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PBE-CTF the decent exploration for ispg
- 1. THE DECENT EXPLORATION Hade Maulin Sr. Exploration Geologist When YTF is close to find: re-invent Discoveries
- 2. HADE BAKDA MAULIN Education Geology , Padjadjaran University Petroleum Geology, ITB Working Experiences 2020 present Chief of G&G PHE Ogan Komering 2017 2019 Sr Geologist PHE Nunukan Company 2011 2016 Sr. Regional Geologist - PHE WMO 2011 MEA Technical and Portfolio asset PHE Overseas 2008 2010 Exploration Geologist - CPOC Red Sea - Sudan 2007 Paradigm Geophysical Indonesia 2005 2007 BATM Trisakti University North Sumatra, South Sumatra, Central Sumatra, East Java, West Java, Barito, Kutai, Tarakan, Red Sea (Sudan), Sabrata (Libya), Persian Gulf (Qatar) clastic (deltaic system), new venture/frontier/deep water, carbonates and naturally fractured reservoir (basement) 10Basins Several Plays in hade-bakda-maulin hade.maulin@pertamina.com https://tektonesiana.org/
- 3. What is Hydrocarbon Exploration ? Be Technically the Best Be Big & Be Everywhere Elephant Hunting Only Large Acreage Plays Niche Players / Local Expertise Acquisitions buy the discovering company Dont worry, Just Drill, Drill, Drill Only Drill Low Risk Prospects Buy In after Discovery Fire Drill: buy acreage to get in a new play after big discoveries have been made What Drives Exploration? Bob Boyce and Andy Pulham The process of predicting, acquiring, drilling, and discovering hydrocarbon accumulations with sufficient size and deliverability to make money above corporate economic hurdles.
- 4. EXPLORATION, ISNT IT? Anticline Hunting Henry D Rodgers, 1860 1st commentator Sterry Hunt, 1861 1st proclamation The history of petroleum I.C White 1st Geologist Southern Oil Co 1st company to employ geologist Seepages age Petroleum System Dow, 1974 : Source Rock Oil System Perrodon, 1980 : Petroleum System Sir William Logan, 1842 1st known observer Colonel William Drake, 1859 1st driller almost all discovery were found at the anticline with good porosity rock Reservoir Several Discoveries with many dry holes The geologic criteria governing the distribution of pools, and in particular the combined presence of source rocks, reservoirs and seals, generally exhibit a certain geographic extension which is reflected by the formation of a family of pool or even better, a petroleum system, a structured set of natural elements of the same species or having the same function. Meissner, 1984 : Hydrocarbon Machine Sequence which contain all of the elements involved in the process of hydrocarbon generation from source rock to consequent migration and accumulation constitute what may be termed natural geologic hydrocarbon machines. Petroleum System (Magoon & Dow, 1994) Natural system that encompasses pod of active source rock and all related oil and gas and which includes all the geologic element and processes that are essential if a hydrocarbon accumulation is to exist Wallace Gilmore DowLeslie B. Magoon
- 5. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION PBE A method to build and leverage an understanding of the basins and petroleum systems in which we work, and geological plays they contain. The Benefits Better early focus to a range of exploration activity Efficiency improvement More confident decisions Petroleum system understanding forms the basis for the subsequent play focus quantifying the various aspects of the system within each play, and using tool such as common risk segment mapping to highlight sweet spots within each play.
- 6. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION Source: Stig-Arne Kristoffersen
- 8. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION We Have all this We Love to do this We have to Look back
- 9. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION Longley, 2016
- 10. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION Longley, 2016
- 11. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION Longley, 2016
- 13. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION Bob Boyce and Andy Pulham
- 16. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION Active pod Reservoir Trap Seal
- 17. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION COMMON RISK SEGMENT (CRS) The first step is to make 6 individual Risk Element Maps Reservoir: Presence & Effectiveness Charge: Presence & Effectiveness Seal: Presence & Effectiveness The 2nd step is to make individual composites (3) Reservoir, Charge, and Seal i.e. - 2 maps make a 3rd e.g. - Reservoir Presence + Reservoir Effectiveness = Reservoir CRS Map The last step is to make a Final Composite CRS Risk Map i.e. - 3 maps make a 4th Reservoir CRS + Charge CRS + Seal CRS = Final Composite CRS Map
- 18. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION Wicked Tuna Philosophy from various source with some modification
- 19. DISRUPTION IN EXPLORATION The Decent Exploration: When YTF is close to find: re-invent Discoveries (Maulin, 2019) http://claytonchristensen.com/key-concepts/ Agfa, Kodak Digital Camera Smartphone YESTERDAY TODAY FUTURE Ford Honda Wuling or SMK? Prospecting PBE (YTF) Close to Find (CTF) Disruptors incumbents
- 20. WHAT DO WE KNOW? WHERE DO WE KNOW IT? YTF When evaluating prospects and prospect portfolios we should place them in a play context. This gives us strategic information needed to de-risk the play and assess the prospects ability to deliver Scope for Recovery (SFR) volumes. We ultimately can also understand the additional potential (yet-to-find - YTF) in related prospects within the same play or play segment. Yet to Find (YTF) is an estimate of the remaining hydrocarbon potential of a petroleum basin, territory or country. It is a risked estimate of the as yet undiscovered recoverable hydrocarbon resources which are expected to be found in the target area. It is an estimate of both volumes (resources) and risks and therefore highly uncertain. -Alan Foum- YTF = (Total hydrocarbon generated and expelled * (1- migration losses ratio)*recovery factor) (discovered recoverable resources to date) TYF is Future discoveries
- 21. WHAT DO WE KNOW? WHERE DO WE KNOW IT? Maulin, 2019
- 22. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 MEANOOIP/OGIP(MMBOE) Years Of Discovey Play Tipe 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 OOIP/OGIP(MMBOE) Years Of Discovery Onshore vs Offshore 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 OOIP/OGIP(MMBOE) Years Of Discovery Well Discoveries Operator A Operator B OFFSHORE ONSHORE REEFAL THRUST WRENCH Deep water Flat Stage Flat Stage Flat Stage Flat Stage Flat Stage Problem Finding Creaming Curve Flat Stage (example from Meruya Basin) Operator A Operator B Operator A Operator B
- 23. Problem Finding Creaming Curve (example from Ginger & Fielding, 2005)
- 24. CLOSE TO FIND Potensi Hidrokarbon Cekungan Meruya : 150 BBOE Potensi HC sampai Trapped : 15 BBOE Teridentifikasi : 5,5 BBOE ( Field, P/L ) Opportunity : 9,5 BBOE 22.5% of 150 BBOE - identified 33.75 5.5= 28.25 BBOE YTF:
- 25. RESERVES & RESOURCES TERIDENTIFIKASI DI CEKUNGAN MERUYA Potensi Hidrokarbon Cekungan Meruya : 150 BBOE Potensi HC sampai Trapped : 15 BBOE Teridentifikasi : 5,5 BBOE ( Field, P/L ) Opportunity : 9.5 BBOE YTF = (Total hydrocarbon generated and expelled * (1- migration losses ratio)*recovery factor) (discovered recoverable resources to date) = (150 BBOE * (1-0.75)*0.3) (discovered recoverable resources to date) = 12.5 BBOE (5.5 BBOE) = 7 BBOE 28.25 BBOEYTF by England (1994) YTF by Study (2018)
- 26. CLOSE TO FIND Final Composite CRSSealReservoirCharge 27 Solutions 1 = Green 7 = Yellow 19 = Red Maulin, 2019 OUR BELOVED BASIN
- 27. CLOSE TO FIND Maulin, 2019 Area we work at Play identification Lead/Prospects Maps Analogues Total Resources Estimation . We all UNDERESTIMATE our basin OUR BELOVED BASIN COMPLEX TRAP
- 28. CLOSE TO FIND Final CRSSealReservoirChargeCarrier Beds Fact and Assumption 17,5% were loss to Prime Migration 60% were loss before accumulation 1-5 % might stay in carrier beds Basin Init BBOE prime loss (BBOE) Stay at CB (BBOE) 100 17, 5 0,17 OUR BELOVED BASIN COMPLEX TRAP CB TRAP Example in South Meruya Basin: Area we work at Loses 0.175 0.075 0.475 0.05 17.5 7.5 47.5 5 1% stay 0.175 0.075 0.475 0.05 0.775 775 100 Total (BBOE) MMBOE Basin Init (BBOE)
- 29. CLOSE TO FIND ~13.32 ppg
- 30. CLOSE TO FIND Late Pliocene Late Miocene Mid- Miocene DST#5 DST#2 Type III kerogen, 10-15% start to expulsion, tend to stable up to 100% DST record Depth (ft) 5653-5659 8.8 MMCFD, 10 BCPD 7188-7211 H2O 8337-8343 H2O 9503-9509.5 7.9 MMCFD, 48 BCPD 9678-9954 H2O Uplifted? Uplifted?
- 31. CLOSE TO FIND Late Pliocene Late Miocene Mid- Miocene DST#5 DST#2 Type III kerogen, 10-15% start to expulsion, tend to stable up to 100% DST record Depth (ft) 5653-5659 8.8 MMCFD, 10 BCPD 7188-7211 H2O 8337-8343 H2O 9503-9509.5 7.9 MMCFD, 48 BCPD 9678-9954 H2O suppresed? supresi terjadi karena vitrinit terlumuri (impregnated) bitumen atau hidrokarbon mobil (Jones dan Edison, 1979; Hutton dan Cook, 1980; Hutton et al., 1980; Kalkreuth, 1982) Negative Anomaly / Suppression suppresed? HI increase due to additional S2: Migrated HC
- 32. CLOSE TO FIND Structural development: ~Pleistocene
- 33. CLOSE TO FIND Longley, 2016
- 34. CLOSE TO FIND Osadetz & Chen, 2006
- 35. CLOSE TO FIND Prominent, completely filled fill-spill chains evident in the Gippsland Basin, with focused hydrocarbon migration Charge history data show evidence for early major oil charge with oil migrating through major fields via fill-spill chains Where did (and does) this massive volume of hydrocarbons go? Leakage and seepage
- 36. CLOSE TO FIND
- 37. Recommendation: STRATIGRAPHIC PLAY on CTF When you cant reach on a Focus, try to create a nice bokeh -Maulin, 2020-
- 39. 4 EXPLORATION BOLD LINE Liza is probably 2billion recoverable and has led to ~5billion bboe being discovered in the last few years in DW Guyana Many companies turned down the opportunity because they did not like the area and/or they did not believe the amplitude anomaly The same thing has happened in many areas You need to collect ALL your leads and prospects all the time and understand which ones are the special ones GIS-PAX Pty Ltd@2017 The Guyana Exxon Discoveries SHELL Exploration by Structural Play EXXON Stabroek Block nothing big New Idea of Exploration - Seismic approach - Stratigraphic Traps LIZA PROJECT BIG SHOT more than 295 ft (90 m) of oil-bearing sandstone reservoirs. Significant oil discovery with potential recoverable reserves of 800 to 1,400 MMBOE stratigraphic on-laps, ponded turbidites, basin floor fans and Tertiary mass transport complexes. PULL-OUT DONT STOP EXPLORING, START TO THINK DIFFERENTLY IN 4G: GEOLOGY-GEOPHYSICS-GEOCHEM-GEOHYSTORY
- 40. STRATIGRAPHIC PLAY 1. Slope & Basin Floor Deposits
- 41. STRATIGRAPHIC PLAY 41 Golden Zone / Productive zone (Nadeu, 2011) Optimal HC Entrapment Efficiency in Basins
- 42. Magneto (/m脱鼻nito/) is a fictional character appearing in American comic books published by Marvel Comics, commonly in association with the X-Men. Created by writer Stan Lee and artist Jack Kirby, the character first appears in The X-Men #1 (cover-dated Sept. 1963) as an adversary of the X-Men. MAGNETO VS INDIAN HERO https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOJJ26xGytU Indian Hero INSTANT SPONTANEOUS - IMITATE
- 43. SUMMARY In term of Exploration stage, most of Indonesian Basin is considered as Emerging to Mature Basin. The YTF value should be challenging; there are uncertainties on it. Most of Lead/Prospects are addressed to structural while stratigraphic and others still need to be sharpened. PBE is still a proper way to do exploration; explorationists are suggested to looking back at Play focus I introduce Close to Find as an suggestion to point out to what we obviously know in Petroleum System but lack very often in observation: Carrier Beds. The approach needs some basic data (wells and good seismic) and Faithfull geologists to do : Ortho-contour and migration maps Facies study: Facies association, facies architecture, distribution map Pressure study and hopefully; pressure maps Comprehension of carrier beds and Nadeaus Golden Zone can help you most Be Basic: YTF = Identified Prospectivity + Unidentified Prospectivity (all in Risked Volume MMBOE) (Longley, 2015) The Decent Exploration: When YTF is close to find: re-invent Discoveries (Maulin, 2019)