followed by Europe & Africa (both 5%) ≒ 1 in 11 jobs worldwide!
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due No Branded Supply 1. Angola 2. Burundi 3. Central African Republic 4. Comoros 5. Democratic Republic of Congo 6. Eritrea 7. Liberia 8. Mauritania 9. Niger 10. Republic of Congo 11. Sierra Leone 12. Somalia 13. South Sudan One African Brand 1. Burkina Faso (1 hotel) 2. Guinea Bissau (1 hotel) 3. Lesotho (2 hotels) 4. Malawi (1 hotel) 5. Rwanda (2 hotels) 6. Swaziland (3 hotels) Hotel Supply & Brand Penetration in Africa, 2014 ≒ Total supply: 460,000 rooms in 54 countries (2013), including ≒ 84,000 from 27 chains as per W Hospitality (2014) NAfricaSubSaharanAfrica
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Maximum 2 International Branded Hotels 1. Bamako 2. Djibouti 3. Khartoum 4. NDjamena 5. Port Gentil 6. Yaound辿 YTD July 2014 Performance Occupancy 65.6% ADR - $190.90 Cities With Limited Branded Supply in Africa 1 2 3 4 6 5
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Occupancy ADR (USD) Actual Performance Key Cities: OCC & ADR US$ - YTD 07 14 Note: STR currently tracks 860 African hotels - 172,500 rooms
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due 30 80 130 180 230 280 330 380 Abuja Boasts The Worlds Highest ADR! (YTD 07 14 US$)
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Supply % Chg Demand % Chg World Cup Arab Spring Arab Spring Rebound Global Financial Crisis Africa Room Supply/Demand % Change 12-Month Moving Average YE 2005 to July 2014
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Africa Hotel Pipeline Total Pipeline 2010-2014 Note: Sample survey from April 2014 of 27 chains/60 brands 16,909 17,038 17,217 18,065 16,449 14,801 13,700 17,109 18,191 23,282 72 75 77 73 73 77 76 100 115 142 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hotels Rooms SSA Rooms N Africa Rooms N Africa Hotels SSA Hotels
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Sub-Regional Breakdown of 2014 Pipeline (% of Rooms) Northern 41% Southern 6% Central 8% Eastern 11% Western 34%
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Africa Hotel Pipeline 2014 Top 10 Countries by Rooms 6,614 4,828 4,703 3,172 2,205 1,541 1,293 1,080 990 914 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Nigeria Morocco Egypt Algeria Libya Tunisia South Africa Ghana Ethiopia Senegal
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Top 10 Countries: % of Pipeline Rooms Under Construction 37 58 83 84 86 72 59 68 47 55 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Nigeria Morocco Egypt Algeria Libya Tunisia South Africa Ghana Ethiopia Senegal
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Africa Hotel Pipeline Top 10 Chains by Rooms 6,248 6,165 5,243 3,499 2,210 2,055 1,587 1,567 1,455 1,129 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Africa Hotel Pipeline Top 10 Brands by Rooms 4,723 4,336 2,116 1,912 1,567 1,437 1,264 1,180 1,154 1,129 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Comparison: GCC 2014 Pipeline - Top 20 Chains by Rooms - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Hilton Starwood Marriott Accor Rotana IHG Millennium Wyndham Hyatt Golden Tulip Rezidor Fairmont Raffles The Address Premier Inn Anjum Viceroy Time Kempinski Bin Majid Four Seasons Others 9,593 7,912 7,707 6,919 6,729 5,480 4,634 3,884 3,678 3,104 3,070 2,500 2,448 1,848 1,743 1,378 1,273 1,259 1,210 1,194 23,560 Source: Viability, June 2014 Data
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due East Africa Pipeline Focus City Country Chain Hotel Rooms Year 1 Addis Ababa Ethiopia Accor Pullman Addis Ababa 316 2017 2 Addis Ababa Ethiopia Best Western Great Abyssinia 161 2014 3 Addis Ababa Ethiopia Best Western Noah 110 2015 4 Addis Ababa Ethiopia Louvre Golden Tulip Addis Ababa 90 2014 5 Addis Ababa Ethiopia Marriott Courtyard by Marriott Addid Ababa 209 2019 6 Addis Ababa Ethiopia Marriott Marriott Executive Apts Addis Ababa 104 2015 7 Amboseli Kenya Minor Elewana Amboseli 16 2014 8 Arusha Tanzania Hyatt Hyatt Regency Arusha 144 2016 9 Bazaruto Mozambique Pestana Pestana Bazaruto Villas 2nd Phasa 30 2015 10 Dar Es Salaam Tanzania Best Western Colosseum 90 2014 11 Dar Es Salaam Tanzania Rotana Dar Es Salaam Rotana 200 2018 12 Dar Es Salaam Tanzania Wyndham Ramada Resort Dar Es Salaam 136 2014 13 Dar Es Salaam Tanzania Wyndham Ramada Encore Dar Es Salaam 116 2014 14 Kigali Rwanda Carlson Rezidor Radisson Blu Kigali 292 2014 15 Kigali Rwanda Carlson Rezidor Park Inn by Radisson Kigali 161 2015 16 Kigali Rwanda Kempinski Kempinski Hotel des Mille Collines 112 2014 17 Kigali Rwanda Marriott Marriott Kigali 254 2015 18 Maputo Mozambique Pestana Pestana Rovuma 66 2015 19 Nairobi Kenya Carlson Rezidor Radisson Blu Nairobi 271 2014 20 Nairobi Kenya Carlson Rezidor Park Inn by Radisson Nairobi Westlands 145 2014 21 Nairobi Kenya Dusit dusitD2 Nairobi 101 2014 22 Nairobi Kenya Hilton Hilton Garden Inn Nairobi 171 2017 23 Zanzibar Tanzania Best Western Zanzibar 26 2014 24 Zanzibar Tanzania Four Seasons Four Seasons Resort Zanzibar 73 tbc 25 Zanzibar Tanzania Hilton DoubleTree by Hilton Stone Town 58 2014 26 Zanzibar Tanzania Hyatt Park Hyatt Stone Town 72 2015 3,524
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due African Hotel Pipeline to create 320,000 New Jobs (2013 Data) 2014, 136,000 , 43% 2015, 87,000 , 27% 2016, 70,000 , 22% 2017 onwards, 27,000 , 8%
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due North-South Differences in Job Creation North Africa ≒ 115,000 jobs in 5 countries ≒ Industry more developed ≒ Pipeline growth slower @ 9% ≒ Hiring trends: Large numbers of junior staff Rapid promotion of most able individuals Sub-Saharan Africa ≒ 165,000 jobs in 23 countries ≒ Industry less developed ≒ Pipeline growth faster @ 23% ≒ Hiring trends: In鍖ux of foreign top management War to attract/retain talented middle management Substantial investment in training ≒ 80% of jobs to be created by the Top Ten hotel chains
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due WTTC Tanzania Report 2014 Highlights 1: Ranking
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due WTTC Tanzania Report 2014 Highlights 2: Employment
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due WTTC Tanzania Report 2014 Highlights 3: Investment
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Thanks for Listening, Questions Please Tel +971 3 344 3734 Fax +971 4 344 0907
www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Contact Viability Management Consultants Guy Wilkinson Managing Partner Viability Management Consultants PO Box 191234 Dubai United Arab Emirates Email: guy@viability.ae Mobile: +971 50 450 6276 Tel: +971 4 344 3734 Fax: +971 4 344 0907 Web site: www.viability.ae

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Viability PPT Hospitality Round Table Tanzania 10 11 14

  • 1. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due State of the African Hospitality Industry Keynote Address by Guy Wilkinson, Managing Partner, Viability Management Consultants Hospitality Round Table, Dar es Salaam, 10th November 2014
  • 2. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Viability Management Consultants ≒ Hospitality and real estate development consultancy ≒ Based in Dubai, established in 2006 ≒ Principals have consulted throughout the Middle East, as well as many countries in Africa: Tanzania (inc Zanzibar), Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda; Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Sudan, Chad; Nigeria ≒ Specialized in providing: Bankable market & 鍖nancial feasibility studies Market studies in a variety of hospitality-related sectors Operator selection and contract negotiations Operational reviews and interim management solutions ≒ Reputation for detailed work; high-quality, well-reasoned, realistic advice ≒ Special thanks to: Philip Wooller of STR, Trevor Ward of W Hospitality Truly an expert consulting company. a most valuable contribution to our knowledge base. All responses from Viability were exceptionally prompt and pertinent.
  • 3. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due IMF World GDP Growth Forecast Map, 2014 (%)
  • 5. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due African Middle Class is Growing Source: Deloitte, 2012 At least 75% of population is middle class (de鍖ned as those spending between US$2 and $20 per day) 21-50% Up to 20%
  • 6. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due UNWTO World Tourist Arrivals & Revenues, 2014 ≒ Almost 1.1 billion tourists worldwide in 2013, up 5% ≒ Asia & Paci鍖c arrivals up 6% followed by Europe & Africa (both 5%) ≒ 1 in 11 jobs worldwide!
  • 7. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due No Branded Supply 1. Angola 2. Burundi 3. Central African Republic 4. Comoros 5. Democratic Republic of Congo 6. Eritrea 7. Liberia 8. Mauritania 9. Niger 10. Republic of Congo 11. Sierra Leone 12. Somalia 13. South Sudan One African Brand 1. Burkina Faso (1 hotel) 2. Guinea Bissau (1 hotel) 3. Lesotho (2 hotels) 4. Malawi (1 hotel) 5. Rwanda (2 hotels) 6. Swaziland (3 hotels) Hotel Supply & Brand Penetration in Africa, 2014 ≒ Total supply: 460,000 rooms in 54 countries (2013), including ≒ 84,000 from 27 chains as per W Hospitality (2014) NAfricaSubSaharanAfrica
  • 8. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Maximum 2 International Branded Hotels 1. Bamako 2. Djibouti 3. Khartoum 4. NDjamena 5. Port Gentil 6. Yaound辿 YTD July 2014 Performance Occupancy 65.6% ADR - $190.90 Cities With Limited Branded Supply in Africa 1 2 3 4 6 5
  • 9. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Occupancy ADR (USD) Actual Performance Key Cities: OCC & ADR US$ - YTD 07 14 Note: STR currently tracks 860 African hotels - 172,500 rooms
  • 10. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due 30 80 130 180 230 280 330 380 Abuja Boasts The Worlds Highest ADR! (YTD 07 14 US$)
  • 11. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Supply % Chg Demand % Chg World Cup Arab Spring Arab Spring Rebound Global Financial Crisis Africa Room Supply/Demand % Change 12-Month Moving Average YE 2005 to July 2014
  • 12. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Africa Hotel Pipeline Total Pipeline 2010-2014 Note: Sample survey from April 2014 of 27 chains/60 brands 16,909 17,038 17,217 18,065 16,449 14,801 13,700 17,109 18,191 23,282 72 75 77 73 73 77 76 100 115 142 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hotels Rooms SSA Rooms N Africa Rooms N Africa Hotels SSA Hotels
  • 13. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Sub-Regional Breakdown of 2014 Pipeline (% of Rooms) Northern 41% Southern 6% Central 8% Eastern 11% Western 34%
  • 14. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Africa Hotel Pipeline 2014 Top 10 Countries by Rooms 6,614 4,828 4,703 3,172 2,205 1,541 1,293 1,080 990 914 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Nigeria Morocco Egypt Algeria Libya Tunisia South Africa Ghana Ethiopia Senegal
  • 15. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Top 10 Countries: % of Pipeline Rooms Under Construction 37 58 83 84 86 72 59 68 47 55 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Nigeria Morocco Egypt Algeria Libya Tunisia South Africa Ghana Ethiopia Senegal
  • 16. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Africa Hotel Pipeline Top 10 Chains by Rooms 6,248 6,165 5,243 3,499 2,210 2,055 1,587 1,567 1,455 1,129 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
  • 17. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Africa Hotel Pipeline Top 10 Brands by Rooms 4,723 4,336 2,116 1,912 1,567 1,437 1,264 1,180 1,154 1,129 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000
  • 18. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Comparison: GCC 2014 Pipeline - Top 20 Chains by Rooms - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Hilton Starwood Marriott Accor Rotana IHG Millennium Wyndham Hyatt Golden Tulip Rezidor Fairmont Raffles The Address Premier Inn Anjum Viceroy Time Kempinski Bin Majid Four Seasons Others 9,593 7,912 7,707 6,919 6,729 5,480 4,634 3,884 3,678 3,104 3,070 2,500 2,448 1,848 1,743 1,378 1,273 1,259 1,210 1,194 23,560 Source: Viability, June 2014 Data
  • 19. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due East Africa Pipeline Focus City Country Chain Hotel Rooms Year 1 Addis Ababa Ethiopia Accor Pullman Addis Ababa 316 2017 2 Addis Ababa Ethiopia Best Western Great Abyssinia 161 2014 3 Addis Ababa Ethiopia Best Western Noah 110 2015 4 Addis Ababa Ethiopia Louvre Golden Tulip Addis Ababa 90 2014 5 Addis Ababa Ethiopia Marriott Courtyard by Marriott Addid Ababa 209 2019 6 Addis Ababa Ethiopia Marriott Marriott Executive Apts Addis Ababa 104 2015 7 Amboseli Kenya Minor Elewana Amboseli 16 2014 8 Arusha Tanzania Hyatt Hyatt Regency Arusha 144 2016 9 Bazaruto Mozambique Pestana Pestana Bazaruto Villas 2nd Phasa 30 2015 10 Dar Es Salaam Tanzania Best Western Colosseum 90 2014 11 Dar Es Salaam Tanzania Rotana Dar Es Salaam Rotana 200 2018 12 Dar Es Salaam Tanzania Wyndham Ramada Resort Dar Es Salaam 136 2014 13 Dar Es Salaam Tanzania Wyndham Ramada Encore Dar Es Salaam 116 2014 14 Kigali Rwanda Carlson Rezidor Radisson Blu Kigali 292 2014 15 Kigali Rwanda Carlson Rezidor Park Inn by Radisson Kigali 161 2015 16 Kigali Rwanda Kempinski Kempinski Hotel des Mille Collines 112 2014 17 Kigali Rwanda Marriott Marriott Kigali 254 2015 18 Maputo Mozambique Pestana Pestana Rovuma 66 2015 19 Nairobi Kenya Carlson Rezidor Radisson Blu Nairobi 271 2014 20 Nairobi Kenya Carlson Rezidor Park Inn by Radisson Nairobi Westlands 145 2014 21 Nairobi Kenya Dusit dusitD2 Nairobi 101 2014 22 Nairobi Kenya Hilton Hilton Garden Inn Nairobi 171 2017 23 Zanzibar Tanzania Best Western Zanzibar 26 2014 24 Zanzibar Tanzania Four Seasons Four Seasons Resort Zanzibar 73 tbc 25 Zanzibar Tanzania Hilton DoubleTree by Hilton Stone Town 58 2014 26 Zanzibar Tanzania Hyatt Park Hyatt Stone Town 72 2015 3,524
  • 20. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due African Hotel Pipeline to create 320,000 New Jobs (2013 Data) 2014, 136,000 , 43% 2015, 87,000 , 27% 2016, 70,000 , 22% 2017 onwards, 27,000 , 8%
  • 21. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due North-South Differences in Job Creation North Africa ≒ 115,000 jobs in 5 countries ≒ Industry more developed ≒ Pipeline growth slower @ 9% ≒ Hiring trends: Large numbers of junior staff Rapid promotion of most able individuals Sub-Saharan Africa ≒ 165,000 jobs in 23 countries ≒ Industry less developed ≒ Pipeline growth faster @ 23% ≒ Hiring trends: In鍖ux of foreign top management War to attract/retain talented middle management Substantial investment in training ≒ 80% of jobs to be created by the Top Ten hotel chains
  • 22. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due WTTC Tanzania Report 2014 Highlights 1: Ranking
  • 23. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due WTTC Tanzania Report 2014 Highlights 2: Employment
  • 24. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due WTTC Tanzania Report 2014 Highlights 3: Investment
  • 25. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Thanks for Listening, Questions Please Tel +971 3 344 3734 Fax +971 4 344 0907
  • 26. www.viability.aewhen diligence is due Contact Viability Management Consultants Guy Wilkinson Managing Partner Viability Management Consultants PO Box 191234 Dubai United Arab Emirates Email: guy@viability.ae Mobile: +971 50 450 6276 Tel: +971 4 344 3734 Fax: +971 4 344 0907 Web site: www.viability.ae